RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted July 22, 2018 Share Posted July 22, 2018 Nothing has changed around here. UPTON 758pm: Next concern is rainfall. Operational ECMWF/HRRR have been forecasting heavy rain bands capable of producing a quick 2-3 inches of rain either just west of or straddling our NE NJ counties, also additional similar rain bands running through parts of western Long Island, the lower Hudson Valley, and SW CT. Have higher confidence in the location of the westernmost band but not those farther east, and since their coverage is not widespread and HREF probabilities of 2+ inches of rain was greatest just west of our area, opted against issuing a flash flood watch. Depending on where these bands set up, will most likely have to issue minor flood advisories, but will still have to watch NYC closely for greater impacts to urban infrastructure and possible flash flood warnings to address any direct impact of that magnitude. As these rain bands ride up into Long Island and southern CT, combo of strong 0-1 km shear/SRH and sfc-based instability with SBCAPE approaching 1000 J/kg may be enough to help produce low- topped tstms capable of producing localized damaging winds or a brief tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tunafish Posted July 22, 2018 Share Posted July 22, 2018 11 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Take all unders. We west Credit where it's due. Guy's been on the west train since day 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted July 22, 2018 Share Posted July 22, 2018 On 7/17/2018 at 10:46 AM, Damage In Tolland said: JB! On 7/17/2018 at 10:54 AM, Damage In Tolland said: One could envision many thousands of trees down from this and it’s a spinner setup On 7/19/2018 at 9:51 AM, Damage In Tolland said: Wondering if this ends up being one of those landphoons we sometimes see with these tropics oriented systems . Can sort of picture that look on radar/sat as it moves northwest on Sunday morning On 7/19/2018 at 10:22 AM, Damage In Tolland said: Zipper low!! 38 minutes ago, tunafish said: Credit where it's due. Guy's been on the west train since day 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted July 22, 2018 Share Posted July 22, 2018 OK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted July 22, 2018 Share Posted July 22, 2018 1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Nothing has changed around here. UPTON 758pm: Next concern is rainfall. Operational ECMWF/HRRR have been forecasting heavy rain bands capable of producing a quick 2-3 inches of rain either just west of or straddling our NE NJ counties, also additional similar rain bands running through parts of western Long Island, the lower Hudson Valley, and SW CT. Have higher confidence in the location of the westernmost band but not those farther east, and since their coverage is not widespread and HREF probabilities of 2+ inches of rain was greatest just west of our area, opted against issuing a flash flood watch. Depending on where these bands set up, will most likely have to issue minor flood advisories, but will still have to watch NYC closely for greater impacts to urban infrastructure and possible flash flood warnings to address any direct impact of that magnitude. As these rain bands ride up into Long Island and southern CT, combo of strong 0-1 km shear/SRH and sfc-based instability with SBCAPE approaching 1000 J/kg may be enough to help produce low- topped tstms capable of producing localized damaging winds or a brief tornado. It’s obvious upton isn’t concerned because they are just too oblivious about how zipper lows work! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 22, 2018 Share Posted July 22, 2018 How did I miss this nugget of a thread! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted July 22, 2018 Share Posted July 22, 2018 How we lookin tonight? Zippity do dah or Oh zip me.....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 22, 2018 Share Posted July 22, 2018 Rain train is east ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 22, 2018 Share Posted July 22, 2018 56 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Rain train is east ! Ya don't say. Dewin the dew today. 72/70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted July 22, 2018 Share Posted July 22, 2018 Decent little event, but the main show was down in MD. Seems like that area has been the bullseye for heavy rain recently. Anyway, bring on the Bahama Blues and afternoon t-storms! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 22, 2018 Share Posted July 22, 2018 17 minutes ago, Hoth said: Decent little event, but the main show was down in MD. Seems like that area has been the bullseye for heavy rain recently. Anyway, bring on the Bahama Blues and afternoon t-storms! Let’s Blue banger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted July 22, 2018 Share Posted July 22, 2018 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Let’s Blue banger Good thing all the rain is west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 22, 2018 Share Posted July 22, 2018 Someone in RI or SE MA will get 4” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted July 22, 2018 Share Posted July 22, 2018 We just had about 45 minutes of RA+ Over .5" last I checked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 22, 2018 Share Posted July 22, 2018 Thinking we see some Florida type storms later on.. The kind where it rains insanely hard for 20 minutes then the sun is back out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted July 22, 2018 Share Posted July 22, 2018 On 7/21/2018 at 7:14 AM, Damage In Tolland said: Head west young man head west. All the mesos say we see very little in SNE other than a few passing downpours tomorrow 20 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Someone in RI or SE MA will get 4” Fire hose setting up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 22, 2018 Share Posted July 22, 2018 29 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Someone in RI or SE MA will get 4” Rain has been slow to progress eastward but it's on the doorstep now. Looks like a nice soaking coming. Just put down fertilizer/weed control yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 22, 2018 Share Posted July 22, 2018 Just had a downpour with some pretty Gusty winds... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted July 22, 2018 Share Posted July 22, 2018 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Let’s Blue banger Amen to that. Actually, I was thinking on my run early this morning how much the sky reminded me of Irene's PRE. Just heavy dark clouds with torrential downpours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted July 22, 2018 Share Posted July 22, 2018 0.43" so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted July 22, 2018 Share Posted July 22, 2018 Dews have been in the 50's and just now starting to rise. Little sprinkle type rain so far. .02". Time to shut the windows and retain the cool dry air in the house before the tropics arrive in the next couple of hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 22, 2018 Share Posted July 22, 2018 1 hour ago, ineedsnow said: Thinking we see some Florida type storms later on.. The kind where it rains insanely hard for 20 5 minutes then the sun is back out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted July 22, 2018 Share Posted July 22, 2018 Decent drink but pretty meh. No wind no thunder. .55" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 22, 2018 Share Posted July 22, 2018 Some good storms developing way South of long island wonder if those make it up here later on.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted July 22, 2018 Share Posted July 22, 2018 Lost power for 4 hours and everyone in Belchertown was either at McDonald's or Dunkin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted July 22, 2018 Share Posted July 22, 2018 2 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Rain has been slow to progress eastward but it's on the doorstep now. Looks like a nice soaking coming. Just put down fertilizer/weed control yesterday. Yup, the eastward progression has stopped and is weakening, I'm going to be so sad if I get nothing. I have been watching this progress eastward since last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 22, 2018 Share Posted July 22, 2018 0.07" Big fail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted July 22, 2018 Share Posted July 22, 2018 Sun breaking out here....is that it or should I expect some tropic thunder downpours this afternoon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 22, 2018 Share Posted July 22, 2018 Did James lose power from the storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted July 22, 2018 Share Posted July 22, 2018 Sun/clouds mixed here, 81F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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