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Hmmm, A July Hybrid Storm? - Possibly


USCAPEWEATHERAF

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Nothing has changed around here. 

UPTON 758pm:

Next concern is rainfall. Operational ECMWF/HRRR have been forecasting heavy rain bands capable of producing a quick 2-3 inches of rain either just west of or straddling our NE NJ counties, also additional similar rain bands running through parts of western Long Island, the lower Hudson Valley, and SW CT. Have higher confidence in the location of the westernmost band but not those farther east, and since their coverage is not widespread and HREF probabilities of 2+ inches of rain was greatest just west of our area, opted against issuing a flash flood watch. Depending on where these bands set up, will most likely have to issue minor flood advisories, but will still have to watch NYC closely for greater impacts to urban infrastructure and possible flash flood warnings to address any direct impact of that magnitude. As these rain bands ride up into Long Island and southern CT, combo of strong 0-1 km shear/SRH and sfc-based instability with SBCAPE approaching 1000 J/kg may be enough to help produce low- topped tstms capable of producing localized damaging winds or a brief tornado.

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On 7/17/2018 at 10:46 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

JB!

 

 

On 7/17/2018 at 10:54 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

One could envision many thousands of trees down from this and it’s a spinner setup 

 

On 7/19/2018 at 9:51 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

Wondering if this ends up being one of those landphoons we sometimes see with these tropics oriented systems . Can sort of picture that look on radar/sat as it moves northwest on Sunday morning 

 

On 7/19/2018 at 10:22 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

Zipper low!!

 

 

38 minutes ago, tunafish said:

Credit where it's due.  Guy's been on the west train since day 1.

 

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1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Nothing has changed around here. 

UPTON 758pm:

Next concern is rainfall. Operational ECMWF/HRRR have been forecasting heavy rain bands capable of producing a quick 2-3 inches of rain either just west of or straddling our NE NJ counties, also additional similar rain bands running through parts of western Long Island, the lower Hudson Valley, and SW CT. Have higher confidence in the location of the westernmost band but not those farther east, and since their coverage is not widespread and HREF probabilities of 2+ inches of rain was greatest just west of our area, opted against issuing a flash flood watch. Depending on where these bands set up, will most likely have to issue minor flood advisories, but will still have to watch NYC closely for greater impacts to urban infrastructure and possible flash flood warnings to address any direct impact of that magnitude. As these rain bands ride up into Long Island and southern CT, combo of strong 0-1 km shear/SRH and sfc-based instability with SBCAPE approaching 1000 J/kg may be enough to help produce low- topped tstms capable of producing localized damaging winds or a brief tornado.

It’s obvious upton isn’t concerned because they are just too oblivious about how zipper lows work! 

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2 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Rain has been slow to progress eastward but it's on the doorstep now.  Looks like a nice soaking coming.  Just put down fertilizer/weed control yesterday.

Yup, the eastward progression has stopped and is weakening, I'm going to be so sad if I get nothing. I have been watching this progress eastward since last night

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