Damage In Tolland Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 28 minutes ago, dendrite said: Don't these things usually tick back east or is that only in winter? That’s Will’ s rule. Ask him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted July 20, 2018 Author Share Posted July 20, 2018 HRRR model is east with the low down over SC, actually shows it heading east of SC and NC and then up north. Operational models might be too far west with the surface low track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 Let’s do our best to send this where we want this to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 It will end up east and screw WNE just like in winter.............lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Let’s do our best to send this where we want this to go. lol the weather does what Mt Tolland wants it to do. All sorts of reasons for things to trend in every direction depending on what's most desirable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 17 minutes ago, dryslot said: It will end up east and screw WNE just like in winter.............lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 45 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Let’s do our best to send this where we want this to go. If you're not willing it, you're not trying hard enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 It’s good practice for the regular season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 1 hour ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: HRRR model is east with the low down over SC, actually shows it heading east of SC and NC and then up north. Operational models might be too far west with the surface low track. WHy are you using the HRRR model for a storm that is 36+hrs away for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 this is trending less and less impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 Just now, qg_omega said: this is trending less and less impressive Was it ever? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 Just now, Hoth said: Was it ever? Yesterdays 12Z euro was pretty good, had 40-50mph gusts for a large section of SNE on Sunday. Kinda went more meh overnight as everything shifted inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 Hell hath no fires like that which would take place should that SW plume ever escape into the circulation over the rest of the contiguous - but I don't think it will, because in a twist ... the heat out west may be causing our recession of heights in the east, thus, it can't. In fact, ...I hypothesize the heat has grown so importantly large its forcing is now actually 'protecting itself' in a sense. What I mean by that is... the ridge node there is taller than tall... It's really approaching the upper tier of Terran physical envelope of what can happen... and immediately down stream of that feature, the flow is being forced into a trough node purely by large scale mass balancing/thermodynamic --> wave spacing... This "trough" doesn't really have a cold decent in the core ... like is traditionally the case with amplifying mid and upper level cold atmospheric events. It may be why the 'core' of it really doesn't plumb much below 576 ..only there very briefly...before it settles into a 580 DAM surface. Mind you...we've had 90 F at 580 heights Thus, it's a kind of "faux" event... a default curvilinear flow instructed by geostrophic balancing between the 594 to 600 DAM ridge in the west, and the one further E of 70 W over the Atlantic (that may or may not retrograde toward NE early next week...)... where in between, we happen to situate. The evidence for this hypothesis may be demonstrated by the operational global model depictions of the synoptic evolution over the next seven days. Particularly over the latter half of that time range, the trough pinches off and tries to retrograde at roughly 35th parallel, but ...what pinches off almost vanishes immediately. It fills unusually fast for typical trough residence/behaviors in closure scenarios... Why? Because I argue the trough - in a holistic sense - isn't really there. It's more an artifact of said defaulting, more so than one carrying along a cold mid and upper level thermodynamic parcel of atmosphere... Interesting... In any case...haven't seen much to dissuade my thinking... away from this is being a fist of a warm sector punching N between ~ 80 and 68W longitudes... As it makes it's way up, it encounters some resistence; more so on the west side over land due to turbulent drag/somewhat less DPs than (obviously) that supplied over the G-string... That subtle but real resistance is enough to cyclonically curl the western side of the total N pushing flow and perhaps gets modestly self-sustaining as a cyclonic entity. But I suspect that ends up lesser an entity compared to the majesty of the 'Bahama blue' pattern its self. Which despite some of these boundary-happy meso gridded models, probably swashes through a warm boundary sometimes Sunday afternoon... Some of these meso tools are trying to spontaneously recurve the pressure pattern around LI ... perhaps detecting additional drag coefficiencies in the llv near SNE ... but either way, they create those features, and then use them to not have a warm front in a pattern that offers 0 hope of stopping one...which is almost comical. Anyway... once the boundary gets through... I don't think we're racking up 8" totals like some of those hefty GFS ideas... It's stressing the model having +2.5" PWAT flows in a +3 or +4SD WAR look like that....or whatever that statistically proves - but it is a robust total anomaly. And having theta-e/DPs over 75 combined with GFS type convective parameterization (I wonder if..) seems to causing the model to puke QPF... But here's the thing... I do think that training axis of tropical turrets can take place in that.... and believe me! You get under one of those, you get a steady diet of high in/hrly rated little pixel bombs. ...and then of course we have to suffer all your posts about how prolific this epic set up was ... I gotta say... I was reading some scientist's web-blog... I think ... Alaskan climatologist? Rings a bell - anyway, he was describing that the ambient Earth geopotential depths are some 20 DM higher than they were around the turn of the 19th to the 20th Century. I don't know if that is really true... but, this aspect in the charts that has become routine as of late, for large circumvallate, 594+DAM ridge domes ...that's flat out new! I've been around in this game for the better part of 25 years... 588 was always that big daddy benchmark.... Now, we are sustaining intermediary geometries at 582 ...in between orbital heights... That's alarming to anyone that peers on this subject matter systemically/scientifically... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said: WHy are you using the HRRR model for a storm that is 36+hrs away for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 2 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said: WHy are you using the HRRR model for a storm that is 36+hrs away for us? C'mon Bob. This is a zipper low. Everyone knows the extended, experimental HRRR handles those the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 Any further west and we’ll get “zip” for rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rimetree Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 So, what's the difference between "Bermuda Blue" and the "regular" blue of today? Is it the contrast with towering cumulus against a blue sky? I would think it wouldn't be all that blue with the humid air. Wasn't sure if it was just a term or an actual phenomena (also, never been to Bermuda) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 1 hour ago, dendrite said: C'mon Bob. This is a zipper low. Everyone knows the extended, experimental HRRR handles those the best. I'm still trying to work out what that is ? I mean ... 'been exposed to plenty of vernacular and euphemisms over the years on both sides of the science margin and I don't recall ever hearing that expression. Take for example.... "House sucker low" ...or, "stem-winder low" Those are euphemisms used to (obviously) describe deeply wound up low pressure; the former means the pressure is so low, it sucks the houses off the earth; that latter, relates to be wound up rightly tightly... But zipper low? So trying to use logic to decode that metaphor ... what do zippers do? They zip up, or, zip down ... separating to mediums of material, or, separating them. So using that baser definition of components for this analysis ... eh hm, what is this low doing that can symbolize either? I think (...though with less certitude) that it is unzipping the atmosphere that is in place - but I only suggest that because it is riding N along the western book-end of the warm front, and as it goes it kind of separates the existing air mass ... but it's weak, I know. The other idea was fiddling with is that the totality of the entity "zips" ...as in, quickly detonates and then races N ... but if so, that's childish and dumb - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 3 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: Any further west and we’ll get “zip” for rain Ah hahaha - better yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 13 minutes ago, rimetree said: So, what's the difference between "Bermuda Blue" and the "regular" blue of today? Is it the contrast with towering cumulus against a blue sky? I would think it wouldn't be all that blue with the humid air. Wasn't sure if it was just a term or an actual phenomena (also, never been to Bermuda) Has to do with sourcing... It's all bullschit human conventions either way ... but Bermuda Blue is the idea of a deep troposphere of warm air that is devoid of more typical impurities you find with higher heat and humidity ... also arriving from an unusual direction - obviously...the tropics. More typically, blues like ...it's Bahama Blues by the way...but Bermuda works too.. anyway, blues like today come/came from Canadian house cleaner air masses. This one's getting a bit old - unusual to be on D4 at this time of year, and not have it be more polluted by now, but hat's 'sides the point. With Bahama blue sky, the air mass is coming from a purified source, but it doesn't bring 'cooler' air per se, it brings warmer ...both for moisture content, and temperature... You end up with very pure blue skies in torrid heat (if enough sun cuts through)... when more typically, 'heat' in general arrives with a pal sky and gray-blue tinted air when peering at a distance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 I love Bahama Blue Skies. See them in Florida with easterly flow. Dews can be in the mid-70s but the sky is Deep Blue with towering CU quickly coming off the ocean. Very rarely see that here but like Tip says if you get a deep flow without any land mass interference you can see them from time to time hope that is what next week brings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 Bermuda blues and Bahama blues are nice, but I prefer Barbados blues way more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted July 20, 2018 Author Share Posted July 20, 2018 I was using the HRRR for the short-term impacts on the low in the southeast CONUS. I was seeing if the western model tracks would be correct. The area of low pressure remains broad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 Another couple runs and the low will end up abroad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 1 hour ago, Cyclone-68 said: Any further west and we’ll get “zip” for rain We have a winner! Now we know why it's called a zipper low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 28 minutes ago, dendrite said: Bermuda blues and Bahama blues are nice, but I prefer Barbados blues way more. Sure you don't mean Barbiturate blues ...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ct_yankee Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: Sure you don't mean Barbiturate blues ...? No, those are Reds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted July 20, 2018 Author Share Posted July 20, 2018 Lowest pressures are found over Charleston, SC, a low is forming in this location, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 13 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Lowest pressures are found over Charleston, SC, a low is forming in this location, You haven’t been this excited since your 60” call for the cape in the March snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 30 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Has to do with sourcing... It's all bullschit human conventions either way ... but Bermuda Blue is the idea of a deep troposphere of warm air that is devoid of more typical impurities you find with higher heat and humidity ... also arriving from an unusual direction - obviously...the tropics. More typically, blues like ...it's Bahama Blues by the way...but Bermuda works too.. anyway, blues like today come/came from Canadian house cleaner air masses. This one's getting a bit old - unusual to be on D4 at this time of year, and not have it be more polluted by now, but hat's 'sides the point. With Bahama blue sky, the air mass is coming from a purified source, but it doesn't bring 'cooler' air per se, it brings warmer ...both for moisture content, and temperature... You end up with very pure blue skies in torrid heat (if enough sun cuts through)... when more typically, 'heat' in general arrives with a pal sky and gray-blue tinted air when peering at a distance. Yeah the past couple days have the look in the mountains of a Canadian air source, where from Mt Mansfield in VT, it looks like you can touch MWN over in NH. It's that clear...as low dews typically are with less water vapor in the surface layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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