WintersComing Posted July 18, 2018 Share Posted July 18, 2018 2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Depends upon which model we choose to believe, Good point....EURO up the Hudson....GFS over the Cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted July 18, 2018 Author Share Posted July 18, 2018 1 minute ago, WintersComing said: Good point....EURO up the Hudson....GFS over the Cape Models showing several lows developing along the Gulf Stream, watch these lows blow up along the Gulf Stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted July 18, 2018 Share Posted July 18, 2018 6 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Models showing several lows developing along the Gulf Stream, watch these lows blow up along the Gulf Stream. All that is left is the polar jet phase for a monster.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted July 18, 2018 Share Posted July 18, 2018 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: All that is left is the polar jet phase for a monster.... That and a 40 + degree temp drop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted July 18, 2018 Author Share Posted July 18, 2018 1 minute ago, WintersComing said: That and a 40 + degree temp drop that would be awful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted July 18, 2018 Author Share Posted July 18, 2018 I think folks will be very surprised when they check the visible satellite imagery on Sunday morning this weekend in regards to the surface low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 18, 2018 Share Posted July 18, 2018 I bet they will be shocked when they see an EC low moving up into the northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted July 18, 2018 Share Posted July 18, 2018 I have a triathlon Sunday...interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 18, 2018 Share Posted July 18, 2018 11 minutes ago, amarshall said: I have a triathlon Sunday...interesting. Beer, Scallops and surfing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted July 18, 2018 Share Posted July 18, 2018 35 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Beer, Scallops and surfing? Ha. Yomechas olympic in Middleboro. I've been training months for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 18, 2018 Share Posted July 18, 2018 3 minutes ago, amarshall said: Ha. Yomechas olympic in Middleboro. I've been training months for this. Nice place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 19, 2018 Share Posted July 19, 2018 AWT.. Spinners! anomalous low level jet will provide elevated instability. Further more low level inversion weakens in approaching warm sector as dew pts climb into the low 70s. Thus low LCLs combined with strong low level shear vicinity of warm front will have to be watched for possible rotating T-storms late Sat night into Sun morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 19, 2018 Share Posted July 19, 2018 GFS never gets the warm front through up here. 50s most of the day Sunday with rain. Blech. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 19, 2018 Share Posted July 19, 2018 1 hour ago, dendrite said: GFS never gets the warm front through up here. 50s most of the day Sunday with rain. Blech. Glad we ain’t live there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 19, 2018 Share Posted July 19, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 19, 2018 Share Posted July 19, 2018 Sort of comes across as though folks are already tinting their perceptions of this thing toward the following but ... imho this thing really isn't about a hybrid cyclone scenario. This is the reactivation of an old frontalysis into warm frontogenesis taking place at a deep latitude along the lower EC. Then...because of huge changes taking place at very large synoptic scales.. ultimately, that is instructing said feature N up the coast. What typically happens: As that flow initially punches N it will have low/no resistance out over the waters immediately astride the coast/near 70 W.. Meanwhile, the air mass over the EC does offer some viscosity/resistance ...if purely from Ekman/BL effects and turbulent drag.. That flow rate differential causes the cyclonic curl, as the west end of the southerly jet at lower levels sags/"hooks" But it's unclear at best whether that curl will have a centroid convective mass that starts lowering surface pressure and triggering the cyclostrophic flow and all that fun happy stuff/physics... The curl would happen anyway... I think if one saw that on the charts and closed isobar or two, they may not be aware of that process causing that...and, because it would intrinsically have neutral thermal variation in its midst ..that may cause a faux impression of a warm core. That said, it could still take place. That's all likely to establish at least a weak cyclonic feature moving N ... whether it can additionally acquire baroclinic or barotropic physics, ...If either did, yeah I would think the warm phases would be favored... But by and large this is just a warm blast convulsively exploding N along the coast in respond to one of the most impressive WAR tsunamis I've ever seen. I mean... jesus with closed 600 DAM heights N of Bermuda, and 594 contouring bursting west like a time-lapse of a pregnant woman's belly. That pattern is a womb of torridity by the way... But can you imagine the fury if a hurricane were approaching the Bahamas along that SW edge of that surface WAR ..oh, Monday'ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted July 19, 2018 Share Posted July 19, 2018 On 7/17/2018 at 2:16 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: ‘Envisions’ and delusions, such a fine line. As Bodhidharma once said" Not creating delusions is enlightenment" And he also said "WAR pushes rain west at times, other times not so much" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted July 19, 2018 Share Posted July 19, 2018 14 hours ago, dryslot said: I bet they will be shocked when they see an EC low moving up into the northeast. A once in a 1000 year event??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 19, 2018 Share Posted July 19, 2018 58 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Sort of comes across as though folks are already tinting their perceptions of this thing toward the following but ... imho this thing really isn't about a hybrid cyclone scenario. This is the reactivation of an old frontalysis into warm frontogenesis taking place at a deep latitude along the lower EC. Then...because of huge changes taking place at very large synoptic scales.. ultimately, that is instructing said feature N up the coast. What typically happens: As that flow initially punches N it will have low/no resistance out over the waters immediately astride the coast/near 70 W.. Meanwhile, the air mass over the EC does offer some viscosity/resistance ...if purely from Ekman/BL effects and turbulent drag.. That flow rate differential causes the cyclonic curl, as the west end of the southerly jet at lower levels sags/"hooks" But it's unclear at best whether that curl will have a centroid convective mass that starts lowering surface pressure and triggering the cyclostrophic flow and all that fun happy stuff/physics... The curl would happen anyway... I think if one saw that on the charts and closed isobar or two, they may not be aware of that process causing that...and, because it would intrinsically have neutral thermal variation in its midst ..that may cause a faux impression of a warm core. That said, it could still take place. That's all likely to establish at least a weak cyclonic feature moving N ... whether it can additionally acquire baroclinic or barotropic physics, ...If either did, yeah I would think the warm phases would be favored... But by and large this is just a warm blast convulsively exploding N along the coast in respond to one of the most impressive WAR tsunamis I've ever seen. I mean... jesus with closed 600 DAM heights N of Bermuda, and 594 contouring bursting west like a time-lapse of a pregnant woman's belly. That pattern is a womb of torridity by the way... But can you imagine the fury if a hurricane were approaching the Bahamas along that SW edge of that surface WAR ..oh, Monday'ish Agree with your synopsis of this system John. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 19, 2018 Share Posted July 19, 2018 23 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: A once in the last 6 mos event??? Yes, For sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted July 19, 2018 Share Posted July 19, 2018 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Yes, For sure. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 19, 2018 Share Posted July 19, 2018 Wondering if this ends up being one of those landphoons we sometimes see with these tropics oriented systems . Can sort of picture that look on radar/sat as it moves northwest on Sunday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted July 19, 2018 Share Posted July 19, 2018 Shocker.....GFS came west to the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted July 19, 2018 Share Posted July 19, 2018 Is there any kind of previous event that would compare to the storm this weekend we might remember? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 19, 2018 Share Posted July 19, 2018 15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Wondering if this ends up being one of those landphoons we sometimes see with these tropics oriented systems . Can sort of picture that look on radar/sat as it moves northwest on Sunday morning Enjoy the warm front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 19, 2018 Share Posted July 19, 2018 14 minutes ago, dendrite said: Enjoy the warm front. Zipper low!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted July 19, 2018 Share Posted July 19, 2018 firenados, landphoons, and zipper lows.....it’s a dangerous world we live in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted July 19, 2018 Share Posted July 19, 2018 4 hours ago, dendrite said: GFS never gets the warm front through up here. 50s most of the day Sunday with rain. Blech. Big Nascar Race at Loudon on Sunday, this would not be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted July 19, 2018 Share Posted July 19, 2018 Can someone explain to me and many lurking newbies what exactly a WAR is? Warm Air Return? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewbeer Posted July 19, 2018 Share Posted July 19, 2018 West Atlantic Ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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