USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted July 16, 2018 Share Posted July 16, 2018 Models have been hinting at a potential coastal storm with some tropical characteristics hitting the Cape and Islands sometime this Saturday or Sunday. GFS soundings have 50-knot surface winds at hours 120-134 over Nantucket. The track will determine who sees highest impacts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted July 16, 2018 Author Share Posted July 16, 2018 Models show a warm day on Saturday with 50-knot winds, I think we may have a modeled tropical storm on our hands Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted July 16, 2018 Share Posted July 16, 2018 Things that make ya go ‘hmmm’. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 16, 2018 Share Posted July 16, 2018 which model would this be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 16, 2018 Share Posted July 16, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted July 16, 2018 Author Share Posted July 16, 2018 Early morning runs of the EURO and GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HimoorWx Posted July 16, 2018 Share Posted July 16, 2018 52 minutes ago, dendrite said: which model would this be? I think it is the GSF (Gulf Stream Fantasy) model. It is the same model that showed Chris reaching 140 mph and the Red Sox playing .900 ball for the rest of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 16, 2018 Share Posted July 16, 2018 48 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Early morning runs of the EURO and GFS Cool. Can you post a map supporting your reasoning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted July 16, 2018 Author Share Posted July 16, 2018 This forecast model was the GFS 6z model this morning, the 12z run has backed off from now. This image is the low-level profile of wind for Nantucket in the next 7 days. You can see the wind spike to 50 knots just above the surface around 12z of the 22nd of July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 16, 2018 Share Posted July 16, 2018 Joe bastardi posted about it.. guessing that's where this came from Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 16, 2018 Share Posted July 16, 2018 NWS actually giving it a mention in their discussion now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 16, 2018 Share Posted July 16, 2018 6 hours ago, dendrite said: which model would this be? He is practicing his winter weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted July 17, 2018 Author Share Posted July 17, 2018 18z GFS back on with the tropical storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted July 17, 2018 Share Posted July 17, 2018 29 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: 18z GFS back on with the tropical storm It’s cutoff over the GL pinched between the pna and war. Hopefully it can hold off for a decent weekend though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted July 17, 2018 Author Share Posted July 17, 2018 Surface low still develops east of Hatteras, NC sometime in the 4.5 to 5 day range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 17, 2018 Share Posted July 17, 2018 2 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Surface low still develops east of Hatteras, NC sometime in the 4.5 to 5 day range Euro pastes us Sunday with 40-50 mph gusts on the coasts and inches of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted July 17, 2018 Author Share Posted July 17, 2018 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Euro pastes us Sunday with 40-50 mph gusts on the coasts and inches of rain Is it tropical in nature or hyrbid? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 17, 2018 Share Posted July 17, 2018 11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Euro pastes us Sunday with 40-50 mph gusts on the coasts and inches of rain JB! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted July 17, 2018 Author Share Posted July 17, 2018 NAM and GFS are picking up on this surface low too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted July 17, 2018 Author Share Posted July 17, 2018 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: JB! JB sighting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted July 17, 2018 Author Share Posted July 17, 2018 Kevin, this could be one of those situations where the low intensifies from both the ocean water and the baroclinic energy from the upper level negatively tilted trough orientation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 17, 2018 Share Posted July 17, 2018 5 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Kevin, this could be one of those situations where the low intensifies from both the ocean water and the baroclinic energy from the upper level negatively tilted trough orientation One could envision many thousands of trees down from this and it’s a spinner setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted July 17, 2018 Share Posted July 17, 2018 I thought all of the rain was going to be to the west of us due to the building WAR???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted July 17, 2018 Author Share Posted July 17, 2018 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: One could envision many thousands of trees down from this and it’s a spinner setup A sneaky system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 17, 2018 Share Posted July 17, 2018 Boarding up as I type this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted July 17, 2018 Share Posted July 17, 2018 58 minutes ago, dendrite said: Boarding up as I type this. stay safe out there, this one's sneakily feeding off the gulf stream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted July 17, 2018 Share Posted July 17, 2018 We had a similar no name storm in July 97 (not bertha 96) Produced 50mph gusts on LI and inches of rain. Minor tree damage. My main memory of the event is tremendous wave heights and beach erosion. Some of the biggest summer wave heights I have ever seen and I have been at the beach pretty much every summer day since I was a kid in the 80s. The entire beach was under water to the boardwalk something that only happens during tropical strikes and severe nor'easters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted July 17, 2018 Share Posted July 17, 2018 2 hours ago, dendrite said: Boarding up as I type this. You could board up quicker by not typing...not much time left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted July 17, 2018 Share Posted July 17, 2018 3 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said: I thought all of the rain was going to be to the west of us due to the building WAR???? ‘Envisions’ and delusions, such a fine line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 17, 2018 Share Posted July 17, 2018 2 hours ago, dendrite said: Boarding up as I type this. Stay safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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