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Winter 2018-19 Is Coming

WxUSAF

By WxUSAF,
in Mid Atlantic

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frd

frd

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

This is the control run from the weeklies. Monthly run comes out at the beginning of the month I think... Was mostly a banter post.

 


Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G920A using Tapatalk
 

 

I see OK, interesting progression globally.

Way to early to draw conclusions, except to take note of the progression itself, and compare down the line to other runs.

 

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Not really.  Decent DEC, and a mehtastic Jan & Feb.  Thank god those long range models are rarely right.

CFS has shown AN precip for DJF for like 20+ runs in a row. This is yesterday's run but they all have been similar lately. Pretty much a classic nino anomaly placement. Just ignore the temp panels and pretend it's all snow. lol

cfs-mon_01_apcpna_multimonth_us_3.png

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Eskimo Joe

Eskimo Joe

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

CFS has shown AN precip for DJF for like 20+ runs in a row. This is yesterday's run but they all have been similar lately. Pretty much a classic nino anomaly placement. Just ignore the temp panels and pretend it's all snow. lol

 

I'm anxious probably the most about December.  I'd love to see a 6" - 10" Christmas snow this year.  

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Vice-Regent said:

With global temps like this you will be waiting a long time. As well the caveat of the Antarctica see-saw effect.

GFS_anomaly_timeseries_global.png

And yet it will still snow. Go figure.

Do you think this year you can take the Global Warming crap to where it belongs https://www.americanwx.com/bb/forum/18-climate-change/ and quit mucking up our threads? Please? Pretty please? Pretty please with a cherry on top?

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frd

frd

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, Vice-Regent said:

With global temps like this you will be waiting a long time. As well the caveat of the Antarctica see-saw effect.

GFS_anomaly_timeseries_global.png

Well, believe it or not ,Canada has cooled to the point where our neighbor to the North is now below normal. Not sure how this plays out in October and November .

As for precip the battle zone continues with above normal precip. As the seasonal changes start to evolve with the long wave patterns in the NH , the onset of a weak El Nino and the continued decline of solar as we approach the winter solstice maybe we can better understand the coming winter.  

 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

And yet it will still snow. Go figure.

Do you think this year you can take the Global Warming crap to where it belongs https://www.americanwx.com/bb/forum/18-climate-change/ and quit mucking up our threads? Please? Pretty please? Pretty please with a cherry on top?

My money is on NO... because he is one of those conceited "I told you so/I know better then EVERYONE" people who thinks his mission is life is to annoy the crap out of all of us until we see things his way.  Never mind the fact that many of us here agree that warming is a problem or the fact that whining about it on here will do absolutely NOTHING productive about it... that won't stop him because above all else he lacks any semblance of perspective.  

Can we just have a mod tag this to the end all all of his posts!!!

 

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

If it wants to snow it will snow . Maybe a early season surprise will kick it off... a la 1979 

 

Screenshot_20180923-185124_Drive.jpg

Or preferably a October 2011 redux :snowing:

Remember that 79 snow well. Going to Owings Mills High at the time and believe we saw 3 to 4 inches. Had me psyched for a great winter. Needless to say the winter was a complete dud.

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frd

frd

Posted
Posted
43 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Remember that 79 snow well. Going to Owings Mills High at the time and believe we saw 3 to 4 inches. Had me psyched for a great winter. Needless to say the winter was a complete dud.

Early season snow is a bad thing.

I read and experienced snowfall prior to Dec 15 th of 4 inches or more always seems to lead to an above average season. 

For example Nov. 2002 had a steady advance in snow cover and that early Dec snowfall. not always accurate but many times it does work well. 

I recall reading from Weatherfella many years  ago, that looking at Canada in Nov can give hints as to where the coldest outbreaks might be going on later in the season.

Of interest as well is November and how much snowfall advances here in the US including snow cover. That has implications for the upcoming Decembers many times

We have had a couple super cold outbreaks here recently but have lacked the snowcover to hit record lows and also lacked the moisture as well to cause any snowfall during the coldest part of the invading air mass. 

 

 

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Vice-Regent

Vice-Regent

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, H2O said:

can you tell me what paint chips taste like?

People always get salty about this information. You are a funny man but not very charming. I did not mention global warming but people are assuming that I am pushing an agenda because James Hansen is my profile pic. We are way past the point of being able to pretend that global warming is not already trashing our snowfall totals.

The stakes are too high. I understand. Denial is easy to fall into. The weather weenies would die without significant annual snowfalls.

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pasnownut

pasnownut

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said:

People always get salty about this information. You are a funny man but not very charming. I did not mention global warming but people are assuming that I am pushing an agenda because James Hansen is my profile pic. We are way past the point of being able to pretend that global warming is not already trashing our snowfall totals.

We are also past the point of needing to remind weather hobbyists/mets/pros whatevs.... that in every post you make that global warming is real....

No matter what your version of real is......

That makes you overbearing and more of an alarmist, which seriously diminished any credibility you try to establish.....

just sayin ^_^

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Can we start with less of you?

Guess his answer was a NO. 

 

1 hour ago, Vice-Regent said:

We should all get familiar with the term "Compassionate de-growth" and embrace a future where our lives are more fulfilling because we have less.

I think most of us could get on board with 'Compassionate de-posting' and I know we could fully embrace having a little less of you.  

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HighStakes

HighStakes

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

Remember that 79 snow well. Going to Owings Mills High at the time and believe we saw 3 to 4 inches. Had me psyched for a great winter. Needless to say the winter was a complete dud.

I was going to Owings Mills elementary at the time. Lol. I think that was the first year Owings Mills high was open. I remember that morning very well waiting at the bus stop with snow on the ground. 

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pasnownut

pasnownut

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, mattie g said:

October snow sucks for every reason one could think of. Let’s give it a miss.

x2

We'll just take some typical October fall w/ a couple dashes of indian summer and refreshing cool/cold fronts to help with the anticipation of the first flakes to show up inside of 240hrs on the maps.  We can all enjoy fall festivities with a little (lot) of spiced cider, Octoberfest of your choice, or some good ol' bourbon to pass the time in search of the first flakes.  

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pasnownut

pasnownut

Posted
Posted

Thought i'd take a peak at the maps and speaking of first flakes....will be in northern PA to celebrate my 25th anniversary at Cedar Run B&B with my lovely wife and looks like i get a little something extra from ol' mo nature.  While this likely doesnt verify, its nice to see blue showing up close to home.  Will trend warmer as we get closer, but thats fine.  Steppin down is good by me.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_43.png

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GramaxRefugee

GramaxRefugee

Posted
Posted

I sure remember the 10/1079 snow, and it was the first game of the Orioles/Pirates World Series.

Os dominated first 3 and then fell apart to lose in 7. The unhittable Kent Tekulve, Pirates reliever. (Not sure I spelled that right. Pronounced tee-KUL-vee)

Remember the TV guy (possibly Vin Scully) joking that he looked outside in the morning and went downstairs to buy a paper to make sure this was really Baltimore. 

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