Winter 2018-19 Is Coming

[Cobalt]

Snow cover in the NH seems to be getting off to a good start

 

[Wonderdog]

21 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

WMO ENSO Update

 

 Hopefully with no La Nina this Winter, we can experience a winter with multiple chances to track storms!

[psuhoffman]

7 hours ago, Wonderdog said:

 Hopefully with no La Nina this Winter, we can experience a winter with multiple chances to track storms!

Now you've done it. We will have threat after threat and be under numerous warnings and they will all bust into 33/rain. 

[Maestrobjwa]

3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Now you've done it. We will have threat after threat and be under numerous warnings and they will all bust into 33/rain. 

Wonder if that's how it went down the last time we had a neutral after a 2 niñas...lol My expectations for this winter are so low that it's hard to imagine being too disappointed...I'm putting my cards in 2019-20 winter with a mod Niño! 

Now doesn't the hurricane activity mean that any Niño we get this year at all is gonna be really weak? (Or is it related at all? I was thinking in terms of the wind shear and such...Nino is bad for hurricanes, right?)

[frd]

51 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Wonder if that's how it went down the last time we had a neutral after a 2 niñas...lol My expectations for this winter are so low that it's hard to imagine being too disappointed...I'm putting my cards in 2019-20 winter with a mod Niño! 

Now doesn't the hurricane activity mean that any Niño we get this year at all is gonna be really weak? (Or is it related at all? I was thinking in terms of the wind shear and such...Nino is bad for hurricanes, right?)

2019 - 20 might be better :-)

Seriously though the JAMSTEC changed tunes with it's most recent update going warm. That  was a bummer.  Also, going for a stronger El Nino as well. 

Interesting thing is previously it had Northern Canada and other areas  reddish in the color scale, , maybe a sign of blocking - temp wise -  now,  I am not so sure as that flipped too.  

It  is very early to make calls yet, but I like consistency and this flip well, is a  concern to me.  Have to see what the Euro does in it's next update.  I believe we are at two in a row from the Euro with a good look for us.   

[psuhoffman]

It seems that whenever the solar cycle does reach its minimum shortly after there tends to be a blockbuster year. And it's not totally enso dependent. 2010 was the perfect storm of a solar minimum and perfect enso. But 1996 pulled it off with a Nina. 1977s unfavorable enso might have prevented a snowier outcome to a brutal cold winter. The minimum in the mid 60s delivered. But what most has in common was the nao moreso then enso. So maybe just not having a crap enso state is enough. Problem is we don't know if the cycle has bottomed or not. Is the "big year" this year or next. I think there is likely one coming but it might not be this winter. But I see no reasons to say for sure it's not or that this year can't at least be ok even if it's not. 

[psuhoffman]

3 hours ago, frd said:

2019 - 20 might be better :-)

Seriously though the JAMSTEC changed tunes with it's most recent update going warm. That  was a bummer.  Also, going for a stronger El Nino as well. 

Interesting thing is previously it had Northern Canada and other areas  reddish in the color scale, , maybe a sign of blocking - temp wise -  now,  I am not so sure as that flipped too.  

It  is very early to make calls yet, but I like consistency and this flip well, is a  concern to me.  Have to see what the Euro does in it's next update.  I believe we are at two in a row from the Euro with a good look for us.   

The climate models are garbage at this range. They flip month to month. They are based on predictions on top of predictions. Guesses at the myriad of factors that influence the pattern. We know darn well we can't get anything past 10 days accurately even at the general pattern level so worrying about several months away is silly. 

Don't confuse my post for being a tenman type shot at models. They are valuable in other ways and the effort at seasonal is noble and hopefully someday will yield results but we aren't there yet. With educated guesses at major drivers like enso we can use analogs to get "some" idea what the winter might be like. Sometimes when things line up all one way it's easier to say. Nina gonna suck for instance. But most times it's murky at best. 

[frd]

12 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

It seems that whenever the solar cycle does reach its minimum shortly after there tends to be a blockbuster year. And it's not totally enso dependent. 2010 was the perfect storm of a solar minimum and perfect enso. But 1996 pulled it off with a Nina. 1977s unfavorable enso might have prevented a snowier outcome to a brutal cold winter. The minimum in the mid 60s delivered. But what most has in common was the nao moreso then enso. So maybe just not having a crap enso state is enough. Problem is we don't know if the cycle has bottomed or not. Is the "big year" this year or next. I think there is likely one coming but it might not be this winter. But I see no reasons to say for sure it's not or that this year can't at least be ok even if it's not. 

I agree, good thoughts. 

I know we are still dropping down in the solar cycle and not sure, as I have not checked , when we are suppose to hit the bottom and whether there is a lag effect.

I am sure the winter outlooks ( some ) will take this into this account and explore it in more detail.  The QBO is fascinating of itself , and that will play a role as well. 

I read that the El Nino is not going to be as robust and that some feel the Eastern regions are really going to warm up. I am not sure about that though. I read here on various forums that 

Some members,  in other regional boards,  feel that this El Nino will be weak, and because of that it will lead to more Miller B's and less snow for the Mid Atlantic . Who knows for sure. On the opposite spectrum what if forcing in the Pac is Modakii iun nature you get a different look . And then you have what Ventrice talks about, which is  the low frequency forcing . A lot to consider.  

 

[Bob Chill]

I'm fairly optimistic about the upcoming winter. Should be enough of an enso influence to deliver an active STJ at times. Just a wag but I'm leaning AN temps for DJF but that doesn't mean no snow. I'd be surprised if we don't get at least 1 widespread warning level event. 

Still 1-2 months away from seasonal guidance giving us some believable insight on general high latitude patterns. My gut is another dominant +ao/nao winter is unlikely.  I'm expecting the strat to not look hostile in Nov/Dec as well. We'll know soon enough. Looking forward to the first freeze. 

[frd]

36 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm fairly optimistic about the upcoming winter. Should be enough of an enso influence to deliver an active STJ at times. Just a wag but I'm leaning AN temps for DJF but that doesn't mean no snow. I'd be surprised if we don't get at least 1 widespread warning level event. 

Still 1-2 months away from seasonal guidance giving us some believable insight on general high latitude patterns. My gut is another dominant +ao/nao winter is unlikely.  I'm expecting the strat to not look hostile in Nov/Dec as well. We'll know soon enough. Looking forward to the first freeze. 

Hey Bob I heard the forming PV already took a hit , bit unusual. 

and then there is this:

 

 

[Bob Chill]

6 hours ago, frd said:

Hey Bob I heard the forming PV already took a hit , bit unusual. 

and then there is this:

 

 

Good stuff. Would go a long ways to not start met winter off with a blue ball in the strat and raging +ao/nao. It's happened so often recently that it makes you start to think it's normal. I personally hate wasting December and then chasing the fabled SSW event. We're at the point now where another really strong strat PV and strong +ao/nao would be abnormal. 

Just a couple basic assumptions like having some semblance of an active STJ and unhostile high latitudes would point towards a better than normal shot at climo+ snowfall. Hopefully by late November we're looking at long range guidance showing an Aleutian low and -ao on the panels. Northern stream dominated progressive patterns are getting pretty old. 

[poolz1]

 

[pasnownut]

23 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

 

I like those tendencies....alot.

[Cobalt]

 CFS is hopefully off its rocker

 

[CAPE]

Might have to cancel that -AO order. Not sure its even possible without a rapid increase in Eurasian snow cover during October.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On ‎9‎/‎15‎/‎2018 at 2:21 PM, Bob Chill said:

I'm fairly optimistic about the upcoming winter. Should be enough of an enso influence to deliver an active STJ at times. Just a wag but I'm leaning AN temps for DJF but that doesn't mean no snow. I'd be surprised if we don't get at least 1 widespread warning level event. 

Still 1-2 months away from seasonal guidance giving us some believable insight on general high latitude patterns. My gut is another dominant +ao/nao winter is unlikely.  I'm expecting the strat to not look hostile in Nov/Dec as well. We'll know soon enough. Looking forward to the first freeze. 

The only potential mitigating factor for you guys is that the el nino is very likely to be weak, which means that we may see the n stream be more prevalent.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

On ‎9‎/‎15‎/‎2018 at 11:06 AM, frd said:

I agree, good thoughts. 

I know we are still dropping down in the solar cycle and not sure, as I have not checked , when we are suppose to hit the bottom and whether there is a lag effect.

I am sure the winter outlooks ( some ) will take this into this account and explore it in more detail.  The QBO is fascinating of itself , and that will play a role as well. 

I read that the El Nino is not going to be as robust and that some feel the Eastern regions are really going to warm up. I am not sure about that though. I read here on various forums that 

Some members,  in other regional boards,  feel that this El Nino will be weak, and because of that it will lead to more Miller B's and less snow for the Mid Atlantic . Who knows for sure. On the opposite spectrum what if forcing in the Pac is Modakii iun nature you get a different look . And then you have what Ventrice talks about, which is  the low frequency forcing . A lot to consider.  

 

Its possible, but you guys still usually do well in those years...just better in moderate events.

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Might have to cancel that -AO order. Not sure its even possible without a rapid increase in Eurasian snow cover during October.

I feel that indicator is just one small piece to the puzzle, which is supported by its struggles in recent years.

[frd]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its possible, but you guys still usually do well in those years...just better in moderate events.

LOL,  I was referring to you Ray, and thanks for the reply.  I am eagerly awaiting on yours and Isotherm's winter forecasts.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, frd said:

LOL,  I was referring to you Ray, and thanks for the reply.  I am eagerly awaiting on yours and Isotherm's winter forecasts.  

Tom has a new NAO indicator that has worked well.

[EastCoast NPZ]

30 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Might have to cancel that -AO order. Not sure its even possible without a rapid increase in Eurasian snow cover during October.

Good thing that snow- cover advance theory has repeatedly failed in recent years.

[frd]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Tom has a new NAO indicator that has worked well.

Thats great, on a side note I have heard various things from mets regarding the configuration of SSTs in the North Atlantic and the coming Winter's dominant NAO phase. Some say cold / warm / cold equal a - NAO signal where others have the opposite configuration, some seem to look at the Newfoundland cold pool as well for indications. Do you put much weight on the Northwest Atlantic SST profile when you look at the winter's possible NAO phase?     

[CAPE]

21 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I feel that indicator is just one small piece to the puzzle, which is supported by its struggles in recent years.

lol I was being sarcastic. Cohen's theory likely has a very weak correlation at best.

Personally I think the guy is selling snake oil.

[40/70 Benchmark]

21 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

lol I was being sarcastic. Cohen's theory likely has a very weak correlation at best.

Personally I think the guy is selling snake oil.

I think there is def. something to it, but it was initially given too much weight.....its akin to thinking that the QBO and AO are perfectly correlated, but we know that isn't true because there area  myriad of other factors.

[40/70 Benchmark]

36 minutes ago, frd said:

Thats great, on a side note I have heard various things from mets regarding the configuration of SSTs in the North Atlantic and the coming Winter's dominant NAO phase. Some say cold / warm / cold equal a - NAO signal where others have the opposite configuration, some seem to look at the Newfoundland cold pool as well for indications. Do you put much weight on the Northwest Atlantic SST profile when you look at the winter's possible NAO phase?     

I think that there maybe something to the May-Aug n atl subsurface correlating to DM predominate NAO state/ n atl sst configuration, however, no.....I think that ssts are mainly a reflection of 500mb pattern, and can re  enforce when all else is favorable in a stable regime.

[Maestrobjwa]

On 9/14/2018 at 10:43 PM, psuhoffman said:

It seems that whenever the solar cycle does reach its minimum shortly after there tends to be a blockbuster year. And it's not totally enso dependent. 2010 was the perfect storm of a solar minimum and perfect enso. But 1996 pulled it off with a Nina. 1977s unfavorable enso might have prevented a snowier outcome to a brutal cold winter. The minimum in the mid 60s delivered. But what most has in common was the nao moreso then enso. So maybe just not having a crap enso state is enough. Problem is we don't know if the cycle has bottomed or not. Is the "big year" this year or next. I think there is likely one coming but it might not be this winter. But I see no reasons to say for sure it's not or that this year can't at least be ok even if it's not. 

Now was 1977s also a solar minimum year? (Is that why you said a crappy enso prevented a snowier winter?) And is that to say solar minimum doesn't always come with a minimum? (Or would even an okay enso with a minimum be enough?)

[poolz1]

Fantasy land map posting dry run.....

 

[North Balti Zen]

This is acceptable:

 

[frd]

1 hour ago, poolz1 said:

Fantasy land map posting dry run.....

 

Do you know when the next release is from the Euro for DJF temps/ anomalies  , is it the beginning of the every month or is this the normal time ?

 

 

[poolz1]

This is the control run from the weeklies. Monthly run comes out at the beginning of the month I think... Was mostly a banter post.

Do you know when the next release is from the Euro for DJF temps/ anomalies  , is it the beginning of the every month or is this the normal time ?
 
 

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