showmethesnow Posted August 23, 2018 Share Posted August 23, 2018 6 minutes ago, Sparky said: A few king sized electric blankets spread around will do the trick even better. Maybe, but they wouldn't be as much fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted August 23, 2018 Share Posted August 23, 2018 Guys guys guys....come on now the solution is simple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted August 23, 2018 Share Posted August 23, 2018 Another option... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted August 23, 2018 Share Posted August 23, 2018 Embrace THIS. I am now on my way to Buda, Texas. We are driving. I will soon not be in-state. This, is why you will all get buried alive in deep snow this winter, Winter 2018-2019. You know this is true. You will get buried in deep snow so badly even the National Guard will not be able to help you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted August 26, 2018 Share Posted August 26, 2018 Latest Enso anomaly map. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/sst.anom.anim.week.html Looking at the latest 2 week loop suggests that if we in fact see a Nino (60% fall, 70% winter) a Western based one would probably be favored, at least initially. Can't rule out it morphing towards a central based Nino (Modoki) with time but with the continual up-welling of cold pools moving westward into the eastern portion of the 3.4 region it doesn't look favorable at this time. Both phases are good for snow chances in our region with the Modoki probably being favored. All of this is contingent on a -NAO for the winter to allow cold air dumps into the Eastern portion of the nation. Otherwise a +NAO bottles up the cold in Canada and we waste an active southern jet as it brings in the storms and moisture but the warmth as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted August 26, 2018 Share Posted August 26, 2018 On 8/14/2018 at 1:46 PM, Eskimo Joe said: It'll be a shellacking blizzard in DC that will make 1996 look like 2016. I lived in Maryland in 96, I was a kid but that storm was epic. We lived out in a country area, are House was directly on the patuxent river (we could walk down to the beach from our back yard). We also had a huge driveway that the majority off was a big hill with a slight turn in it midway down. When that storm hit we were of course snowed in as well as all our neighbors. My dad and his buddy who lived at the top off our driveway built a huge bon fire at the top and had everybody from our road come down and sled and enjoy the bon fire in the snow. It was an epic night! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted August 26, 2018 Share Posted August 26, 2018 On 8/23/2018 at 6:18 PM, Jebman said: Embrace THIS. I am now on my way to Buda, Texas. We are driving. I will soon not be in-state. This, is why you will all get buried alive in deep snow this winter, Winter 2018-2019. You know this is true. You will get buried in deep snow so badly even the National Guard will not be able to help you. It won’t be the same without you. I’m saddened by this news you won’t be here. Obs from Texas are not that exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted August 26, 2018 Share Posted August 26, 2018 On 8/23/2018 at 6:18 PM, Jebman said: Embrace THIS. I am now on my way to Buda, Texas. We are driving. I will soon not be in-state. This, is why you will all get buried alive in deep snow this winter, Winter 2018-2019. You know this is true. You will get buried in deep snow so badly even the National Guard will not be able to help you. Sucks that you are gone Jeb. Good health and luck in Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 26, 2018 Share Posted August 26, 2018 DT (Wxrisk) has posted an early winter preview video for the upcoming 2018-19 winter season. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p6fT7Ge7mWE&feature=youtu.be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted August 27, 2018 Share Posted August 27, 2018 2 hours ago, Rtd208 said: DT (Wxrisk) has posted an early winter preview video for the upcoming 2018-19 winter season. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p6fT7Ge7mWE&feature=youtu.be Interesting, he like most is focusing on the El Nino, but he, as well as others , seem to give weight as well to the QBO and solar. The QBO could be in the sweet spot but still hard to know. Solar continues to drop. He also mentioned the Atlanic SST tripole cold/warm/cold but honestly of all the indices I think the NAO is the most difficult to predict. I found it interesting that many of his constructed analog maps based on the QBO and the weak El Nino had a stellar December. With Feb not so great. Confusing to a degree, as Feb seems to be the best in our parts with an El Nino. I myself like his thoughts and looking at some data and history maybe a good December is possible although to get an entire month to be good is very difficult in this day and age. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted August 27, 2018 Share Posted August 27, 2018 Speaking of the QBO - Also Amy has good stuff on this topic and SSWE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted August 27, 2018 Share Posted August 27, 2018 IF you know where to look you can actually find the solar minimum signal. So far it's been massively overshadowed by AGW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted August 27, 2018 Share Posted August 27, 2018 Quote CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society 9 August 2018 ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch Synopsis: There is ~60% chance of El Niño in the Northern Hemisphere fall 2018 (SeptemberNovember), increasing to ~70% during winter 2018-19. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted August 27, 2018 Share Posted August 27, 2018 I see nothing that looks bad. Att all the key players are either ambiguous or in a positive state for a good winter. That guarantees nothing. We know we typically only get 2-3 very snowy winters a decade and we can get unlucky even in a year where the pattern is good...but right now we are "in the game" and that is all we can ask for heading into fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted August 27, 2018 Share Posted August 27, 2018 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: I see nothing that looks bad. Att all the key players are either ambiguous or in a positive state for a good winter. That guarantees nothing. We know we typically only get 2-3 very snowy winters a decade and we can get unlucky even in a year where the pattern is good...but right now we are "in the game" and that is all we can ask for heading into fall. Now this here...everytime you've said it I look back at this decade as a whole...And we've already succeeded that number with 4 (unless you don't count 2016). And really...I think the 60s were also an exception to that rule! (Sweet mercy we got a lot of snow that decade! At least BWI did anyway, lol) That being said...what haven't liked hearing is analogs being thrown around for 1994-95 and 2006-2007....yuck, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted August 28, 2018 Share Posted August 28, 2018 4 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: Now this here...everytime you've said it I look back at this decade as a whole...And we've already succeeded that number with 4 (unless you don't count 2016). And really...I think the 60s were also an exception to that rule! (Sweet mercy we got a lot of snow that decade! At least BWI did anyway, lol) That being said...what haven't liked hearing is analogs being thrown around for 1994-95 and 2006-2007....yuck, lol Over the long term it seems we can expect 2-3 big snow years a decade. Meaning much above normal. Most of the rest tend to be a mix between a bit below mean years and real crap years. But yea the 60s was a major exception to that. But in the 50 years since it's been a fairly steady thing. Of course patterns can change. And every year is its own entity just as every storm is so just because we have technically had 3 good years this decade does not mean we can't have another now. Probabilities don't work that way. We could go on a run then have a decade that's the opposite of the 60s with almost no great seasons. Plus the weather doesn't care when a decade ends and begins. It's just random. I do think climo probabilities and history are important for setting expectations but records are made to be broken and the unpredictability and threat of an unprecedented event is part of the thrill of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted August 28, 2018 Share Posted August 28, 2018 4 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: That being said...what haven't liked hearing is analogs being thrown around for 1994-95 and 2006-2007....yuck, lol I remember those years very differently. 95 just sucked. If not for the one storm in Feb it would have been an all time awful season. I think the pattern just was a no go most of the year. I don't remember many threats. 2007 I wouldn't mind rolling the dice with a similar hand again. It started a mess. And it took a while to recover but then we had a good pattern in Feb and March and just missed 2 epic storms but the majority of their impact ended up just northwest of us. Get that seasonal setup again without the awful raging positive nao start and more luck and it might work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted August 28, 2018 Share Posted August 28, 2018 On 8/26/2018 at 6:42 PM, Rtd208 said: DT (Wxrisk) has posted an early winter preview video for the upcoming 2018-19 winter season. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p6fT7Ge7mWE&feature=youtu.be It was an exceptional synopsis. Great reference for those of us who didn’t know what QBO and MODOKI really mean. Seems like a regular Nino is not what we are really after. Good analogs in the mix with a couple of duds. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted August 28, 2018 Share Posted August 28, 2018 18 minutes ago, BristowWx said: It was an exceptional synopsis. Great reference for those of us who didn’t know what QBO and MODOKI really mean. Seems like a regular Nino is not what we are really after. Good analogs in the mix with a couple of duds. We shall see. 30+ minutes of definitions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 28, 2018 Share Posted August 28, 2018 2 hours ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: 30+ minutes of definitions If you were expecting his winter outlook you are 2-2.5 months to early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted August 28, 2018 Share Posted August 28, 2018 5 hours ago, Rtd208 said: If you were expecting his winter outlook you are 2-2.5 months to early. Even if he did one no one would believe it anyway. Always expect disaster until it’s actually snowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted August 28, 2018 Share Posted August 28, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted August 28, 2018 Share Posted August 28, 2018 8 hours ago, BristowWx said: Even if he did one no one would believe it anyway. Always expect disaster until it’s actually snowing. I believe different years have different lead times. 2009-2010 was anticipated in July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 29, 2018 Share Posted August 29, 2018 People who post the Farmers Almanac should be permanently banned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted August 29, 2018 Share Posted August 29, 2018 44 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: People who post the Farmers Almanac should be permanently banned. I just always hope it says warm and wet for us since it says cold and snowy every single year and fails. Sort of like Bustardi's "forecasts." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted August 29, 2018 Share Posted August 29, 2018 3 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: People who post the Farmers Almanac should be permanently banned. Why? It's definitely relevant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted August 29, 2018 Share Posted August 29, 2018 More summer evidence of fun times ahead! eta: the blob returns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted August 29, 2018 Share Posted August 29, 2018 2 hours ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: More summer evidence of fun times ahead! eta: the blob returns Seeing high end weak to low end moderate is definitely something to like as we approach September. w/ 70% likelyhood of Nino going into winter, is a BIG duck on the hopefully frozen and snowcovered winter pond for us. Throw in some blocking and hopefully fun times a comin So so tired of this heat and o friggin pressive humidity. Nearing September tells us that at least the worst should soon be over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted August 31, 2018 Share Posted August 31, 2018 On 8/29/2018 at 4:15 PM, pasnownut said: Seeing high end weak to low end moderate is definitely something to like as we approach September. w/ 70% likelyhood of Nino going into winter, is a BIG duck on the hopefully frozen and snowcovered winter pond for us. Throw in some blocking and hopefully fun times a comin So so tired of this heat and o friggin pressive humidity. Nearing September tells us that at least the worst should soon be over. Don't count on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted September 1, 2018 Share Posted September 1, 2018 15 hours ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Don't count on it. I see the maps and like i said, the worst should SOON be over....no matter how extended the stay of SER is, we are entering a time when climo says 90's are going to be hard to come by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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