Winter 2018-19 Is Coming

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Considering it's August and even the greatest super computers in world can't get it right more than a couple weeks out let alone a couple months....I'm pretty optimistic. 

Nino's are like the Field of Dreams. Build it and they will come. But usually not until the second half. If we score between Dec 1st and Jan 15th then my guess is climo doesn't stand a chance.

Even with 125% of climo snow, I can accurately predict that there will be a whole bunch of posters unhappy because the bay didn't freeze shore to shore and even Dec sun can melt the roads when it's below freezing. And it's going to be warm of Christmas. 

Hey you and I posted something at the exact same time...except yours optimistic and mine is inexperiencially not as optimistic...lol What are your thoughts on it?

[Bob Chill]

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Hey you and I posted something at the exact same time...except yours optimistic and mine is inexperiencially not as optimistic...lol What are your thoughts on it?

Won't know until mid-late Sept at the ealiest. Right now everything looks good enough. We need luck more than we need a nino. Sure, nino helps but good snow winters are loaded with good luck and bad winters are luckless. No predicting that piece of the pie until you're shoveling. 

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Won't know until mid-late Sept at the ealiest. Right now everything looks good enough. We need luck more than we need a nino. Sure, nino helps but good snow winters are loaded with good luck and bad winters are luckless. No predicting that piece of the pie until you're shoveling. 

Now couldn't we say though, that Neutrals require more luck than Niños? (But perhaps not as much luck as Niñas...those things are almost impossible, unfair, heartbreaking, start at the 1 yard line kind of odds). And has there ever been a weak-moderate Niño that didn't produce? (I know the strong ones are blizzard or nothing, lol)

[Bob Chill]

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Now couldn't we say though, that Neutrals require more luck than Niños? (But perhaps not as much luck as Niñas...those things are almost impossible, unfair, heartbreaking, start at the 1 yard line kind of odds). And has there ever been a weak-moderate Niño that didn't produce? (I know the strong ones are blizzard or nothing, lol)

Nino's favor an active southern stream so it surely helps. But neutral or even nina's can have an active southern stream at times. 95-96 was a mod nina and it crushed the region.

Winters like 13-14 are better than Nino's for activity but that was lucky becuase the closest match to the ul pattern is 93-94. That one was far more ice and crap than 13-14. Lucky side and unlucky side cant be illustrated any better. 

Last winter was very unlucky. Sure, we can blame it on enso but lots of areas very close around us did quite well. The south did well too.  That could have easily been here too but it didn't break right. 

I'm not saying that I don't prefer Nino's because if I had a choice it's an easy one. Then again, we could easily have a mod west based nino and strike out too. We're probably due for that. Lol

[Maestrobjwa]

5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Nino's favor an active southern stream so it surely helps. But neutral or even nina's can have an active southern stream at times. 95-96 was a mod nina and it crushed the region.

Winters like 13-14 are better than Nino's for activity but that was lucky becuase the closest match to the ul pattern is 93-94. That one was far more ice and crap than 13-14. Lucky side and unlucky side cant be illustrated any better. 

Last winter was very unlucky. Sure, we can blame it on enso but lots of areas very close around us did quite well. The south did well too.  That could have easily been here too but it didn't break right. 

I'm not saying that I don't prefer Nino's because if I had a choice it's an easy one. Then again, we could easily have a mod west based nino and strike out too. We're probably due for that. Lol

Wait a minute...so not only do we need El Niño, but we need it to specifically be a weak-modearate AND East based? C'mon....It's like we gotta roll 5 different dice around here, lol Okay, so...what saves us in potentially neutral winter again?

Not to mention that even if El DOES come back next year, it could be west-based? (Isn't the western region warmer right now, btw?)

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Wait a minute...so not only do we need El Niño, but we need it to specifically be a weak-modearate AND East based? C'mon....It's like we gotta roll 5 different dice around here, lol Okay, so...what saves us in potentially neutral winter again?

Not to mention that even if El DOES come back next year, it could be west-based? (Isn't the western region warmer right now, btw?)

Actually we want a west based nino. The weak to moderate part might be redundant as there haven't been any recorded west based or modoki super ninos. It seams those are inherently weaker. We don't know what a strong west based nino would do. Maybe DC would get 100" of snow. Lol. 

Fact is no matter what enso state we are in for our area we want the warmer sst anomalies to be in the central equatorial pacific with cooler anomalies to the east closer to South America. That's because this places the tropical forcing in a favorable location to favor troughing in the eastern Conus. Even if it's a Nina we do "better" if it's an east based one with warmer waters in the central pacific then of it's a west based Nina on average. Obviously the impacts are greater if the waters are even warmer so it's better in a nino. That's why my joke about 100" in a west based super nino was only half joking. 

As for what else we need... there are so many factors that play a small part in the outcome. Qbo. Mjo. Atlantic sst. Pdo and pna. Epo. Solar. High latitude blocking. And they all play off each other so they aren't operating in a vacuum.  But if I had to pick one thing to go our way and say the hell with the rest I'll take my chances it's blocking.  Get some blocking then hope we time it up with a juiced up wave. That's our easiest win scenario here. Blocking has saved some years where not much has gone right otherwise. And plenty of years have had lots of factors look good but blocking never developed and the winter was a fail. 

Even that's not a sure thing though. We have had some great blocking patterns go to waste also. And we have had years with no blocking work out. And how the blocking evolved matters. Some focus on the nao index but some of our best storms came from blocks that weren't classic nao. 2016 was more of a Karo block. You just have to get a feel for how the wave physics of the jet work and be familiar historically with what works and what doesn't in our area. 

As for your specific concerns regarding nino...I'm less worried att because I don't want a strong nino.  Midokis are typically weak and the sample size is too small to rule one out based on the limited data given in that article.  And even if it remains a neutral having warmer waters in the central PAC is what we want.  It's not a disaster either way.  It's worth noting the trends and it wasn't an article that I would put in the good news column but I'm not jumping over it either.  

Seasonal forecasters don't like to admit the variance of this. It's not a good selling point to tell clients that at best we can give you some probabilities a bit better then random chance.  I don't begrudge them for that. But think of all these factors like dice. Each one that lines up favorable gives you another roll. So stacking more of them in our favor increases our chances of winning. But we could still roll a 1 on them all!  Or we could only have one roll and pull off a 6. All we can root for is to pull off a decent pattern then hope for the best.  

[Bob Chill]

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Wait a minute...so not only do we need El Niño, but we need it to specifically be a weak-modearate AND East based? C'mon....It's like we gotta roll 5 different dice around here, lol Okay, so...what saves us in potentially neutral winter again?

Not to mention that even if El DOES come back next year, it could be west-based? (Isn't the western region warmer right now, btw?)

Our best combo is west based mod nino. I was just saying that one could happen and we get the shaft anyways. 

With neutrals we need blocking of some sort. Either neg ao, nao, or epo. Another good teleconnection is a +pdo. That usually translates to a +pna. That works here too. 

I wouldn't worry much at all until we get into Nov. That's the earliest we can judge teleconnections and even that's a stretch. 

[frd]

53 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Our best combo is west based mod nino. I was just saying that one could happen and we get the shaft anyways. 

With neutrals we need blocking of some sort. Either neg ao, nao, or epo. Another good teleconnection is a +pdo. That usually translates to a +pna. That works here too. 

I wouldn't worry much at all until we get into Nov. That's the earliest we can judge teleconnections and even that's a stretch. 

Hey Bob, thanks for stopping in . Looking ahead at least there is hope . I myself prefer moderate over weak and West based.  I believe weak Ninos favor Southern New England and moderate Ninos favor us more, just saying, I know you know that ha ha . But, my point is that I rather gamble with the Nino going stronger than forecasted. 

Might be hard to get a moderate EL Nino, not sure at this point. I am more comfortable with the thinking the warmest waters and the best forcing is West based.  

Interesting read from Tip in the New England forum about the winter evolution and the Nino and other elements at play. Not as simple as it apears. Heh, is it ever ? 

Take care Bob, I am noticing the days getting shorter - we are on the road back :-)  

[WinterWxLuvr]

2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Won't know until mid-late Sept at the ealiest. Right now everything looks good enough. We need luck more than we need a nino. Sure, nino helps but good snow winters are loaded with good luck and bad winters are luckless. No predicting that piece of the pie until you're shoveling. 

Nailed it.  Luck matters. 2010-2011 was very close to being a great winter out here, but it seemed we literally found a way to screw up every time. And last year, being just far enough north that any decent precip events were squashed south. Then there’s 13-14 when it seemed everything trended perfectly.

[Jebman]

15 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I can guarantee a good snowstorm between the Dec 27th Jan 7th timeframe.  My wife is dragging me to Florida for a wedding and trip to Disney World (joy......).

You think THAT'S bad? I get to spend all winter in south Texas lmao........

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I should be ok though. but sad as heck. I hope you guys get buried alive by deep record snows!

[PrinceFrederickWx]

The airports and everywhere north and west of them are really due for a significant snowfall in February- combine that with ENSO state (neutral/Nino) and I'd put my money on that.

 

 

[frd]

Reading all the comments, ( well mostly Ventrice's )  in this tweet was very interesting .  Seems the low frequency forcing and and convection  to set up near the date line per Ventrice during the cold season.  

 

 

[BristowWx]

Old Farmers almanac forecast is warm and wet for our region.   I will take that and run. Almost time folks..I’m ready. 

[Jebman]

On 8/14/2018 at 7:38 PM, WinterWxLuvr said:

Nailed it.  Luck matters. 2010-2011 was very close to being a great winter out here, but it seemed we literally found a way to screw up every time. And last year, being just far enough north that any decent precip events were squashed south. Then there’s 13-14 when it seemed everything trended perfectly.

13-14 was pure heaven. Snow lovers were flying HIGH.

[BristowWx]

9 minutes ago, Jebman said:

13-14 was pure heaven. Snow lovers were flying HIGH.

Don’t know Jeb...luck rules around here beyond teleconnections..we have missed some sure hits without explanation...of course there were scientific explanations but we if the rain/snow line is no where to be found we manage locate it.  Or we end up with dry air where the snow can’t advance past Dale City...remember those events.  3 am and no first flakes  

[Maestrobjwa]

Yeah definitely much luck involved that year...lol And given how last winter went...not sure I wanna test our luck with a neutral this year...Last winter scarred my hopes in anything trending our way till we get a bonafide moderate Niño. Yeah it's illogical, but ya know...recency bias, lol But at least in a Neutral we don't have to get screwed over by the NS, but...eh....Now you'd think we'd be due for an El Niño in 2019-20, right?...

[frd]

2 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah definitely much luck involved that year...lol And given how last winter went...not sure I wanna test our luck with a neutral this year...Last winter scarred my hopes in anything trending our way till we get a bonafide moderate Niño. Yeah it's illogical, but ya know...recency bias, lol But at least in a Neutral we don't have to get screwed over by the NS, but...eh....Now you'd think we'd be due for an El Niño in 2019-20, right?...

Seems the Jasmtec flipped to warmer in it's latest update, and reading a bit here in the New England forum there is thought that it may be due to it losing the warmer DJF SSTs in the Gulf of Alaska.  Way to early for anything solid to grasp IMHO

[CAPE]

Latest CPC ENSO update for 8/20 has an El Nino Watch, and holding to a 70% chance of an El Nino for the winter months.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

[Vice-Regent]

We've never had such widespread warmth over the NW Atlantic. Could prove to be a unique winter albeit a very warm one with bouts of wet snow. The kind of wet snow that caves in roofs and such. Fun.

[WEATHER53]

I like above average precipitation but still ironing out temps.

 

 

 

[psuhoffman]

6 hours ago, Vice-Regent said:

We've never had such widespread warmth over the NW Atlantic. Could prove to be a unique winter albeit a very warm one with bouts of wet snow. The kind of wet snow that caves in roofs and such. Fun.

You must be so much fun at parties. 

[mattie g]

6 hours ago, Vice-Regent said:

We've never had such widespread warmth over the NW Atlantic. Could prove to be a unique winter albeit a very warm one with bouts of wet snow. The kind of wet snow that caves in roofs and such. Fun.

Because snow caves in roofs so often around here.

[frd]

9 hours ago, Vice-Regent said:

We've never had such widespread warmth over the NW Atlantic. Could prove to be a unique winter albeit a very warm one with bouts of wet snow. The kind of wet snow that caves in roofs and such. Fun.

This SST anomaly might very well change by the heart of the cold season. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

5 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

You must be so much fun at parties. 

 

5 hours ago, mattie g said:

Because snow caves in roofs so often around here.

I decided to reinforce my rafters after seeing that post.

[showmethesnow]

56 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

 

I decided to reinforce my rafters after seeing that post.

I decided to move to Florida. Roofs caving in due to wet snows is scary stuff. 

[Scraff]

9 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

You must be so much fun at parties. 

Will there be blizzard parties in the Jeb caves?  Oh wait. In TX? Never mind. Carry on. I was going to supply the beer! But forget it now.

[H2O]

If we park our cars on our roofs so that they make it too warm for the snow to pile up then we don't need stronger rafters.  Think, guys!  

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 hour ago, H2O said:

If we park our cars on our roofs so that they make it too warm for the snow to pile up then we don't need stronger rafters.  Think, guys!  

Damnit, why didn't I think of that?  

I'll start building my ramp today.

[showmethesnow]

14 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

No real comment on the upcoming winter. I just have to say it's damn good to see Bob and WinterWxLuvr posting again. 

What about me? You make me feel like chopped liver. 

3 hours ago, H2O said:

If we park our cars on our roofs so that they make it too warm for the snow to pile up then we don't need stronger rafters.  Think, guys!  

There you go thinking again. Little more thought and you would have realized that was not the way to go because most people don't have 8-10 cars to park up there for the coverage. Now Flame Throwers are the ticket. Much more economical then running a bunch of cars and you don't have to build a ramp.

[Sparky]

10 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

 

There you go thinking again. Little more thought and you would have realized that was not the way to go because most people don't have 8-10 cars to park up there for the coverage. Now Flame Throwers are the ticket. Much more economical then running a bunch of cars and you don't have to build a ramp.

A few king sized electric blankets spread around will do the trick even better.