frd Posted August 7, 2018 Share Posted August 7, 2018 Modoki , : I mean to do justice, you have to visit the thread. HM's research is always great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted August 7, 2018 Share Posted August 7, 2018 Don't want the CFS to feel left out when talking about the super long range winter outlooks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted August 7, 2018 Share Posted August 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: Yeah, There's not going to be Winter. Let's go to Africa. Me and You. I'm pretty sure there will be winter. Cold and snow is more iffy but I'm fairly confident winter will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted August 7, 2018 Share Posted August 7, 2018 It's not going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 8, 2018 Share Posted August 8, 2018 If anyone cares, on WB premium, JB says it will be a major cold and stormy winter... temp anomaly of -3 to -5, and calling for 133% snowfall for the area -- 167% is in C VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted August 8, 2018 Share Posted August 8, 2018 8 minutes ago, yoda said: If anyone cares, on WB premium, JB says it will be a major cold and stormy winter... temp anomaly of -3 to -5, and calling for 133% snowfall for the area -- 167% is in C VA Oh for crying out loud...I mean can that even begin to be believable this early? (What is he basing it on? I mean sure, we'd all love for that to happen, but his stuff seems to be hype sometimes...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 8, 2018 Share Posted August 8, 2018 3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Oh for crying out loud...I mean can that even begin to be believable this early? (What is he basing it on? I mean sure, we'd all love for that to happen, but his stuff seems to be hype sometimes...) I can't really post the link or images and stuff since its behind paywall unfortunately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 9, 2018 Author Share Posted August 9, 2018 5 hours ago, yoda said: If anyone cares, on WB premium, JB says it will be a major cold and stormy winter... temp anomaly of -3 to -5, and calling for 133% snowfall for the area -- 167% is in C VA Snowfall isn’t crazy if we get a mod modoki. Temp forecast is lolz as usual. Pretty sure JB’s cold forecasts are his way of denying climate change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted August 9, 2018 Share Posted August 9, 2018 14 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Snowfall isn’t crazy if we get a mod modoki. Temp forecast is lolz as usual. Pretty sure JB’s cold forecasts are his way of denying climate change. How did he weight low planetary energies? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted August 12, 2018 Share Posted August 12, 2018 Days until Winter 131 https://days.to/until/winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted August 12, 2018 Share Posted August 12, 2018 1 hour ago, showmethesnow said: Days until Winter 131 https://days.to/until/winter Now we gotta determine if it's gonna be Winter or "Winter"....Oh El Niño, c'mon you can do it, bro! (And again, neutral might not be good enough...but perhaps at least then we may be able to luck into something...maybe) At least it's a better chance than La Ick....I mean La Niña. La Niña is heartbreaker, El Niño is a dream maker! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted August 13, 2018 Share Posted August 13, 2018 You guys are gonna get buried ALIVE by deep deep snows in this 2018-2019 Winter. Records will be broken all over. WxWatcher007 will not be able to help himself. He will be back in as The Reaper. By late Jan 2019 you will all be begging me to come up from Texas long enough to dig you all out. Its going to be THAT EPIC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted August 13, 2018 Share Posted August 13, 2018 37 minutes ago, Jebman said: You guys are gonna get buried ALIVE by deep deep snows in this 2018-2019 Winter. Records will be broken all over. WxWatcher007 will not be able to help himself. He will be back in as The Reaper. By late Jan 2019 you will all be begging me to come up from Texas long enough to dig you all out. Its going to be THAT EPIC. Ya know...when I see your icon on the feed...I already know what I'm gonna see, lol But really...are you one that believes you can speak a good winter into existence, or are you just an optimist in general? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted August 13, 2018 Share Posted August 13, 2018 4 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: Ya know...when I see your icon on the feed...I already know what I'm gonna see, lol But really...are you one that believes you can speak a good winter into existence, or are you just an optimist in general? I think his post style answers your question for you. Never met anyone that was super positive about something and hated the rest of their existence....just sayin. Jeb, we'll point snowblowers SW and throw as much fluff your way as possible. All the best to you in the new opportunity. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted August 13, 2018 Share Posted August 13, 2018 SOI going down and more to continue. Meanwhile : Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted August 13, 2018 Share Posted August 13, 2018 Speculation these MJO events continue into the winter season, possibly help to forecast certain active periods, not sure, but another one is forecasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted August 13, 2018 Share Posted August 13, 2018 14 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: Ya know...when I see your icon on the feed...I already know what I'm gonna see, lol But really...are you one that believes you can speak a good winter into existence, or are you just an optimist in general? Both, lol. I'll always be pulling for record snows in my Hometown. Besides, the entire Mid Atlantic is one big #SnowTown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted August 13, 2018 Share Posted August 13, 2018 9 hours ago, pasnownut said: I think his post style answers your question for you. Never met anyone that was super positive about something and hated the rest of their existence....just sayin. Jeb, we'll point snowblowers SW and throw as much fluff your way as possible. All the best to you in the new opportunity. Nut I dont have to reside in the Mid Atlantic to pull for massive winters there. I might need to catch a quick flight out to IAD this winter, throw a snow chase Texas style lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted August 13, 2018 Share Posted August 13, 2018 46 minutes ago, Jebman said: Both, lol. I'll always be pulling for record snows in my Hometown. Besides, the entire Mid Atlantic is one big #SnowTown. #sometimes....But as good as the snow can be, the heartbreak can be bad too, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted August 13, 2018 Share Posted August 13, 2018 Saw someone post in another forum that El Niños have a tendency to fail during solar minimums...Now was 2009 a solar minimum year, or did we hit that the year before? (I'm trying to see if there's a snowier trend in the 2nd winter after the minimum or the first) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted August 13, 2018 Share Posted August 13, 2018 40 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Saw someone post in another forum that El Niños have a tendency to fail during solar minimums...Now was 2009 a solar minimum year, or did we hit that the year before? (I'm trying to see if there's a snowier trend in the 2nd winter after the minimum or the first) I could be mistaken, but believe the solar min reaches it's lowest point in late 2019 or early 2020. If so, the winter of 19-20 will be effected as well, and possibly more so than this coming winter. Noty sure of the QBO at that point though. Also, keep an eye as the Fall rolls on the ozone levels up there as HM made referenced to that a few weeks ago, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted August 14, 2018 Share Posted August 14, 2018 The general trends continue . I like what HM put together here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 14, 2018 Share Posted August 14, 2018 I can guarantee a good snowstorm between the Dec 27th Jan 7th timeframe. My wife is dragging me to Florida for a wedding and trip to Disney World (joy......). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 14, 2018 Share Posted August 14, 2018 15 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: I can guarantee a good snowstorm between the Dec 27th Jan 7th timeframe. My wife is dragging me to Florida for a wedding and trip to Disney World (joy......). Disney World is still pretty cool to go to as an adult thought... just my opinion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted August 14, 2018 Share Posted August 14, 2018 2 hours ago, yoda said: Disney World is still pretty cool to go to as an adult thought... just my opinion I second that, plus the food is good. I recommend the Disney Planner thing where you go to things, rides, etc, based on a time table counter the normal trends . Developed by a Disney tour guide(s). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted August 14, 2018 Share Posted August 14, 2018 4 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: I can guarantee a good snowstorm between the Dec 27th Jan 7th timeframe. My wife is dragging me to Florida for a wedding and trip to Disney World (joy......). What's that? Snowstorm in Florida between Dec 27 - Jan 7? Got it. Will put that in my calendar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 14, 2018 Share Posted August 14, 2018 12 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: What's that? Snowstorm in Florida between Dec 27 - Jan 7? Got it. Will put that in my calendar. It'll be a shellacking blizzard in DC that will make 1996 look like 2016. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted August 14, 2018 Share Posted August 14, 2018 51 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: It'll be a shellacking blizzard in DC that will make 1996 look like 2016. Then reschedule your trip for Dec 24, please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 14, 2018 Share Posted August 14, 2018 Considering it's August and even the greatest super computers in world can't get it right more than a couple weeks out let alone a couple months....I'm pretty optimistic. Nino's are like the Field of Dreams. Build it and they will come. But usually not until the second half. If we score between Dec 1st and Jan 15th then my guess is climo doesn't stand a chance. Even with 125% of climo snow, I can accurately predict that there will be a whole bunch of posters unhappy because the bay didn't freeze shore to shore and even Dec sun can melt the roads when it's below freezing. And it's going to be warm of Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted August 14, 2018 Share Posted August 14, 2018 A (somewhat depressing? Or maybe not?) discussion from the NOAA website.... "In the context of last year's aborted El Niño event, this section features a comparison figure with six other short-lived events during the MEI period of record. Only one of them occurred before 1980, while 2017 joined both 2014 and 2012 in a recent clustering of such events that lasted five five bimonthly seasons or less, with all of them ending before September-October. Compared to last month, the updated (June-July) MEI dropped rapidly to +0.07, ending up right in the middle of ENSO-neutralranking. This means that not a single season has reached El Niño conditions in 2018. Looking at the nearest 12 rankings (+6/-6) in this season, and excluding all cases that departed by more than 0.6 standard deviations in the changes from the previous month as well as three months earlier (March-April), there are only four analogues to the situation this season: 1985, '00, '01, and '08. All four of these cases either continued with ENSO-neutral conditions (2001) or dropped into at least intermittent La Niña conditions (especially in 2008, but also in 2000, and very briefly in 1985). Even among the other eight cases, El Niño was 'not on the menu' (2003 came closest). Compared to last month, the likelihood of El Niño conditions later this year has changed dramatically (from "inevitable" to "very unlikely")." Also goes on to say... "Compared to last month, the odds for El Niño in 2018 have dropped dramatically, not unlike previous aborted events in 2017, 2014, and 2012. Daily updates of the ENSO status can be found at the TAO/TRITON website, showing weak anomalies, or mostly ENSO-neutral conditions in early August over the equatorial Pacific." https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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