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Winter 2018-19 Is Coming

WxUSAF

By WxUSAF,
in Mid Atlantic

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Chris78

Chris78

Posted
Posted
31 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea, the NA pattern has been great since early October to build and maintain snowcover in Canada. No sign of the persistent ridging in the west letting up either so no Pac air invasion into Canada over the next several weeks. 

There's really nothing going on to complain or worry about so far this fall. We haven't had an acceptable December since 2013. I'm pretty sick of wasting the first 6 weeks of met winter

I think our December luck will change this year if we can keep this look heading into next month.

 

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_63-1.png

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
49 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

I think our December luck will change this year if we can keep this look heading into next month.

 

Yes, it's very encouraging indeed. I'm loving the pressure patterns in the high latitudes as well. If this 5 day mean resembles the base state this winter then it's not an if it snows but how much... If we're still seeing these kinds of looks in 2-3 weeks then I'm going full weenie. 

gfs-ens_mslpaMean_nhem_12.png

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Maestrobjwa

Maestrobjwa

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Yes, it's very encouraging indeed. I'm loving the pressure patterns in the high latitudes as well. If this 5 day mean resembles the base state this winter then it's not an if it snows but how much... If we're still seeing these kinds of looks in 2-3 weeks then I'm going full weenie. 

gfs-ens_mslpaMean_nhem_12.png

The next 2-3 weeks is gonna quite the anticipatory drumroll...please oh PLEASE let it be real deal!!

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

The next 2-3 weeks is gonna quite the anticipatory drumroll...please oh PLEASE let it be real deal!!

Just be prepared for a flip to blah during early December. Doesn't look like it now but just be ready for it. Doesn't mean winter cancel or anything like that. It's totally normal for nino December's to have a zonal warmish conus pattern. As long as it doesn't coincide with a +AO it won't be a bad sign. 

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Maestrobjwa

Maestrobjwa

Posted
Posted
46 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Just be prepared for a flip to blah during early December. Doesn't look like it now but just be ready for it. Doesn't mean winter cancel or anything like that. It's totally normal for nino December's to have a zonal warmish conus pattern. As long as it doesn't coincide with a +AO it won't be a bad sign. 

Oh yeah I know December snow is often bonus territory around here anyway...I just wanna see the sweet ingredients being set up for the upcoming winter! (And NO positive anything except PNA...lol Watching to see the trends for the so and nao is gonna be a little nerve-wracking because we seem to be SO close! I feel like I'm tracking snow already...except it's tracking the signs for the entire winter!)

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frd

frd

Posted
Posted
44 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Just be prepared for a flip to blah during early December. Doesn't look like it now but just be ready for it. Doesn't mean winter cancel or anything like that. It's totally normal for nino December's to have a zonal warmish conus pattern. As long as it doesn't coincide with a +AO it won't be a bad sign. 

Yeah, do you think that because now the cold could last until the end of the month when a few days ago it was going to warm up near the 15 th or 18 th, does that mean the warmth comes later in December and lasts longer once we get into the month ? I am not sure.  I would think any relaxation should be brief. ( I hope ) 

So far this look above at the high lattitudes you are talking about should have a short reload period in early to mid December. I mean Isotherm has a cold and stormy December. 

There is a lot to like. 

 

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Eskimo Joe

Eskimo Joe

Posted
Posted
12 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Fantastic discussion, Isotherm.

My thinking is a lot like yours right now. I suspect that December will have an outcome pretty similar to what happened in 2002 as Atlantic blocking tries to take hold. A pause might occur in January as was the case then, before February finished very strongly.

Overall, I believe the predominant state of the teleconnections will be PDO+/EPO-/AO-. That's a great combination with a central Pacific-based El Niño event. I'm not sure about the NAO but note your research into that index. If it continues to prove accurate more often than not, it's a great breakthrough.

Having said that, I'm a bit more aggressive with the snowfall in the Middle Atlantic region (as posted in the November AmWx contest) for such cities as Washington and New York. I currently have NYC at 50".

Good luck with the forecast. You have shown skill and I expect that you will again do well.

:o

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Maestrobjwa

Maestrobjwa

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, nw baltimore wx said:

 

Hmmm...

I have to admit that I'm tempted but I'm holding out for HM and of course, Wes.

Those two hold some of the biggest suspense cards in this forum...lol They are withholding top secret information until a certain moment, knowing how much weight their opinions shall carry! :D

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted

The reason almost all the seasonal forecasts are similar is we are all looking at the same analogs.  Yes there is some room for interpretation in terms of weighting exactly what to include as a factor and ranking each factor in terms of importance.  But since they are still generally the same factors and this year no matter how you slice it the majority of the analogs turned out snowy.  BUT, there were a few duds in the set so nothing is guaranteed but you have to like where we are right now.  

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frd

frd

Posted
Posted
27 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The reason almost all the seasonal forecasts are similar is we are all looking at the same analogs.  Yes there is some room for interpretation in terms of weighting exactly what to include as a factor and ranking each factor in terms of importance.  But since they are still generally the same factors and this year no matter how you slice it the majority of the analogs turned out snowy.  BUT, there were a few duds in the set so nothing is guaranteed but you have to like where we are right now.  

I like the 63/64 winter analog,  a few(er) mets are using. Does not match up perfectly as some mention who are using it, due to the warmer climate now, but wow I love to look and listen to some of the videos of those years that feature the December Snowstorm and the massive winter storm after December .  

 

 

 

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nj2va

nj2va

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Oh hi there. 

“D.C. usually gets about 15 inches of snow, but Storm Team4 is predicting 25-35 inches this winter in the metro area and along Interstate 95. Expect 35-45 inches out toward Dulles International Airport and Frederick, Maryland, and even more than that further west.”

https://www.nbcwashington.com/news/local/Winter-Weather-Forecast-DC-Maryland-Virginia-500305531.html?fbclid=IwAR3wgUd7PUGFFBk2mnnSpoR9FdKBhxo6yIZ9tOCkuyP-ZDdC5HtiHyS2crY

Doug K is going all in!  Headline:  Double the Average in the DMV.  Yes please.  

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poolz1

poolz1

Posted
Posted
http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/pztmap.php
Does anyone have access to post the JMA seasonal update here?
It looks awesome with NAO blocking, to me almost epic. 
I had to turn my lap top around to see the block over Greenland. Better than the last update and supports the Ukmet, Euro.


Epic is right ,man! JMA is all in for dec, Jan and feb....good lawd. Maybe the eps weeklies will catch on sometime soon....
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frd

frd

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

 


Epic is right ,man! JMA is all in for dec, Jan and feb....good lawd. Maybe the eps weeklies will catch on sometime soon....

 

Hard to temper my excitment now.

Plus, I just read Ray's outlook ( Benchmark on the New England forum ) incredible.  I needed some buttered popcorn while reading it .  Seems blocking is the consensus now. 

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poolz1

poolz1

Posted
Posted
Tonight’s weeklies look much better per analysis on other sites. 


I don’t know....I thought they were so washed out it’s hard to say. Even more washed than last run. But the weak signals given were “ok” imo. Not a disaster but nothing to really hang your hat on either..
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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, poolz1 said:

 


I don’t know....I thought they were so washed out it’s hard to say. Even more washed than last run. But the weak signals given were “ok” imo. Not a disaster but nothing to really hang your hat on either..

 

Yeah I thought they were pretty meh. Looks like the -AO in early Dec goes neutral(then maybe positive towards the end of the month) and the NAO looks mostly neutral. EPAC is changeable and looks better towards the end with an Aleutian low and +PNA. But there is a +NAO at that point. Way out there though. Pretty ambiguous run overall. I wasn't expecting a great look in the NA as the 0z run was timid with the blocking in the LR. The 12z EPS today suddenly got more aggressive with the -NAO. Weeklies would probably look quite different had they initialized off today's 12z run.

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

Posted
Posted
9 hours ago, frd said:

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/pztmap.php

Does anyone have access to post the JMA seasonal update here?

It looks awesome with NAO blocking, to me almost epic. 

I had to turn my lap top around to see the block over Greenland. Better than the last update and supports the Ukmet, Euro.

That blocking over-top in January and especially February is a sight to behold. Not to mention that we are seeing lower pressures off the east coast through all three months. Looks like a winning formula to me. 

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frd

frd

Posted
Posted

Wow, the JAMSTEC has updated and it is very cold indeed, this has fallen into the camp of the Ukmet, Euro and others. 

Actually by scale the surface temps look very cold.

The precip panel harder to read , appears above normal in the Missisipi Valley and off the East Coast .

The Sea surface anomalies show warmth in the NE Pac and around Greenland too . 

Interesting cold blob off the Mid Atlantic Coast , that in time only deepens and extends further East across the Atlantic in time. 

 

I extended the look only for entertainment and it shows a cold spring and a cool summer too 

The seasurface forecasts for March to May and  from June to August still hold the the general SST profiles from right now only slowing decaying the NE warm pool while the El Nino signature continues , but the Modaki index falls off after mid December     

 http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/e/seasonal/outlook.html

 

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted

This is looking pretty far out, so take it fwiw. The latest runs of the GEPS and CFS weeklies lose the -NAO by mid December. Both look like they trend to a neutral AO/NAO, but the PAC continues to look excellent. Not unexpected if this were to verify, and yesterday's run of the EPS weekies holds onto the HL blocking through December, although the previous run did not.

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