Winter 2018-19 Is Coming

[frd]

45 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I don't think that January h5 looks bad but the ridge in Canada extends a bit further east then I like and that positive nao probably will mean a warm up during any relaxation. I could see a period where given that nao and Canadian ridge configuration that warm air floods across the Conus. But I definitely don't take it as a shutout month. It's a better look then we have had most of the time lately. But compared to the epic looking months around it on this run it's the runt. But I don't mind the possibility of a thaw period. Every analog says it's coming. And it would explain the overall washed out average temps for the winter. I don't have individual month temps but I'd bet money dec and feb are cold and January warm. That doesn't mean the whole month is toast but if 2 weeks are a torch and 2 weeks are near or slightly below normal but we get a snow event in there...and dec and feb are rocking...who cares. But that would explain how temps end up near normal with that h5 mean. I'm just speculating. 

Surprising to me at least the general wording from Ryan. Stated not much of a signal in the East.   

 

[Yanksfan]

52 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I don't think that January h5 looks bad but the ridge in Canada extends a bit further east then I like and that positive nao probably will mean a warm up during any relaxation. I could see a period where given that nao and Canadian ridge configuration that warm air floods across the Conus. But I definitely don't take it as a shutout month. It's a better look then we have had most of the time lately. But compared to the epic looking months around it on this run it's the runt. But I don't mind the possibility of a thaw period. Every analog says it's coming. And it would explain the overall washed out average temps for the winter. I don't have individual month temps but I'd bet money dec and feb are cold and January warm. That doesn't mean the whole month is toast but if 2 weeks are a torch and 2 weeks are near or slightly below normal but we get a snow event in there...and dec and feb are rocking...who cares. But that would explain how temps end up near normal with that h5 mean. I'm just speculating. 

Even in the most severe winters there are going to be relaxation/reload periods. If not looking at the calendar per say, winter runs from Dec. 1st thru April 1st. That's a long period of time for sustained cold. No one should expect a wire to wire winter cause you're really reaching for the moon if you do.

[LibertyBell]

47 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said:

Even in the most severe winters there are going to be relaxation/reload periods. If not looking at the calendar per say, winter runs from Dec. 1st thru April 1st. That's a long period of time for sustained cold. No one should expect a wire to wire winter cause you're really reaching for the moon if you do.

Sure look at a winter like 1966-67 which seems to have followed a similar pattern- snowy and cold December followed by a big thaw in January followed by a historic February and March

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Mean h5 for the winter.  

Feb

Looks like 2015 with some NAO blocking. Exceptional.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 11/3/2018 at 12:12 PM, frd said:

From what I hear, a  low end moderate may be appearing more likely recently, as in the last week or so. That plus location of the warmest SSTs is very good, especially for us in this region.  

The Sept/Oct MEI value is released on Saturday. It was around .5 last month..watch that closely because if it remains low, we may see a moderate ONI, but an atmospheric response more typical of a weak event.

See 1968-1969.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 11/3/2018 at 3:16 PM, Bob Chill said:

I'm too honest and don't like lying through my teeth. Sorry dude...

Same.

Refreshing.

[psuhoffman]

52 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said:

Even in the most severe winters there are going to be relaxation/reload periods. If not looking at the calendar per say, winter runs from Dec. 1st thru April 1st. That's a long period of time for sustained cold. No one should expect a wire to wire winter cause you're really reaching for the moon if you do.

It's almost impossible to get 3+ straight months of constant negative anomalies. But there are places that are cold enough where even a period of slight positive departures can still be wintery. Here that's not the case. Even an average period probably isn't that wintery. So thinking we are going to have a wall to wall cold/snowy winter just isn't realistic. 

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

1 hour ago, frd said:

Surprising to me at least the general wording from Ryan. Stated not much of a signal in the East.   

 

I think Maue needs to focus on his maps instead of forecasting seasonal. lol

[frd]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The Sept/Oct MEI value is released on Saturday. It was around .5 last month..watch that closely because if it remains low, we may see a moderate ONI, but an atmospheric response more typical of a weak event.

See 1968-1969.

Hmm, interesting that Winter near me produced a seasonal snowfall of over 23 inches with the majority falling in March.

I see several analogs and blends that indicate March might be a big month in the Northern Mid-Atlantic. Some with the potential of a HECS or MECS. Speculation purposes only.

[JakkelWx]

Could there be a correlation between very wet summers like 2018 and a snowy, cold winter that followed? Something tells me the soil moisture will help set up a predominant trough in the eastern U.S methinks. Some very exciting seasonal euro runs I saw today.

[Cobalt]

12 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

Could there be a correlation between very wet summers like 2018 and a snowy, cold winter that followed? Something tells me the soil moisture will help set up a predominant trough in the eastern U.S methinks. Some very exciting seasonal euro runs I saw today.

Last year's summer was above average in precip

[Bob Chill]

4 hours ago, JakkelWx said:

Another good sign. Waters off Greenland starting to warm, which would help set up the elusive blocking regime during the winter months.

I absolutely like seeing the cooling east of Japan. That's the only part of the current pac ssta configuration that I don't like. It's got a long way to go before a legit +pdo sets up but we have plenty of time and mid latitude surface temps can get bullied this time of year and during winter of course. 

[Bob Chill]

I pretty much love the latest euro seasonal. Basically implies that all 3 met winter months could deliver in some fashion.  None of the tragic features that scare the F out of me are there. Considering its Nov already and Dec looks really good is adding to my growing optimism. Nino's rarely deliver big cold so I wouldnt expect any seasonal models to show a cold winter. However, Nino's generally deliver the most imortant thing for our region (southern jet/miller As). All 3 months look great for that possibility. 

[Cobalt]

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Distribution of snowfall anomalies looks more la nina like.

[Maestrobjwa]

20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Distribution of snowfall anomalies looks more la nina like.

Don't use that word around these parts...

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Don't use that word around these parts...

I'm not endorsing it.

[frd]

Still liking very much the direction of the El Nino 

 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

The rain doesn't show any signs of stopping. Seasonal totals are +175% to start this Winter I think (El Nino).

[WxUSAF]

Restrain your shock, but JB2 is all in. 30”+ at BWI.

https://justinweather.com/2018/11/07/my-winter-outlook-2018-to-2019-multiple-noreasters-and-more-snow/

[frd]

8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Restrain your shock, but JB2 is all in. 30”+ at BWI.

https://justinweather.com/2018/11/07/my-winter-outlook-2018-to-2019-multiple-noreasters-and-more-snow/

Ha Ha "Group think"   :-)   

[frd]

2014 ish   

 

And the Scandinavian ridge feature on the GEFS by Judah - very prominent global depiction there, of course only a forecast 

 

 

More on the Scandinavian ridge:

 

 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

^It's weird that a strong eastern Canada trough would roll into the NAO like that. I've seen this before.. probably in verification neutral/slight +anomalies in northern Greenland stay around Day 10, making that the pattern the whole 15 days.  Hard to believe +NAO right now honestly. 

[frd]

Interesting given this normally shows warmth I think 

 

 

[frd]

The new UKMET seasonal is out, it holds the good trends .

I like it, seems like more NAO blocking. Looks active as well. 

 

 

 

 

[Bob Chill]

20 minutes ago, frd said:

The new UKMET seasonal is out, it holds the good trends .

I like it, seems like more NAO blocking. Looks active as well. 

 

 

 

 

That elongated BN height pattern is showing up more and more. Would imply active coast to coast storm track and would work well. Not a particularly cold or amplified  pattern like 14-15 but can easily envision elongated hp to the north of us pressing against low pressure underneath. Storm track would be more east versus north. Bodes well for the MA/SE

[frd]

28 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

That elongated BN height pattern is showing up more and more. Would imply active coast to coast storm track and would work well. Not a particularly cold or amplified  pattern like 14-15 but can easily envision elongated hp to the north of us pressing against low pressure underneath. Storm track would be more east versus north. Bodes well for the MA/SE

Agreed, and maybe another outcome is at some point a large chunk of the Country is snow covered, with a track like that,  E to W. 

Just read today that NA snow cover continues to grow and we are at/near decadal records . 

I really feel the feedback may be why the cold is staying longer than originally modeled.   

I just wish any warm up we do have does not eat up a lot of Canada's snow cover.  

And, if the last Euro snowfall seasonal is correct, by mid December even Frosty would be happy.    

[Bob Chill]

45 minutes ago, frd said:

Agreed, and maybe another outcome is at some point a large chunk of the Country is snow covered, with a track like that,  E to W. 

Just read today that NA snow cover continues to grow and we are at/near decadal records . 

I really feel the feedback may be why the cold is staying longer than originally modeled.   

I just wish any warm up we do have does not eat up a lot of Canada's snow cover.  

And, if the last Euro snowfall seasonal is correct, by mid December even Frosty would be happy.    

Yea, the NA pattern has been great since early October to build and maintain snowcover in Canada. No sign of the persistent ridging in the west letting up either so no Pac air invasion into Canada over the next several weeks. 

There's really nothing going on to complain or worry about so far this fall. We haven't had an acceptable December since 2013. I'm pretty sick of wasting the first 6 weeks of met winter

[Eskimo Joe]

 

[leo2000]

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

 

I wonder what the implications of this will be for the Northeast/ Eastern Canada pattern?.