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Winter 2018-19 Is Coming

WxUSAF

By WxUSAF,
in Mid Atlantic

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frd

frd

Posted
Posted
53 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

If we can get the mjo to keep cycling 8-2 with the same amplitude as the last two waves all winter were gonna like the results. 

Good point,  I hear that from some mets  too.

Due in part to the configuration of the SSTs in the SW Pac, and namely the still cooler/colder waters West of Aussie too.   

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
44 minutes ago, frd said:

Good point,  I here that from some mets  too.

Due in part to the configuration of the SSTs in the SW Pac, and namely the still cooler/colder waters West of Aussie too.   

Essentially there is warmer waters right now where we want convection and colder waters where we do not.  And the MJO is responding lately as the last 2 waves have cycled through the favorable phases.  If that continues through winter we will be good.  It certainly lends credence imo to the guidance that wants to have the trough in the east most of the winter.  

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted

I am good with what the euro seasonal is showing.  Average temps Dec-Feb but a trough in the east, EPO/western Canada ridging, and lower heights near 50/50 all 3 months.  December pattern looks good, January is ambiguous, February looks great.  Even January has enough trough in the means in the east to imply its not a lost month by any means but its the worst of the 3 with a hostile NAO.  February still looks 2010 ish.  Again near average temps but the h5 implies we would have chances and puts the storm track where we want it most of the winter and no sign of any awful feature like a WAR or Alaska vortex to screw everything up.  I am buying what its selling and running with it.  If the h5 for the winter ends up like that I would be shocked if we didn't get some decent snow events.  

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I believe it is, it says initialized November so that should be this month's update.  And I thought it was a pretty darn good look...I'm willing to roll with that and take my chances.  

Don't think you could ask for more. Looking at how the low pressure anomalies are running down through Baja is probably a good sign we are looking at an active sub-trop jet.

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WxUSAF

WxUSAF

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Posted
11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I believe it is, it says initialized November so that should be this month's update.  And I thought it was a pretty darn good look...I'm willing to roll with that and take my chances.  

Absolutely. I wouldn’t worry about what it spits out for surface temps with that look.  That’s a Miller A bonanza.

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frd

frd

Posted
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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

someone I know and trust from my PSU meteorology days sent it to me but if I had to guess the source I would say probably JB.  

It had to be JB, because I listened to his daily update at 7:45 AM on WB and he spoke like he had the update in his hands at that time . Plus he was in a very good mood !  

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Cool thanks. 

 

Just now, frd said:

It had to be JB, because I listened to his daily update at 7:45 AM on WB and he spoke like he had the update in his hands at that time . Plus he was in a very good mood !  

I would guess because I know several people in my PSU circle of friends have subscriptions to wxbell.  I currently do not.  I can verify they are authentic though because I found some maps posted on twitter and they match up perfectly.  

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frd

frd

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

I would guess because I know several people in my PSU circle of friends have subscriptions to wxbell.  I currently do not.  I can verify they are authentic though because I found some maps posted on twitter and they match up perfectly.  

Well then , it's party time !!!

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frd

frd

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The irony is someone who has been skeptical of the "cold snowy" consensus posted only the 2m temps showing "near normal" and neglected to post the h5.  LOL

This is 4 runs in a row right,  or is it 3 in a row that shows a great h5  from the Euro ?

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
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1 minute ago, usedtobe said:

The Euro seasonal does look really interesting.  While I'm not a big proponent of Nino meaning we end up snowy.  Such a 500H anomaly pattern would suggest enough cold air for Miller A type storms. 

Yea recently it really does seem that where the nino is centered really matters, with most east based nino's actually being pretty warm.  But even if its a central pacific nino there are still enough duds in the set to not just assume "cold/snowy" winter.  But of all the possible enso conditions it does seem to be the one that gives us the highest probability for a snowy winter.  I suspect its mjo related as a central pac nino centers the tropical forcing in a spot that cycles the mjo through the favorable phases more often then not.  

As for this euro seasonal run, I am sure some people are less than thrilled about the surface temps on this run, but not all "near normals" are created equal.  It seems obvious to me looking at the individual months that somewhere in January there is a thaw that might offset the colder periods around it.  There is enough of a trough in the east even in January that it probably isnt a totally weasted month but given the hostile NAO that month when it gets warm it might get very warm.   And we don't need arctic cold to get snow.  But that h5 should mean when we do get some cold the storm track would be favorable and an active stj.  There is way more to like then not like about this run imo.  But people can keep freaking out because there are not pretty blues on the 2m temp maps over their house.  

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I have December and January.  I had to clear space to post.   Don't have March sorry  IMG_7520.PNG.983d522998f561bc19a045086b05cb29.PNGIMG_7521.PNG.ad7760a1598d60780d67e12a3c891441.PNG

You don't seem too high on the H5 for January but I actually think it looks very good. Higher heights extending almost across the whole of Canada and low pressure anomalies running through the south and up the coast suggestive of the mean storm track, I think this look has good potential. I can see both bowling bowls rolling across the CONUS underneath during the stronger blocking periods as well as Miller As at almost any given time with the weakness running up/off the coast.

eta: And it may not be a particularly cold look but January can be very forgiving when it comes to temps especially with the suggested storm track being shown.

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

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Just now, showmethesnow said:

You don't seem too high on the H5 for January but I actually think it looks very good. Higher heights extending almost across the whole of Canada and low pressure anomalies running through the south and up the coast suggestive of the mean storm track, I think this look has good potential. I can see both bowling bowls rolling across the CONUS underneath during the stronger blocking periods as well as Miller As at almost any given time with the weakness running up/off the coast.

I don't think that January h5 looks bad but the ridge in Canada extends a bit further east then I like and that positive nao probably will mean a warm up during any relaxation. I could see a period where given that nao and Canadian ridge configuration that warm air floods across the Conus. But I definitely don't take it as a shutout month. It's a better look then we have had most of the time lately. But compared to the epic looking months around it on this run it's the runt. But I don't mind the possibility of a thaw period. Every analog says it's coming. And it would explain the overall washed out average temps for the winter. I don't have individual month temps but I'd bet money dec and feb are cold and January warm. That doesn't mean the whole month is toast but if 2 weeks are a torch and 2 weeks are near or slightly below normal but we get a snow event in there...and dec and feb are rocking...who cares. But that would explain how temps end up near normal with that h5 mean. I'm just speculating. 

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OSUmetstud

OSUmetstud

Posted
Posted
56 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

I would guess because I know several people in my PSU circle of friends have subscriptions to wxbell.  I currently do not.  I can verify they are authentic though because I found some maps posted on twitter and they match up perfectly.  

I have a wxbell subscription. I never have seen the euro seasonal on there, only the weeklies. 

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