Winter 2018-19 Is Coming

[Bob Chill]

25 minutes ago, nj2va said:

 

He’s going all in with 200% avg snowfall. No complaints here.

 

Mod Nino's are the only time you can go big and have better than inside straight odds in the MA/SE. 

I want it all this year. Multiple miller a's and enough blocking to screw the NE. Been 9 years... WDI is positive

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Maybe a mid November snowstorm. Looks like 95-96 on models

[MJO812]

DT going big

DT is going with a very snowy and cold winter for the east coast. 

 

 

https://youtu.be/BsSvbF1IcXs

[frd]

1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

DT going big

DT is going with a very snowy and cold winter for the east coast. 

 

 

https://youtu.be/BsSvbF1IcXs

He said this is the first time in his 20 years of winter seasonal forecasts that he is going 200 % snowfall ............ yippee !!!!!!!  

 

[frd]

9 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Mod Nino's are the only time you can go big and have better than inside straight odds in the MA/SE. 

I want it all this year. Multiple miller a's and enough blocking to screw the NE. Been 9 years... WDI is positive

You are right on spot with that Bob ! What I just read and found very surprising is, that this is the first time in many, many years that Canada has had back to back cold months since the early 1990"s. 

From that I guess not surprising when you look at the North America snow advance, very good indeed. And, to take a step further, I posted a few days back the Euro with incredibel snow cover continuing to advance South going to mid-December into the US ! 

Also, the snow depth in Eastern Canada is like, wow ! 

I really feel this raises the chance for at least one true Arctic  blast. And, from there maybe we lay the foundation ( feedback )  for a deep winter period where we keep the snow on the ground for weeks.

 

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, frd said:

He said this is the first time in his 20 years of winter seasonal forecasts that he is going 200 % snowfall ............ yippee !!!!!!!  

 

Hopefully everyone from the Mid Atlantic to SNE cashes in.

[Maestrobjwa]

29 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Hopefully everyone from the Mid Atlantic to SNE cashes in.

When's the last time that's happened, though? Where both places cash in at once? (And doesn't SNE cash in every year--with many of the storms that miss us hitting them? Lol I mean as long as we BOTH cash in, okay...but them cashing in at our expense? I think we've seen enough of that just over the last two years alone!)

[Maestrobjwa]

10 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Mod Nino's are the only time you can go big and have better than inside straight odds in the MA/SE. 

I want it all this year. Multiple miller a's and enough blocking to screw the NE. Been 9 years... WDI is positive

That's what I said...how can he go big like that when we don't know for sure if it'll even reach mod Niño status? (Unless he thinks that it will?)

[nj2va]

Hopefully everyone from the Mid Atlantic to SNE cashes in.

 

Could care less north of the M/D line. Would be ok if mid Atlantic gets crushed and PHL/north smokes cirrus for three months.

 

Snow is some serious sht.

[aldie 22]

Just now, nj2va said:

 

Could care less north of the M/D line. Would be ok if mid Atlantic gets crushed and PHL/north smokes citrus for three months.

Snow is some serious sht.

 

Smoking oranges is some real deal stuff

[nj2va]

Smoking oranges is some real deal stuff

Orange peels for days.

[Yanksfan]

9 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

That's what I said...how can he go big like that when we don't know for sure if it'll even reach mod Niño status? (Unless he thinks that it will?)

Check out the daily ENSO numbers. There's a very good chance this Nino will achieve moderate status. That being said, DT going with a 200% call is bold. He normally likes to hedge a bit. With him being so gungho this time around gets my attention.

[Maestrobjwa]

8 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said:

Check out the daily ENSO numbers. There's a very good chance this Nino will achieve moderate status. That being said, DT going with a 200% call is bold. He normally likes to hedge a bit. With him being so gungho this time around gets my attention.

Ya think so? If it does reach that...then hey, I'd be willing to go (mostly) all in too! (Anybody else have any thoughts on it reaching moderate status? @psuhoffman, @Bob Chill?)

[frd]

9 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said:

Check out the daily ENSO numbers. There's a very good chance this Nino will achieve moderate status. That being said, DT going with a 200% call is bold. He normally likes to hedge a bit. With him being so gungho this time around gets my attention.

Also, the location of the warmest SSTs in the Pac is prime as well, as you know. Things  are progressing nicely.  

I read on the New England forum that Typhoon Yutu was a big factor in the rise in the SSTs the last week out there .

Also, the rise in SSTs came too in a month of mostly positive SOI values, October, that it . However, today the SOI index was negative.

And, add one last thing about the Nino, in a ocean - atmosphere manner, the atmospheric responses as of last week was still a combo of Nina and El Nino , per Bluewave.  He thought this was possibly  causing some issues in  the recent drastic modeling chages in the 6 to 10 day I believe. 

[frd]

7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Ya think so? If it does reach that...then hey, I'd be willing to go (mostly) all in too! (Anybody else have any thoughts on it reaching moderate status? @psuhoffman, @Bob Chill?)

From what I hear, a  low end moderate may be appearing more likely recently, as in the last week or so. That plus location of the warmest SSTs is very good, especially for us in this region.  

[poolz1]

Subsurface warmth is there and one stout wwb should push this Nino to a solidweak status with moderate status very possible imo.
The dominoes have already started to tumble when it comes to the Nino effecting the winter patern... One more look at the euro seasonal this week and then it's watching lr ens and chips fall mode.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G920A using Tapatalk

[WxUSAF]

DT and JB both going for a bonkers winter. Lord help us.

[Eskimo Joe]

6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

DT and JB both going for a bonkers winter. Lord help us.

TBH, when dont they go bonkers.

[WxUSAF]

10 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

TBH, when dont they go bonkers.

For JB that’s true, but DT doesn’t do that for his seasonal forecasts at least. 

[frd]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

For JB that’s true, but DT doesn’t do that for his seasonal forecasts at least. 

Exactly, DT is the one that calls out JB a lot.  He ( DT ) must like what he sees. I am awaiting his more indepth video. 

As to be honest , DT and for that matter JB, are in the general GROUP think camp so far. Many varied and great mets are callig for a decent winter and more than half are going with the 

idea of the back loaded winter.  I believe DT stated, if my memory serves me correct, that 7 of the last 10 March months have been colder and snowier. I can see that, summer  seems to extend into late October and winter lasts longer.   

Oh and DT's outlook included the month of March  2019 as well. 

[frd]

Wow to this.

Wonder the impact to the NAO long-term from this event. 

The record is from  1976, imagine that. 

 

 

[Bob Chill]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

HEY

Can you at least pretend that you're pulling for mby not to get screwed?

I'm too honest and don't like lying through my teeth. Sorry dude...

[Maestrobjwa]

7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm too honest and don't like lying through my teeth. Sorry dude...

I was trying to sugarcoat my answer, lolol It is difficult to muster up good snow tidings for up there knowing full well that their success often comes at our expense...lol)

[Bob Chill]

36 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

Well damn. I see how it is. 

Hard to be mad though. I’m the enemy now. 

I’d disavow my brother if he ever tried to steal my snow.

Nah, not the enemy. We'll always like you around here. I just hope your yard gets pummeled with heavy rain and/or fireballs and stuff. 

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

4 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

DT and JB both going for a bonkers winter. Lord help us.

Throw in Paul Dorian from Perspecta Weather.

[nw baltimore wx]

I'm going to continue to temper my enthusiasm until I hear that HM and Don Sutherland are on board.

[psuhoffman]

5 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Ya think so? If it does reach that...then hey, I'd be willing to go (mostly) all in too! (Anybody else have any thoughts on it reaching moderate status? @psuhoffman, @Bob Chill?)

Based on current trends and guidance I think it's likely to top out right near the weak/moderate divide.  But I don't think it matters. All the fuss is based off the pure snowfall means for "weak" vs "moderate" ninos. But when I looked at the actual years the weak nino set was skewed lower by the years that were borderline neutral/weak. We are already past that threat imo. There didn't seem to be a discernible difference between the years in the set that peaked beteeen .7 and 1.5 on the ONI which is likely the range we will top out.  There was one bad year in that set (1995) but it was a stronger than some great snow years.  What we don't want is for the nino to top out around .5-.6 as those were the years that were pretty bad but we seem already to be moving well past that. Unless the nino collapses I wouldn't worry. 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

yeah, it's generally wetter than normal

[showmethesnow]

At camp the last few days so very hard to dig deep into the models but from what I am seeing I might just change my thoughts on when I think the base winter pattern sets in and winter kicks into gear. When I see what looks to be a static +PNA already setting up and extending up through Alaska with what look to be a serious attempt to flip the EPO negative I have to wonder if it will shortly be game on. Add in the fact that we are seeing the mean trough already shifting eastward, the PV being forced into NEastern Canada and now a much stronger signal for the subtropical jet kicking in (and a strong one at that) it is hard not to consider that winter may be ready to show it's hand. Am also liking what I am seeing in the Atlantic, not to mention other aspects of the pattern that I find as positives as well. 

Now at this point the models in the longer range are getting a washed out look as there is most likely conflicting signals. But within that look there is still a fairly good signal for what I believe will be the base state this winter that we are evolving towards. The question in my mind is whether this will be a quicker process then I originally thought. If in the coming days we see the signal for this base pattern continue to strengthen I would have to believe that the switch has been flipped and it is game on for mid/late November vs my original thoughts of early/mid December. And when I refer to game on I am including into the cities as well despite what climo might suggest. The great snow pack in Canada will provide a great source of cold to overcome climo in this case. 

 

[CAPE]

15 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said:

I'm going to continue to temper my enthusiasm until I hear that HM and Don Sutherland are on board.

I am optimistic overall. Not so much for any short term potential. I could see a winter storm happening for the highlands and up into NE over the next 2 weeks. My focus is towards early December, and how things evolve up top with the AO, and also if there are any hints of early NA blocking. I think we will probably have to be patient with the latter, but we really want a -AO to establish in December. Since there is a strong correlation between the AO and NAO, if a -AO gets established and persists, NA blocking will likely develop at some point.