Winter 2018-19 Is Coming

[Bob Chill]

29 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Gonna be a long 30 days...lol Now I am one prone to look at trends that may not have a scientific based but seem to correlate. Based on the chart I just shared...my expectations are tempered. But if you go full weenie I'm goin' with ya!! Lol 

It's pretty simple leading into Dec. Just follow the AO. Strong + or - AOs in December tend to set the tone for all of met winter. Whichever strong state prevails in Dec has a high probability of continuing. Needs to be at least +/- 1.25SD to have a strong correlation. Neg AOs have the highest correlation to AN snow in our region. Most important out of all teleconnections. 

If the AO isn't anomalous then it's not a good indicator. We'll know how Dec is going to start within a month. Before that I don't really pay much attention because long lead forecasting has a low success rate 

[psuhoffman]

14 hours ago, yoda said:

We take and run

Add 5" to each zone, and extend the 15-25 zone a lot further southeast and that's my thinking. 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

The gulf stream is much slower. Widespread +2 to +6 anomalies in the Atlantic. Shift snow areas south everywhere as new climate. 

[PCT_ATC]

1 hour ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

The gulf stream is much slower. Widespread +2 to +6 anomalies in the Atlantic. Shift snow areas south everywhere as new climate. 

i see some of us are starting out exactly where we left off last year which leaves the rest of us scratching our collective heads

[Chris78]

4 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Add 5" to each zone, and extend the 15-25 zone a lot further southeast and that's my thinking. 

I really like your thinking! Lol

[raindancewx]

I'd heavily advise looking at the El Nino years with Gulf Coast major hurricane hits, there are not many - 1941, 1957, 1965, 1969, 2004...but the blend is pretty close for October. Tells you something about the Atlantic, MJO and El Nino. My rainfall totals here since July are virtually identical to 1957, 1972, 2004 (x3), 2015

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, raindancewx said:

I'd heavily advise looking at the El Nino years with Gulf Coast major hurricane hits, there are not many - 1941, 1957, 1965, 1969, 2004...but the blend is pretty close for October. Tells you something about the Atlantic, MJO and El Nino. My rainfall totals here since July are virtually identical to 1957, 1972, 2004 (x3), 2015

All years that preceded winters that were at least average snowfall...Welp, I'll take that over nothing at all, lol

And yeah, I was a little surprised at how active the hurricane season was...then again I'm a weather novice, lol I just thought that with enso approaching El Nino, the season would be much less active!

Now...you said "that tells you something about the Atlantic, MJO, and El Niño"...could you elaborate a bit? What does it tell us?

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

3 hours ago, PCT_ATC said:

i see some of us are starting out exactly where we left off last year which leaves the rest of us scratching our collective heads

Yeah, you'll want to keep that one in. The global warming phase of 1998-2017 is over. 

[raindancewx]

I think Gulf Hurricanes are an indicator of the strength of the Bermuda high and the high over the SW deserts. Even in non-El Ninos, it is almost like the wake from the 920 mb hurricane shows up in the SW in the following Feb-Mar if the Gulf Coast is smoked by a major hurricane. The precipitation pattern in the El Nino major-hurricane hits Gulf years implies the Nor'easters take kind of weird tracks in the winter, almost like they go further east than usual and then head up N/NNE, which isn't necessarily the greatest pattern for big snow storms.

[psuhoffman]

18 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

I think Gulf Hurricanes are an indicator of the strength of the Bermuda high and the high over the SW deserts. Even in non-El Ninos, it is almost like the wake from the 920 mb hurricane shows up in the SW in the following Feb-Mar if the Gulf Coast is smoked by a major hurricane. The precipitation pattern in the El Nino major-hurricane hits Gulf years implies the Nor'easters take kind of weird tracks in the winter, almost like they go further east than usual and then head up N/NNE, which isn't necessarily the greatest pattern for big snow storms.

The years you posted had too varied results to say. Some of those were mediocre snowfall years and some were blockbusters. No real duds in the group though. 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, raindancewx said:

I think Gulf Hurricanes are an indicator of the strength of the Bermuda high and the high over the SW deserts. Even in non-El Ninos, it is almost like the wake from the 920 mb hurricane shows up in the SW in the following Feb-Mar if the Gulf Coast is smoked by a major hurricane. The precipitation pattern in the El Nino major-hurricane hits Gulf years implies the Nor'easters take kind of weird tracks in the winter, almost like they go further east than usual and then head up N/NNE, which isn't necessarily the greatest pattern for big snow storms.

Ack...sounds too much like what the Niña induced the last two years...don't even, lol But like @psuhoffmansaid...no real "duds" on that list...average was the minimum amount...so at least that's something, lol

[showmethesnow]

9 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

Yeah, you'll want to keep that one in. The global warming phase of 1998-2017 is over. 

Ah, so now we must be entering a global cooling phase.

[Bob Chill]

Not a fan of the cfs weekly or monthly right now. Predominate +NAO through all met winter. I'll just ignore it for now but not something I want to see.

[Poimen]

8 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Not a fan of the cfs weekly or monthly right now. Predominate +NAO through all met winter. I'll just ignore it for now but not something I want to see.

From Judah Cohen: 

CFS predicting big changes in the #PolarVortex (PV) between now and December with significant disrupting of the PV over time.  If (and a really big if!) accurate this would favor a quick start to the winter season with multiple episodes of #cold and #snow.

[showmethesnow]

 

15 hours ago, nj2va said:

In fact, many are rooting for a warm November -- haven't seen the data but does that support an AN snowfall for us?

14 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

Some people swear by it and can throw data up to support their claim. I really haven't looked into it myself but I can see where it might have some merit. But thinking about it right now I wouldn't be surprised if you found many of these winters they throw out there were in fact during an Nino. With a weaker northern Jet I believe Ninos favor a warmer start to the winter season and then evolve colder. Ninas on the other hand feature a strong/dominate northern stream so they quite often have a quick onset of cold. Then throw in that Ninos are typically our more prolific winters when it comes to snow and Ninas aren't this pretty much would support this belief (Warm November/AN snow). Of course this is just a guess on my part without looking back at the data.

Thought I would throw this over into the winter discussion thread. Considering it looks as if it is close to a lock that the first half of November will be above normal temps wise and also that I am getting fairly confident that this warm period will stretch through most of November if not into early December I thought it would have some relevance to the winter discussion.

Decided to look back at historical data a little to see if my above premise might have some merit. Am using only the years 1981 up to present because the baseline (temps) used for these charts were changed. Besides the hard facts on warmth/cold I also want to look into what people perceive as to whether a month is warm or cold.

What I found was that El Nino's slightly favored above average temps for the mid-Atlantic as evidenced by where the warm anomalies were setting up.

 

Now the above nino temps seem pretty benign and aren't in your face with warmth. But remember I am also talking perception as well. When you look at the below 500's for ninos in November that ridging on the east coast/Atlantic would suggest that we typically see surges of at least moderate warmth if not occasionally extreme. Nothing about that setup suggests bouts of moderate to extreme cold though. And this is where the perception comes in. People remember the extremes and not so much what is being experienced the rest of the time. So though the month may average out to normal or even slightly below their perception is skewed by the handful of days that may have been scorching. So a typical November in a Nino is probably perceived as warm by most.

 

Now Ninas favor slightly below average temps for the mid-Atlantic.

 

The above is not in your face with the cold. But again let us look at perception. Below we have the 500's for Nina Novembers. Now this look is the opposite of Ninos and suggests we would see moderate to occasional extreme cold shots running through our region. Nothing about this look suggests moderate or extreme warm shots. So the perception of Nina Novembers would be one of cold for most.

 

Interestingly enough neutrals came in neutral on temps.

 

And looking at the 500's for neutrals this is a pretty benign setup where we typically would not see extremes (cold/hot) one way or the other. So the perception of this would probably be one of a normal November for most.

 

Now let us look at snowfall. Nino snowfall since 1981 averages 27.9 inches a year. Ninas are 16.5. (***Note if we drop the winter of 95/96, which was a highly anomalous year, Nina avg. actually comes in at 12.7 inches) And Neutrals are at 16.3. 

So lets break down the above.

ENSO       Factual Temps              Perceived Temps    Snowfall(avg is 20.1)

________________________________________________________________________

Nino         slightly above             Warm               Above

Nina         slightly below             Cold                 Below

Neutral      avg                           Avg                 Below

 

So looking at everything I would say there is some factual evidence, though not overwhelming, to suggest that Nino November favor slightly above temps for November. Whereas Ninas favors slightly below November temps. I think the bigger thing here though is that of perception. El Nino Novembers are probably typically seen as warm to very warm and Ninas as cold to very cold. So to get to the base question 'do warm Novembers favor above normal snowfall?'. I would have to say yes especially when it comes to perception.

 

[frd]

I am surprised the waters West of Aussie are still so cold and I know some mets have spoken abou this, and how this might have some effect on the MJO phases this upcoming winter.   

Favoring certain phases over others.  

 

[psuhoffman]

11 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Not a fan of the cfs weekly or monthly right now. Predominate +NAO through all met winter. I'll just ignore it for now but not something I want to see.

Fixed

I honestly have not even looked at the CFS 

[psuhoffman]

9 minutes ago, frd said:

I am surprised the waters West of Aussie are still so cold and I know some mets have spoken abou this, and how this might have some effect on the MJO phases this upcoming winter.   

Favoring certain phases over others.  

 

I am not an expert on the MJO but there has been speculation from some mets that the combination of the warm central pacific and Indian Ocean combined with the cold near Australia would favor the cold phases of the MJO in the winter.   JB has certainly been hitting on that as a major contributor to his winter forecast so take it with a grain of salt.  Good to see other less biased sources saying similar though, might mean it has some cred. 

[showmethesnow]

16 minutes ago, frd said:

I am surprised the waters West of Aussie are still so cold and I know some mets have spoken abou this, and how this might have some effect on the MJO phases this upcoming winter.   

Favoring certain phases over others.  

 

Works for me. Now if we can get rid of 6 and 7 as well.

eta: for a basic understanding of MJO. 

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/what-mjo-and-why-do-we-care

 

[showmethesnow]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Fixed

I honestly have not even looked at the CFS 

Don't look, it has been pretty ugly for awhile now.

[frd]

6 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Don't look, it has been pretty ugly for awhile now.

If the model can not forecast temps correctly,  then why even bother looking at the NAO / blocking from it which is even more complex and hard to predict at long leads.  But, I understand though, it would be nice for it to show some - NAO blocking. 

[frd]

This is interesting to see and fits whats going on presently.  Some here a while back asked about SSWE and when they happen and if they are favored during Ninos or Ninas, well this post by Eric Webb does not answer that but does mention that they are more likely during the QBO phase changes from eQBO to wQBO.  

 

 

 

 

[frd]

More from Eric this time on the El Nino and the global AAM, for those who enjoy the STJ 

 

[showmethesnow]

15 minutes ago, frd said:

If the model can not forecast temps correctly,  then why even bother looking at the NAO / blocking from it which is even more complex and hard to predict at long leads.  But, I understand though, it would be nice for it to show some - NAO blocking. 

To be honest the height patterns it has been throwing out recently have looked screwy to me. Doesn't mean they aren't right, but to me they look off. GFS in the past has had a better handle on Northern Stream dominate winters (Ninas) and struggled with an active southern stream (Ninos) so maybe we are seeing that roll over into the CFS. At this point what it is spitting out is very low on my list of concerns when it comes to winter. Hell, to be truthful it doesn't even make my list as a concern.

eta: Gfs has seen some upgrades recently so it may handle southern streams better then it has in the past. 

[frd]

2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

To be honest the height patterns it has been throwing out recently have looked screwy to me. Doesn't mean they aren't right, but to me they look off. GFS has a better handle on Northern Stream dominate winters (Ninas) and struggles with an active southern stream (Ninos) so maybe we are seeing that roll over into the CFS. At this point what it is spitting out is very low on my list of concerns when it comes to winter. Hell, to be truthful it doesn't even make my list as a concern.

To be honest I know most here don't read and put much faith into JB as the consensus is hype and snow, but once in a while his videos on the Daily summary are very good when he does not talk about climate change on and on ..... 

Well, last week the focus one day were the CFS runs for October from Sept and basically the accuracy of the model itself and versus other models, ie, the Euro..

That was a great short video and it really showed you at  that at this particular time the CFS did not  do so great to put it lightly.  I guess bottom line I rather look at the JMA, Ukmet, Euro , etc. 

We all long for a total consensus so I will dance in the streets when the CFS shows big dog blocking for us at leads :-) 

 

[psuhoffman]

8 minutes ago, frd said:

This is interesting to see and fits whats going on presently.  Some here a while back asked about SSWE and when they happen and if they are favored during Ninos or Ninas, well this post by Eric Webb does not answer that but does mention that they are more likely during the QBO phase changes .  

 

 

 

 

I know there is a correlation with the QBO, but I am not so sure how useful it always is to predicting the winter.  Everytime I have drilled down on the QBO for a specific winter I have found way too much contradicting signals to have much use.  I do not know why this is, and I am not going to spend the time to figure it out right now.  For instance not all blocking is equal for our snow chances.  And if the QBO is more correlated to blocking in non winter months it would be less useful to a winter forecast.  And perhaps there are specific combinations with other factors where it is more correlated.  But... this is what is pertinent to THIS winter

Taking all el nino years except the super nino years (they seem to be their own beast so taking out years like 1998 and 2016) and looking for similar QBO years where there was a phase change form east to west leading into it...we get 5 years.  Here is how close they were and how they played out

1957-58 the phase change was in summer not fall and it ended up a blockbuster winter

1962-64 the phase change was in summer not fall and it ended up a blockbuster winter

1977-78 the phase change was in the fall, very similar qbo match to this year, ended up a good snow year

1987-88 the phase change was in summer not fall, ended up a mediocre snow year

1994-95 the phase change was in fall, very similar to this year, ended up a bad snow year

So if we look at all 5 el ninos with somewhat similar QBO phase changes 2 were blockbuster winters, one was good, one was mediocre, and one sucked.

If we look at only the 2 with a fall phase change, both were modoki, and one was good and one bad.  But I have no idea if the phase change being in summer of fall even matters a lick.

If we filter it by just the 4 modoki ninos that had a summer or fall phase change from east to west QBO then we have 2 great winters, one good, and one bad.

So...I know the statistics that show the correlation between the qbo and blocking...but I don't see how that data is ominous in any way regarding our snow chances and the current el nino/qbo phases.  I have done similar data research in past years and always found a similarly ambiguous or useless result regarding the QBO.  Maybe someone smarter then me can tell me what I am missing but I have always found using purely the QBO to be too weak a correlation to snowfall for our location to be of much use.  

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, frd said:

To be honest I know most here don't read and put much faith into JB as the consensus is hype and snow, but once in a while his videos on the Daily summary are very good when he does not talk about climate change on and on ..... 

Well, last week the focus one day were the CFS runs for October from Sept and basically the accuracy of the model itself and versus other models, ie, the Euro..

That was a great short video and it really showed you at  that at this particular time the CFS did not  do so great to put it lightly.  I guess bottom line I rather look at the JMA, Ukmet, Euro , etc. 

We all long for a total consensus so I will dance in the streets when the CFS shows big dog blocking for us at leads :-) 

 

I don't doubt his base knowledge.  He knows his stuff.  The problem is I also know "enough" to know when he is full of bleep and I have caught him either exaggerating, hyping, or flat out misleading enough times that he has no credibility.  So sometimes he has a point, and there are plenty of times when what he is saying is fine, but he is useless to many because unless you know when he is being honest or when he is hyping to make $$$ or fit a political agenda you cannot trust him.  

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

To be honest the height patterns it has been throwing out recently have looked screwy to me. Doesn't mean they aren't right, but to me they look off. GFS has a better handle on Northern Stream dominate winters (Ninas) and struggles with an active southern stream (Ninos) so maybe we are seeing that roll over into the CFS. At this point what it is spitting out is very low on my list of concerns when it comes to winter. Hell, to be truthful it doesn't even make my list as a concern.

I have not been paying attention to the CFS for probably the last 2-3 years but what you just said is part of why I stopped paying attention too it.  It's one thing to be wrong, but I found it's often wrong in just crazy ways.  It would have conflicting pattern signals and height patterns that were unlikely to actually verify, and usually wouldn't.  In short it seemed to be crap.  To be fair I don't put much stock into other seasonal climate models either.  All of them have very low verification scores.  

[psuhoffman]

Back to the one big thorn in the side of the analogs... in general all the BEST analogs to this year when looking at the current and expected patterns are pretty good in terms of snowfall.  Except 1994-95.  So looking at what might be the issue there, the only thing that sticks out is that in the fall of 1994 there was a huge cold blob where our warm blob in the north pacific is.  I don't know if that alone was the difference between our good snowfall results in all the other modoki nino years with similar other pattern indices, but its the only thing that sticks out as vastly different from right now.  Unfortunately I cannot find good SST maps going back to the other similar nino years in the 1950's 60's and 70's.  More recently that warm/cold pool has been somewhat important in +QBO years.  2014 for instance.  But 1995 was definitely too close a match in all the categories to right now to feel totally comfortable but perhaps it was just a fluke since the majority of winters following similar fall patterns to this year turned out very well for us.  

[WxUSAF]

FWIW, Mitch is very bullish on this winter per his posts on phillywx. Expects 30-40” at his house near BWI.