Roger Smith Posted October 25, 2018 Share Posted October 25, 2018 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: What was your methodology? Research model results, based on index values. Added some subjective interpretation given that El Nino will be going up against a persistent looking anomalous cold set-up in east-central Canada that is already well ahead of seasonal normals (Hudson Bay for example running 3-4 deg below average SST and close to freezing up 2 months early). I think the overall pattern will be the typical El Nino in west and south but with a tighter jet emerging from northwest into the central plains states and taking a wide turn, not rebounding until clear of the east coast much of the time. The index values suggested that might relax in early January pumping up the warmth that will otherwise be suppressed to the south. I don't see the overall forecast as hugely different from the outlooks I have seen in any case. The main detail that may be different is the much above normal temps in early January and late February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted October 26, 2018 Share Posted October 26, 2018 3 hours ago, yoda said: I forget which meteorologist it was last night... but it was the 11pm news on either channel 4 or 9... and he said if this were winter time we would be talking about 10-15 inches of snow on the way for our region Oh stahp.....you're killin' me, dude! Lol That being said...any data on whether nor'easters in October meant anything at all for the winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted October 26, 2018 Share Posted October 26, 2018 6 hours ago, Roger Smith said: Here's my stab in the dark ... December will feature some colder than average periods and a good chance for perhaps one decent snowfall event, that most likely around Dec 20-22. January will torch for the first half, record highs are possible. Then it will turn much colder in stages. There may be a second decent snowfall event in late January. February will retain the late January cold briefly then turn warmer rather steadily, becoming much above normal late in the month. March will continue this very warm trend. Overall then a mildish winter with some brief but possibly tolerable winter spells, snowfall near normal generally despite some of the better intervals (climatology) being too warm. If Roger is bearish we are F’d. There are times when we got a wintry mix and he predicted 20”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 26, 2018 Share Posted October 26, 2018 2 minutes ago, ravensrule said: If Roger is bearish we are F’d. There are times when we got a wintry mix and he predicted 20”. Nah, its the opposite IMO. He'd predict like 10 inches from a clipper... so if he predicts small amounts, then we should see big amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 26, 2018 Share Posted October 26, 2018 Should be interesting to see what Channel 9 thinks for this winter re snow https://mobile.twitter.com/hbwx/status/1055824532018290688 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted October 26, 2018 Share Posted October 26, 2018 This is good indeed and I know last week HM alluded to the NH progression and the formation of the Ural anticyclone. He posted as well on his Twitter feed he dislikes talk of the strat when it pertains to things that are what he calls trivial. But, I still like to follow preconditions to the PV weakenings or displacements. I find it interesting nonetheless. I always value HM's insights. I followed him back on Wright Weather on AOL dialup back in the days :-) On a side note, from Judah this AM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted October 26, 2018 Share Posted October 26, 2018 For those who keep an eye on such things: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted October 26, 2018 Share Posted October 26, 2018 30 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: For those who keep an eye on such things: After the last few years...it might be advisable NOT to look at such things...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 26, 2018 Share Posted October 26, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted October 26, 2018 Share Posted October 26, 2018 28 minutes ago, yoda said: Lol at the forecast for western MD...35-100!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted October 26, 2018 Share Posted October 26, 2018 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Lol at the forecast for western MD...35-100!!! Not a forecast. That map is average. They will release their forecast tonight during the 11PM news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted October 26, 2018 Share Posted October 26, 2018 Wouldn't say that I am bearish about this winter, just seeing a mix of good and bad patterns, when good (mid-Dec, late Jan) you could get some decent snowfalls. I am going to be predicting near or just slightly above average amounts in the contest when that opens up. But don't anyone be too surprised if it hits 70 or higher in early January is the main message I bring in case December starts looking good. Any December snow won't stay on the ground until the next snowfall event anyway. But I don't think it will be non-stop torch like 2012. And sometimes in a warm March pattern you can get a brief reversal and slip in a bonus snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted October 26, 2018 Share Posted October 26, 2018 2 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: Wouldn't say that I am bearish about this winter, just seeing a mix of good and bad patterns, when good (mid-Dec, late Jan) you could get some decent snowfalls. I am going to be predicting near or just slightly above average amounts in the contest when that opens up. But don't anyone be too surprised if it hits 70 or higher in early January is the main message I bring in case December starts looking good. Any December snow won't stay on the ground until the next snowfall event anyway. But I don't think it will be non-stop torch like 2012. And sometimes in a warm March pattern you can get a brief reversal and slip in a bonus snowfall. Without any scientific reasoning you can almost always predict less than historical average snow for the MA and usually be right regardless of the setup. So many things have to go our way for it to snow especially 95 corridor. I’ll predict a tick below normal maybe just not 2 ticks this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted October 27, 2018 Share Posted October 27, 2018 This October noreaster is sure nice. A good part of 2000-2010 never had such a cold/rainy scenario in October, when it gets cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 27, 2018 Share Posted October 27, 2018 5 hours ago, North Balti Zen said: For those who keep an eye on such things: I looked up a term in the dictionary earlier: Self-aggrandizing: DTWxRisk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted October 27, 2018 Share Posted October 27, 2018 Here’s Toppers forecast https://www.wusa9.com/mobile/article/weather/weather-blog/dc-winter-weather-forecast/65-607294606 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 27, 2018 Share Posted October 27, 2018 2 minutes ago, nj2va said: Here’s Toppers forecasthttps://www.wusa9.com/mobile/article/weather/weather-blog/dc-winter-weather-forecast/65-607294606 We take and run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted October 27, 2018 Share Posted October 27, 2018 2 minutes ago, yoda said: We take and run No complaints from me in that map. #allin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 27, 2018 Share Posted October 27, 2018 Just now, nj2va said: No complaints from me in that map. #allin Wes is in that 5 to 10 inch zone though... he tosses the map lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted October 27, 2018 Share Posted October 27, 2018 9 hours ago, yoda said: Wes is in that 5 to 10 inch zone though... he tosses the map lol I grew up in northern Calvert. Except for a once-in-a-while event, that place was terrible for a snow lover. I would love Topper's forecast to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted October 27, 2018 Share Posted October 27, 2018 I don’t think we would ever see a more bullish prediction from a mainstream weather source this early in the season. That looks just fine to me. I hope it domes in multiple 2-4 inch events vice one big one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted October 27, 2018 Share Posted October 27, 2018 1 hour ago, BristowWx said: I don’t think we would ever see a more bullish prediction from a mainstream weather source this early in the season. That looks just fine to me. I hope it domes in multiple 2-4 inch events vice one big one. Dare I say it reminds me of the leadup to 09-10? :ducks: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted October 27, 2018 Share Posted October 27, 2018 I know another variation of this was posted above but I like the chart here and looking ahead at the 31 st with the weather models it is possible after a brief Siberian warm up another bout of snow sweeps East and South and provides additional snow cover on the last two days of the month. So then you have a situation with a good ending with a rapid SAI and also a very good snowfall coverage in addition to snowfall advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted October 27, 2018 Share Posted October 27, 2018 23 minutes ago, nj2va said: Dare I say it reminds me of the leadup to 09-10? :ducks: Sure why not. I still think we dial up the despair index to 10 and work backwards...switch things up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted October 27, 2018 Share Posted October 27, 2018 As mentioned a couple days ago ....... a weakening PV is in the cards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted October 27, 2018 Share Posted October 27, 2018 11 hours ago, nj2va said: Here’s Toppers forecasthttps://www.wusa9.com/mobile/article/weather/weather-blog/dc-winter-weather-forecast/65-607294606 It's only above normal for those in the dark blue stripe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted October 27, 2018 Share Posted October 27, 2018 On 9/30/2018 at 12:11 AM, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: I added more years and another column for October precipitation leading into Modoki El Ninos. October precip relative to average @ DCA may give a good estimate of how good a winter we get! Modoki El Ninos (DCA) Winter SOI Winter Snow +/- Winter Snow Winter NAO Nov Temp Dec Temp Nov NAO Dec NAO Oct Precip 1952-53 Weak 8.3" - - - - - - 0.66" - 1953-54 Weak 18" + + - + + + 3.73" + 1958-59 Weak 4.9" - - N - + - 2.35" - 1976-77 Weak 11.1" - - - - + (N) - 7.76" + 1977-78 Weak 22.7" + N (+) + N / (-) N N 5.35" + 1979-80 Weak 20.1" + - + + + + 5.54" + 1986-87 Moderate 31.1" + N - + + + 2.01" - 1991-92 Strong 6.6" - + - + + + 2.03" - 1994-95 Weak/Moderate 10.1" - + + + N + 1.19" - 2002-03 Moderate 40.4" + N - - - N 5" + 2004-05 Weak 12.5" - N + N N + 1.74" - 2009-10 Moderate 46" + - + - + - 5.71" + @BTRWx's Thanks Giving Now that we're seeing our last precipitation for October...thought I'd repost your chart. Now uh...we're below normal...and according this, that only worked one time in 60 years preceding a Modoki: when it was moderate strength! All the weak ones seem to have failed... So...correlation or coincidence? If correlation...welp, may have to suffer one more winter, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 27, 2018 Share Posted October 27, 2018 Still a month away from a decent window into how winter starts but in my eyes the upcoming season has as good a chance as any for a good winter. If it still looks good in a month I'm going full weenie. Until then my weenie will remain under wraps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notvirga! Posted October 27, 2018 Share Posted October 27, 2018 1 hour ago, Sparky said: It's only above normal for those in the dark blue stripe. Yeah it's low for the mountains above 2000 feet for sure, but it's above average for the Shenandoah Valley. I guess it's average to slightly above for other areas---above for Frederick MD--and maybe slightly below for your area in Carroll. I have to think Topper wasn't really making an educated guess when it came to Western Maryland and Allegheny Mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted October 27, 2018 Share Posted October 27, 2018 31 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Still a month away from a decent window into how winter starts but in my eyes the upcoming season has as good a chance as any for a good winter. If it still looks good in a month I'm going full weenie. Until then my weenie will remain under wraps Gonna be a long 30 days...lol Now I am one prone to look at trends that may not have a scientific based but seem to correlate. Based on the chart I just shared...my expectations are tempered. But if you go full weenie I'm goin' with ya!! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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