frd Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 8 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: If we get a weak to moderate west based El Nino we'll at least have the ingredients in place. That's half the battle in these parts. There's nothing worse than wasting 2/3rds of our prime weeks in December and January with nothing but day 15 threats go poof as they draw closer. Looks like 3.4 going in reverse while the Eastern regions are LaNina like still. Seems from other forums and mets warming to resume in the West Pac in August. I have read that a weak EL Nino is likely maybe moderate but too early to tell about that still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted July 21, 2018 Share Posted July 21, 2018 On 7/19/2018 at 1:02 PM, Eskimo Joe said: If we get a weak to moderate west based El Nino we'll at least have the ingredients in place. That's half the battle in these parts. There's nothing worse than wasting 2/3rds of our prime weeks in December and January with nothing but day 15 threats go poof as they draw closer. You will get a west based mod Nino. You're not going to sleep much from early November to mid April. You'll be tracking snowstorm after snowstorm after snowstorm after snowstorm. People in the Mid Atlantic are going to be sick and tired of shoveling snow by New Years Eve 2018/2019. That will be just the appetizer. Wait til January 2019 gets going. Feb and Morch are going to be record setting, you will need the National Guard just to get out of the house from those monstrous drifts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted July 21, 2018 Share Posted July 21, 2018 Cant remember if snow cover advancing in late July is what we want or not??? Pretty sure it means a repeat of 09-10! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted July 21, 2018 Share Posted July 21, 2018 Surface precipitable water is pretty much way above average to stay across the Northern Hemisphere, like +3 sigma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted July 22, 2018 Share Posted July 22, 2018 Analogs are setting up nice so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted July 23, 2018 Share Posted July 23, 2018 Might have to do an epic TX to N Va snow chase in 5 months Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted July 24, 2018 Author Share Posted July 24, 2018 @mitchnick where are you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted July 24, 2018 Share Posted July 24, 2018 6 hours ago, WxUSAF said: @mitchnick where are you? There are some logical relationships that have this scenario somewhat more plausiable this year. Looking forward to the continued drop in solar activity as we near the solar minimum. Of note as well, is a somewhat different summer up North this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted July 24, 2018 Share Posted July 24, 2018 Mitchnick closed his account sometime back in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted July 24, 2018 Share Posted July 24, 2018 Things look good right now. I'm cautiously optimistic. But it's way too soon to feel excited. If things still look good come October into November I'll get more interested. I thought I would throw out some possibly relevant D.C. snowfall climo data regarding the recent snow drought and our prospects ahead. This is not meant to start an argument and is in no way meant to antagonize anyone. Everyone is entitled to feel any way they want about the weather. But I feel like the expectations might not be in line with our reality. The winters of 2016-17 & 2017-18 produced a measly 3.4" and 7.8" for a 2 year average of 5.6". They sucked. But it was not in any way an unusual 2 year period. Going back 21 years we have had 4 other such periods now that we're similar or worse. 1996-97 & 1997-98 3.4" avg 2000-01 & 2001-02. 5.3" avg 2007-08 & 2008-09. 6.2" avg 2011-12 @ 2012-13. 2.6" avg So we have had 5 periods in 20 years where we received significantly below average snowfall in back to back years And they have occurred at fairly regular intervals. 2 years, 5 years, 2 years, and 3 years apart So we typically have such a period every 2-5 years and after 3 straight above average years 2014-16 we were very much due. Good news is that following 3 previous periods we had a historically great winter. 2003, 2010, 2014. So the cyclical trends might be in our favor. But if we do score some good winters ahead (And I think we will) keep in mind that another 2 year suck fest is highly likely in only a few more years and it's not unusual or a sign the snow gods have forsaken us...it's just our climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 24, 2018 Share Posted July 24, 2018 I know others have said its just coincidence and no real correlation... but every 3 to 4 winters we always seem to have a "big" snowstorm of at least or around a foot of snow in the region. Years being 1979, 1983, 1987, (nothing between 1988 and 1992) 1993, 1996, 2000, 2003, 2006, 2009-2010, 2013, 2016... 2019? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted July 25, 2018 Share Posted July 25, 2018 Dozen analogs right now and will get pared down.. Very few baddies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted July 25, 2018 Share Posted July 25, 2018 On 7/19/2018 at 9:07 PM, Jebman said: This is going to be one of the best winters ever, simply because I will be out of state lol. Washington DC will end up with a total of 7 feet of snow on this upcoming season. Bank on it. You are great and what you did here will be missed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted July 25, 2018 Share Posted July 25, 2018 23 hours ago, Sparky said: Mitchnick closed his account sometime back in January. Why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted July 25, 2018 Share Posted July 25, 2018 16 minutes ago, das said: Why? I heard he needed to take a break from here, but not sure of the reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted July 25, 2018 Share Posted July 25, 2018 13 minutes ago, ravensrule said: I heard he needed to take a break from here, but not sure of the reason. ok, thanks. I hope he is/remains well. His contributions to the community were excellent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 25, 2018 Share Posted July 25, 2018 2 minutes ago, das said: ok, thanks. I hope he is/remains well. His contributions to the community were excellent. I think mappy would probably know more fwiw... but yeah I think he just needed a break -- I think we all did at times with the way the winter went around here lol. I hope he comes back for the winter, but I dunno if he will Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted July 25, 2018 Author Share Posted July 25, 2018 I know Mitch left, just wishing he hadn’t. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 25, 2018 Share Posted July 25, 2018 17 minutes ago, yoda said: I think mappy would probably know more fwiw... but yeah I think he just needed a break -- I think we all did at times with the way the winter went around here lol. I hope he comes back for the winter, but I dunno if he will i know as much as what has been stated here. he asked for his account to be closed. i think randy denied it though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 25, 2018 Share Posted July 25, 2018 10 minutes ago, mappy said: i know as much as what has been stated here. he asked for his account to be closed. i think randy denied it though Oh, okay. I apologize for making it seem like you knew more -- that's my fault. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted July 26, 2018 Share Posted July 26, 2018 8 hours ago, mappy said: i know as much as what has been stated here. he asked for his account to be closed. i think randy denied it though That’s correct. His account is still open. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted July 26, 2018 Share Posted July 26, 2018 High precip now heavily favors -NAO. I was thinking +PNA before but now it's leaning more -PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted July 26, 2018 Share Posted July 26, 2018 The spotless streak continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted July 26, 2018 Share Posted July 26, 2018 37 minutes ago, frd said: The spotless streak continues 2009? Hmmmm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 26, 2018 Share Posted July 26, 2018 10 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: 2009? Hmmmm.... Very boring winter that was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted July 26, 2018 Share Posted July 26, 2018 We are already into August in a few days. And six weeks or so we will actually be speaking about upcoming patterns and long long-range threats. We are in the final stretch of Summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted July 31, 2018 Share Posted July 31, 2018 On 7/26/2018 at 10:50 AM, frd said: The spotless streak continues Now it's up to 31, according to the one who tweeted this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted July 31, 2018 Share Posted July 31, 2018 On 7/26/2018 at 12:19 PM, Stormpc said: We are already into August in a few days. And six weeks or so we will actually be speaking about upcoming patterns and long long-range threats. We are in the final stretch of Summer. Yeah...but the GFS always shows a coastal bomb at hour 2304. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 31, 2018 Share Posted July 31, 2018 29 minutes ago, mattie g said: Yeah...but the GFS always shows a coastal bomb at hour 2304. As long as there is no SLP in the Great Lakes, I think we're good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Potvinsux Posted July 31, 2018 Share Posted July 31, 2018 https://unofficialnetworks.com/2018/07/30/noaa-el-nino-forecast-outlook-for-winter-2018-2019/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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