Winter 2018-19 Is Coming

[nj2va]

4 hours ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Advisory level precip in the mountains perhaps? 

What will likely prevent advisory will be the relatively warm ground temps unless it can come down hot and heavy.  I am excited to see snow though...P&C has 1” tomorrow night.

[yoda]

8 minutes ago, nj2va said:

What will likely prevent advisory will be the relatively warm ground temps unless it can come down hot and heavy.  I am excited to see snow tomorrow night though...P&C has 1” tomorrow night.

Pics will be needed if you can get some... pretty cool to see snow in October

 

[CAPE]

44 minutes ago, nj2va said:

What will likely prevent advisory will be the relatively warm ground temps unless it can come down hot and heavy.  I am excited to see snow tomorrow night though...P&C has 1” tomorrow night.

Might see a couple inches in your area and especially down towards Canaan. Enjoy!

[WEATHER53]

6 hours ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Advisory level precip in the mountains perhaps?

What are 850’’s?

Mid to late  October squalls up there can dump high amounts.

[arlwx]

For what it's worth, LWX is featuring a link to their winter weather page.

Featuring a chance for flakes in the Monterey VA area through Sunday morning.

[osfan24]

13 hours ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Advisory level precip in the mountains perhaps?

Northeast MD pummeled again! LOL.

[nj2va]

14 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Might see a couple inches in your area and especially down towards Canaan. Enjoy!

Yeah, favored areas towards Canaan could see 3”.  I’m looking at an inch or so since I’m below 3000’.  And I just bought a pair of skis..good timing

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

The pattern signals are so ideal that I'm just going to say that I expect November to heat up.

[Bob Chill]

All seasonal models are advertising a coupled +pna/-epo now during the majority of met winter. The euro weeklies get it going in November. We don't need sick blocking for that to work out. Just avoid a raging +ao/nao and good things will happen.

I need to pull some enso analogs and compare similar looks. Pretty sure 02-03 had similar ridging along the west coast and AK. It's probably the ideal pattern to be at or BN temps in the eastern US. If we enter Dec with a solid +pna/-epo I'll go into full weenie mode. Only 6 weeks to go... heh

[frd]

27 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

All seasonal models are advertising a coupled +pna/-epo now during the majority of met winter. The euro weeklies get it going in November. We don't need sick blocking for that to work out. Just avoid a raging +ao/nao and good things will happen.

I need to pull some enso analogs and compare similar looks. Pretty sure 02-03 had similar ridging along the west coast and AK. It's probably the ideal pattern to be at or BN temps in the eastern US. If we enter Dec with a solid +pna/-epo I'll go into full weenie mode. Only 6 weeks to go... heh

Wonder how long the warm blob lasts?  I saw some posts here about that.  I think Ian did an article on that very topic if I am not mistaken.  

I am thinking even if it does fad somewhat the El Nino should help out, but regardless,  you would think winter starts early this year. 

Not saying December 2009 MECS but maybe something like Dec 2002.  I think HM mentioned he felt things were not lining up to produce historic blocking this December. He said for blocking it needs to come from tropical forcing.         

[EastCoast NPZ]

29 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

All seasonal models are advertising a coupled +pna/-epo now during the majority of met winter. The euro weeklies get it going in November. We don't need sick blocking for that to work out. Just avoid a raging +ao/nao and good things will happen.

I need to pull some enso analogs and compare similar looks. Pretty sure 02-03 had similar ridging along the west coast and AK. It's probably the ideal pattern to be at or BN temps in the eastern US. If we enter Dec with a solid +pna/-epo I'll go into full weenie mode. Only 6 weeks to go... heh

Good, let's do a White Thanksgiving and Christmas!

[Bob Chill]

41 minutes ago, frd said:

Wonder how long the warm blob lasts?  I saw some posts here about that.  I think Ian did an article on that very topic if I am not mistaken.  

I am thinking even if it does fad somewhat the El Nino should help out, but regardless,  you would think winter starts early this year. 

Not saying December 2009 MECS but maybe something like Dec 2002.  I think HM mentioned he felt things were not lining up to produce historic blocking this December. He said for blocking it needs to come from tropical forcing.         

I personally don't buy into 50 degree water in the gulf of AK providing meaningful forcing in the mid/upper levels. I just think the existence of "the blob" is a response to predominant weather patterns in the area. If a big GoA vortex wants to set up it's going to do it regardless of AN temps in the region. The equatorial region is different. Warm and cold water there definitely makes a big difference in hemispheric patterns. 

Same with the north atlantic near Greenland. Water has been BN there for multiple years in a row but the NAO has been raging positive to it makes sense. 

Do I think there can be a feedback of sorts in both regions? Yes, I think it's possible for sure. I just don think the water temps in the north atlantic or pacific drive the surface, mid and upper levels over long periods of time. I think it works the other way around. 

There are differing opinions on this so I'm just stating the way I look at it. If someone can show me viable research that connects SSTAs in the north atlantic and Pacific driving the bus with surface and upper level patterns I'll change my mind. 

[poolz1]

I personally don't buy into 50 degree water in the gulf of AK providing meaningful forcing in the mid/upper levels. I just think the existence of "the blob" is a response to predominant weather patterns in the area. If a big GoA vortex wants to set up it's going to do it regardless of AN temps in the region. The equatorial region is different. Warm and cold water there definitely makes a big difference in hemispheric patterns. 
Same with the north atlantic near Greenland. Water has been BN there for multiple years in a row but the NAO has been raging positive to it makes sense. 
Do I think there can be a feedback of sorts in both regions? Yes, I think it's possible for sure. I just don think the water temps in the north atlantic or pacific drive the surface, mid and upper levels over long periods of time. I think it works the other way around. 
There are differing opinions on this so I'm just stating the way I look at it. If someone can show me viable research that connects SSTAs in the north atlantic and Pacific driving the bus with surface and upper level patterns I'll change my mind. 

I think if we saw a cross section profile of the Pac in that region it would help with the chicken/egg debate. If it’s strictly surface warmth...the predominant surface pressures probably are to blame. If the warmth has depth to it....maybe it is driving the pattern. Am I wrong in that assumption?


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[Heisy]

21 hours ago, Tenman Johnson said:

What are 850’’s?

Mid to late  October squalls up there can dump high amounts.

850mb temperature

[yoda]

5 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

850mb temperature

He meant the temps themselves 

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

He meant the temps themselves 

He's missing a "the" lmao

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

I personally don't buy into 50 degree water in the gulf of AK providing meaningful forcing in the mid/upper levels. I just think the existence of "the blob" is a response to predominant weather patterns in the area. If a big GoA vortex wants to set up it's going to do it regardless of AN temps in the region. The equatorial region is different. Warm and cold water there definitely makes a big difference in hemispheric patterns.  

Same with the north atlantic near Greenland. Water has been BN there for multiple years in a row but the NAO has been raging positive to it makes sense.  

Do I think there can be a feedback of sorts in both regions? Yes, I think it's possible for sure. I just don think the water temps in the north atlantic or pacific drive the surface, mid and upper levels over long periods of time. I think it works the other way around.  

There are differing opinions on this so I'm just stating the way I look at it. If someone can show me viable research that connects SSTAs in the north atlantic and Pacific driving the bus with surface and upper level patterns I'll change my mind. 

Here's a start. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2015GL063306%4010.1002/(ISSN)1944-8007.CALDROUGHT1

On the blob..."For the southern portion of the high SLP anomaly, weaker than normal winds from the west induced anomalously weak Ekman transports of colder water from the north. An additional contribution was made by a near‐normal eastward component of the current acting on a preexisting zonal gradient in the SST anomaly distribution."

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

There's other ongoing research behind paywalls unfortunately.

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-017-3942-0

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JAS-D-17-0298.1

[poolz1]

7 hours ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Here's a start. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2015GL063306%4010.1002/(ISSN)1944-8007.CALDROUGHT1

On the blob..."For the southern portion of the high SLP anomaly, weaker than normal winds from the west induced anomalously weak Ekman transports of colder water from the north. An additional contribution was made by a near‐normal eastward component of the current acting on a preexisting zonal gradient in the SST anomaly distribution."

That was a good read...thanks for posting.  Unfortunately, I dont think there was a firm conclusion....unless I am missing something.  Which is very possible as I am only on my first cup of coffee!

It does sound like for the most part the +anoms were caused by SLP... "This development can be attributed to strongly positive anomalies in SLP, which served to suppress the loss of heat from the ocean to the atmosphere, and leads to a lack of the usual cold advection in the upper ocean."

But then the very next line..."The extra mixed layer heat persisted through the summer of 2014 and may have represented a significant contribution to the unusually warm summer (in some locations record high temperatures) observed in the continental Pacific Northwest."

On a side note...it looks like the SOI is back in negative territory after a pretty good stretch of positives. ENSO has cooled a bit in all areas...especially 1+2. 

 

 

[showmethesnow]

11 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

On a side note...it looks like the SOI is back in negative territory after a pretty good stretch of positives. ENSO has cooled a bit in all areas...especially 1+2. 

 

Was just looking at that when you posted. Pretty significant drop in the last week or so. Still a fairly strong Modoki signature though it just falls under nino criteria. I've wondered over the last few years if whether the Modoki configuration (warmer sst's in 3.4 vs colder 1+2) was actually beneficial to our East Coast winter weather chances despite the ENSO state we may be in. Might have to go back at some point to see how our neutrals and Ninas preformed when the SSTs were aligned in this manner.

[frd]

This is a good sign, a dropping NAO to negative , hard to believe it,  but seems likely to happen.   

I think in the end changes in the NAO ( + to -  and - to + ) might be better than having and hoping for very negative values.   

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.shtml

I expect this might be a kick off to a storm next weekend and the expectation of a lot of coastal storms this winter.  

[frd]

2 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

Was just looking at that when you posted. Pretty significant drop in the last week or so. Still a fairly strong Modoki signature though it just falls under nino criteria. I've wondered over the last few years if whether the Modoki configuration (warmer sst's in 3.4 vs colder 1+2) was actually beneficial to our East Coast winter weather chances despite the ENSO state we may be in. Might have to go back at some point to see how our neutrals and Ninas preformed when the SSTs were aligned in this manner.

Yeah , the Eastern regions really will fluctuate and it is nice to see it coming down there, some past El Nino seasons you would see the shift happening now away from central based to more Eastern based. This year that is not happening, still expect central based Modaki type El Nino .  Question remains the large sub surface warmth there , when will it surface and where,  and does it last causing a two year event. 

This brings up the potential of a stormy cold March this year as we continue at that time to move further into the solar min and also factors that favor blocking might grow even stronger later in the winter season . Maybe this year brings an outcome in March similiar to 1958. Can see a significant snowstorm in March this year, just speculation,  but on the table .     

[showmethesnow]

3 minutes ago, frd said:

This is a good sign, a dropping NAO to negative , hard to believe it,  but seems likely to happen.   

I think in the end changes in the NAO ( + to -  and - to + ) might be better than having and hoping for very negative values.   

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.shtml

I expect this might be a kick off to a storm next weekend and the expectation of a lot of coastal storms this winter.  

A fluctuating NAO is normally indicative of storminess on the east coast. Many of our Kocin events occur when we see the NAO flip from a neg to pos. Where as a strong static -NAO generally favors a cold and suppressed look for our region where storms will run through the south with no amplification.

[frd]

2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

A fluctuating NAO is normally indicative of storminess on the east coast. Many of our Kocin events occur when we see the NAO flip from a neg to pos. Where as a strong static -NAO generally favors a cold and suppressed look for our region where storms will run through the south with no amplification.

Yeah, so true Showme   :-)  

[showmethesnow]

1 minute ago, frd said:

Yeah , the Eastern regions really will fluctuate and it is nice to see it coming down there, some past El Nino seasons you would see the shift happening now away from central based to more Eastern based. This year that is not happening, still expect central based Modaki type El Nino .  Question remains the large sub surface warmth there , when will it surface and where,  and does it last causing a two year event. 

This brings up the potential of a stormy cold March this year as we continue at that time to move further into the solar min and also factors that favor blocking might grow even stronger later in the winter season . Maybe this year brings an outcome in March similiar to 1958. Can see a significant snowstorm in March this year, just speculation,  but on the table .     

From what I have seen so far I am favoring a good back end to winter (Jan/Feb/Mar). Think we see it run deep into March where the northern/favored areas might sneak into April. Plenty of question marks in my mind though on the front end. 

[frd]

1 minute ago, showmethesnow said:

From what I have seen so far I am favoring a good back end to winter (Jan/Feb/Mar). Think we see it run deep into March where the northern/favored areas might sneak into April. Plenty of question marks in my mind though on the front end. 

Most seasonal models show in a general fashion a great Feb and a decent Jan , but Decembers can be fickle in a Nino years, Sure 2002 and 2009 delivered but we will need blocking.

If we get a huge - EPO and cooperative Pac then we will see maybe colder & snowier December. I guess in about 4 weeks we should have a handle on December. 

Not sure the role and the progression of the MJO,  but some have shown similarities to past Octobers,  where the cycle is phase 1 , 2 and 3 and make the argument  that by early December we should once again be in favorable colder/stormier phases for the East Coast. 

Maybe look for  a pattern reload in early December after a moderation later in November, not sure, more time needed to see the progression of things in the Northern Hemisphere. 

Exciting times may be a coming ..... 

  

[showmethesnow]

10 minutes ago, frd said:

Most seasonal models show in a general fashion a great Feb and a decent Jan , but Decembers can be fickle in a Nino years, Sure 2002 and 2009 delivered but we will need blocking.

If we get a huge - EPO and cooperative Pac then we will see maybe colder & snowier December. I guess in about 4 weeks we should have a handle on December. 

Not sure the role and the progression of the MJO,  but some have shown similarities to past Octobers,  where the cycle is phase 1 , 2 and 3 and make the argument  that by early December we should once again be in favorable colder/stormier phases for the East Coast. 

Maybe look for  a pattern reload in early December after a moderation later in November, not sure, more time needed to see the progression of things in the Northern Hemisphere. 

Exciting times may be a coming ..... 

  

As I said before there is a lot of question marks in my mind at this time but I think if I had to make a call for the first half of winter I would probably go for a mostly uneventful one winter weather wise. Leaning towards a highly variable November and early/mid December temps wise with temps above norm over that period. Think the torches will out number the cold outbreaks and the cold out breaks will be more in and out in nature. Doesn't mean we can't score something though, especially if we can get a little help from the NAO. Think by mid/late December is when we see a pattern flip and things start to become exciting.

[Eskimo Joe]

I'd like to see a winter with wetter snows and a legit blizzard.  Something pre-Christmas like the 23rd into the 24th would be great.

[psuhoffman]

7 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

Was just looking at that when you posted. Pretty significant drop in the last week or so. Still a fairly strong Modoki signature though it just falls under nino criteria. I've wondered over the last few years if whether the Modoki configuration (warmer sst's in 3.4 vs colder 1+2) was actually beneficial to our East Coast winter weather chances despite the ENSO state we may be in. Might have to go back at some point to see how our neutrals and Ninas preformed when the SSTs were aligned in this manner.

There does seem to be a correlation to east based nina's (warmer water in the central Pacific) being skewed colder. Last year was an example. But we still struggle to get good snowfall here because of the limited southern stream. But it does seem that having the best tropical forcing located in the central Pacific is conducive to the mjo being in favorable phases for eastern Conus troughs. 

[RitualOfTheTrout]

21 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

There does seem to be a correlation to east based nina's (warmer water in the central Pacific) being skewed colder. Last year was an example. But we still struggle to get good snowfall here because of the limited southern stream. But it does seem that having the best tropical forcing located in the central Pacific is conducive to the mjo being in favorable phases for eastern Conus troughs. 

This has been my thinking, warmer water situated west based irregardless of enso phase my favor a trough but with Nina / Nuetral would feature more northern stream (clippers & Miller bs) but Nino better shot at Miller As due to more active southern stream.