mattie g Posted October 18, 2018 Share Posted October 18, 2018 9 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: Don’t h8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted October 18, 2018 Share Posted October 18, 2018 14 hours ago, poolz1 said: Reading between the lines a bit....Looks like a quick start to winter, a pull back in Jan (but doable) and then a classic el nino Feb/Mar I'm pretty sure that a classic March el nino is early spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 18, 2018 Share Posted October 18, 2018 8 hours ago, psuhoffman said: I am not sure a "slightly below average" January would really feel like a pullback or even be void of snow. We are so used to torches in January a "normal" one might feel arctic. Totally agreed. A January that comes in at or just below normal would absolutely yield chances assuming there’s moisture around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted October 18, 2018 Share Posted October 18, 2018 Eric always seems to have keen insights on El Ninos .......wonder the eventual outcome , weak, or moderate ? Or maybe inbetween and of course it could be classified as weak but there is the possibility that the sensibe weather outcomes might minic a moderate El Niino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted October 18, 2018 Share Posted October 18, 2018 Maybe this leads to a warmer November , but I think if this happens then it lessens the use of 2009 as a analog. Speculation only.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted October 18, 2018 Share Posted October 18, 2018 39 minutes ago, frd said: Maybe this leads to a warmer November , but I think if this happens then it lessens the use of 2009 as a analog. Speculation only.... I think a warm November is exactly what we need for a memorable winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted October 18, 2018 Share Posted October 18, 2018 7 hours ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: I think a warm November is exactly what we need for a memorable winter. And then we just pray that the flip............... doesn't flop! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted October 18, 2018 Share Posted October 18, 2018 13 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Winter cancel. https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/winter-outlook-favors-warmer-temperatures-for-much-of-us That's better than most years I think with an El Nino ........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted October 18, 2018 Share Posted October 18, 2018 Per HM , this is not a 2009 December coming up, OK To be fair to Anthony you really need to read all his tweets around this topic . He makes good points, as always. He went on to say about there are some positives, but also mentioned at this time back in 2009 he was already speculating on a big storm in December, as you can read below. I did not look, but wondering what the AO and NAO were like durig the summer of 2009. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted October 18, 2018 Share Posted October 18, 2018 More from HM, this time about 1994 , here I can see the logic about that year. So both of those years are extremes as he alludes to here. So maybe we get a combo from various years. I mean you can use a analog in a winter forecast, but we should all know that the year(s) used are similiar to a degree but never an exact match in seasonal forecasting. For example this year I myself can see March being very harsh , when I think March 2003 was not. I like 57 - 58 as a possible late season outcome . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted October 18, 2018 Share Posted October 18, 2018 4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Yeah, that's actually not an awful look. Looks like a semi-active STJ to me given the precip in the south. And warmth in Alaska is something I want to see provided the PNA/EPO regions look good. Last thing I want is a black hole up there flooding the US with PAC warmth. We can get by with a crappy Atlantic. It's game over if the PAC is trash. IMO. I think the Pac drives the pattern this winter , intervals of -EPO and + PNA and a few episodes later of -AO and even some -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 18, 2018 Share Posted October 18, 2018 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said: Winter cancel. https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/winter-outlook-favors-warmer-temperatures-for-much-of-us That looks pretty standard given the expectations of an El Nino winter. Considering the source, that's probably about as good as it gets for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 18, 2018 Share Posted October 18, 2018 Latest ENSO update for those who have not seen it. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf Chances of El Nino for winter months up to 75% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 18, 2018 Share Posted October 18, 2018 On 10/17/2018 at 11:54 AM, Bob Chill said: that was my first thought too. The December blizzard is going to be awesome. Can we get a 9-year anniversary 12/19 snowstorm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 18, 2018 Share Posted October 18, 2018 4 minutes ago, mappy said: Can we get a 9-year anniversary 12/19 snowstorm? Let's do 12/24 this year. Although that weekend will be burned in my memory forever. Drove from Rockville to Columbia during the height of the storm carrying precious cargo (groom and $1k worth of liquor). Was supposed to be 250 people at the wedding and only about 50 could make it. It was pretty awesome regardless. I know your big day was similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted October 18, 2018 Share Posted October 18, 2018 16 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Let's do 12/24 this year. Although that weekend will be burned in my memory forever. Drove from Rockville to Columbia during the height of the storm carrying precious cargo (groom and $1k worth of liquor). Was supposed to be 250 people at the wedding and only about 50 could make it. It was pretty awesome regardless. I know your big day was similar. $1K of liquor and only 50 people to drink it? Yeah, I bet it was awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted October 18, 2018 Share Posted October 18, 2018 El Nino may not have an open stage, the cold anomaly since the summer season in central Canada is quite persistent and Hudson Bay is considerably colder than usual with prospects of early freeze-up, this normally correlates with below normal temperatures in the Great Lakes and inland northeast, so that I'm speculating the El Nino may not always be dominant in the west-central regions but instead there may be a persistent frontal boundary across the central Rockies oriented NW-SE, and confluent flow heading for Atlantic Canada. Given all of that set-up, the storm track may tend to run across the Tennessee Valley into southern Virginia fairly frequently. So I think it could be a better than average snowfall winter with slightly below normal temperatures in the Mid-Atlantic. I don't foresee long intervals of torch, nor do I see cold shots going so far south that you end up in cold, dry either (the El Nino should at least guarantee a moist south and southeast US). With any luck, one or two decent snowfalls this winter. When the contest comes around, I am going to go something like 50% above normal, nothing spectacular like 2010, but solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 18, 2018 Share Posted October 18, 2018 Latest EPS Weeklies are umm, well, I hope we aren't wasting this now if it were to verify, lol. The E/NPAC is stout throughout with a -EPO, and a predominate +PNA. Also features a blocky look up top pretty much the whole run. Given the look for the first week of November, hard to imagine there wouldn't be a pretty widespread early season elevation type winter storm in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 18, 2018 Share Posted October 18, 2018 CFS is FINALLY looking more like a Nino. Dropped the aleutian ridge idea. I was ignoring the CFS completely when it picked up on that idea. Jan isn't perfect but totally acceptable. Feb looks pretty damn good now though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 18, 2018 Share Posted October 18, 2018 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: Latest EPS Weeklies are umm, well, I hope we aren't wasting this now if it were to verify, lol. The E/NPAC is stout throughout with a -EPO, and a predominate +PNA. Also features a blocky look up top pretty much the whole run. Given the look for the first week of November, hard to imagine there wouldn't be a pretty widespread early season elevation type winter storm in the east. With decent enso forcing it's very possible that Nov starts showing winter's hand. I'm slowly coming around to the idea that this winter may be pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 18, 2018 Share Posted October 18, 2018 Snapshot of h5 from today's edition of EPS weeklies for early November: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 Now that's an EPO ridge. This would be an ok way to start December lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said: I’m glad Ian is still thinking of us. So tell me more about this "blob"...I've heard a couple of you reference it, but I'm not clear on what it does, exactly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 42 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: So tell me more about this "blob"...I've heard a couple of you reference it, but I'm not clear on what it does, exactly! Area of above normal temps in the gulf of AK and off the west coast of CA. It's a chicken or egg discussion as to what it means. 13-14 had it and there was persistent ridging there and a -epo. The question is, does the above normal water cause the ridge or vice versa. It's not like it's warm water. Even though the maps show orange and red the water temps are still low 50s or lower. Not exactly warm water like along the equator. I think it's a byproduct of the peristant ridging and doesn't cause anything more than a minor feedback. If a trough wants to set up over that area of above normal water it isn't going to stop much. It is a sign though and a good one. We want a -epo and +pna all winter. I noticed the really strong ridging over AK in sept and was wondering if that will be a theme this winter. Would be great if it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 3 hours ago, Bob Chill said: Area of above normal temps in the gulf of AK and off the west coast of CA. It's a chicken or egg discussion as to what it means. 13-14 had it and there was persistent ridging there and a -epo. The question is, does the above normal water cause the ridge or vice versa. It's not like it's warm water. Even though the maps show orange and red the water temps are still low 50s or lower. Not exactly warm water like along the equator. I think it's a byproduct of the peristant ridging and doesn't cause anything more than a minor feedback. If a trough wants to set up over that area of above normal water it isn't going to stop much. It is a sign though and a good one. We want a -epo and +pna all winter. I noticed the really strong ridging over AK in sept and was wondering if that will be a theme this winter. Would be great if it does. Some twitter commentary on the blob...(some throw out how it came and disappeared in Fall 2016... Now, if it does disappear...what else will we need to happen?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 6 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said: Now that's an EPO ridge. This would be an ok way to start December lol. And then you have the Control run. Last 2 weeks is downright ugly. So we go with SOP and we toss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 15 hours ago, mappy said: Can we get a 9-year anniversary 12/19 snowstorm? You have the best wedding picture of ALL time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 16 hours ago, Bob Chill said: Let's do 12/24 this year. Although that weekend will be burned in my memory forever. Drove from Rockville to Columbia during the height of the storm carrying precious cargo (groom and $1k worth of liquor). Was supposed to be 250 people at the wedding and only about 50 could make it. It was pretty awesome regardless. I know your big day was similar. I'm down with a big christmas eve storm. And yes, though only a 100 people guest list, with about 40 or so making it. The open bar was hopping! 20 minutes ago, sauss06 said: You have the best wedding picture of ALL time! Thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 On the latest edition of the EPS weeklies, looking at the 850 mb temp anomalies out to Dec 3, there are about 8 days of (slightly) above, out of 46. The rest are average to below average, with most days being below. Just fwiw lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 Advisory level precip in the mountains perhaps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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