frd Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 Weeklies Hmm no surprises , seems cold rest of the month into Nov and then a warm up . After that who knows ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 This I like ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 Posted by Ginx in their SNE winter thread: 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: Lalalalalalal lock it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 5 hours ago, frd said: Weeklies Hmm no surprises , seems cold rest of the month into Nov and then a warm up . After that who knows ..... I know that is temp anomalies, but safe to say looks like the weeklies want to show a +AO by then just based on where those warm anomalies are. Not 100% sure if you can assume heights based on temp anomalies though in that region....Regardless, Idk if Ji posts on here or not anymore, but give me the Dec 5th snowstorm or give me death. Nothing like winter starting out fast. If the weeklies are correct though let’s hope the duration isn’t too bad. Of course I am being sarcastic, I know winter isn’t over by Dec 5th if it hasn’t snowed. Okay, I’ll give it till the 10th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 5 hours ago, Wentzadelphia said: I know that is temp anomalies, but safe to say looks like the weeklies want to show a +AO by then just based on where those warm anomalies are. Not 100% sure if you can assume heights based on temp anomalies though in that region....Regardless, Idk if Ji posts on here or not anymore, but give me the Dec 5th snowstorm or give me death. Nothing like winter starting out fast. If the weeklies are correct though let’s hope the duration isn’t too bad. Of course I am being sarcastic, I know winter isn’t over by Dec 5th if it hasn’t snowed. Okay, I’ll give it till the 10th. Really hard to go by just a snapshot at 1 layer of the atmosphere and just on our side of the globe to boot but I think the warm anomalies around the pole probably argue against a +AO. A strong PV sitting in the polar regions (+AO) would typically have cold anomalies showing. My guess is what we are seeing is the bulk of the PV has rotated to the other side of the globe at this point. And the fact we are see the warm anomalies extending from the polar regions down into the northern US only reinforces that thought in my mind. Would really like to see more maps to get a better understanding of what is going on. Guess it is about time I consider re-upping my WxBell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 54 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Really hard to go by just a snapshot at 1 layer of the atmosphere and just on our side of the globe to boot but I think the warm anomalies around the pole probably argue against a +AO. A strong PV sitting in the polar regions (+AO) would typically have cold anomalies showing. My guess is what we are seeing is the PV has rotated to the other side of the globe at this point. And the fact we are see the warm anomalies extending from the polar regions down into the northern US only reinforces that thought in my mind. Would really like to see more maps to get a better understanding of what is going on. Guess it is about time I consider re-upping my WxBell. Not surprising, but this weeks edition looks quite different than last weeks as we progress into Nov. It does look progressively less favorable up top in the second half of November. As you know, the weeklies can be a "fun" tool to look at 45 days out, but in reality it's based off of one model cycle and best used to get an idea of where things are headed maybe a week beyond day 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 59 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Not surprising, but this weeks edition looks quite different than last weeks as we progress into Nov. It does look progressively less favorable up top in the second half of November. As you know, the weeklies can be a "fun" tool to look at 45 days out, but in reality it's based off of one model cycle and best used to get an idea of where things are headed maybe a week beyond day 15. I don't get too locked in on what they show in the longer ranges unless we are in a fairly stable regime and right now we are undergoing changes so I am also not surprised that we are seeing this on the models. One of my thoughts/concerns over the last few weeks was where the warmest anomalies were setting up in the polar regions leading into winter. Though they argued for a weakened and displaced PV I thought they also argued for seeing the PV displaced more so on the other side of the globe then our side at least for the beginning and/or first half of winter. And I think this is exactly what the weeklies are now beginning to show in the longer ranges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 Idk....I thought the weeklies looked fine thru the end of the run. First week in Nov looks classic....the last week in this cycle shows the same pattern just washed out...as an ens would be that far out. We also need to start a digital snow thread....per the 00z gfs. I do like seeing some coastal storms starting to show up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 46 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Idk....I thought the weeklies looked fine thru the end of the run. First week in Nov looks classic....the last week in this cycle shows the same pattern just washed out...as an ens would be that far out. We also need to start a digital snow thread....per the 00z gfs. I do like seeing some coastal storms starting to show up. Agree, and its not bad even towards the end, but in the context of the concerns of a +AO look, it does lean that way the latter part of November. IIRC last week's edition had the higher h5 height and MSLP anomalies in the AO domain, and actually increased the blocky look over GL towards the end of the run. But again, its a tool with limited skill 30+ days out, esp. when considering only a single run. If 2 or 3 consecutive runs tend to show the same pattern evolution in the LR, then I pay more attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 28 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Agree, and its not bad even towards the end, but in the context of the concerns of a +AO look, it does lean that way the latter part of November. IIRC last week's edition had the higher h5 height and MSLP anomalies in the AO domain, and actually increased the blocky look over GL towards the end of the run. But again, its a tool with limited skill 30+ days out, esp. when considering only a single run. If 2 or 3 consecutive runs tend to show the same pattern evolution in the LR, then I pay more attention. Yep...splitting hairs on a 46 day lead is probably pointless as it will change by Thursday. Check out the control run....wants to put a lot of snow cover down across the CONUS. Let's pick apart the control run now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: Agree, and its not bad even towards the end, but in the context of the concerns of a +AO look, it does lean that way the latter part of November. IIRC last week's edition had the higher h5 height and MSLP anomalies in the AO domain, and actually increased the blocky look over GL towards the end of the run. But again, its a tool with limited skill 30+ days out, esp. when considering only a single run. If 2 or 3 consecutive runs tend to show the same pattern evolution in the LR, then I pay more attention. Is it actually showing a weak +AO at the end? Kind of curious on the look. Do you have something to throw up? if not I guess I will have to dig into my wallet for weatherbell though it is a little earlier in the season then normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 2 hours ago, showmethesnow said: Is it actually showing a weak +AO at the end? Kind of curious on the look. Do you have something to throw up? if not I guess I will have to dig into my wallet for weatherbell though it is a little earlier in the season then normal. It's towards the end of the run, so its washed out some, but I would say it is more neutral than anything. Lots of blue in the AO domain looking at MSLP anomalies, and the h5 heights are lower, beginning at about day 30. Prior to that, it looks at least like a slightly -AO. Plenty of orange at h5, and + MSLP anomalies. Is posting Euro maps still frowned upon? I can post a couple but I don't want to get on anyone's bad side this early in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 @showmethesnow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 47 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: It is towards the end of the run, so its washed out some, but I would say it is more neutral than anything. Lots of blue in the AO domain looking at MSLP anomalies, and the h5 heights are lower, beginning at about day 30. Prior to that, it looks at least like a slightly -AO. Plenty of orange at h5, and + MSLP anomalies. Is posting Euro maps still frowned upon? I can post a couple but I don't want to get on anyone's bad side this early in the season. Kind of surprising to see negative mslp anoms when I see warm 850's in that region. Maybe some extreme members in the ensembles throwing a curve? Or possible a couple of camps fighting it out? No worries about posting it. Not that I have the time but I am starting to get antsy for winter so I think I will just go ahead and grab Wxbell this evening. eta: Lol. See you posted a map seconds before my post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 1 minute ago, showmethesnow said: Kind of surprising to see negative mslp anoms when I see warm 850's in that region. Maybe some extreme members in the ensembles throwing a curve? Or possible a couple of camps fighting it out? No worries about posting it. Not that I have the time but I am starting to get antsy for winter so I think I will just go ahead and grab Wxbell this evening. You should go for it. And too late, I posted some panels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: @showmethesnow Never do well eyeballing for AO but that looks to me to be a neutral at worst. I think the washing out in the longer ranges is dampening what would probably be a negative AO. Wxbell doesn't have the numerical AO values by any chance? I see my guess that the pv is skewed to the other side of the globe is accurate. That semi split of the pv is located where the greatest warm anomalies have been/will be centered and the reason why I believe we see the pv featured or skewed on this run more to the other side of the globe. eta: By the way, Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Never do well eyeballing for AO but that looks to me to be a neutral at worst. I think the washing out in the longer ranges is dampening what would probably be a negative AO. Wxbell doesn't have the numerical AO values by any chance? I see my guess that the pv is skewed to the other side of the globe is accurate. That semi split of the pv is located where the greatest warm anomalies have been/will be centered and the reason why I believe we see the pv featured or skewed more to the other side of the globe which has been my biggest fear for the front end of winter. eta: By the way, Thanks. I agree on the washing out. Makes it a bit ambiguous. IMO it probably goes from a weak -AO to neutral, but it is hard to say just looking at h5 and with lower res. Its a bit more clear looking at the MSLP anomalies. I should have posted those lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 Noticed there is a poll out on consolidating winter forecasting - https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdfs/pns18-29hazsimp_winter.pdf Not sure where the best place was to put it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 I’m not sure issuing a “winter storm warning for blizzard conditions” is an effective communication strategy.Strongly agree. Consolidating all the hazards under the WSW header will only confuse the public and possibly make the hazards sound less threatening. Last year when we had a WSW for the big snow in January over here, most people were pretty blase about it; but once it was upgraded to a Blizzard Warning, people started paying attention to it .Sent from my SM-G892A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted October 17, 2018 Share Posted October 17, 2018 Reading between the lines a bit....Looks like a quick start to winter, a pull back in Jan (but doable) and then a classic el nino Feb/Mar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted October 17, 2018 Share Posted October 17, 2018 19 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: I’m not sure issuing a “winter storm warning for blizzard conditions” is an effective communication strategy. My exact feedback! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted October 17, 2018 Share Posted October 17, 2018 19 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: I’m not sure issuing a “winter storm warning for blizzard conditions” is an effective communication strategy. Ditto. I think that is a terrible idea. A WSW for 6-10 inches of snow is a completely different animal than 6-10 inches falling in 30-40 mph winds drifting 2-4 foot (or more) high. Plus, what happens when you have snow on the ground and a windstorm blows thru? Issue a WSW for zero snow??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 17, 2018 Share Posted October 17, 2018 1 hour ago, wxdude64 said: Ditto. I think that is a terrible idea. A WSW for 6-10 inches of snow is a completely different animal than 6-10 inches falling in 30-40 mph winds drifting 2-4 foot (or more) high. Plus, what happens when you have snow on the ground and a windstorm blows thru? Issue a WSW for zero snow??? Good thing Sterling doesn’t have to worry about either of the last two scenarios happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted October 17, 2018 Share Posted October 17, 2018 4 hours ago, poolz1 said: Reading between the lines a bit....Looks like a quick start to winter, a pull back in Jan (but doable) and then a classic el nino Feb/Mar Oh. So you mean just like 09-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 17, 2018 Share Posted October 17, 2018 7 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: Oh. So you mean just like 09-10. that was my first thought too. The December blizzard is going to be awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted October 17, 2018 Share Posted October 17, 2018 9 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: Oh. So you mean just like 09-10. Bring it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted October 17, 2018 Share Posted October 17, 2018 10 minutes ago, wxdude64 said: Bring it. That winter is the one people will be bringing up for the next 50 years hoping that the current winter they are in will match it. Wonder how many people realized at the time they were probably looking at a once in a lifetime event with KU's, total snowfall for this region and general over all awesomeness that the winter was? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 17, 2018 Share Posted October 17, 2018 11 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: That winter is the one people will be bringing up for the next 50 years hoping that the current winter they are in will match it. Wonder how many people realized at the time they were probably looking at a once in a lifetime event with KU's, total snowfall for this region and general over all awesomeness that the winter was? there's a 50/50 chance this winter beats 09-10. It either does or doesn't. 50/50 by my calculations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted October 17, 2018 Share Posted October 17, 2018 54 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: there's a 50/50 chance this winter beats 09-10. It either does or doesn't. 50/50 by my calculations. I like your methodology Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted October 17, 2018 Share Posted October 17, 2018 5 hours ago, poolz1 said: Reading between the lines a bit....Looks like a quick start to winter, a pull back in Jan (but doable) and then a classic el nino Feb/Mar I am not sure a "slightly below average" January would really feel like a pullback or even be void of snow. We are so used to torches in January a "normal" one might feel arctic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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