Winter 2018-19 Is Coming

[psuhoffman]

5 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Here's what I'm talking about from another year... a very good one. Lol. We want the western side of the npac to move towards this. 02-03 success was driven by a persistant +pna more than the ao/nao. Some similarity in the eastern npac right now. Heh. 

Do you have the link to finding those past sst maps?  I can't find it for some reason. Used to have it saved. Thanks 

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

7 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Here's what I'm talking about from another year... a very good one. Lol. We want the western side of the npac to move towards this. 02-03 success was driven by a persistant +pna more than the ao/nao. Some similarity in the eastern npac right now. Heh. 

Bastardi is all over that analog!  October CONUS temps are close to a mirror image with the torch start transition to negative late.

[Bob Chill]

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Do you have the link to finding those past sst maps?  I can't find it for some reason. Used to have it saved. Thanks 

Yep, this is my favorite site but only goes back to 96

https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/

[frd]

20 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Bastardi is all over that analog!  October CONUS temps are close to a mirror image with the torch start transition to negative late.

North Atlantic SST profile not the same, you agree ?  Other parts of the Atlantic are tohugh and so is the Pac overall. 

I also think right now the SSTs West of Australia that were super cold might have warmed a tad 

[psuhoffman]

36 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Yep, this is my favorite site but only goes back to 96

https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/

Thanks that's the one. 

[yoda]

Didn't realize that there are already WWA's up for the western OK panhandle and the Texas panhandle... up to 0.05" ice possible and even 1-2" of snow in the OK panhandle is possible tomorrow... wow

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1102 PM CDT Sat Oct 13 2018

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>019-317-141200-
/O.CON.KAMA.WW.Y.0004.181014T1500Z-181015T1600Z/
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Palo Duro Canyon-
Including the cities of Boise City, Keyes, Guymon, Beaver,
Forgan, Dalhart, Stratford, Spearman, Gruver, Perryton, Booker,
Higgins, Follett, Hartley, Channing, Dumas, Borger, Miami,
Canadian, Vega, Amarillo, Panhandle, White Deer, Pampa, Shamrock,
Wheeler, Hereford, Canyon, Claude, Clarendon,
and Palo Duro Canyon
1102 PM CDT Sat Oct 13 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO
11 AM CDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...Periods of light freezing drizzle are expected, resulting
  in light ice accumulations. Total ice accumulations of up to
  five hundreths of an inch are expected. In addition, an inch or
  two of snowfall accumulation may occur in the far western
  Oklahoma Panhandle.

* WHERE...All of the Oklahoma Panhandle and all of the Texas
  Panhandle except Collingsworth county.

* WHEN...From 10 AM Sunday until 11 AM Monday.

[raindancewx]

Some of our mountains will get two feet of snow the next five days. Where I am, against the 30-year means, we haven't had a cold month since August 2017 - so something has definitely snapped. This month should end up as very cold for Oct. My analogs had good snows for most of the state in Oct. So far so good.

[WxUSAF]

9 hours ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Bastardi is all over that analog!  October CONUS temps are close to a mirror image with the torch start transition to negative late.

Worst news I’ve heard yet.

[WxUSAF]

#pantstent

 

[frd]

I like this trend and set up a lot ! 

In many years past Siberia would get the snow and Canadian snow cover would suffer. 

Also, I like that fact that since Canada is vital as a cryosphere cold seeding ground seeing this so early and continuing, is a possible sign that we could get earlier than normal cold deliveries and set up earlier potential of winter threats down the line. 

 

 

[MillvilleWx]

11 hours ago, yoda said:

Didn't realize that there are already WWA's up for the western OK panhandle and the Texas panhandle... up to 0.05" ice possible and even 1-2" of snow in the OK panhandle is possible tomorrow... wow

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1102 PM CDT Sat Oct 13 2018

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>019-317-141200-
/O.CON.KAMA.WW.Y.0004.181014T1500Z-181015T1600Z/
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Palo Duro Canyon-
Including the cities of Boise City, Keyes, Guymon, Beaver,
Forgan, Dalhart, Stratford, Spearman, Gruver, Perryton, Booker,
Higgins, Follett, Hartley, Channing, Dumas, Borger, Miami,
Canadian, Vega, Amarillo, Panhandle, White Deer, Pampa, Shamrock,
Wheeler, Hereford, Canyon, Claude, Clarendon,
and Palo Duro Canyon
1102 PM CDT Sat Oct 13 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO
11 AM CDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...Periods of light freezing drizzle are expected, resulting
  in light ice accumulations. Total ice accumulations of up to
  five hundreths of an inch are expected. In addition, an inch or
  two of snowfall accumulation may occur in the far western
  Oklahoma Panhandle.

* WHERE...All of the Oklahoma Panhandle and all of the Texas
  Panhandle except Collingsworth county.

* WHEN...From 10 AM Sunday until 11 AM Monday.

Here in Midland, our high is looking to crack 80 before the front. Low tomorrow morning around 37/38 with a high around 44. Huge changes incoming for the Panhandle. My friend at the Amarillo office said they are expecting snow in their NW CWA. Wind gusts near 60 already reported post front up in their neck of the woods. 

[nj2va]

I think it may be time to re-up my weather model subscription.  

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, nj2va said:

I think it may be time to re-up my weather model subscription.  

I normally don't until Dec 1, but I re-upped my WB this past Friday. I justified it because I distilled down my DirecTV service and I am now saving 20 bucks a month

[NorthArlington101]

13 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

 

Only 11 days away 

P001 is a bonefied western burbs snowstorm 

P005 is also has a impressive look ..a little to far northeast but 264 hours to fine tune for a forum hit.

Joking aside I'm thinking we get a couple coastals to track the next few weeks.



Money shot. I'll take the under. 

[poolz1]

Winter preview?

[poolz1]

lol...

 

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, poolz1 said:

Winter preview?

Practice makes perfect.... or atmospheric memory, or something, lol.

GEFS has been hinting at the same sort of look towards the end of the month.

EPS weeklies had a good look up top for much of November. Be interesting to see what this week's edition looks like, as the very end of the run will be into December.

[frd]

58 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Practice makes perfect.... or atmospheric memory, or something, lol.

GEFS has been hinting at the same sort of look towards the end of the month.

EPS weeklies had a good look up top for much of November. Be interesting to see what this week's edition looks like, as the very end of the run will be into December.

Looks like storm potential  increases at the end of the month .  Also,  the WAR is slowly becoming displaced and less of a factor .

[Heisy]

I don’t know, October 2011had that inland snowstorm at the end of the month and that winter sucked. I always seemed to think (and obviously this has no factual evidence) that a cold October lead to warm winters...Weenie that I am. 

[Cobalt]

25 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

I don’t know, October 2011had that inland snowstorm at the end of the month and that winter sucked. I always seemed to think (and obviously this has no factual evidence) that a cold October lead to warm winters...Weenie that I am. 

I mean, October 2009 was a cold month and had a mid October snowstorm in central Pennsylvania. 

The month ended up being the 3rd coldest for the country as well

But of course, instances such as 1979 and of course 2011 show up, so it may just be the Bermuda Triangle of months for us folks. Many instances of both good and bad winters following, but we just focus on the bad ones 

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, Cobalt said:

I mean, October 2009 was a cold month and had a mid October snowstorm in central Pennsylvania. 

The month ended up being the 3rd coldest for the country as well

But of course, instances such as 1979 and of course 2011 show up, so it may just be the Bermuda Triangle of months for us folks. Many instances of both good and bad winters following, but we just focus on the bad ones 

Yeah that was a warm up for what was to come in December.

I like what I am seeing on the ensemble runs and imo it would be great to see a favorable pattern set up early. It can relax sometime in November and then drop the hammer for mid December. Front loaded winter for a change.

[frd]

1 hour ago, Cobalt said:

I mean, October 2009 was a cold month and had a mid October snowstorm in central Pennsylvania. 

The month ended up being the 3rd coldest for the country as well

But of course, instances such as 1979 and of course 2011 show up, so it may just be the Bermuda Triangle of months for us folks. Many instances of both good and bad winters following, but we just focus on the bad ones 

Not everything points to 2011. From a simple SOI / MEI comparison I believe 1957 -58 shows up for the most  similiar June to early Sept SOI progression . 

I believe that year featured a very severe Mid Atlantic Snowstorm in March 

 

 

[psuhoffman]

46 minutes ago, frd said:

Not everything points to 2011. From a simple SOI / MEI comparison I believe 

There was a snow event in December then a long dead period until February. But several snows and 2 KU storms after. One mid February and one mid march. 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Wentzadelphia said:

I don’t know, October 2011had that inland snowstorm at the end of the month and that winter sucked. I always seemed to think (and obviously this has no factual evidence) that a cold October lead to warm winters...Weenie that I am. 

I ran the numbers on anomalous early snow a few years ago. It seemed there wasn't much correlation between October cold or snow in the interior (mountains or upstate PA for instance) but there was a bad outcome for winter snowfall in years where accumulating snow occurred into the urban corridor in October. 2011 fitting that as some snow accumulated into the far western parts of the area. But that is such a small sample size that it's hard to prescribe much significance to it. With only a few examples it could just be coincidence. 

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

I hope these cold outbreaks aren't arriving too early for our region.

https://l.facebook.com/l.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.perspectaweather.com%2Fblog%2F2018%2F10%2F15%2F1255-pm-numerous-cold-air-outbreaks-for-the-eastern-us-during-the-second-half-of-october&h=AT1GR4ApG-c35z8JjW6lmFxNkG2xW_fE8uQh3K36vnN9skPQPdwP-v8rZ47qjvagrgK2iCySnbh4jiUC7UfO8vdvxVxZgZXTlaj5rXNxdlcUL1aYbLWKKKbbdqjX4Ou-xqPcOPMgJUVDkDxEQhsQal6QyuHX1kFrjyo-4wYLlQj9cQawDpH4u0PnH0GiNxHXGQ6paanZPJVQ-zdHr1kOvHjqbkeOoVjr1TC0m8ohInBaZjiFL1yK2xydvR6_KAIMUARb8zAIjx6vZuhgk20gPZ0vOaWH_yFYxRP4HAqTDuG9-Rk67c_KBROMvUvbfOgziUJRwtc0CVajYs3F30mVcNfe4XZyTDEgmd-sPqMOXEElZ070AoZJLDdGhSEcghvQ3I2nG8Vih4I8sUNhfnz9Wk-Dbw5vYA

[frd]

 

Ventrice 's low frequency forecast tool , that helps look at the El Nino like conditions ( in another way )  has done very well the past few months , today he posted this below . Thought  it was interesting,  as it mimics the Euro Seasonal forecast . As he goes on to mention,  the connection most likely is the El Nino itself as the main driver in the Euro's forecast, as per Ventrice that is. 

 

 

 

[frd]

Wonder if this helps us down the road , referring to the shake up at the top . Maybe we keep the PV on the weaker side and more prone to wave activity . 

The second image talks about the impact of the recent hurricanes , Atlantic and Pacific on the pattern. 

 

 

[Bob Chill]

Is Dec 09 really the last time DCA had a warning level event in Dec? I think it might be my yard as well. I had a decent event in Dec 13 but I dont think it was 5"+. I'll have to check my records but a good Dec snowstorm has been really rare the last 10 years. Dec 2010 was almost a great storm but we all know how that went down. Lol

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

17 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Is Dec 09 really the last time DCA had a warning level event in Dec? I think it might be my yard as well. I had a decent event in Dec 13 but I dont think it was 5"+. I'll have to check my records but a good Dec snowstorm has been really rare the last 10 years. Dec 2010 was almost a great storm but we all know how that went down. Lol

It may be very location-dependent of course, but thinking about it (now that you mentioned it!), I cannot recall a warning-level event at least where I'm at since 2009.  Wow!  We had some decent cold and minor snow/ice events a couple of years since, most notably the one in 2013 as you state.  But 5"+?  Can't think of any since Dec. 18-19, 2009 (and of course that was one of the "big ones" that year).  That said, I seem to recall some areas farther outside the immediate suburban DC area that got decent snow since then, perhaps(?), but that's maybe about it.  And of course we just missed out on the storm-that-shall-not-be-named in "late December" 2010 (Voldemort...errr, Boxing Day)!

The unreal and nearly non-stop winter of 2013-14 really didn't get going until January as I recall, though December wasn't a total dud that year either.

[CAPE]

50 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Is Dec 09 really the last time DCA had a warning level event in Dec? I think it might be my yard as well. I had a decent event in Dec 13 but I dont think it was 5"+. I'll have to check my records but a good Dec snowstorm has been really rare the last 10 years. Dec 2010 was almost a great storm but we all know how that went down. Lol

Low end warning level event here...5" (ducks)

We had a solid advisory level event last December IIRC. I think it was 3-3.5" in my yard. Not sure about DC but I think some folks in the northern burbs may have hit warning criteria. You are right though, Decembers have been pretty lean for snow in the DC area in recent years. Going forward it would be nice if Dec could become a winter month for awhile- the new March, and March can revert back to a Spring month.