Winter 2018-19 Is Coming

[poolz1]

I watch it every time it's posted....miss that guy.

[psuhoffman]

24 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

I watch it every time it's posted....miss that guy.

He was hilarious and left us much too soon. 

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

He was hilarious and left us much too soon. 

Great physical comic. Underrated for sure.

[CAPE]

Fwiw (not much) latest CFS runs are looking pretty decent for Dec and Jan, and quite good for Feb and March. This has been a gradual trend for the better from recent total crapola runs. Of course, we all know how it goes with that model.

[frd]

13 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Fwiw (not much) latest CFS runs are looking pretty decent for Dec and Jan, and quite good for Feb and March. This has been a gradual trend for the better from recent total crapola runs. Of course, we all know how it goes with that model.

Well, two things for certain .............................March is the new December, and  Dewey Beach is the new Boston     :-)    

 

 

[psuhoffman]

I like where we are right now. All of the major factors that contribute to our winter pattern are either in a favorable phase or ambiguous. There aren't any big red flags where I see it and think "uh oh". That wasn't true the last couple years. Even heading into 2015-16 we knew with a basin wide super nino temps were going to be a problem.  This year has some of the ingredients we need to hope for a good outcome.  I'm cautiously optimistic at this point. 

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, frd said:

Well, two things for certain .............................March is the new December, and  Dewey Beach is the new Boston     :-)    

 

 

Considering I did back to back chases at Rehoboth the last 2 Januarys for the best snowstorm(s) of those winters, seems the immediate coast has been on a bit of roll. That likely wont be the case if we get a legit El Nino, however. Those areas could still do okay, but areas further inland would likely be the biggest beneficiaries.

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Considering I did back to back chases at Rehoboth the last 2 Januarys for the best snowstorm(s) of those winters, seems the immediate coast has been on a bit of roll. That likely wont be the case if we get a legit El Nino, however. Those areas could still do okay, but areas further inland would likely be the biggest beneficiaries.

Keep talking, I'm listening...

[CAPE]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Keep talking, I'm listening...

lol

You know what I'm talkin' bout.

[nj2va]

8 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Considering I did back to back chases at Rehoboth the last 2 Januarys for the best snowstorm(s) of those winters, seems the immediate coast has been on a bit of roll. That likely wont be the case if we get a legit El Nino, however. Those areas could still do okay, but areas further inland would likely be the biggest beneficiaries.

I am 100% chasing to the beach this year if they get a big one.  Your pictures were drool worthy last year.  

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said:

lol

You know what I'm talkin' bout.

Ninos are usually money up here. This is true. 

[CAPE]

Just now, nj2va said:

I am 100% chasing to the beach this year if they get a big one.  Your pictures were drool worthy last year.  

Fun times for sure.

007 in OC did better work last Jan in the blizzard with all his vids though.

[CAPE]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Ninos are usually money up here. This is true. 

Yup. I am thinking I will finally be going with plan A for this winters' road trip- Canaan. Total fluke that the past 2 winters that's where I was planning to go, and both times the most snow during that period ended up at the beaches lol.

[frd]

1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Considering I did back to back chases at Rehoboth the last 2 Januarys for the best snowstorm(s) of those winters, seems the immediate coast has been on a bit of roll. That likely wont be the case if we get a legit El Nino, however. Those areas could still do okay, but areas further inland would likely be the biggest beneficiaries.

Blizzard warnings at the beach 2 out of the the last 4 winters beating the inland areas I believe .   Incredible really,  and very surreal images there. Your photos I still recall in my mind .  

[Bob Chill]

I like everything I see so far. Broad brush looks like not a particularly cold winter. Prob AN DJF but to get warning level events we either need lots of luck or a southern stream. Unless there's some sort of gross reversal with enso, seems like odds favor at least one or more warning level event. Prob back half of winter for the close burbs. Total wag but AN Dec temps could spoil a good track storm. If I lived in the northern tier I would be cautiously excited already. 

We can hold off on Dec analysis for another 6 weeks tho. No sense worrying about things that far out in time.

[Scraff]

Let’s Gooooooo Mountaineers!! And let’s go this...

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

 

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

I like everything I see so far. Broad brush looks like not a particularly cold winter. Prob AN DJF but to get warning level events we either need lots of luck or a southern stream. Unless there's some sort of gross reversal with enso, seems like odds favor at least one or more warning level event. Prob back half of winter for the close burbs. Total wag but AN Dec temps could spoil a good track storm. If I lived in the northern tier I would be cautiously excited already. 

We can hold off on Dec analysis for another 6 weeks tho. No sense worrying about things that far out in time. 

What shows +Ts?

[Bob Chill]

10 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

 

What shows +Ts?

Nino's generally aren't cold winters. Weak is the best chance. Just going off recent Nino's since 2000 and warmer background conditions. Even with 09-10's exceptionally high snowfall the winter itself wasn't very cold. The Feb back to back storms melted fast. Same with the Dec storm. We did have some solid cold in Jan/early Feb tho but it was also a record blocking year. 

I don't put much stock in seasonal models when it comes to temps but the cfs and CanSips are AN DJF. Jamstec is also AN iirc. That's not why I think this winter will be at or above normal though. Just going off of climo and the fact that the northern hemisphere has been running warm for years in general. 

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Nino's generally aren't cold winters. Weak is the best chance. Just going off recent Nino's since 2000 and warmer background conditions. Even with 09-10's exceptionally high snowfall the winter itself wasn't very cold. The Feb back to back storms melted fast. Same with the Dec storm. We did have some solid cold in Jan/early Feb tho but it was also a record blocking year. 

I don't put much stock in seasonal models when it comes to temps but the cfs and CanSips are AN DJF. Jamstec is also AN iirc. That's not why I think this winter will be at or above normal though. Just going off of climo and the fact that the northern hemisphere has been running warm for years in general. 

I've always gone off this generally which shows a -T tendency for nino years. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ENSO/composites/

[Bob Chill]

2 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

I've always gone off this generally which shows a -T tendency for nino years. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ENSO/composites/

I don't think temp analogs pre 2000 are as useful anymore unfortunately. I could see a BN DJF if persistent blocking sets up early. Won't know how that breaks for at least 6 weeks. If the ao/nao are positive during Dec then the chances of BN DJF goes down significantly. I'm just sharing my guesses. I'll get excited for cold and snow when things look good at reasonable leads. Basically when I'm eating turkey and staring at ens runs with a big red ball at h5 over Greenland and/or the pole. A big blue ball in those areas and I'll keep my shorts and flip-flops handy

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

4 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

I don't think temp analogs pre 2000 are as useful anymore unfortunately. I could see a BN DJF if persistent blocking sets up early. Won't know how that breaks for at least 6 weeks. If the ao/nao are positive during Dec then the chances of BN DJF goes down significantly. I'm just sharing my guesses. I'll get excited for cold and snow when things look good at reasonable leads. Basically when I'm eating turkey and staring at ens runs with a big red ball at h5 over Greenland and/or the pole. A big blue ball in those areas and I'll keep my shorts and flip-flops handy

What about CIPS?

[psuhoffman]

7 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

I like everything I see so far. Broad brush looks like not a particularly cold winter. Prob AN DJF but to get warning level events we either need lots of luck or a southern stream. Unless there's some sort of gross reversal with enso, seems like odds favor at least one or more warning level event. Prob back half of winter for the close burbs. Total wag but AN Dec temps could spoil a good track storm. If I lived in the northern tier I would be cautiously excited already. 

We can hold off on Dec analysis for another 6 weeks tho. No sense worrying about things that far out in time.

I think we are generally on the same page. But I could see this winter end up a bit below normal on temps. Nothing frigid. Not talking one of our truly cold winters. But depending on what climo you use, if we take recent climo it's not hard to get slightly below normal temps around D.C.  And even slightly above would seem cold given recent history. 

I doubt we get any prolonged arctic outbreaks this year but at the same time I don't think we get ant prolonged torches like we've had in recent years either.  If we get overall near to slightly above normal temps most of the winter but throw in a few cold weeks due to snowcover and the overall mean could end up slightly below  

 

[Maestrobjwa]

7 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Nino's generally aren't cold winters. Weak is the best chance. Just going off recent Nino's since 2000 and warmer background conditions. Even with 09-10's exceptionally high snowfall the winter itself wasn't very cold. The Feb back to back storms melted fast. Same with the Dec storm. We did have some solid cold in Jan/early Feb tho but it was also a record blocking year. 

I don't put much stock in seasonal models when it comes to temps but the cfs and CanSips are AN DJF. Jamstec is also AN iirc. That's not why I think this winter will be at or above normal though. Just going off of climo and the fact that the northern hemisphere has been running warm for years in general. 

So essentially...around here, if ya see stretches of downright, teens/single digits frigid snow is less likely (which happens more in a La Niña?) But, if ya see temps that are the average to slightly below-average...more storms (but even then ya need more atmosphere stuff to battle that 32 degree line just cold enough?) Mercy...he have got to have the most complex region for getting snow in the entire country!!! Now, I take it 2014-15 had said frigid temps but also included above-average snow because it was more of a negative-neutral?

[nj2va]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Cold and dry will not work for wintry appeal. We had that last December and January and people were getting reaped by the day. It’s all about putting up numbers. I don’t do the truly long range stuff and I tend to wait until around thanksgiving to really care, but this is about as good a look with few real red flags as I’ve seen in a while. Hopefully, we get production in the good pattern windows. 

Easy for you to say now that you’re in SNE where all you have to do is sneeze and poof! here comes 16” of snow.  

[Yanksfan]

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Oh how I pray  

With my luck it’ll be another 09-10 with suppression depression in NE and monster after monster down there. If so, I’ll pay double the going rate for your place out near McHenry.

Perhaps it'll be a year where they come right up the coastline and DC to Boston gets crushed. Just like the good ol' days.

[CAPE]

9 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Cold and dry will not work for wintry appeal. We had that last December and January and people were getting reaped by the day. It’s all about putting up numbers. I don’t do the truly long range stuff and I tend to wait until around thanksgiving to really care, but this is about as good a look with few real red flags as I’ve seen in a while. Hopefully, we get production in the good pattern windows. 

I like the cold. I will take a bitter cold blast that yields little snow, because the great majority of winters it's not a persistent feature in this region. A Nina winter can and will screw this area regardless of the degree of cold. And it can work out sometimes, even in Nina- the coastal blizzard in January came during the 'cold and dry' period. It just didn't happen for the cities and points west. If this winter is going to feature an El Nino, there will be some chances for juicy storms in the MA. Hopefully there will be enough cold around during those times, otherwise there will be constant complaints of warm and wet, lol.

[Bob Chill]

14 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

I think we are generally on the same page. But I could see this winter end up a bit below normal on temps. Nothing frigid. Not talking one of our truly cold winters. But depending on what climo you use, if we take recent climo it's not hard to get slightly below normal temps around D.C.  And even slightly above would seem cold given recent history. 

I doubt we get any prolonged arctic outbreaks this year but at the same time I don't think we get ant prolonged torches like we've had in recent years either.  If we get overall near to slightly above normal temps most of the winter but throw in a few cold weeks due to snowcover and the overall mean could end up slightly below  

 

We're on the same exact page probably. Cold ninos are weak or mod and come with a neg ao/nao. Back half of 02-03 was kinda weird because when blocking relaxed the +pna stepped in. It was a great door to door nino winter with no extended warm spells. PD2 was refreshed several times into March and snowcover days late in the season were remarkable. 

I can easily see how we can go below normal temp wise but it will require the string of +ao/nao Decembers to end this year. Need to start off on the right foot. I'll reserve enthusiasm until I can see it inside of 2 weeks. 

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

4 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

We're on the same exact page probably. Cold ninos are weak or mod and come with a neg ao/nao. Back half of 02-03 was kinda weird because when blocking relaxed the +pna stepped in. It was a great door to door nino winter with no extended warm spells. PD2 was refreshed several times into March and snowcover days late in the season were remarkable. 

I can easily see how we can go below normal temp wise but it will require the string of +ao/nao Decembers to end this year. Need to start off on the right foot. I'll reserve enthusiasm until I can see it inside of 2 weeks. 

[Jebman]

The Mid Atlantic Region is right on track for a major snow winter. Get your shovels and snowblowers ready. One analog Cosgrove mentioned is 2009-2010. If this winter does turn out to be another 2009-2010.............................It will be much worse, new snow records will be set and then broken several times, even in downtown Washington DC.

You are all going to get buried ALIVE in snow this winter. I might have to fly into Dulles to see one of them personally. It will be a pleasant break from midsummer down here, lol.

In the meantime, Austin TX is exactly like the Amazonian Region with ongoing dewpoints pegged at 78 degrees with ambient temps around 88 degrees ugh. It may continue into the Holidays. ugh x a quintillion

Even as I slowly get crocked here in south central hot Texas all fall and "winter", I will faithfully be pulling hard for record snows and vodka cold in my hometown of Dale City Virginia and for the entirety of the greater Mid Atlantic Region.

[frd]

 

No surprises here but ........ wonder about the future here: 

Persist or switch -  

This is like the Holy Grail........................

A met who can devise a way to predict the average Winter state would be a golden  

On a side note,  a lot of changes coming up with the SSTs in this region,  but the real driver is still not known, at least not enough to make an accurate long term forecast