Winter 2018-19 Is Coming

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

2004-05 wasn't that bad. After a bad start mid January on had several 3"+ snowfall events across the region with a few healthy clippers mixed in. We just missed a bigger storm a couple times too. But it certainly wasn't a dud. If anything it was the rare example of a median "average" snowfall winter. I wouldn't cry if we get a somewhat similar year. 

Nothing special here. https://www.wunderground.com/history/monthly/us/dc/washington/KDCA/date/2005-1

[poolz1]

Interesting how things have flipped in terms of rainfall. Looks dry except for scattered storms  later today ad then a record High Pressure ridge next week building oover the Eastern States. I look for very warm and dry weather. Funny the SOI continues to plummet yet temps here well above normal.  I guess the second part of the month could turn out wetter as the EPS shows a pattern change after mid month.  

Give us this same MJO in Nov and winter starts early. IMO, we are right where we should be....though the over amplified nature of the pattern is a bit extreme. As you said, SOI continues it’s fall and the MJO is taking a tour of 8,1 & 2 then back to the COD which is not cold this time of year....

Maybe we are seeing where the MJO wants to set up this season as the elnino comes on? It’s kind of like the banter on here about snow in October being a dagger for winter...coldest phase in Oct is 5, iirc. Give us a phase 5 during the winter months and it’s close the blinds.


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[Maestrobjwa]

3 hours ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

The closest sstas for mid - late September is 2004...slightly concerning

Hey, I ain't too concerned about one more crap winter...because if history is any indicator...the next one COULD be good if not great! Our time is coming...lol

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Nothing special here. https://www.wunderground.com/history/monthly/us/dc/washington/KDCA/date/2005-1

I didn't say it was special but definitely not bad.  DCA had 12.5" of snow which is above their median.  In the last 30 years only 10 had more snow at DCA.  Only 1/3 do we get more snow then that year. And a few of those were only more by an inch or two!!!  So in reality only about 20% of the time can we expect a winter that's snowier then that. 

Now those are all facts. But people have every right to feel however they want. JI can complain during a year he gets 70". (See 2010 no joke). And no one can tell you how to feel. But I do want to make sure we know what reality is and that a winter like 2004-05 is snowier then most here and if that is something that is disappointing then you are setting yourself up to be let down a lot. And that's fine but then we don't need to hear from some of the usual suspects who seem to think we should get 20"+ every year and complain incessantly all winter when we don't.  It's bad enough having the listen to them all winter in a legit bad year but we don't need them acting that way even when we get a decent year because they don't know climo. 

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

This was mentioned as a pick of the week on weatherbrains last night. https://spaceweatherarchive.com/2018/09/27/the-chill-of-solar-minimum/

[yoda]

We like

17 minutes ago, uncle W said:

look at some of the great winters when the spot cycle is near the low point...some epic winters in there...

1933-34...very cold and snowy in the east...big snows in the east...

1944-45...very cold...

1955-56...very cold start and ending...big March snows in the east...

1963-64...great winter in the east...east coast blizzard...

1977-78...epic winter in the east...east coast blizzard...

1986-87...big snows in DC...

1995-96...big snows everywhere

2009-10...big snows galore in the east...

only 1944-45 did not have a major storm in the northeast...

1957-58 came during a peak Sun spot period...57-58 belongs with the years mentioned above...some really snowless east coast winters during the high peaks...

 

 

[frd]

40 minutes ago, yoda said:

We like

 

Seems HM thinks we should not use the later 70's or the 94-95 one ,

I believe one one reason for not using the 70's is he feels we are not in that regime and for the 94 one too close to the volcanic eruption  and other factors he mentions below. 

Hey I am totally fine with using 09-10  though per uncle W   :-)

 

 

 

[frd]

18 hours ago, poolz1 said:

 

Give us this same MJO in Nov and winter starts early. IMO, we are right where we should be....though the over amplified nature of the pattern is a bit extreme. As you said, SOI continues it’s fall and the MJO is taking a tour of 8,1 & 2 then back to the COD which is not cold this time of year....

Maybe we are seeing where the MJO wants to set up this season as the elnino comes on? It’s kind of like the banter on here about snow in October being a dagger for winter...coldest phase in Oct is 5, iirc. Give us a phase 5 during the winter months and it’s close the blinds.


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Thats all true and interesting as well. 

As for the turn to wetter here , that seems off into the future a bit . My daughter in Denver might see snow soon.  

Pretty wet out West and in Cali rain , wow 

 

 

 

[Sparky]

23 hours ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Then my next step is to see when in October the precipitable water values were high.

eta: not much to see here

eta eta: not many warm Septembers for weak modoki ninos.  2004-05 is the only weak modoki nino +T Sep

I remember that wet October 1976 which led into the severely cold record breaking winter.  The storms were nor'easters for the most part and were often followed by strong cold air masses which brought early freezes and frost to the Baltimore area.   Fall foliage was noticeably early that year too, I can recall after one of the early freezes (around the 18th I think) many trees started  dropping leaves with or without much wind because they were basically frozen off.

[stadiumwave]

On 10/1/2018 at 7:33 AM, showmethesnow said:

LOL. Nah, you caught me. Actually didn't look at the precip departures. Got so hung up on the 500's and following the torch in the arctic that I never even looked at them. Glancing over them now and December is probably indicative of systems running to our west and though the 500's are pretty zonal it does have the hints of troughing setting up in the west which would support that idea. Jan's precip departures look promising and its distribution would possibly suggest the threat of Miller A's? Considering that it is primo climo for cold it might not matter as much if the pv is farther north then desirable and the cold with it . Feb though I am not so sure the neg departures are result of suppression when you see the pv located so far to the north. Think the positive anomalies to our south are more a function of an active southern jet especially when I see + departures in southern Cali/Arizona into northern Baja. When I also see + precip anomalies just north of Maine I think the Cansips may be suggesting we see southern systems run off the SE coast and then turn up with the -Nao in place. Unfortunately it looks to favor a more eastern solution with that run up the coast so we are seeing the NorEaster's impacts much farther to the north bypassing our region. This would probably suggest that the Cansips favors an eastern based -NAO.

 

East based -NAO favors plains/OV. West based favors easy coast 

[showmethesnow]

2 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

 

East based -NAO favors plains/OV. West based favors easy coast 

What do you normally score off with a Eastt based NAO? Impulses/Clippers running down with the jet?

As far as the east coast we can score occasionally with an eastern based NAO but far to often the eastern trough is shifted east thus when it goes neg tilt that is shifted east as well. This in turn typically drives the coastal storm track farther OTS as it runs up the coast. To get a benchmark run we typically need to see a centrally or western based NAO. The Central typically is more favorable for those to the north while a western favors to the south. One thing left unsaid up to this point is that the 50/50 quite often plays a major role. Timing, placement, strength can quite often have the final say.

[showmethesnow]

15 day GEFS shows well the seasonal transitioning to a stronger pv.

 

 

[attml]

Itt's snowing in North Dakota!  :-)

[WEATHER53]

Early October warmth has nice winter outcomes.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On October 2, 2018 at 1:10 PM, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

The closest sstas for mid - late September is 2004...slightly concerning

I'd take it.

[yoda]

20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'd take it.

I'd pass down here

[frd]

31 minutes ago, yoda said:

I'd pass down here

Agree, yuck !!  

Yoda do you know when the Euro seasonal is released again ?  I thought it was today ? 

[psuhoffman]

As analogs start popping up, all this talk of what years people find acceptable and what years earn a "pass" I wanted to post some reality of what climo actually is.  I preface this by saying I have no right to tell anyone what their opinion of a "good winter" should be.  That is subjective.  But I do think it is valuable to know what the numbers say is typical for our area because if someone wants to consider only years where we get 30" good that is totally their right...but if they then act like that is what should happen every year and subject the board to constant whining when 90% of our winter's fall short of that is not cool IMO.  

First of all people should stop using the mean as their judge of "typical".  Our means are skewed by the handful of blockbuster winters in the last 30 years.  Just about every site (even up here) has a median that is significantly lower then the mean.  The median (kind of like the 50/50 over under) is a better judge of what typical is.  Even that isnt perfect as we have a LOT of varience in this area but its closer to what you can expect as a 50/50 over under year to year.  About half the time you will beat that number.  And half you will not.  For up here my Mean is close to 40" but my median is only 31".  So my goal each year is to get close to 30".  As long as I don't finish significantly under that I don't feel like it was a "bad" year.  Yea my mean is 40 but a year somewhere in the 25-35" range is actually typical and only 30% or so of winters actually are better then that.  Those years with 60"+ skew the mean.  

Also we should probably look at what the 30 year numbers tell us using the last 30 years...not the climo numbers from 1980 to 2010 because we are close to the end of this decade and the new "normals" are going to change and reflect this decade.  So I used the 30 years going back to the 1989 season to compile the numbers below.

DCA 

Mean: 13.9"

Median: 10.1"

BWI

Mean: 19.6"

Median: 15.3"

IAD

mean: 21.4"

Median: 14.7"

 

So recently there seems to be a consensus that 2004/5 sucked.  But at all 3 airports it was above the median.

IAD: 17.3

DCA: 12.5

BWI: 18

So for each station it was a decent amount over our median and looking at the last 30 years if we count seasons that ended up within an inch of that year...only about 30% of our winters will be better then that.  So if people want to consider 2005 a crappy year that is totally fine, as long as they realize that 70% of years will be only that good OR WORSE!!!

 

[frd]

15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

As analogs start popping up, all this talk of what years people find acceptable and what years earn a "pass" I wanted to post some reality of what climo actually is.  I preface this by saying I have no right to tell anyone what their opinion of a "good winter" should be.  That is subjective.  But I do think it is valuable to know what the numbers say is typical for our area because if someone wants to consider only years where we get 30" good that is totally their right...but if they then act like that is what should happen every year and subject the board to constant whining when 90% of our winter's fall short of that is not cool IMO.  

First of all people should stop using the mean as their judge of "typical".  Our means are skewed by the handful of blockbuster winters in the last 30 years.  Just about every site (even up here) has a median that is significantly lower then the mean.  The median (kind of like the 50/50 over under) is a better judge of what typical is.  Even that isnt perfect as we have a LOT of varience in this area but its closer to what you can expect as a 50/50 over under year to year.  About half the time you will beat that number.  And half you will not.  For up here my Mean is close to 40" but my median is only 31".  So my goal each year is to get close to 30".  As long as I don't finish significantly under that I don't feel like it was a "bad" year.  Yea my mean is 40 but a year somewhere in the 25-35" range is actually typical and only 30% or so of winters actually are better then that.  Those years with 60"+ skew the mean.  

Also we should probably look at what the 30 year numbers tell us using the last 30 years...not the climo numbers from 1980 to 2010 because we are close to the end of this decade and the new "normals" are going to change and reflect this decade.  So I used the 30 years going back to the 1989 season to compile the numbers below.

DCA 

Mean: 13.9"

Median: 10.1"

BWI

Mean: 19.6"

Median: 15.3"

IAD

mean: 21.4"

Median: 14.7"

 

So recently there seems to be a consensus that 2004/5 sucked.  But at all 3 airports it was above the median.

IAD: 17.3

DCA: 12.5

BWI: 18

So for each station it was a decent amount over our median and looking at the last 30 years if we count seasons that ended up within an inch of that year...only about 30% of our winters will be better then that.  So if people want to consider 2005 a crappy year that is totally fine, as long as they realize that 70% of years will be only that good OR WORSE!!!

 

Nice way to look at things in a almost a Zen-like manner  :-) 

In many lean years 2005 would indeed be great in comparison  

  

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

It's fine to live life on a spreadsheet with a calculator in hand, but we are human beings. On paper, 2005 was fine there, but watching my area get buried with a parade of Miller Bs, while the mid atl got scraps must have been frustrating. 

2010 is among my most misersble of winters, but its looks perfectly fine in an excel file.

 

[psuhoffman]

14 minutes ago, frd said:

Nice way to look at things in a almost a Zen-like manner  :-) 

In many lean years 2005 would indeed be great in comparison  

  

 

I am not trying to be all preachy, but at times I worry that our perception isn't in line with reality...and that leads to even more whining and complaining when winter cannot live up to the expectation most of the time.  Of course I dream of those dream years like 96, 2003, 2010, 2014... but I try to keep my expectations in check so I don't spend most of the winter season driving everyone crazy with constant complaints.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I am not trying to be all preachy, but at times I worry that our perception isn't in line with reality...and that leads to even more whining and complaining when winter cannot live up to the expectation most of the time.  Of course I dream of those dream years like 96, 2003, 2010, 2014... but I try to keep my expectations in check so I don't spend most of the winter season driving everyone crazy with constant complaints.  

 Very true...we all are invested and have emotions...needs to be a balance.

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It's fine to live life on a spreadsheet with a calculator in hand, but we are human beings. On paper, 2005 was fine there, but watching my area get buried with a parade of Miller B, while the mid atl got scraps is frustrsting. 

2010 is among my most misersble of winters, but its looks perfectly fine in an excel file.

 

I understand your point... and I get that "feeling" sometimes... but to counter that, if we get miserable every time we have a truly bad winter...and when we have decent ones but where New England did better... we are going to be miserable A LOT.  lol  

Plus in 2004/5 we did have a couple a pretty decent hits.  I get why some were "let down" with the January event but it was still a 3-7" event area wide so its not like the numerous examples where New England got 2 feet and we got scraps...it still was a decent event.  And then we had 2 flush hits for our area in late February.  Both were 4-6" events.  So in the end our area had 3 SECS level events that winter.  For our standards thats better then most of our winters.  

Nothing you said is wrong...I am not trying to be contentious...these are all just preference.  But MOST winters here we will not have multiple MECS level events and 20+" of snow and for me it gets frustrating when an army of frustrated snow weenies who have out of touch with reality expectations flood our discussion threads with constant complaints EVERY winter that doesn't end up being those 96 or 2010 fluke years.  

[psuhoffman]

9 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

The blockbuster years are offset by the duds.  Averages are fine.

I will disagree.

1.  The blockbuster years can be WAY more over then the duds are under.  So they do not offset numerically as you imply.

2.  People often misapply MEAN or AVERAGE to mean what is typical or what should we expect.  If we are trying to create an expectation of what is typical or (what happens most of the time) around here the median is a much more accurate indicator.  At DCA the official mean has only been reached 7 times in the last 30 years.  That means only 23% of the time did DCA attain its mean.  

Now only you can set your expectations and you can set them however you want.  But I would not EXPECT something or define it as TYPICAL if it only happens 23% of the time.  The median or what happens 50% seems more logical to me.  

[psuhoffman]

10 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

The blockbuster years are offset by the duds.  Averages are fine.

eta: DCA's average over the last 30 years is a little over 1" less than the entire record.  That's fact. 

Yea... global warming.  But that's the reality of where we are NOW.  Expecting something that is no longer normal will just frustrate people.  I am talking about what our climo is NOW not what it used to be. 

[frd]

 

The Euro Winter forecasts continues it's positive streak to three months with the latest release  :

YES Please   :-)   

 

 

 

 

 

 

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

On 10/4/2018 at 12:33 AM, Tenman Johnson said:

Early October warmth has nice winter outcomes.

What's interesting is when I compiled weak nino winters both good and bad snow seasons had negative October anomalies for our region.  Then I tried the same for moderate good snow modoki ninos and got just what you said!

 

Moderate Modoki good snow

 

Weak Modoki good snow

 

Weak Modoki low snow

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

Since 1986, every 8 years we've had a moderate modoki nino!  1986-87, 1994-95, 2002-03, 2009-10, 2018-19?  We're due!

[poolz1]

That's a pretty sig spike getting ready to occur....if the Euro is correct.  Yea...new euro seasonal looks beautiful...even better than the Sep run imo.

 

[psuhoffman]

18 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

That's a pretty sig spike getting ready to occur....if the Euro is correct.  Yea...new euro seasonal looks beautiful...even better than the Sep run imo.