Winter 2018-19 Is Coming

[frd]

 

In addition to the above post about vertical wave activity there is this as well.  I expect some news headlines soon about this as we enter October.  

Pretty crazy stuff not to mention the over nght Euro 's forecast of a record shattering High Prssure area up near NW Alaska to set up.  Plus, that combined with the warmer El Nino  ocean current and the warmer air masses ( typhoon recurve ) and together that adds up to the NSW and the CPC calling for a warm October. ( With a rather high confidence mark of 80 % .....  WOW ) 

Also a later, almost near record for the sea ice minimum

 https://nsidc.org/news/newsroom/arctic-sea-ice-2018-minimum-extent

And here the forecasts of a warm October , incredible forecast due to the high confidence level 

https://nsidc.org/news/newsroom/arctic-sea-ice-2018-minimum-extent

You have to think we are in a uncharted state , wondering my self about the role of this with the early season formation of the PV and the relationship to high lattitude blocking. 

Will be fascinating to watch how things unfold.    

 

 

[frd]

Not sure where this piece of the puzzle fits in, but  If I am understanding HM correctly then the walk cell for this winter is not in the favor of snow lovers in the Mid Atlanitc at least.  

 

 

[Maestrobjwa]

13 minutes ago, frd said:

Not sure where this piece of the puzzle fits in, but  If I am understanding HM correctly then the walk cell for this winter is not in the favor of snow lovers in the Mid Atlanitc at least.  

 

 

This weather novice doesn't always understand his posts...lol But what is this "Walker cell"? And do we know what it's doing now? (the fact that 94/95 and 06/07 keep coming up in the discussion is one reason why I have some doubts about this winter...)

[frd]

49 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

This weather novice doesn't always understand his posts...lol But what is this "Walker cell"? And do we know what it's doing now? (the fact that 94/95 and 06/07 keep coming up in the discussion is one reason why I have some doubts about this winter...)

Well it could be related to the area in the Pacific where the greatest lift is located and how strong   By just looking at 87 and 09  they were stronger Modaki El Ninos .  

If that is the case then stronger West based El Nino the better.  I am a bit confused because you have the largest area of sub surface warmth located in the West Pac right now. 

I think there is more to it than this though.  Going to have to see how the SSTs develop in the Gulf of Alaska as well.  The high lattitude blocking this season, or the lack of it, could be a game changer.  

Still very early to call things,  in a month we can get a decent idea on the evolution of the PV and we can get an idea as well about snow cover in Canada , the QBO,  and changes in the PAC and whether the El Nino is still going to be weak still and if there any any signs it going more East. 

I  even see the mention of a two year Nino, with next year's Nino being a significant event.  

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, frd said:

Well it could be related to the area in the Pacific where the greatest lift is located and how strong   By just looking at 87 and 09  they were stronger Modaki El Ninos .  

If that is the case then stronger West based El Nino the better.  I am a bit confused because you have the largest area of sub surface warmth located in the West Pac right now. 

I think there is more to it than this though.  Going to have to see how the SSTs develop in the Gulf of Alaska as well.  The high lattitude blocking this season, or the lack of it, could be a game changer.  

Still very early to call things,  in a month we can get a decent idea on the evolution of the PV and we can get an idea as well about snow cover in Canada , the QBO,  and changes in the PAC and whether the El Nino is still going to be weak still and if there any any signs it going more East. 

I  even see the mention of a two year Nino, with next year's Nino being a significant event.  

I think that's only fair since we've had to endure a two-year Nina (blech). And also, if I were a betting man...that would put the odds of a better winter next winter instead of the upcoming winter...But hey, maybe we can kinda score this year and score more next year?  Minimum + Niño ftw!

[poolz1]

12 hours ago, frd said:

Not sure where this piece of the puzzle fits in, but  If I am understanding HM correctly then the walk cell for this winter is not in the favor of snow lovers in the Mid Atlanitc at least.  

 

 

Isn't the strength of the nino determined, to a certain extent, by the strength of the walker cell?  This has always been forecasted to be a weak nino to perhaps moderate.  Having the walker cell weaker shouldnt be a surprise, right?  Would think that other factors, as you noted, would have a greater chance of affecting the cold season pattern than if we had a solid mod/strong ninio throwing it's weight around.

eta: I'm honestly questioning because I dont know....I understand very little about what HM posts some times.

[CAPE]

2 hours ago, poolz1 said:

Isn't the strength of the nino determined, to a certain extent, by the strength of the walker cell?  This has always been forecasted to be a weak nino to perhaps moderate.  Having the walker cell weaker shouldnt be a surprise, right?  Would think that other factors, as you noted, would have a greater chance of affecting the cold season pattern than if we had a solid mod/strong ninio throwing it's weight around.

eta: I'm honestly questioning because I dont know....I understand very little about what HM posts some times.

 

15 hours ago, frd said:

Not sure where this piece of the puzzle fits in, but  If I am understanding HM correctly then the walk cell for this winter is not in the favor of snow lovers in the Mid Atlanitc at least.  

 

 

Just reading that one tweet, I don't think he is making any statements/predictions about the strength of the walker cell and the impacts for this winter, just stating that there is a relationship/ 'rule of thumb' regarding Walker circulation and ENSO.

If you want more info about the connection between the 2, just google 'walker circulation and enso'.

Good info here: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/walker-circulation-ensos-atmospheric-buddy

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

I added more years and another column for October precipitation leading into Modoki El Ninos.  October precip relative to average @ DCA may give a good estimate of how good a winter we get!

Modoki El Ninos (DCA)
Winter	SOI	Winter Snow	+/- Winter Snow	Winter NAO	Nov Temp	Dec Temp	Nov NAO	Dec NAO	Oct Precip
1952-53	Weak	8.3"	-	-	-	-	-	-	0.66" -
1953-54	Weak	18"	+	+	-	+	+	+	3.73" +
1958-59	Weak	4.9"	-	-	N	-	+	-	2.35" -
1976-77	Weak	11.1"	-	-	-	-	+ (N)	-	7.76" +
1977-78	Weak	22.7"	+	N (+)	+	N / (-)	N	N	5.35" +
1979-80	Weak	20.1"	+	-	+	+	+	+	5.54" +
1986-87	Moderate	31.1"	+	N	-	+	+	+	2.01" -
1991-92	Strong	6.6"	-	+	-	+	+	+	2.03" -
1994-95	Weak/Moderate	10.1"	-	+	+	+	N	+	1.19" -
2002-03	Moderate	40.4"	+	N	-	-	-	N	5" +
2004-05	Weak	12.5"	-	N	+	N	N	+	1.74" -
2009-10	Moderate	46"	+	-	+	-	+	-	5.71" +

 

 

[Maestrobjwa]

35 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

I added more years and another column for October precipitation leading into Modoki El Ninos.  October precip relative to average @ DCA may give a good estimate of how good a winter we get!

Modoki El Ninos (DCA)
Winter	SOI	Winter Snow	+/- Winter Snow	Winter NAO	Nov Temp	Dec Temp	Nov NAO	Dec NAO	Oct Precip
1952-53	Weak	8.3"	-	-	-	-	-	-	0.66" -
1953-54	Weak	18"	+	+	-	+	+	+	3.73" +
1958-59	Weak	4.9"	-	-	N	-	+	-	2.35" -
1976-77	Weak	11.1"	-	-	-	-	+ (N)	-	7.76" +
1977-78	Weak	22.7"	+	N (+)	+	N / (-)	N	N	5.35" +
1979-80	Weak	20.1"	+	-	+	+	+	+	5.54" +
1986-87	Moderate	31.1"	+	N	-	+	+	+	2.01" -
1991-92	Strong	6.6"	-	+	-	+	+	+	2.03" -
1994-95	Weak/Moderate	10.1"	-	+	+	+	N	+	1.19" -
2002-03	Moderate	40.4"	+	N	-	-	-	N	5" +
2004-05	Weak	12.5"	-	N	+	N	N	+	1.74" -
2009-10	Moderate	46"	+	-	+	-	+	-	5.71" +

 

 

 

Dude I was just gonna ask if you could post an extended version of that chart, lol (I actually started looking up the precip totals myself...but had no idea which years were Modoki!) Thanks! Seems like 3.5-5 inches of rain is the sweet spot...lol (also interesting how we had a few instances of back-to-back Modokis....Wonder if that's setting up to happen again?...If so, our odds oughta be pretty good for either this winter, next winter, or both! 

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Dude I was just gonna ask if you could post an extended version of that chart, lol (I actually started looking up the precip totals myself...but had no idea which years were Modoki!) Thanks! Seems like 3.5-5 inches of rain is the sweet spot...lol (also interesting how we had a few instances of back-to-back Modokis....Wonder if that's setting up to happen again?...If so, our odds oughta be pretty good for either this winter, next winter, or both! 

I was thinking the same thing about the 3.50-5 sweet spot! My question is how on Earth did 1977-78 1976-77 have such a high anomaly!

[Maestrobjwa]

12 hours ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

I was thinking the same thing about the 3.50-5 sweet spot! My question is how on Earth did 1977-78 1976-77 have such a high anomaly!

Yeah that is kinda weird...wonder what the total rainfall was for that year? (this year it just feels like it's gonna keep raining buckets...lol) 

 

P.S. That 09-10 snowfall amount isn't quite accurate is it? Wasn't it like 70 inches or something? Lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

I posted this yesterday, guys.

http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2018/09/potential-2018-2019-analogs.html

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

5 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah that is kinda weird...wonder what the total rainfall was for that year? (this year it just feels like it's gonna keep raining buckets...lol) 

 

P.S. That 09-10 snowfall amount isn't quite accurate is it? Wasn't it like 70 inches or something? Lol

They are DCA numbers.

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

5 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah that is kinda weird...wonder what the total rainfall was for that year? (this year it just feels like it's gonna keep raining buckets...lol) 

 

P.S. That 09-10 snowfall amount isn't quite accurate is it? Wasn't it like 70 inches or something? Lol

I also looked at September precip and this year blows away recent history.  2011's 8.84" is the only relatively recent year that comes close to September 2018's 9.73".  On the flip side of things, high precip Septembers led to very low snowfall.  I don't think they were nino year's though, making 2018 another anomaly.

[Maestrobjwa]

55 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

They are DCA numbers.

That'll do it...lol (what is with their measurements, anyway??)

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

15 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

That'll do it...lol (what is with their measurements, anyway??)

I personally believe nothing is wrong with their measurements.  Urban environments can do wonders to ground temperatures.

[Wxdavis5784]

14 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

I personally believe nothing is wrong with their measurements.  Urban environments can do wonders to ground temperatures.

And it’s proximity to the Potomac River.

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I posted this yesterday, guys.

http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2018/09/potential-2018-2019-analogs.html

The blocking signal from your analog package doesn't look so strong to me.  Also, typo at the end... "Stay tuned as we continue to shed more light on winter 2017-2018 this fall into the winter-"

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

The blocking signal from your analog package doesn't look so strong to me.  Also, typo at the end... "Stay tuned as we continue to shed more light on winter 2017-2018 this fall into the winter-"

Thanks...fixed that.

As far as the blocking signal, 2/3 three seasons featured a great deal of blocking, and '53-'54 not so much. Its likely a sample size issue..if I were to include moderate el nino and solar min, then 1963-1964 and 2009-2010 would be included.

Problem solved.

But the point was that the solar min composite is much "blockier" than the max composite.

I think the worse possible outcome from a snow/cold standpoint is 1953-1954.

[showmethesnow]

Latest Cansips is now out. One thing it is reflecting is something I have been watching for a few weeks now in regards to the possible AO state we can expect this winter. As some have noticed we have seen the arctic regions scorching with high temp anomalies. As far as the Cansips is concerned this looks to continue through October as can be seen below.

 

Not only do we see high temp anomalies in October the Cansips suggest we see it through the entire winter. Below we have the averages Nov-Jan and February is scorching as well.

 

Now if true, these warm temps would strongly suggest we could expect a weak, and perturbed PV throughout the winter. In other words a -AO, And looking over the 500's below would suggest that. Though Nov isn't quite as obvious Dec-Feb standout as they all show a weakened and elongated pv.

 

 

 

 

 

Now just going by the Cansips and what it is showing and to nit pick a little. I would prefer to see the warm anomalies centered on our side of our globe off of Canada and Greenland as opposed to off of Russia. Where they are situated now implies that the elongated pv will be situated more towards the other side of the globe and this is exactly what we see as part of the pv plants over eastern Russia while the other lobe is far to our north over the extreme northern Canada and Greenland. This setup suggests that the cold would be situated farther to our north and not readily available. Now one mechanism to drive the cold farther south in this case would be help from the NAO. Unfortunately Nov and Dec don't look promising on the Cansips in that regards. January though shows a little promise and Feb is the best by far.

All and all, looking at the Cansips would suggest it is looking for a mostly back loaded winter with February having the most potential.

[poolz1]

@showmethesnow  I am sure you have already taken a look but Jan looks pretty classic as far as precip distribution goes.  Dec also with +precip anom but looks more OH Valley centered and Feb almost looks like suppression being the only month with a negative precip anom ...

 

[frd]

38 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

@showmethesnow  I am sure you have already taken a look but Jan looks pretty classic as far as precip distribution goes.  Dec also with +precip anom but looks more OH Valley centered and Feb almost looks like suppression being the only month with a negative precip anom ...

 

Funny thing is this matches the Euro monthly wind maps I have posted here about how the Euro's forecast wind depictions could reveal a stormy and wet Jan and a dry Feb  with little wind, that could be meant  to suggest Feb would be cold and dry.  

 

 

 

[showmethesnow]

52 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

@showmethesnow  I am sure you have already taken a look but Jan looks pretty classic as far as precip distribution goes.  Dec also with +precip anom but looks more OH Valley centered and Feb almost looks like suppression being the only month with a negative precip anom ...

 

LOL. Nah, you caught me. Actually didn't look at the precip departures. Got so hung up on the 500's and following the torch in the arctic that I never even looked at them. Glancing over them now and December is probably indicative of systems running to our west and though the 500's are pretty zonal it does have the hints of troughing setting up in the west which would support that idea. Jan's precip departures look promising and its distribution would possibly suggest the threat of Miller A's? Considering that it is primo climo for cold it might not matter as much if the pv is farther north then desirable and the cold with it . Feb though I am not so sure the neg departures are result of suppression when you see the pv located so far to the north. Think the positive anomalies to our south are more a function of an active southern jet especially when I see + departures in southern Cali/Arizona into northern Baja. When I also see + precip anomalies just north of Maine I think the Cansips may be suggesting we see southern systems run off the SE coast and then turn up with the -Nao in place. Unfortunately it looks to favor a more eastern solution with that run up the coast so we are seeing the NorEaster's impacts much farther to the north bypassing our region. This would probably suggest that the Cansips favors an eastern based -NAO.

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

2 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

LOL. Nah, you caught me. Actually didn't look at the precip departures. Got so hung up on the 500's and following the torch in the arctic that I never even looked at them. Glancing over them now and December is probably indicative of systems running to our west and though the 500's are pretty zonal it does have the hints of troughing setting up in the west which would support that idea. Jan's precip departures look promising and its distribution would possibly suggest the threat of Miller A's? Considering that it is primo climo for cold it might not matter as much if the pv is farther north then desirable and the cold with it . Feb though I am not so sure the neg departures are result of suppression when you see the pv located so far to the north. Think the positive anomalies to our south are more a function of an active southern jet especially when I see + departures in southern Cali/Arizona into northern Baja. When I also see + precip anomalies just north of Maine I think the Cansips may be suggesting we see southern systems run off the SE coast and then turn up with the -Nao in place. Unfortunately it looks to favor a more eastern solution with that run up the coast so we are seeing the NorEaster's impacts much farther to the north bypassing our region. This would probably suggest that the Cansips favors an eastern based -NAO.

Weak ninos hit in Jan much of the time.

[Maestrobjwa]

9 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

LOL. Nah, you caught me. Actually didn't look at the precip departures. Got so hung up on the 500's and following the torch in the arctic that I never even looked at them. Glancing over them now and December is probably indicative of systems running to our west and though the 500's are pretty zonal it does have the hints of troughing setting up in the west which would support that idea. Jan's precip departures look promising and its distribution would possibly suggest the threat of Miller A's? Considering that it is primo climo for cold it might not matter as much if the pv is farther north then desirable and the cold with it . Feb though I am not so sure the neg departures are result of suppression when you see the pv located so far to the north. Think the positive anomalies to our south are more a function of an active southern jet especially when I see + departures in southern Cali/Arizona into northern Baja. When I also see + precip anomalies just north of Maine I think the Cansips may be suggesting we see southern systems run off the SE coast and then turn up with the -Nao in place. Unfortunately it looks to favor a more eastern solution with that run up the coast so we are seeing the NorEaster's impacts much farther to the north bypassing our region. This would probably suggest that the Cansips favors an eastern based -NAO.

Sounds too much like last winter...lol So instead of Nina driving that effect, it would be an east-based NAO?

[frd]

On 9/30/2018 at 12:58 AM, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

I was thinking the same thing about the 3.50-5 sweet spot! My question is how on Earth did 1977-78 1976-77 have such a high anomaly!

Interesting how things have flipped in terms of rainfall. Looks dry except for scattered storms  later today ad then a record High Pressure ridge next week building oover the Eastern States. I look for very warm and dry weather. Funny the SOI continues to plummet yet temps here well above normal.  I guess the second part of the month could turn out wetter as the EPS shows a pattern change after mid month.  

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

1 hour ago, frd said:

Interesting how things have flipped in terms of rainfall. Looks dry except for scattered storms  later today ad then a record High Pressure ridge next week building oover the Eastern States. I look for very warm and dry weather. Funy the SOI continues to plummet yet temps here well above normal.  I guess the second part of the month could turn out wetter as the EPS shows a pattern change after mid month.  

Then my next step is to see when in October the precipitable water values were high.

eta: not much to see here

eta eta: not many warm Septembers for weak modoki ninos.  2004-05 is the only weak modoki nino +T Sep

[frd]

5 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Then my next step is to see when in October the precipitable water values were high.

Yeah that might be interesting, you have to think though based on the repeating pattern this year moisture wil return. 

A lot of rain that was recorded this past summer was from the battles of fronts coming South and then stalling out - due to the very strong WAR, also some winter like systems as well I think.

Wonder what will cause the next wetter cycle .....maybe Tropical by mid-month.  Should be interestig to see how things progress.   

 

 

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

The closest sstas for mid - late September is 2004...slightly concerning

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

The closest sstas for mid - late September is 2004...slightly concerning

2004-05 wasn't that bad. After a bad start mid January on had several 3"+ snowfall events across the region with a few healthy clippers mixed in. We just missed a bigger storm a couple times too. But it certainly wasn't a dud. If anything it was the rare example of a median "average" snowfall winter. I wouldn't cry if we get a somewhat similar year.