Winter 2018-19 Is Coming

[showmethesnow]

5 hours ago, GramaxRefugee said:

I sure remember the 10/1079 snow, and it was the first game of the Orioles/Pirates World Series.

Os dominated first 3 and then fell apart to lose in 7. The unhittable Kent Tekulve, Pirates reliever. (Not sure I spelled that right. Pronounced tee-KUL-vee)

Remember the TV guy (possibly Vin Scully) joking that he looked outside in the morning and went downstairs to buy a paper to make sure this was really Baltimore. 

Lived and died over the Orioles back then so that series was a heat-breaker for me. Hated that song 'We are Family' ever since.

 

6 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

Here's a crude Md  accumulation map from 10/79  iac. Not sure exact source .

 

 

 

My memory of a 3 to 4 inch snow was pretty spot on then with what looks to be 3.5 up in the OM and Reisterstown region on that map. Guess I am not as senile as I thought. 

[poolz1]

Hoping this is just a blip in 1+2.  I know this region can be volatile but this is a pretty good spike.

[frd]

34 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Hoping this is just a blip in 1+2.  I know this region can be volatile but this is a pretty good spike.

That is a huge spike up,  but it may very well may trend down in a few weeks. Your right of all the areas this one is very volatile. 

Meanwhile the  big negative SOI burst continues. Nice to see that at this point . The SST profile in the SW Pacific is very interesting.   

 

 

[poolz1]

1 minute ago, frd said:

That is a huge spike up,  but it may very well may trend down in a few weeks. Your right of all the areas this one is very volatile. 

Meanwhile the  big negative SOI burst continues. Nice to see that at this point . The SST profile in the SW Pacific is very interesting.   

 

 

Absolutely...There is no data out there to suggest that 1+2 stays warm for any extended period of time (or, warmer than 3.4).  Really nothing to dislike about the SST in PAC except for my cherrypicked graph there..lol  I'm just practicing my normal handwringing before winter arrives. 

The cold water west of Australia is going to have a real hard time reversing anytime soon which should continue the SOI crash and the damage should be done by the time we head into winter.

[frd]

34 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Absolutely...There is no data out there to suggest that 1+2 stays warm for any extended period of time (or, warmer than 3.4).  Really nothing to dislike about the SST in PAC except for my cherrypicked graph there..lol  I'm just practicing my normal handwringing before winter arrives. 

The cold water west of Australia is going to have a real hard time reversing anytime soon which should continue the SOI crash and the damage should be done by the time we head into winter.

All true :-) 

Also , the Euro and the Aussie MJO models are depicting a move into phases 1 and 2 down later in October.  The Plains looked like they will be locked into colder weather soon and lasting a while. At least the progression looks good by the models.

I guess the next things to watch will be the NE Pac and the PDO, the extent of the developing Modaki El Nino, and looking at the strat and patterns up above, like the QBO , solar, and hints at the strength of the PV.    

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

 

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

I did something similar last year for nina...fwiw

El Ninos (DCA)
Winter	Modoki	Winter Snow	+/- Winter Snow	Winter NAO	Nov Temp	Dec Temp	Nov NAO	Dec NAO
1986-87	Y	31.1"	+	N	-	+	+	+
1991-92	Y	6.6"	-	+	-	+	+	+
1994-95	Y	10.1"	-	+	+	+	N	+
2002-03	Y	40.4"	+	N	-	-	-	N
2004-05	Y	12.5"	-	N	+	N	N	+
2009-10	Y	46"	+	-	+	-	+	-

[frd]

38 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

I did something similar last year for nina...fwiw

El Ninos (DCA)
Winter	Modoki	Winter Snow	+/- Winter Snow	Winter NAO	Nov Temp	Dec Temp	Nov NAO	Dec NAO
1986-87	Y	31.1"	+	N	-	+	+	+
1991-92	Y	6.6"	-	+	-	+	+	+
1994-95	Y	10.1"	-	+	+	+	N	+
2002-03	Y	40.4"	+	N	-	-	-	N
2004-05	Y	12.5"	-	N	+	N	N	+
2009-10	Y	46"	+	-	+	-	+	-

I thought 05 / 06 was a very very weak Modaki like .33.  Do you know if that is true but what happened I think is that as the season progressed the warmer Pac SSts shifted East. 

 

 

[frd]

3 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

That was nina.

 

Ah, OK,  Ii was thinking of 2006 - 07 winter .  I also came across this good summary as well , link below .  

Per Ray, ( aka Benchmark via the New England Forum ) " First of all, while it was technically a modoki el nino, it only registered about a DM mean modoki reading +.33 on the scale, which is somewhat lower than where this event is projected to verify at near +.50. " 

  http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2018/09/weak-modoki-el-nino-imminent.html

 

 

 

 

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

1 minute ago, frd said:

 

Ah, OK,  Ii was thinking of 2006 - 07 winter .  I also came across this good summary as well , link below .  

Per Ray, ( aka Benchmark via the New England Forum ) " First of all, while it was technically a modoki el nino, it only registered about a DM mean modoki reading +.33 on the scale, which is somewhat lower than where this event is projected to verify at near +.50. " 

  http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2018/09/weak-modoki-el-nino-imminent.html

 

 

 

 

I was wondering!  2007 is debatable for sure.

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

The sunspot numbers look promising.

[mattie g]

7 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

The sunspot numbers look promising.

Long-term trends have me thinking that the sun will stop producing sunspots in the next 20-30 years, leading to quite a few good winters in these parts. Then the rubber band will snap back and the sun will explode in hellish fury that sends out flares large enough to envelop the earth. Nobody will experience good winters after that.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Long-term trends have me thinking that the sun will stop producing sunspots in the next 20-30 years, leading to quite a few good winters in these parts. Then the rubber band will snap back and the sun will explode in hellish fury that sends out flares large enough to envelop the earth. No more good winters after that.

From what I have read, solar minimum will be reached by mid 2019...which bodes well for this season.

[frd]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

From what I have read, solar minimum will be reached by mid 2019...which bodes well for this season.

Great news <   And , so far 14 days in a row with no sunspots.

With the later minimum next summer might be cooler as well ........................ ha ha I wish . 

 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

From what I have read, solar minimum will be reached by mid 2019...which bodes well for this season.

Now hang on...Do we usually benefit during the winter just before the minimum or just after? (Which side were we on in 09-10 and 95-96, for example?) I looked at a chart recently and I couldn't tell if the most recent minimum fell in 08 or 09 (of course winter 08-09 wasn't much, snow-wise, lol But then kaboom the next year! Same in 1994-95--not much then, but kaboom the next year!)

[40/70 Benchmark]

28 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Now hang on...Do we usually benefit during the winter just before the minimum or just after? (Which side were we on in 09-10 and 95-96, for example?) I looked at a chart recently and I couldn't tell if the most recent minimum fell in 08 or 09 (of course winter 08-09 wasn't much, snow-wise, lol But then kaboom the next year! Same in 1994-95--not much then, but kaboom the next year!)

I have stuggled with that same issue...and I am worried about that. But its tough to overlook a weak modoki el nino in close proximity to a solar minimum for wintery appeal. Additinally, if you read my blog post, I have began to discuss other factors, such as QBO, since ENSO seems signed, and sealed. 1994 is actually a good QBO match, but it was a moderate el nino occuring within a few years of the mount pinatubo eruption. I don't think its a coincidence that it took 5 years to sustain blocking after that kept the polar stratosphere in a virtual ice box.

Great post, and this is not a slam dunk call-

[psuhoffman]

8 hours ago, mattie g said:

Long-term trends have me thinking that the sun will stop producing sunspots in the next 20-30 years, leading to quite a few good winters in these parts. Then the rubber band will snap back and the sun will explode in hellish fury that sends out flares large enough to envelop the earth. Nobody will experience good winters after that.

Next little ice age coming!!!

[psuhoffman]

6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I have stuggled with that same issue...and I am worried about that. But its tough to overlook a weak modoki el nino in close proximity to a solar minimum for wintery appeal. Additinally, if you read my blog post, I have began to discuss other factors, such as QBO, since ENSO seems signed, and sealed. 1994 is actually a good QBO match, but it was a moderate el nino occuring within a few years of the mount pinatubo eruption. I don't think its a coincidence that it took 5 years to sustain blocking after that kept the polar stratosphere in a virtual ice box.

Great post, and this is not a slam dunk call-

I've yet to see any definitive answer to the solar minimum/snowfall correlation issue. Clearly there is a prevalence of high anomaly snowfall and cold years in the northeast/mid atl sometime around the solar minimums. But if that tends to come at a specific interval after the minimum or rather its tied in to lining up with other factors I don't think anyone really knows. 08/09 sucked for snowfall here but it was colder then many ninas and given how awful the other factors like enso were that year it's legit to wonder if the problems weren't related to the solar cycle but rather just other hostile factors overcoming the favorable solar. You can play that same game around the other minimums also. It does seem the big year has more often been the year aftera minimum but it's too small a sample to say if that is due solely to a correlation with the timing of the minimum or its the effect of the years where other factors lined up to allow a big year just randomly happened after solar minimums more often then during or just before.

My 2 cents, with no research and only educated guesses to back it up, is that there is some lag effect making it more likely after the minimum to get a boost to blocking and snowfall. There is some lag to most everything that impacts the atmosphere so that makes some sense. But there also is no logical reason that right before or during the minimum would be unfavorable to snowfall either. So just because next winter might be even more favorable to getting a solar related blockbuster winter doesn't mean this year can't also be good if the other factors line up the right way. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

38 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I've yet to see any definitive answer to the solar minimum/snowfall correlation issue. Clearly there is a prevalence of high anomaly snowfall and cold years in the northeast/mid atl sometime around the solar minimums. But if that tends to come at a specific interval after the minimum or rather its tied in to lining up with other factors I don't think anyone really knows. 08/09 sucked for snowfall here but it was colder then many ninas and given how awful the other factors like enso were that year it's legit to wonder if the problems weren't related to the solar cycle but rather just other hostile factors overcoming the favorable solar. You can play that same game around the other minimums also. It does seem the big year has more often been the year aftera minimum but it's too small a sample to say if that is due solely to a correlation with the timing of the minimum or its the effect of the years where other factors lined up to allow a big year just randomly happened after solar minimums more often then during or just before.

My 2 cents, with no research and only educated guesses to back it up, is that there is some lag effect making it more likely after the minimum to get a boost to blocking and snowfall. There is some lag to most everything that impacts the atmosphere so that makes some sense. But there also is no logical reason that right before or during the minimum would be unfavorable to snowfall either. So just because next winter might be even more favorable to getting a solar related blockbuster winter doesn't mean this year can't also be good if the other factors line up the right way. 

Not here.

Matter of perspective....that was a pretty cold winter, but not a lot of NAO help. It was a tamer and slightly displaced south version of 07-08.

[psuhoffman]

18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not here.

Matter of perspective....that was a pretty cold winter, but not a lot of NAO help. It was a tamer and slightly displaced south version of 07-08.

And 07/08 was equally god awful here too!!!  But 90% of ninas are awful here. That's a simple reality.  I did a lot of data digging last year and found that the only exceptions here are when we get an anomalous -nao during a nina. That from every Nina back to 1950 we have only had a significant (5"+) snowfall during a Nina with a significant -nao event. There wasn't a single fluke major snow event at D.C. without a -nao. While the nao does strongly correlate with snow here it's not that strong during neutral and nino years. During a Nina however it appears our only chance is a -nao. The last 2 winters hold true to that. While several storms found a way to affect other areas we only cashed in both years in March after the nao tanked the only time each winter. So perhaps the fact that 09 sucked here is more a function of the Nina combined with a +nao being too much to overcome regardless of the solar minimum. 

[Eskimo Joe]

 

[frd]

Interesting to say the least. 

 

 

[frd]

In regards tp the last post , here is Amy's post from the 25 th .

Honestly, I was not aware it was that weak last year during the Fall Season . I wonder if that had set the stage for the later season SSWE that took place.  I know and we had discusssed last Jan and Feb there are precursors to SSWE that lend some insights.

I also read that at this time , very early in the season, you can not really tell how the PV will progress down the road. I think we need to be deeper into the cold season to make educated forecasts and assumptions.

 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

 

Oh great...more data and wobbles to obsess over during a threat...lol (insert happy hour EURO!)

[psuhoffman]

32 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Oh great...more data and wobbles to obsess over during a threat...lol (insert happy hour EURO!)

Plus this means there won't be ANY downtime anymore. By the time the 12z euro and ens come out the 18z nam is running. There used to be a dead time though after the 18z and 6z gfs. Now there will always be a data point about to come out 24 hours a day during a threat. I'm pretty sure that will screw some people up lol. 

[WxUSAF]

Yes please 

 

 

[frd]

Canadian snow cover for a change of pace 

 

 

[frd]

Never saw this product before from the Euro.

I guess looking at it you can formulate all types of possible sensible weather outcomes like Ben did .  

 

[frd]

On 9/26/2018 at 1:16 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

From what I have read, solar minimum will be reached by mid 2019...which bodes well for this season.

I thought the left side bar on this site was interesting , as  to various previous year's total spotless days. I was focusing on 09 and 10 when i was looking . 

Seems based on the article as well we are continuing to move downward. 

Today is 15 in a row with no sun spots .   

[frd]

Continued weakness regarding the PV , of interest as well is the /Atlantic side .