Tropical Storm Chris

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

I think it could reach 120 knots at peak intensity, even in July

[Hazey]

Good call, what's the worst tropical storm you've seen up that way?

Juan 2003. Low end cat 2. About as high as I ever want to go through again if I have to. Doesn’t take as powerful a storm to do damage at this latitude because nothing is hurricane proof or hurricane seasoned. During Juan, trees were fully leafed still and had no chance. They just toppled like dominos. And this area had a lot of trees. Still does despite the blowdown.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

19 minutes ago, Hazey said:

Juan 2003. Low end cat 2. About as high as I ever want to go through again if I have to. Doesn’t take as powerful a storm to do damage at this latitude because nothing is hurricane proof or hurricane seasoned. During Juan, trees were fully leafed still and had no chance. They just toppled like dominos. And this area had a lot of trees. Still does despite the blowdown.

Hazy, Chris is getting that look, explosive happenings are occurring

[Coach McGuirk]

24 minutes ago, Hazey said:

Juan 2003. Low end cat 2. About as high as I ever want to go through again if I have to. Doesn’t take as powerful a storm to do damage at this latitude because nothing is hurricane proof or hurricane seasoned. During Juan, trees were fully leafed still and had no chance. They just toppled like dominos. And this area had a lot of trees. Still does despite the blowdown.

Quite the gut punch from Juan. 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Juan#/media/File:Juan_2003_track.png

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Morehead City, NC radar site is showing great radar imagery today of Chris's inner core convection and organization which has occurred today.  It is showing his inner core beginning to cut off and develop into a circular core with convection wrapping around the south side of the once opened inner core.  This will allow the core to strengthen and the hurricane hunters will likely find a much stronger hurricane in their next mission tonight.

[Amped]

1002mb bouy near the center.

 

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

5 minutes ago, Amped said:

1002mb bouy near the center.

 

Then the central pressure must be around 999mb like ADT shows

[Amped]

Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Then the central pressure must be around 999mb like ADT shows 

ADT has been too low all day pressure all day, but it seems reasonable now.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

6 minutes ago, Amped said:

ADT has been too low all day pressure all day, but it seems reasonable now.

yeah

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

You think it is around 999mb now?

[JWilliam9830]

At around 7:30 PM, you can start to see the outflow clouds. Looks like the dry air has let up some, although i do still see an intrusion on the southern part. I do believe TS Chris has strengthened to at least around 50 MPH, maybe 60. Will probably be a hurricane late tonight or tomorrow.

Edit: The 8 PM advisory is 50 MPH.

[Windspeed]

1002mb bouy near the center.

 

Honestly surprised at that 1002mb reading. That is a fairly steep drop from the next closest bouy (1016mb), which also isn't that much further away from the previous center fix. The LLC may be relocating again or is being pulled under the MLC in the variable surface flow. If that is the case, this could be an interesting night of intensification ahead.

 

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

1 minute ago, Windspeed said:

28 minutes ago, Amped said:

1002mb bouy near the center.
 

Honestly surprised at that 1003mb reading. That is a fairly steep drop from the next closest bouy (1016mb), which also isn't that much further away from the previous center fix. The LLC may be relocating again or is being pulled under the MLC in the variable surface flow. If that is the case, this could be an interesting night of intensification ahead.

Windspeed, that is 1002mb, which means the surface low is likely around 999mb

[Windspeed]

Windspeed, that is 1002mb, which means the surface low is likely around 999mb

Yes, that was sloppy typing. Already corrected. And ADT noted.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Just now, Windspeed said:

1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Windspeed, that is 1002mb, which means the surface low is likely around 999mb

Yes, that was sloppy typing. Already corrected. And ADT noted.

lol, convective showers developing to the northwest of Chris, likely impacting the coastline of NC in the future.  I like the NAM in this scenario, also, I know the NAM isn't really accurate with intensity in tropical cyclones, tending to overdo the intensity of tropical cyclones.  However, I think the conditions warrant a hurricane of that intensity.

[Windspeed]

lol, convective showers developing to the northwest of Chris, likely impacting the coastline of NC in the future.  I like the NAM in this scenario, also, I know the NAM isn't really accurate with intensity in tropical cyclones, tending to overdo the intensity of tropical cyclones.  However, I think the conditions warrant a hurricane of that intensity.

A good reason we should never rely on any NAM products. Not even going to bother mentioning its resolving of Chris. However, please ignore the mesoscale NAM products especially. Actually, all of NAM is just hot garbage when it comes to TC intensity and tracks as they don't handle strong warm cores very well. It’s not a TC model really isn't the best excuse but whether the blame is on how NCEP designed its downstream handling of feedback or pollution, beyond just poor initialization, its products depicting TCs always mauls itself with convective feedback of strong warm cores. Simply put, though you should never trust any single model product for TCs, forget the NAM.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

USAF Recon (Hurricane Hunters), showing Chris is stronger by 5mb since late this morning, and flight level and surface winds stronger on the west side than what the morning mission found in the entire storm.  Pressure is down to 1003.6mb

[Coach McGuirk]

This is an interesting storm.  Stalled off the coast. 

[Amped]

10 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Visible and IR presentation has definitely improved today, but I thought they’d find a stronger core on that first pass. We’ll see what happens as they sample the NE side. 

Agreed, has the presentation of a 990mb 65kt storm. Hard to believe we're seeing 40kt 1005mb readings.   Looks like the centers are aligned now so the next blowup in the core should be a lot more effective in dropping the pressure.

[yoda]

Tropical Storm Chris Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032018
1100 AM EDT Mon Jul 09 2018

A NOAA reconnaissance aircraft investigating Chris this morning has
found little change in the overall structure of the cyclone. The
peak 8000-ft wind measured was 60 kt to the south of the center
along with a 51-kt SFMR surface wind. The minimum pressure has also
remained steady at 999 mb during the entire mission which is still
ongoing. Although an eye-like feature has briefly appeared in
WSR-88D Doppler radar data from Morehead City and in satellite
imagery as well, the convection surrounding that feature has been
mostly shallow and ragged. Based on these data, the intensity
remains at 50 kt for this advisory.

Air Force and NOAA reconnaissance fixes the past several hours and
satellite fixes indicate that Chris has moved little. Steering
currents are forecast to remain weak for the next 24 hours or so,
resulting in continued slow movement. By 36 hours, however, a
shortwave trough is forecast to dig southeastward out of Canada and
into the northeastern U.S. and mid-Atlantic states, which should
help to eject the cyclone northeastward. By 48 hours and beyond, the
shortwave trough will help to amplify a deep-layer trough near the
U.S. east coast, causing Chris to accelerate northeastward toward
the Atlantic Canada region. The NHC model guidance continues to show
little cross-track differences, but fairly significant along-track
or speed differences. As a result, the official forecast track
remains close to the consensus track models.

A narrow band of dry mid-level air has wrapped all the way around
and into the inner-core region, which has caused some erosion of the
associated convection, along with some upwelling.  However, the
reconnaissance wind data indicated that Chris has a relatively small
radius of maximum winds (RMW) of 15 nmi to the south and about 25
nmi to the north. This well-defined inner-core wind field, coupled
with warm water and low vertical shear conditions, should enable the
cyclone to mix out the dry air later today and tonight, which will
allow for strengthening to begin. The intensification process should
be steady at a near-normal rate for the next 36 hours or so,
followed by gradual weakening in a few days as the waters beneath
Chris begin to cool and the wind shear increases from the southwest.
By 72 hours and beyond, Chris will be over much colder water (SSTs
less than 20 deg C) and within a high shear environment of 30 kt or
more, which will induce a rapid transition to a powerful
extratropical cyclone as the system approaches Newfoundland.  The
extratropical low is forecast to interact or merge with a strong
cold front by 96 hours when the cyclone is near Newfoundland, which
will enhance the extratropical transition process. The new intensity
forecast is similar to the previous advisory and shows Chris
reaching hurricane strength by Tuesday. Chris could reach a peak
intensity of 80 kt between the 36 and 48 hour time periods before
weakening begins shortly thereafter.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/1500Z 32.2N  74.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  10/0000Z 32.3N  74.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  10/1200Z 32.4N  74.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  11/0000Z 33.3N  73.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  11/1200Z 34.8N  70.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  12/1200Z 40.5N  64.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  13/1200Z 47.0N  55.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  14/1200Z 51.1N  41.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[JWilliam9830]

A little bit hard to see but we are starting to get a convective wrap around Chris. Will strengthen and better organize soon once it moves a little east via kicker. Dry air cutoff 

[Windspeed]

000
WTNT43 KNHC 092052
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Chris Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032018
500 PM EDT Mon Jul 09 2018

Satellite, Doppler radar, and Air Force reconnaissance aircraft data
this afternoon indicate that inner-core region of Chris has
improved in organization, and that the cyclone has strengthened
some. A peak 850-mb flight-level of 73 kt was measured in the
southwestern quadrant along with slightly rain-contaminated SFMR
surface winds of 53-59 kt. The central pressure has also decreased
to 997-996 mb. Based on these data, the intensity has been increased
to 60 kt for this advisory.

NOAA and Air Force Reserve reconnaissance fixes thus far today
indicate that Chris has essentially remained nearly stationary for
the past 9 hours. Steering should remain weak for the next 24 hours
or so due to the cyclone being trapped in a large break in the
subtropical ridge, thus little motion is expected.  However, by 36
hours and beyond, a deepening mid-latitude trough along the U.S.
Northeast and mid-Atlantic coasts is forecast to gradually lift out
Chris to the northeast, with more significant northeastward
acceleration occurring by 72 hours and beyond. Chris is expected to
move across the offshore waters of Atlantic Canada on days 4 and 5
as a powerful extratropical low, possibly passing over southeastern
Newfoundland around the 96-hour time period. The NHC model guidance
continues to show fairly significant along-track or speed
differences. As a result, the official forecast track remains close
to the consensus track models TVCN, HCCA, and FSSE.

A band of very dry mid-level air with humidity values less than 45
percent has completely encircled Chris, and the cyclone is beginning
to take on the appearance of an annular formed hurricane with a new
15-nmi-diameter, cloud-filled eye having within the central
convective cloud mass during the past couple of hours. The
well-defined inner-core wind field, in conjunction with the with
SSTs near 28 deg C and a low vertical wind shear regime, should act
to maintain inner-core convective development. The result should be
gradual strengthening over the next day or, with Chris becoming a
hurricane later tonight or Tuesday morning and reaching a peak
intensity of 80 kt by 36 hours. Gradual weakening should commence by
48 hours when the cyclone will be moving over cooler water and
southwesterly wind shear begins to increase to near 20 kt. By 72
hours and beyond, Chris will be over SSTs less than 20 deg C and
within stronger shear environment ahead of an approaching deep-layer
trough, which will induce a rapid transition to a powerful
extratropical cyclone before the system approaches Newfoundland in
about 96 hours. The extratropical low is forecast to merge with a
cold front in 96-120 hours, which should enhance the extratropical
transition process. The new NHC intensity forecast is just an update
of previous two advisories, and similar to the intensity model FSSE,
which is sightly higher than the HCCA and IVCN intensity consensus
models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/2100Z 32.2N  74.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  10/0600Z 32.3N  74.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  10/1800Z 32.8N  73.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  11/0600Z 34.0N  71.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  11/1800Z 36.1N  69.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  12/1800Z 42.2N  61.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  13/1800Z 48.3N  50.7W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  14/1800Z 52.0N  35.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Stewart

 

[Coach McGuirk]

NAM bombs Chris out down to 935 MB by tomorrow afternoon.  

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

 Becaise Chris is fairly small we are seeing very little swell generation so far. As gee strengthens and the wind field expends tomorrow we should start to see swells increas on the east coast. The  relatively close proximity to the coast means there is little wave decay

[Amped]

20 minutes ago, Coach McGuirk said:

NAM bombs Chris out down to 935 MB by tomorrow afternoon.  

3km NAM does that with every TC that dares enter it's domain. It's a known bug, and if it were up to me there'd be a pinned warning about it at the top of this forum.

[Amped]

Slow but steady intensification continues. 

Seems similar in appearance to Ophelia last year. I don't think it will make CAT3 but not out of the question, especially if it tracks further east and stays over the warmer SSTS.

[Windspeed]

Slow but steady intensification continues.  Seems similar in appearance to Ophelia last year. I don't think it will make CAT3 but not out of the question, especially if it tracks further east and stays over the warmer SSTS.

 

This was pretty much expected through current time. Shear has relaxed. Should be less mid-level stable air getting forced into what appears to be a developing core. This evening through tomorrow should be good steady identification, perhaps even a burst of significant intensification on Tuesday. I don't know if this will ever have the ingredients to experience RI though. But tomorrow may very well surprise once the SW steering flow begins to develop. Upwelling isn't so much of an issue simply due to the fact that the 26° isotherm is plenty deep enough at that location, enhanced by the Gulf Stream, and the upper atmosphere is a bit cooler than a typical tropical environment setup to help with tropospheric instability and convection. Also there should be some baroclinic support as the mid-level trough digs in on Wed. Though how much is a question. I suspect the window will close rather quickly on Wed though with increasing shear and colder SSTs. So the next 36-48 hrs is feast and afterwards, famine.

 

 

[Coach McGuirk]

1 hour ago, Amped said:

3km NAM does that with every TC that dares enter it's domain. It's a known bug, and if it were up to me there'd be a pinned warning about it at the top of this forum.

Okay, was just saying...

[JWilliam9830]

Convection continues to wrap around, gradually cutting off dry air feed. On the southern side, we see the convection being sustained as it wraps. 

Approximately -70 C cloud tops. Image from 7:45 local time.

[JWilliam9830]

Chris finally being ejected, and explosive convection is occurring

Chris is organizing nicely