hurricaneman Posted September 6, 2018 Share Posted September 6, 2018 Looks like A big hit for southern New England on the 12zGFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 6, 2018 Share Posted September 6, 2018 @Damage In Tolland will be pleased with this GFS run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 6, 2018 Share Posted September 6, 2018 I would think the flooding would be more of a concern than the wind verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 6, 2018 Share Posted September 6, 2018 that's pretty rainy here on that run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 6, 2018 Share Posted September 6, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted September 6, 2018 Share Posted September 6, 2018 Growing signal for an EC hit/graze. Euro more south, gfs was ots but moving closer to euro-like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 6, 2018 Share Posted September 6, 2018 Even if this comes to nothing (probably), sure beats two months of talking heat and dews. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted September 6, 2018 Share Posted September 6, 2018 2 hours ago, correnjim1 said: the storm is in fantasy land and people are already arguing about damage potential lol I wasn't discussing Florence specifically but there is no doubt that a direct hit from a cat 3/4 would devastate the area. Research the 1938 hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diggiebot Posted September 6, 2018 Share Posted September 6, 2018 9 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: And it’s not even over yet in eastern areas....although the majority of precipitation ends up on the right side which doesn’t really fit for hurricanes at our latitude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 6, 2018 Share Posted September 6, 2018 Just now, Diggiebot said: And it’s not even over yet in eastern areas....although the majority of precipitation ends up on the right side which doesn’t really fit for hurricanes at our latitude in this case it coming sort of due north, not inland, but QPF so far out is "fantasy land" and I'm talking about #florence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 6, 2018 Share Posted September 6, 2018 Has Edouard written all over it. Don't get sucked in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 6, 2018 Share Posted September 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Has Edouard written all over it. Don't get sucked in. yeah, but it's sort of a primer for Winter.. ready to jump back in, need to sharpen the skills, blah blah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 6, 2018 Share Posted September 6, 2018 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Has Edouard written all over it. Don't get sucked in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 6, 2018 Share Posted September 6, 2018 GFS nails us pretty.good almost out of fantasy range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 6, 2018 Share Posted September 6, 2018 1 minute ago, ineedsnow said: GFS nails us pretty.good almost out of fantasy range 72 hours is fantasy range with hurricanes IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 6, 2018 Share Posted September 6, 2018 22 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: yeah, but it's sort of a primer for Winter.. ready to jump back in, need to sharpen the skills, blah blah Yea. I started kind of looking at it late last night. The latitude that it has gained so far east has me spooked. I feel like, if anything, it will get shunted into the Carolinas by the building ridge, otherwise it will do the 'ole slide job under LI eventually. Just a hunch....haven't looked at much. Anything is possible, I guess... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 6, 2018 Share Posted September 6, 2018 18 minutes ago, Hoth said: 72 hours is fantasy range with hurricanes IMO. For a SNE hit? 24 hours...and I mean that. Time and time again, models underestimate the westerlies in the mid latitudes even at short lead times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 6, 2018 Share Posted September 6, 2018 Its like akin to a blizzard in Atlanta....focus on why it won't happen, until you are left with virtually no choice but to strongly favor the alternative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 6, 2018 Share Posted September 6, 2018 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: For a SNE hit? 24 hours...and I mean that. Time and time again, models underestimate the westerlies in the mid latitudes even at short lead times. True. Heck, Irene was supposed to slam into LI as a cat 2 about 36 hours out. Next thing you know it's a desiccated shell running over the OBX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 6, 2018 Share Posted September 6, 2018 It would have my attention if i was DC south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 6, 2018 Share Posted September 6, 2018 32 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Has Edouard written all over it. Don't get sucked in. What was the storm that tracked east of hatteras and then stalled and took a hard turn right? Edouard is a decent comp but I'm favoring this storm I can't remember the name of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 6, 2018 Share Posted September 6, 2018 1 minute ago, sbos_wx said: What was the storm that tracked east of hatteras and then stalled and took a hard turn right? Edouard is a decent comp but I'm favoring this storm I can't remember the name of. Felix....1995. Man, that one pissed me off...spent all summer tracking that terd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 6, 2018 Share Posted September 6, 2018 8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea. I started kind of looking at it late last night. The latitude that it has gained so far east has me spooked. I feel like, if anything, it will get shunted into the Carolinas by the building ridge, otherwise it will do the 'ole slide job under LI eventually. Just a hunch....haven't looked at much. Anything is possible, I guess... yeap, i'm with the carolina train, that blocking looks pretty strong.. just read recon flights will start Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 6, 2018 Share Posted September 6, 2018 Emily 93 too. That ridge is anomalous so although SNE impact not likely, it’s not a non-zero thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 6, 2018 Share Posted September 6, 2018 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Felix....1995. Yup, that is what I would favor. That building WAR will force Florence to track close to the coast. The west track makes no sense. Steering will turn her north after she hits the western fringe of the HP. It's all about the strength of blocking over Canada. Would sort of look something funky like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted September 6, 2018 Share Posted September 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, Hoth said: True. Heck, Irene was supposed to slam into LI as a cat 2 about 36 hours out. Next thing you know it's a desiccated shell running over the OBX. And Irene still caused hundreds of millions of dollars of damage in NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 6, 2018 Share Posted September 6, 2018 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Emily 93 too. That ridge is anomalous so although SNE impact not likely, it’s not a non-zero thing. Yea, it can happen...if it looks ominous this weekend, make preliminary preps, but don't sweat until you see the white of her eye.. I think the rapid weakening maybe bad news down the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 6, 2018 Share Posted September 6, 2018 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Emily 93 too. That ridge is anomalous so although SNE impact not likely, it’s not a non-zero thing. Everything about this is anomalous. But then again, the grand scheme of things, imagine the incredible amount of storms and untracked hurricanes before science and technology. Anyway... This is another similar type of weird track we might see. Similar to Felix. Great comparison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 6, 2018 Share Posted September 6, 2018 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, it can happen...if it looks ominous this weekend, make preliminary preps, but don't sweat until you see the white of her eye.. I think the rapid weakening maybe bad news down the coast. Shocked to see how favorable the environment is in the next few days following this shear. It's basically got all the space in the world to regain strength afterwards and record warm SST's in front of her. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 6, 2018 Share Posted September 6, 2018 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Felix....1995. Man, that one pissed me off...spent all summer tracking that terd. My first taste of bitter tropical failure. I remember being so excited that we were going to get a hurricane (I was 10), and then...nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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