SNE Tropical Weather Discussion - Hurricanes

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

I am beginning this thread for the threats that New England will see in the future and right now 96L invest is showing signs of development with an increase in convergence in the surface layer, along with the organization of the surface flow around the low.  Convection remains disorganized, but the potential for a hurricane to just miss New England looks like a possibility.  Forecast depends upon the strength of the Bermuda High.

[Typhoon Tip]

You should remove the suffix "- Hurricanes" from that title, James..

Those that engage in the hobby of weather-related social media, they get it already?  As in ...yeah, we know ... Hurricanes, they are part of the tropics. 

When you put that in the title, it thus 'sounds' a little less like one seeking a tropical -based discussion source, and more like one seeking Hurricane and anecdotes - is story telling and drama what you're really after?  I mean, fact of the matter is Hurricanes are in fact NOT very synonymous with New England ... they just are once in a while ...usually, a long while, much to the chagrin of the hype - most are aware of this latter facet as well, so it's an odd pairing for your thread.

I'm just offering that you might attract more earthly rooted analysis and hypothesis/contribution ...get that going, if you didn't suffix titles with "cosmic ray burst!' at the end of them. 

[MJO812]

The waters are starting to get very warm just off the coast especially in the south east.

 

Something to watch

[CoastalWx]

ZZZZzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

[rimetree]

Saw an anecdote about Hurricane Fabio in the E. Pacific becoming the earliest named F-storm. It beat out a storm from 1984 and 1985, which was the Gloria year. I know every year is different but wonder if there's any correlation to high activity in the E. Pacific and east coast/NE impacting storms later in the season.

[hurricaneman]

Honestly eastern New England need to watch Chris as the models are trending closer and would be a hurricane as it passes by but the UKMET is showing SE Massachusetts landfall as a hurricane

[weatherwiz]

I’ve been getting a huge laugh at reading tweets about how people in New England needed to “watch” Chris  

[HoarfrostHubb]

3 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

I’ve been getting a huge laugh at reading tweets about how people in New England needed to “watch” Chris  

There are some pretty bizarre folks on some of the traditional social media weather pages

[weatherwiz]

14 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

There are some pretty bizarre folks on some of the traditional social media weather pages

Twitter can be a big riot. I get a kick out of the "models could still trend west" or "I think models will trend west" posts...even know there is no sound meteorological reasoning for why. Its more wishcasting than anything. I mean with Chris...we only have a stalled boundary off the coast and then another frontal boundary pushing off the cast but let's disregard that and still think Chris could have came west. 

[SlantStickers Anonymous]

80th anniversary of the Long Island Express this year. 

[ice1972]

14 hours ago, PeabodyFlood said:

80th anniversary of the Long Island Express this year. 

Fukin bring that ****.....zippity zip zip lol

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

The next 10-14 days seems ominous for the East Coast chances for a hurricane strike.  The A/B high redevelops from central position to a Bermuda position pushing any disturbances that develop east of the Caribbean into the Caribbean Sea or into the Florida and Gulf coast.

[yoda]

Going to be kind of hard for a hurricane to develop when NHC has no signs of tropical activity for the next 5 days

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

5 minutes ago, yoda said:

Going to be kind of hard for a hurricane to develop when NHC has no signs of tropical activity for the next 5 days

I'm just saying if they develop, I am not saying they will

[HoarfrostHubb]

Wake me in September

[tamarack]

2 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Wake me in September

Yawn...   Have not experienced even a 30-mph gust from a TC since Floyd.  Irene was wet but the wind was gone before she got this far north.

[Hoth]

3 hours ago, tamarack said:

Yawn...   Have not experienced even a 30-mph gust from a TC since Floyd.  Irene was wet but the wind was gone before she got this far north.

I have not experienced a "real" hurricane in my lifetime. I was a toddler during Gloria, in northern VT for Bob, Irene jogged left into NC and Sandy was pretty meh in Boston. I only remember the rain from Floyd. One of these years we'll get a bonafide smack, but who knows when. NE can go a century or more without a significant cane. Of course, given the cost in lives, property and societal disruption a major strike would entail, I'm kind of okay with that long return period.

[tamarack]

15 hours ago, Hoth said:

I have not experienced a "real" hurricane in my lifetime. I was a toddler during Gloria, in northern VT for Bob, Irene jogged left into NC and Sandy was pretty meh in Boston. I only remember the rain from Floyd. One of these years we'll get a bonafide smack, but who knows when. NE can go a century or more without a significant cane. Of course, given the cost in lives, property and societal disruption a major strike would entail, I'm kind of okay with that long return period.

Nor have I - doubt I've experienced hurricane force in gusts, though the top 2 events on the list below may have gusted to 70.  I still can't decide which was the stronger.  1950 tipped more trees, but the oaks had a few more old leaves hanging in late Nov than late Dec, plus the ground was partially frozen for the 1962 winds.

1a, Nov 1950 Apps gale
1b, Dec 31, 1962 - backside NW winds from the Bangor blizzard
3,  Oct 1954  Hazel
4,  Aug 1991  Bob
5,  Aug 1971  Doria
6,  April 1982 blizzard
For #4 we lived in S.Maine, #6 in N.Maine, the others in NNJ.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Its going to take a lot for me to get pumped about a tropical system as far as potential impact in our area goes...people jump waaaay to prematurely and look for reasons for it to happen.

The prudent course of action is to seek out ways for it to not happen.....in this region, its going to have to be pretty late in the game under exotically unique circimstances to not find one.

[weatherwiz]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its going to take a lot for me to get pumped about a tropical system as far as potential impact in our area goes...people jump waaaay to prematurely and look for reasons for it to happen.

The prudent course of action is to seek out ways for it to not happen.....in this region, its going to have to be pretty late in the game under exotically unique circimstances to not find one.

EXACTLY!!!!! This needs to be printed on a tee-shirt. The same can be said as well for just about any weather event. 

There are so many factors to consider when talking about a potential impact from a tropical system around our parts...that's why our average is like every 10 years for a hit or a landfall (believe that's hurricane...not sure if that includes tropical storm). 

Anyways there is more to it than just ridging or high pressure in the western Atlantic...the atmospheric pattern configuration across the United States is critical as well...especially with the timing and amplitude of any trough which may be pushing into or digging into the east. Then you have to worry about frontal boundaries moving through. 

[weatherwiz]

43 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

That's why I love tracking tropical. Aside from the still evolving field of intensity prediction, watching and analyzing how upper level patterns and other features influence steering is absolutely fascinating. I think it's the only wx category that I will generally care about even if there's no real chance of production IMBY. 

Much more likely to get action chasing tropical than waiting for it to make a visit around here. That said, I'm probably more likely to get a hit here than in DC  

Totally agree here. If you're able to have an understanding of how this sort of stuff influences tropical (development, intensity, track, etc) you have a very strong likelihood of "beating" forecast models. Do you remember a couple years back there was this tropical system off the coast of FL and even 3 days out most models and the spaghetti plot tracks all showed a hit into New England? I kept telling people at school I didn't think that had any chance of verifying just because the atmospheric pattern did not support a track into New England or up the coast. The system ended up doing a fuwijara (or whatever it's called) off the coast of FL lmao. 

[weatherwiz]

8 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I think I remember. Was that Joaquin? We've had a number of tropical systems in the last few years that were forecast to strike the EC only to get kicked OTS. Even in the dull years. 

yeah that night have been the one...or was it the one that began with an H? Hermine or something

[Hoth]

11 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

yeah that night have been the one...or was it the one that began with an H? Hermine or something

That was the one. I actually got tropical storm force wind out on the island for a few hours with that one. The roar in the trees was pretty impressive for a depleted she'll of a storm. Made me glad to be in a house that survived every cane from '38 to the present. 

[weatherwiz]

9 minutes ago, Hoth said:

That was the one. I actually got tropical storm force wind out on the island for a few hours with that one. The roar in the trees was pretty impressive for a depleted she'll of a storm. Made me glad to be in a house that survived every cane from '38 to the present. 

That did eventually make a move up the coast right...but like several days later? It actually ended up making like a decent jog west too at the last second lol. It sort of rode up along the boundary as it stalled off the coast...?

[StormSurge]

2 hours ago, Hoth said:

That was the one. I actually got tropical storm force wind out on the island for a few hours with that one. The roar in the trees was pretty impressive for a depleted she'll of a storm. Made me glad to be in a house that survived every cane from '38 to the present. 

I'm always jonesing for some tropical action thanks to Gloria & Bob getting me hooked. But now that I'm on Fishers, my anticipation level is sky-high. I think I'm prepared for the inevitable disappointment but it will still sting.

[Hoth]

2 hours ago, StormSurge said:

I'm always jonesing for some tropical action thanks to Gloria & Bob getting me hooked. But now that I'm on Fishers, my anticipation level is sky-high. I think I'm prepared for the inevitable disappointment but it will still sting.

Pretty sure FI had the highest sustained wind reading anywhere in '38...maybe Blue Hills beat it but not sure. There's a funny anecdote, perhaps apocryphal, that the Browns' butler entered their living room over by Clay Pt. during the height of the storm and said, "Madam, tea is served and, oh yes, the roof is blowing off." Interestingly, that hurricane planted a lot of the trees we enjoy today, after the September 1815 major cane completely deforested the island for a century plus. When my great great grandparents starting coming out here around 1900 it was basically meadows from one end to the other. The only tropical system I've personally seen here, aside from Hermine's remnants, was TS Bertha in '96. I remember there was even a ballsy dude windsurfing at about 60mph in that thing! Otherwise, perhaps the most eye-popping sign of the power of these systems was when Hurricane Bill went by. I've never seen waves that large before or since. We were having a bonfire on our beach that night on the sheltered north side of the island when a rogue wave came out of nowhere and swamped the beach, fire and all, and sent us fleeing up onto the rocks. I realized that the swell must have arrived and hopped in my car to pop over to Isabella, Chocomount and the Beach Club to see what was happening. It did not disappoint. The lower part of the path on Isabella was waterlogged and after each heavy thud of crashing waves you would hear the retreating water sucking all the rocks off the beach. There was water in the parking lot at Chocomount, which I had never seen, and at the Beach Club we stood on top of a manmade sand berm, erected to protect the clubhouse, and watched the waves roaring in. I can still see in my mind's eye the moonlit crests and dark barrels and occasional flashes of lightning on the southern horizon from the outer bands. It's difficult say how tall the waves were, as it was after dark, but they were assuredly enormous by our standards. 

[StormSurge]

Pierce’s talk on ‘38 was fascinating (all FI history fascinates me). Seeing the high water mark on the Parade Grounds, almost up to the movie theater & all the trees down in Whistler was crazy. 

My uncle was the lifeguard at the Big Club beach when Carol hit. He lost everything when the beach house washed away. 

Your Bill story is wild. A direct hit or even a glancing blow will be a wild ride. (At this point, I’ll be happy with a steady downpour.)

[40/70 Benchmark]

20 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

That's why I love tracking tropical. Aside from the still evolving field of intensity prediction, watching and analyzing how upper level patterns and other features influence steering is absolutely fascinating. I think it's the only wx category that I will generally care about even if there's no real chance of production IMBY. 

Much more likely to get action chasing tropical than waiting for it to make a visit around here. That said, I'm probably more likely to get a hit here than in DC  

This.... I say it all the time...Steve kills me for being IMBY, which I am, but not with hurricances.

Tornadoes, snow, thunder.....I don't care if its not IMBY...but canes are different....as long as its in the US.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

The Sea Surface temperatures at 40N/70W have increased substantially since the beginning of July, about a 10F increase, just in the last month, with temperatures now climbing to 73F at the buoy at the latitude/longitude point known as the benchmark.  Sea Surface temperatures as far north as NJ and Long Island can support a hurricane, with Nantucket Sound almost as high as 77F.  I think we can sustain a major hurricane landfall if the pattern allows it this year, but the difference is a strong shear environment exists in the Atlantic Ocean at this time, as the Eastern Pacific Ocean basin remains quite active.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

3 hours ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

The Sea Surface temperatures at 40N/70W have increased substantially since the beginning of July, about a 10F increase, just in the last month, with temperatures now climbing to 73F at the buoy at the latitude/longitude point known as the benchmark.  Sea Surface temperatures as far north as NJ and Long Island can support a hurricane, with Nantucket Sound almost as high as 77F.  I think we can sustain a major hurricane landfall if the pattern allows it this year, but the difference is a strong shear environment exists in the Atlantic Ocean at this time, as the Eastern Pacific Ocean basin remains quite active.

The buoys off Long Island have been hitting 80 each afternoon. Unfortunately if you like canes in the north east that’s just surface water. So it will quickly mix with cooler water with the arrival of forerunner swells. 

Our best bet at a major has and always will be a track just like 38. A big Cape Verde cat 4/5 NE of the Bahamas that gets sling shot straight north between two highs so weakening is minimal. You need that straight north track to avoid the OBX. Any land interaction will cause the core to fall apart. You really need that intact core to produce major winds as far north as us. The strongest winds during 38 on LI only lasted about 30 minutes so that’s right in line with what you would expect with an intact core.