Long Range Winter Speculation 2018/19

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, jaxjagman said:

Odd,he removed it

The detailed(long version) is up and running.

 

[jaxjagman]

15 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

The detailed(long version) is up and running.

 

Thank you

[Carvers Gap]

On 11/3/2018 at 3:35 PM, jaxjagman said:

Odd,he removed it

No idea what happened.  He said that he had a short version and a long version.  I will go check on FB and see if he noted the issue.

**Update**...think he had to correct a date?  Anyway the link in my post above should work now...

[BlunderStorm]

7 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

No idea what happened.  He said that he had a short version and a long version.  I will go check on FB and see if he noted the issue.

Him forecasting 200% seasonal snowfall in the eastern valley is a bold prediction. I mean I understand the teleconnections are seemingly very favorable but 200% just seems too good to be true. I have no holes to poke into his argument, it's just the result. For goodness sake even NOAA's seasonal outlook is EC and that's saying something.

[AMZ8990]

8 hours ago, BlunderStorm said:

Him forecasting 200% seasonal snowfall in the eastern valley is a bold prediction. I mean I understand the teleconnections are seemingly very favorable but 200% just seems too good to be true. I have no holes to poke into his argument, it's just the result. For goodness sake even NOAA's seasonal outlook is EC and that's saying something.

  If it comes to fruition then I feel bad for all our employers cause we all would be spending a lot more time on tropical tidbits and American WX than work. lol

[Carvers Gap]

13 hours ago, BlunderStorm said:

Him forecasting 200% seasonal snowfall in the eastern valley is a bold prediction. I mean I understand the teleconnections are seemingly very favorable but 200% just seems too good to be true. I have no holes to poke into his argument, it's just the result. For goodness sake even NOAA's seasonal outlook is EC and that's saying something.

He is very accurate for the MA.  Snowfall, as you and I know, is so difficult to nail down regarding an entire season.  Our area can be wicked tough to forecast for due to geography.  I tend to listen to the mets and hobby folks here on AmWx the most.  The longer that I have done this, the more value that I see in pattern recognition.  If we get the pattern that we want, then the next step is all about timing.  We have some good things on our side this winter...time will tell if we get to cash in.  I will add that 200% for some areas can be achieved with one good storm.  Our areas have higher averages...so we know that requires likely multiple systems.  A 200% forecast in a place like NY or Boston would be significant...For places that may average only 5-6" of snow, that is not as much of a gamble.  Now for folks that average a foot or more...that forecast is bolder.  I just hope we can get a bunch of storms to track for the forum area.  That is what makes it fun.

[Carvers Gap]

5 hours ago, AMZ8990 said:

  If it comes to fruition then I feel bad for all our employers cause we all would be spending a lot more time on tropical tidbits and American WX than work. lol

Nothing quite like setting the alarm for the midnight run of the EPS and seeing like 10-15 folks logged-on and doing the same thing!

[jaxjagman]

22 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Nothing quite like setting the alarm for the midnight run of the EPS and seeing like 10-15 folks logged-on and doing the same thing!

 

[AMZ8990]

44 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Nothing quite like setting the alarm for the midnight run of the EPS and seeing like 10-15 folks logged-on and doing the same thing!

 So true, we’re all gonna have jacked up sleeping schedules for the next 4 months no doubt.  We just have to perfect our technique of getting out of bed quietly so we don’t wake up our wives!!  

[jaxjagman]

I have some crap maps,but i'm glad Accu switched from to the Control runs on the weeklies to the Euro itself.But even though it's more of a +EPO,if there would be HP building up South of the Aleutian Islands,this would promote a more -EPO and potentially flood us in with some colder air into Dec.,the pic is at the end of the run,Dec 3rd.It's all presumption at this point, but the look isn't bad IMO

[Carvers Gap]

Read a bit of JB this AM.  I know...mets are going to roll their eyes a bit.  But hey, I like they guy...I can't help it.  He did actually make a really good post about the new Euro seasonal forecast that just came out.  Looks like the newest Euro seasonal sobered up a bit and is now normal for temps over the SE and EC. It is my understanding that it is a bit of a shift....I don't have access to the seasonal stuff, so just going by what I read.  It is not a flip, but change to more normal for seasonal temps - 500 maps are relatively the same.  I will share you one screen shot, just to give you a glimpse at the idea.  Here is the 500 map (temps are near normal under these BN heights).

It looks an awful lot like the WxBell and DT seasonal forecast, and is very similar to discussions on this forum.  I actually like that it has seasonal temps.  I honestly start getting nervous when there is too much consensus for cold.  However, one can look at the map and see many good signals.  Firstly, that configuration would likely feature plenty of storms taking the low road depending on where the boundary is with each storm.  There is a nice western ridge.  One thing that JB did mention is that there is not much high pressure over NA during Dec/Jan.  That likely limits our cold source.  February is nasty...cool and stormy w good source regions.  Overall, what I do like is that the Euro seasonal is now finally acting like it "sees" the El Nino climo.  Dec is cool, Jan warm, Feb is cold.  Without using the months as parameters...cool start -> thaw -> backloaded cold/stormy.  

 

[nrgjeff]

I also noticed the ECMWF Euro monthly charts keep a cold upper-level pattern Dec-Feb. Surface does not respond as much on the new run. Hmm, where have we seen that before? November EPS, lol!

ECMWF monthly clusters shed some light. Dec/Jan both have a warm cluster of about 1/3 of the members. Take it out, and  surface temps average BN. In fairness, take out the cold cluster and...

We're not talking about warm crap, lol! With El Nino developing and early signs the stratosphere might want to play, I see no reason to deviate from slightly BN temps. I was never very cold. Probably not wall-to-wall cold either. Could be a thaw somewhere in December or January.

Finally I do like Rays Weather. Surely he's a Met. Main thing is he has a skiers / riders focus for the NC Highcountry. Seasonal outlook can be applied to Tennessee mountains. Finally the broader pattern discussion is valid for much of the Southeast. 

[AMZ8990]

  Looks like the first real frost of the season could come this weekend.  We’ve only gotten down into the mid to upper 30’s so far this fall so 29 will feel pretty cold if it comes to plan on the 9th.  

[Mr Bob]

On 11/5/2018 at 11:04 AM, Carvers Gap said:

Read a bit of JB this AM.  I know...mets are going to roll their eyes a bit.  But hey, I like they guy...I can't help it.  He did actually make a really good post about the new Euro seasonal forecast that just came out.  Looks like the newest Euro seasonal sobered up a bit and is now normal for temps over the SE and EC. It is my understanding that it is a bit of a shift....I don't have access to the seasonal stuff, so just going by what I read.  It is not a flip, but change to more normal for seasonal temps - 500 maps are relatively the same.  I will share you one screen shot, just to give you a glimpse at the idea.  Here is the 500 map (temps are near normal under these BN heights).

It looks an awful lot like the WxBell and DT seasonal forecast, and is very similar to discussions on this forum.  I actually like that it has seasonal temps.  I honestly start getting nervous when there is too much consensus for cold.  However, one can look at the map and see many good signals.  Firstly, that configuration would likely feature plenty of storms taking the low road depending on where the boundary is with each storm.  There is a nice western ridge.  One thing that JB did mention is that there is not much high pressure over NA during Dec/Jan.  That likely limits our cold source.  February is nasty...cool and stormy w good source regions.  Overall, what I do like is that the Euro seasonal is now finally acting like it "sees" the El Nino climo.  Dec is cool, Jan warm, Feb is cold.  Without using the months as parameters...cool start -> thaw -> backloaded cold/stormy.  

 

JB is fine if you take it for what it is worth....he is always looking for a way to get to cold even if it is only a possibility.  When you start using it as gospel truth, you have crossed to the weenie side. 

Most are cautiously optimistic about this winter and it doesn't hurt to have something like next week's cold snap which times out pretty similar to Nov 14 (almost to the exact date)...obviously every year is different but I am feeling good about...

[Carvers Gap]

45 minutes ago, Mr Bob said:

JB is fine if you take it for what it is worth....he is always looking for a way to get to cold even if it is only a possibility.  When you start using it as gospel truth, you have crossed to the weenie side. 

Most are cautiously optimistic about this winter and it doesn't hurt to have something like next week's cold snap which times out pretty similar to Nov 14 (almost to the exact date)...obviously every year is different but I am feeling good about...

Yep.  Agree w the JB comment.  One thing I like about AmWx is that folks do a good job of looking at both sides of the coin - potential for warm and cold.  I also think right now that it is really tough to get BN temps for DJF because of the seemingly prolonged warm spells that seem to accompany winters of the last 2-3 decades.  Now, most winters have a thaw...not saying that.  Just seems like the intensity and duration of those warm shots have a tendency to erase BN temps.  In some ways it skews how those winters are viewed.  

Glad to hear you are feeling good about this winter...Hopefully we have some things to track and discuss in terms of snow.  I do think the low solar and Nino state are good indicators.  I am leaning towards a back-loaded winter(second half).  I am less in the camp of a cold/snow December...but can see a path to how that could happen.  I would certainly be glad to be wrong on the Dec part.  Some Nino years do have quick starts.  I know some reputable folks have mentioned that December could be cold.  Again, my thoughts are slightly AN for DEC, normal-ish JAN, BN February w slightly AN snowfall.  Any thoughts on how winter progresses once we get past this cold snap?

[John1122]

Through yesterday I'm at -1.9 for the month to date. That will get significantly lower over the next 10 days by the way it looks now. It should make it pretty tough for November to finish anything but BN for the month.  This doesn't by any means guarantee a great winter, but it certainly eases my mind compared to AN November winters.

Around the region Tri is at +3 as it has been oddly warm there. Chattanooga is at -0.7, Knoxville is at +0.7, BNA +0.2 (both will fall into BN after today) London Ky is at -0.7,  Jackson Ky is at -1.5, Memphis is at -3.0, Crossville is at -2.1, Clarksville is -0.8, Jackson TN  is at -1.5, Huntsville, Al is at -1.1. 

So pretty much the entire valley area outside of far NE TN is or will be BN for the month after today. If the GEFS is to be believed we will average -8 to -12 valley wide over days 1-5, and -6 to -8 over days 6-10 and normal in the West to -1.5 in the East over days 11-15.

The average temperate for the month of November

at Tri is 46.6 - record for Nov is 38.8 1976

at Tys 49.7 - record is 42.7 1951

at Cha 51.2 - record is 42.7 1976

at CSV 46.6 - record is 39.3 1976

at BNA 49.5 - record is 40.9 1976

at CKV 48.8 - record is 41.8 2000 (no station in 1976)

at MEM 52.2  record is 45.5 1976

at LOZ (Ldn, Ky) 46.5 record is 36.1 1976

at HSV 51.2 record is 42.8 1976

Looking at those and looking at the records, Memphis has a shot at setting a record cold November this year, already being at -3 for the month and looking to spend the next 10-12 days around -8 to -10 on average.  No one else is going to approach 1976 most likely but there is a shot if the numbers verify for some places to approach top 5 coldest November temps which are 2-4 degrees warmer than record cold years.

7 of the 10 coldest Novembers on average across the region correspond to 7 of the 10 snowiest winters in the area. So lets hope this cold snap has the teeth it appears to have now and that we can fall into the snowy winter side of the cold November analog. 

[jaxjagman]

Like where the MJO is at.Depending what it does tho.Both the GEFS and Euro shows it possibly getting out of the COD into 8,1 around the 24th.Will be watching this into Dec

[Daniel Boone]

Excellent discussion guy's! I remember November '76 well. First flurries the 6th. 1st measurable snow the 13th with 3-4in. Below 1500 ft. 4-6" above. Very cold month that heralded the infamous winter of 77. 

[Carvers Gap]

These threads are starting to run together(November and winter...I can't remember which threads have which comments...LOL)...definitely pulling for a cold November.  I would be surprised if we got to record territory by the end of the month. Temps during the last week of the month are going to take a chunk(of debatable proportions) out of departures.  If TRI goes AN or BN it will likely be close.  Definitely will be interesting to watch.  I am leaning(at least for today) towards the warmth being short in duration relative to the seasonal timeframe, maybe lasting 10-15 days.  Then, maybe we get to see the Nino pattern that we have all waited for.  But TRUST ME, I am definitely OK with November going BN...but I still think the warm-up is probably coming during that last week and likely significant.  Gladly will be wrong.  I really like this type of weather - the cold kind to be specific.  The more, the better.  Sometimes I wonder if the cold modeled will verify at those levels....In my own thinking, I go back-and-forth on whether the models are backing off compared to earlier runs.  I could probably cherry pick either idea.  Whether November finishes warm or cold, what is important is that we are getting a significant cold shot that has some duration.  So, whether TRI is slightly above or slightly below, I think "John's teleconnection" will still likely ring true here.  So, one thing that we do know is to be careful when the models show weak amplification in the medium to long range...if this next week is any indicator, future troughs might actually be stronger than modeled.  Something to tuck away for later use.  If the cold is stronger than originally modeled, that can be a good sign for later...I never like winters where cold is always weaker than modeled.  Anyway, going to enjoy a great Tennessee win tonight...so not talking too much weather.  

[Carvers Gap]

2 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

Like where the MJO is at.Depending what it does tho.Both the GEFS and Euro shows it possibly getting out of the COD into 8,1 around the 24th.Will be watching this into Dec

Yep.  You all know that I like the MJO.  Underrated post right here^^^^^....if we can get into the pattern where the MJO keeps going low amplitude through the warm phases, that would be awesome.  JB highlighted that...so not really my idea.  Just thought it supports what you are saying.  

[AMZ8990]

31 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

These threads are starting to run together(November and winter...I can't remember which threads have which comments...LOL)...definitely pulling for a cold November.  I would be surprised if we got to record territory by the end of the month. Temps during the last week of the month are going to take a chunk(of debatable proportions) out of departures.  If TRI goes AN or BN it will likely be close.  Definitely will be interesting to watch.  I am leaning(at least for today) towards the warmth being short in duration relative to the seasonal timeframe, maybe lasting 10-15 days.  Then, maybe we get to see the Nino pattern that we have all waited for.  But TRUST ME, I am definitely OK with November going BN...but I still think the warm-up is probably coming during that last week and likely significant.  Gladly will be wrong.  I really like this type of weather - the cold kind to be specific.  The more, the better.  Sometimes I wonder if the cold modeled will verify at those levels....In my own thinking, I go back-and-forth on whether the models are backing off compared to earlier runs.  I could probably cherry pick either idea.  Whether November finishes warm or cold, what is important is that we are getting a significant cold shot that has some duration.  So, whether TRI is slightly above or slightly below, I think "John's teleconnection" will still likely ring true here.  So, one thing that we do know is to be careful when the models show weak amplification in the medium to long range...if this next week is any indicator, future troughs might actually be stronger than modeled.  Something to tuck away for later use.  If the cold is stronger than originally modeled, that can be a good sign for later...I never like winters where cold is always weaker than modeled.  Anyway, going to enjoy a great Tennessee win tonight...so not talking too much weather.  

Great win indeed, I’m pumped about it too.  CJP has us going in the right direction.  Not to mention butch only had 1 top 25 win in his first 2 years.  CJP now has 2 in his first year alone!!!  

[jaxjagman]

4 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Yep.  You all know that I like the MJO.  Underrated post right here^^^^^....if we can get into the pattern where the MJO keeps going low amplitude through the warm phases, that would be awesome.  JB highlighted that...so not really my idea.  Just thought it supports what you are saying.  

Ninos stay out the warm phases,i.e.. 4,5,6 or somewhere in that line,this Nino still isn't coupled yet,you can get an good idea just looking at todays SOI ROSE TO +11 which is more Nina,even the 30 day shows a more positive/neutral of almost +4.8

[John1122]

The GEFS may be wrong, the GEM ens may as well, but this is the look the GEFS is throwing out for the next 16 days. That is getting us into the last 3-4 days of November. Tri may be the exception in the region because it's been way warmer compared to average than the balance of the valley. But if these actually come to pass, there just won't be any way for the majority of the region to finish above normal unless the last 3-4 days of Nov are 80/60 or something crazy. Especially considering places like Huntsville, Memphis and Crossville are in the -2 to -3 range for the month already.  As for the GEPS, it's even colder than the GEFS over this period. Granted, both may be wrong and we won't verify nearly that cold. 

 

[Carvers Gap]

I don't think there is any debate that the next ten days are going to be cold, maybe vodka type cold for some of it.  As noted, likely in the November thread, this is going to be week 1(likely 4) vs week2/3.  I don't see much this morning that says the last week of November will be cold.  Those maps above look about right.  The last map is a 5 day map which likely means the cold has likely been eroded or even displaced by warm, Pacific air by around the 24th-ish.  The actual zonal pattern is seen on most models now around November 20 or 21st - takes a couple of days for the Pacific air to reach our forum area.   The EPS might be a hair quicker and warmer.  So, no changes to my thinking there.

I am also not sure what to make of the departures at TRI.  Seems like TRI is always a bit warmer against the norms during Nino winters.  The further into the SE regions one goes, the cooler it gets against the norms - generally speaking during weak to weak/moderat Ninos.  So, that might be part of it.  I will say that it has not been uncomfortable hear in terms of cold until maybe yesterday at mid-day.  I think the LR models have done pretty well...warm start to November followed by cold followed by a bit of a wildcard last week(now appears warm).  Something that is interesting is that our(TRI) daytime temps through the first ten days of November are warmer than Knoxville's.  Knoxville has had roughly .75" more of rain.  Even with a -14 F departure yesterday, we are still +1.4 the month.  Maybe less rain has allowed for the sun to be out a bit more here?  Also, the current cold is maybe a half day slower, so that might be skewing things as well.  It is sometimes a different world in NE TN with mountains surrounding us on three sides.  

I would also add that while I don't think a cold November itself is causal, I do think what causes the cold during November gives us a hint into potential drivers for winter.  So, I think John's November Rule will work out nicely this winter....we are getting a great cold shot with decent duration.  That likely means that the transition to winter has begun, and it raises the possibility that the cold pattern will repeat at some point.  That means that the winters that follow colder Novembers will have a head-start in terms of pattern. 

Now, here is what I originally came to post...the models are showing some interesting things in the distant future.  And again, this is what I am most interested in...What happens after the warmth that follows this cold (because then we are actually talking winter then)?  The EPS is slower w the GEFS a bit faster.  I often find the GEFS recognizes cold patterns more quickly, but jumps the gun on timing.  The GEFS looks like it is trying to form a -NAO...danger there is that it might actually form a WAR.  But the evolution of the pattern in days 10-15 of both models (at high latitude) may be setting the stage for the next cold shot sometime during the second or third week of December.  Have a great Sunday, everyone.  Great discussion as always.  

 

[Carvers Gap]

Here you go....hot off the press.  I haven't read it yet.  Maybe it will give us some new material to chew on...

 

[Carvers Gap]

Isotherm with one of maybe the best lines of text in AmWx history right here...and I mean that as a compliment.  

The progression toward El Nino has been quite mercurial in that westerly wind bursts, surges of positive frictional torque, mountain torque, and angular momentum have generally been rapidly countervailed by diminutions in those values. 

[Carvers Gap]

22 minutes ago, *Flash* said:

Thanks for sharing, CG. The tent pegs of my meteorological lexicon never cease to mature when reading such posts. To be clear, Isotherm is providing insight as to why El Nino may be slower to strengthen, particularly east of the mountains, correct? I'll get to reading his outlook when time permits later today...

This is how I accurately or inaccurately translate this in my mind after consulting a dictionary....The El Nino has been quick and unpredictable in its occurrence as evidenced by westerly wind bursts, surges of frictional torque, mountain torque, and angular momentum which have been counterbalanced by the decreasing of those values.  As for the exact meaning...seems like the El Nino is on schedule and has rapidly gained influence and has lessened the influence of the mentioned values.  I think those torque values tend to mean that zonal should predominate, but is not or has been lessened.  Or I could be just completely and totally wrong.  LOL.  Someone else want a shot at it? 

The next sentence(below) implies that some things have been working against the Nino, but the Nino will eventually win...those things working against the Nino are (I think?) those four things mentioned in the sentence above....

This atmospheric warfare may persist to a certain extent, but eventually Nino-esque predilection will predominate.

[jaxjagman]

MJO today is getting out of the IO,where the arrow is.Suspect the CFS is going to be to fast with it.But,there is some signs of some decent westerlies reappearing around the 3rd week of Nov give or take.30-DAY SOI is getting close to being a more Nina,+4.8.If the westerlies hold with what is showing,the SOI will start to go back more Nino

[Holston_River_Rambler]

 Robert (I think) WXSouth's outlook.  Couldn't find it reading back through the thread, but apologies if someone else has already posted it.  Not much different than what we've been talking about, but maybe every little bit helps? 

 

[Carvers Gap]

23 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

MJO today is getting out of the IO,where the arrow is.Suspect the CFS is going to be to fast with it.But,there is some signs of some decent westerlies reappearing around the 3rd week of Nov give or take.30-DAY SOI is getting close to being a more Nina,+4.8.If the westerlies hold with what is showing,the SOI will start to go back more Nino

In honor of your great MJO and SOI discussion...I dropped some info in the fall thread.  I think you are right on the money.  I dug a little and I think the MJO and SOI(not coupled) is creating havoc in LR modeling.

So...I am moving my LR discussion into this thread, even if it is regarding late November.  Looks like western areas of the forum may indeed need the fall thread for near term discussion.

Well.........that sure looks the 12z EPS blinked.  I am not even sure that would be classified as zonal.  Looks more like a ridge rolling forward w a trough right behind it.  From what I can tell, it is now quite similar to the GEFS.  The EPS has more warmth which makes sense after any trough departs.  GEFS looked a tad too cool.  But those models are only off about 72 hours in timing now instead of a week, and are in reasonably good agreement for that time frame..  We will see if that looks hold - I hope it does.  If true(stress IF), that might set the stage for a cold start to December.  My guess is the models are jumping the gun just a bit...but we do not want a zonal pattern to get established.