Long Range Winter Speculation 2018/19

[John1122]

A very simple take on winters in the region is this in my experience. In the 1950s-1970s it snowed often in winter. It was often cold. It didn't seem to matter what state certain drivers were in, the most favorable ones (NAO/AO/PNA) were often favorable.   Heck, 1965-66 was a strong El-Nino, which is usually tough for winter here, that didn't even matter. It was a frigid/snowy winter. 

The 1980s began to transition away from that. It snowed and was cold in the first half of the 80s but it became less frequent in the 2nd half. From the late 1980s until the late 2000s good winters were the rare exception rather than the rule they were in the 1970s and decades prior. Since 2009-10 it's been feast or famine. We will have 2-3 colder winters with snow chances, then 2 winters where you chase individual flakes.

[Carvers Gap]

33 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Just saw Carver's post further explaining the QBO. Thanks Carver!

No problem.  I think that might explain some of the discrepancies.  The solar min/max can sometimes "flip" the way the -QBO and +QBO effects NA.  A +QBO with an accompanying solar max is not a bad deal either.  OTH, a -QBO w a solar max can place a warm signature over the SE.  Also, I think a weak La Nina coupled w low solar and an easterly QBO is a decent signal but not foolproof.  The biggest takeaway that I got from re-reading D'Aleo's writing last winter is that the -QBO tends to warm the pole...the ENSO and solar tend to have an impact on where the cold is displaced - which is not always over eastern NA.  Again, sorry to move the pea around.  That is a lot of good research that you have done, but again, the two other factors (ENSO/solar) might account for the "why" things might not be adding up with just a straight -QBO to -NAO correlation.  

@*Flash*, how is it going?  Yeah, we are just chewing on the QBO this week.  LOL. 

[Carvers Gap]

14 minutes ago, John1122 said:

A very simple take on winters in the region is this in my experience. In the 1950s-1970s it snowed often in winter. It was often cold. It didn't seem to matter what state certain drivers were in, the most favorable ones (NAO/AO/PNA) were often favorable.   Heck, 1965-66 was a strong El-Nino, which is usually tough for winter here, that didn't even matter. It was a frigid/snowy winter. 

The 1980s began to transition away from that. It snowed and was cold in the first half of the 80s but it became less frequent in the 2nd half. From the late 1980s until the late 2000s good winters were the rare exception rather than the rule they were in the 1970s and decades prior. Since 2009-10 it's been feast or famine. We will have 2-3 colder winters with snow chances, then 2 winters where you chase individual flakes.

After 84-85, there was a sharp drop here as well in terms of snow here in Kingsport, might have even begun around 1980(I lived in Florida during that year and the next) - missed the big ice storm.  The AMO graph(negative phase) above really fits with the good winters here right until it double-dips during the 80s.   The current, positive AMO phase seems to have more consistently strong values when compared to the 30s-mid60s positive.  Just very few weak years w the current positive.  Also, I wonder if Jeff's rule of thumb about changing indices is also in play.  It may be that consistently cold winters begin as the AMO turns south even while still positive.  The AMO bottomed out during the mid 70s, and then some famous winters followed as it rose.  Also, the PDO may factor as well...not sure if it is better coupled or uncoupled from the -AMO. It may be that the AMO is not due to flip for a few more years...but maybe a downward turn will help our winters.  But it should flip between 2020-2030.   

edit:  Solar cycles may very well be woven into much of that as they do correlate some to the QBO/PDO/AMO.

[Windspeed]

Loving the detail in this thread. I don't post much but I follow everyone and thoroughly enjoy the discussion. My knowledge is better suited to ironing out tropical stuff, but even that lacks significantly in comparison to the knowledge base shared here with regards to pattern/climate speculation for our region. I will say that based on what has been posted so far, I am feeling more optimistic for the eastern Valley's chances of some substantial snowfall events this season.

 

John and Carver have mentioned the disparity between the last 30 years and the 50s-70s, when even large positive or negative swings in oscillations made less of an impact on snow accumulations. It seems like our Winters back then were just more eventful and memorable. I grew up in the 80s/90s though so that was before my time. However, regardless of mean temperatures and pattern oscillations, a southerly low-level jet likely still dominated most of those memorable snow storms.

 

As the past decade has shown, bitter cold patterns do not necessarily result in significant totals of frozen accumulation. Last January was a somber reminder that polar deserts are no fun with weeks of polar airmass in place without a sniff of flakes. My limited experience always shifts back to the big events of the 90s where even an above normal seasonal mean in temperature still included large snowfall events. Some of our best snows came from falling temperatures and just enough cold reinforcement out of the Midwest/Kentucky versus long duration events of deep cold established throughout the Valley. Yes, moisture feed and eastern 500mb spatial DAM heights and blocking have to be there there as well. But it seems like Miller storm track/southerly jet combo has frequently bit us in the rear the last few decades. We have watched countless big CAD/SE events score huge totals in the Southeast to Mid-Atlantic while the western side of the Appalachians get downsloped to death and shafted. Of course, we even seemed to struggle with modeled 2-3" variety northwesterly clippers holding together for the eastern half of the Valley the past few years. Despite my Debbie Downer attitude, and I apologize for that, I really am feeling positive about this season now. Otherwise, I will slip back into lurk mode so as to not taint this discussion any further.

[jaxjagman]

Very good Flash,i believe tho post like this deserves it's own thread.

[tnweathernut]

2 hours ago, *Flash* said:

All right. So...this isn't Webber or Griteater level, but it's a start. Hoping most outside the forum who aren't as weather literate will be able to follow this.

Monthly breakdown vid/references can be found at the bottom of the post if you rather cut straight to the chase.

https://deepfryedmind.blogspot.com/2018/10/flash-weather-2018-19-winter-weather.html

Well done!  I appreciate the time taken to put this together.   I know all outlooks are a labor of love and this looks well reasoned and laid out thoughtfully.  Kudos!

[Carvers Gap]

2 hours ago, *Flash* said:

All right. So...this isn't Webber or Griteater level, but it's a start. Hoping most outside the forum who aren't as weather literate will be able to follow this.

Monthly breakdown vid/references can be found at the bottom of the post if you rather cut straight to the chase.

https://deepfryedmind.blogspot.com/2018/10/flash-weather-2018-19-winter-weather.html

I like it!  Great breakdown.  Always makes me proud to see one of our own build such a comprehensive piece of work.  

[John1122]

Greatly enjoyed that, Flash, hopefully you grab an A on the overall forecast next spring!

[nrgjeff]

Started this bottom of page 5 before realizing we are on page 6. Great stuff everyone!

I do believe the NAO has favored decades either direction, even though the NAO is itself sub-seasonal. The 60s-80s and some parts of the 50s featured more blocking in general. Possibly the PDO ties in. The AMO may as well. The latter two wave periods are offset by 10-15 years, looking at long-term smoothed averages. Solar cycles were weak those decades too. All tied together? Hope in a weak solar cycle? Could be.

@*Flash* / Deep Fry article is a gem. Several years ago PDO was trying to go negative; then, went back to positive with a few El Nino years recently. It wavered like this in the 1950s too. Eventually PDO may drop some more. If following the past two long cycles, the AMO drops 10-15 years later. That gets us to those cold 1970s. I believe both negative together is quite cold nationwide, even though -PDO alone is warm here. Then in the 1980s +PDO developed but a -AMO lingered and delivered a few more memorable events. Plains and Tenn Valley do not diverge too sharply here, though the patterns differ a bit. Article shows temperature charts.

Looking farther back one could discern cool decades 100 years ago, warm 1930s-40s, cold 60s-80s, and then the sharp warming trend 1990s to present. A weak solar cycle or deep solar min could turn it around, unless carbon dioxide now overrides irradiance. See Climo Sub.

[John1122]

The NASA climate scientist who's panel I attended this summer was bullish on winter weather during this low solar period. She said the minimum was still likely 12-18 months away. Which would put it at June 2019/January 2020. She tied the low solar activity into the  the little ice age and  the year without a summer. She said this minimum was an extremely low minimum compared to the recent past events and similar to those from long ago. So at least in her mind, there's a decent impact on winter weather with low solar activity. Of course the entire global climate conditions have changed since then, so no telling what the ultimate result would be to the very low minimum.

[BlunderStorm]

4 hours ago, *Flash* said:

All right. So...this isn't Webber or Griteater level, but it's a start. Hoping most outside the forum who aren't as weather literate will be able to follow this.

Monthly breakdown vid/references can be found at the bottom of the post if you rather cut straight to the chase.

https://deepfryedmind.blogspot.com/2018/10/flash-weather-2018-19-winter-weather.html

Thank you Flash for your winter forecast presentation. I felt you made strong arguments for what the main drivers of winter would be this year and I can in fact say I was able to follow along. I could see people with little interest in weather struggling to understand it but I believe it hits my demographic of people with an interest in weather but with only cursory knowledge quite well.

[Mr Bob]

4 hours ago, *Flash* said:

All right. So...this isn't Webber or Griteater level, but it's a start. Hoping most outside the forum who aren't as weather literate will be able to follow this.

Monthly breakdown vid/references can be found at the bottom of the post if you rather cut straight to the chase.

https://deepfryedmind.blogspot.com/2018/10/flash-weather-2018-19-winter-weather.html

Nice job! Don't believe in the 60s-70s winters here anymore but the 10,11,14,15,18 stretches are still on.....I'm running with the winter bulls this year....Look out! 

[jaxjagman]

Some good snow growth into Siberia the last 8 days

[jaxjagman]

Here John,went through my links, knew i had something better

snow/ice

[John1122]

11 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

Here John,went through my links, knew i had something better

snow/ice

For whatever reason, that is the site that won't work for me. It gives a security error no matter which browser I use to open it. Says the security certificate is figured incorrectly.

[jaxjagman]

2 hours ago, John1122 said:

For whatever reason, that is the site that won't work for me. It gives a security error no matter which browser I use to open it. Says the security certificate is figured incorrectly.

Naval sites all do this,just don't put any credit card info or password info which i don't think you'd have to do anyways on this site.But use your own discretion.

[jaxjagman]

Here is the UKMet seasonal forecast in percentage to be a warm winter (DJF),nothing really much to see but thought i'd post it.

[Carvers Gap]

Alan Huffman's winter forecast for your reading pleasure...

http://raleighwxmodels.com/awhuffma/Winter/Winter2018-19Forecast.pdf

[Carvers Gap]

Here is the DJF CANSIPS run that was just released.  While I was reading the MA forum's winter thread, I noticed that wxusaf had posted Ventrice's tweet about the model.  I know you all don't like embedded Tweets so here are the 500 maps.  The 2m temps are AN for December and January though the 500 maps look good - IMHO the CANSIPS can have a very warm bias until the very last run before the month at hand.  Overall, to echo the MA comments, we will take this look even w the 2m temps.  Nice blocking over Greenland during January and February.  I like Nino winters, but I always forget how much patience it takes because often they are backloaded.

[nrgjeff]

Raleigh Wx looks reasonable, with the mild start and cold finish. However I'm not quite as cold any month. I'm warmer Dec. Near normal here Jan. Cold Feb. but not MB. 

I think Tweets are OK if they contribute to the flow, which that would have. My only gripe is when one barely understands the tweet and posts like it's their thoughts (not the case here).

In this case Carvers offers his own thoughts on the CANSIPS, so the tweet embed would have been fine by me. Cheers!

[Carvers Gap]

3 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

Raleigh Wx looks reasonable, with the mild start and cold finish. However I'm not quite as cold any month. I'm warmer Dec. Near normal here Jan. Cold Feb. but not MB. 

I think Tweets are OK if they contribute to the flow, which that would have. My only gripe is when one barely understands the tweet and posts like it's their thoughts (not the case here).

In this case Carvers offers his own thoughts on the CANSIPS, so the tweet embed would have been fine by me. Cheers!

Man, I was just ribbing you a bit.  Your point last winter was well taken.  Original thought is part of what makes this forum unique.  Hope that didn't come across as less than good natured fun.  Have a great weekend to you as well!  

[nrgjeff]

LOL I'd actually forgotten with whom I sparred. It's all good!

Anyway one path to the Raleigh charts would be that variable pattern. If I'm thinking warm Dec. but it is variable, then the closer to normal might verify. January is all about the timing, before or after Martin Luther King Day. The Feb. chart would require the variable pattern get stuck cold. 

The South winter is like a power hitter; I've said it before. If we can time a system or two right, instead of strike-outs it will be home run(s).

[Carvers Gap]

Here is DT's forecast...just now watching it myself.

 

[Carvers Gap]

Here is a regional product from Ray's Wx in Boone, NC.  For those in NE TN and the E TN foothills, there is almost always some decent info in his forecasts that is applicable to this area.  I also think they tend to do a good job of not hyping.  

http://booneweather.com/public/FearlessForecast.pdf

[jaxjagman]

6 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Here is a regional product from Ray's Wx in Boone, NC.  For those in NE TN and the E TN foothills, there is almost always some decent info in his forecasts that is applicable to this area.  I also think they tend to do a good job of not hyping.  

http://booneweather.com/public/FearlessForecast.pdf

Seen some good predictions for "AN" snowfall.Hope it happens.Still like yalls area better,i like Dave's maps, -NAO will keep storms suppressed to the South and east,unless it's a really strong system we generally are left out.

[Carvers Gap]

23 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Seen some good predictions for "AN" snowfall.Hope it happens.Still like yalls area better,i like Dave's maps, -NAO will keep storms suppressed to the South and east,unless it's a really strong system we generally are left out.

Hope is all we have in November.  Ha!  I tend to be "I'll believe it when I see it" or "sometimes things that look to good to be true..." type of person.  But yeah, the El Nino state and solar are tough not to get excited about.  Even normal temps during DJF can bring really good chances for the entire forum area.  The thing that I want to see is plentiful precip.  I think if we get that and normal temps...we will see some opportunities.  We will see.  I tend to think about what can go wrong when things look a bit too  good to be true.  I do think the biggest risk during any winter is that precip and cold get out of sync during prime climo.  Last winter was a great example of that.  It would warm-up and rain.  Nino winters do typically have some nice events where rain will transition to snow w coastal plain systems.  I am ready to start tracking though!  Have a great Saturday, Jax.

[AMZ8990]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

Here is DT's forecast...just now watching it myself.

 

 

What does -TNH/+TNH stand for carver?

[jaxjagman]

14 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said:

What does -TNH/+TNH stand for carver?

Tropical/Northern Hemisphere

[Runman292]

Did DT take his video down? I can't play it.

[jaxjagman]

5 minutes ago, Runman292 said:

Did DT take his video down? I can't play it.

Odd,he removed it