Long Range Winter Speculation 2018/19

[AMZ8990]

24 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Think i agree,either a thread should be made or move this to summer

Done!

[Carvers Gap]

27 minutes ago, John1122 said:

We are in fall and it's part of the weather that's happening in the future. So I don't have any issue personally with it being here. But maybe we need a short term thread and we can leave this the long term thread for beyond 5 days discussion? 

Ditto.  No doubt...I think we only have like a page and a half of posts on Florence anyway.  So, it is not like the hurricane talk is taking over.  And I agree, Florence is part of the pattern discussion.  I don't think many would have made a storm thread(until today) as the actual system was not really dialed-in until yesterday.  We barely have enough posters to keep this thread going...much less two threads.  When we go back and look at seasonal threads, we need what occurred during that season.  This is not a winter thread.  Maybe we need to split the Winter Speculation and Fall topics into two threads?....Not sure that we need a separate thread for a wind and rainmaker.  Honestly, those folks in the SE have it so bad...seemed a bit odd to have a thread just for the remnants.  

[Carvers Gap]

Yeah, I think the problem is the fall pattern thread and the winter speculation thread need to be two separate threads.  That said, with so few people posting I can see why just one thread was needed.  But I think the problem is that the pattern thread which rightly includes Florence is washing out the winter discussion.   I don't think a Florence thread will fix that.  What we need to do IMHO is to leave this as the winter speculation thread(since that is what it began as) and then make a fall pattern thread.  That would solve the problem.   Otherwise, we are going to have to keep making event specific threads for events that may not be substantial for most in this forum, especially during this time of the year when we have fewer posters.  Really, all that it would take is to simply rename this as the original winter speculation thread and then make a new fall pattern thread.  

[John1122]

1 hour ago, stadiumwave said:

Wish a single thread were made for Florence. Let's keep this thread for overall fall & winter pattern discussion if we could.

I know most are focused Florence right now & rightfully so. But holy moly on JMA Seasonal for DEC!! Average Oct, warm Nov. BUT DEC...robust -EPO, -NAO (blocking mostly around Davis Strait). Looks very similar to updated Euro:

The entire winter looks NUTS also. Look at 3 month first & you can change through individual OCT/NOV/DEC.

 

Then you can click on DEC-FEB mean on first page of link. Good stuff...if you like winter! Winter mean has robust -EPO, -NAO, -AO combo.

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/pztmap.php

November warmth is never a good sign for winter weather. If the mean temp in Knoxville for November is above 48 degrees, the winters are almost always lacking in snow/cold in this part of the valley at least. Not checked on the western valley but I imagine their results are similar. The new normal for Knox in the 1981-2010 climate cycle is 49 in November, thus a large number of very poor winter performances during that time. But when November has managed to come in below average, the winters have tended to be cold/snowy at some point. In 2014 the November mean temp averaged 41.6 at Knoxville (I recorded this number in the 2014 thread, and I went back and looked at the NWS official record and it's been changed to 43.2, no idea how it got almost 2 degrees warmer 4 years later.) and I talked about that in the winter pattern discussion. 2014-15 ended up being quite excellent for snow/cold. So pull for that to be wrong about November if you want the white stuff to pile up!

[Carvers Gap]

2 minutes ago, John1122 said:

November warmth is never a good sign for winter weather. If the mean temp in Knoxville for November is above 48 degrees, the winters are almost always lacking in snow/cold in this part of the valley at least. Not checked on the western valley but I imagine their results are similar. The new normal for Knox in the 1981-2010 climate cycle is 49 in November, thus a large number of very poor winter performances during that time. But when November has managed to come in below average, the winters have tended to be cold/snowy at some point. In 2014 the November mean temp averaged 41.6 at Knoxville (I recorded this number in the 2014 thread, and I went back and looked at the NWS official record and it's been changed to 43.2, no idea how it got almost 2 degrees warmer 4 years later.) and I talked about that in the winter pattern discussion. 2014-15 ended up being quite excellent for snow/cold. So pull for that to be wrong about November if you want the white stuff to pile up!

Ugh.  Good catch.  Our numbers at TRI are not even reliable anymore regarding snowfall(so much missing data on well-known storms), even during ongoing events but especially for historical numbers.  Even though we are in different regions and elevations, I actually rely on your numbers more because they don't change.  I haven't even looked at our temp numbers....prob would just make me mad.  What is nice about this forum is that we can record information that will not get altered for whatever reason.

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, AMZ8990 said:

Done!

AMZ, would you be willing to change the Florence thread to Fall Pattern and flip this one back to winter speculation?  edit...OR just make this the winter spec thread, keep the Florence thread, and create a fall pattern thread.

[John1122]

3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Ugh.  Good catch.  Our numbers at TRI are not even reliable anymore regarding snowfall(so much missing data on well-known storms), even during ongoing events but especially for historical numbers.  Even though we are in different regions and elevations, I actually rely on your numbers more because they don't change.  I haven't even looked at our temp numbers....prob would just make me mad.  What is nice about this forum is that we can record information that will not get altered for whatever reason.

The NWS numbers are completely unreliable, especially snowfall numbers. This was the first I'd noticed that much temperature fudging. There's a station near here in Newcomb. It recorded snowfall, rainfall and temp data for most of the the last 60 years or so until I believe 2012.  It held the state record for snowfall in 24 hours for the November 1952 storm with 22 inches, that stood until the Blizzard of 1993 and LeConte started having official recordings.  According to NWS records that station averages 2.5 inches of snowfall per year from 1951-2012. The stations in Jamestown and Tazewell are slightly further south and close in elevation, Tazewell averages 16.4 inches and Jamestown 18.2 inches over the same time period. They also claim Oneida, also in the same latitude/elevation range, only averaged 7.5 for that period. So they "lose" data and apparently just slap a 0 on the snowfall total for the day and plow ahead and average it out.

[AMZ8990]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

AMZ, would you be willing to change the Florence thread to Fall Pattern and flip this one back to winter speculation?  edit...OR just make this the winter spec thread, keep the Florence thread, and create a fall pattern thread.

I can handle that.  I’ll have it done soon.

[Carvers Gap]

2 hours ago, AMZ8990 said:

I can handle that.  I’ll have it done soon.

Thanks.  I pulled my Florence posts...that way this will be only a winter speculation thread.  Otherwise in five years, this will not make any sense to have hurricane posts in a winter spec thread. 

[stadiumwave]

4 hours ago, John1122 said:

November warmth is never a good sign for winter weather. If the mean temp in Knoxville for November is above 48 degrees, the winters are almost always lacking in snow/cold in this part of the valley at least. Not checked on the western valley but I imagine their results are similar. The new normal for Knox in the 1981-2010 climate cycle is 49 in November, thus a large number of very poor winter performances during that time. But when November has managed to come in below average, the winters have tended to be cold/snowy at some point. In 2014 the November mean temp averaged 41.6 at Knoxville (I recorded this number in the 2014 thread, and I went back and looked at the NWS official record and it's been changed to 43.2, no idea how it got almost 2 degrees warmer 4 years later.) and I talked about that in the winter pattern discussion. 2014-15 ended up being quite excellent for snow/cold. So pull for that to be wrong about November if you want the white stuff to pile up!

 

2014 is a bad example. 2014 was 100% because of recurring typhoon Nuri bottoming out in the Bering Sea. Caused a monster ridge & trough. 

But NOV 1977, 1986, 2009 were all torch NOV.  And all of those were modoki winters & 2 of them cold & snowy ones. 

Can't use the word "never" when it comes to weather.

[Daniel Boone]

6 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

 

2014 is a bad example. 2014 was 100% because of recurring typhoon Nuri bottoming out in the Bering Sea. Caused a monster ridge & trough. 

But NOV 1977, 1986, 2009 were all torch NOV.  And all of those were modoki winters & 2 of them cold & snowy ones. 

Can't use the word "never" when it comes to weather.

Those years you listed stadium were as you said. 77 Nov. Was mild till after 20th then winter set in with a vengeance , long, cold and snowy. 86 was a mild Nov. Then slightly colder than avg. Winter with very snowy spine of apps eastward(note: 2-3 feet of snow April 87 here ). 09-10 cold / snowy Dec thru Feb. . A nws statistic several years ago had a correlation of 60% odds of cold winter when Nov is cold. So, some greater prob. If it's cold.

[John1122]

19 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

 

2014 is a bad example. 2014 was 100% because of recurring typhoon Nuri bottoming out in the Bering Sea. Caused a monster ridge & trough. 

But NOV 1977, 1986, 2009 were all torch NOV.  And all of those were modoki winters & 2 of them cold & snowy ones. 

Can't use the word "never" when it comes to weather.

There are exceptions, as there always are in any kind of analog. But the majority of warmer than 48 degree Novembers in Knoxville resulted in less than stellar to down right terrible winters.

These are the two 500mb vs normal for DJF from the top 20 warmest Novembers since 1948 vs the top 20 coldest since 1948. 

 

[John1122]

The anomaly in the PAC NW during the warm November is pretty significant when averaged over a 20 different years. It's hard to move the bar that much from average over a long period of years. But those years appear to feature a rampaging -PNA which would lead to there being significant western troughs in those winters. There are a few great winters in there and there are a few clinkers in the cold Novembers but by far we want the cold November 500mb pattern vs the warm one. 

[stadiumwave]

On 9/13/2018 at 12:31 PM, John1122 said:

There are exceptions, as there always are in any kind of analog. But the majority of warmer than 48 degree Novembers in Knoxville resulted in less than stellar to down right terrible winters.

These are the two 500mb vs normal for DJF from the top 20 warmest Novembers since 1948 vs the top 20 coldest since 1948. 

 

 

 

When averaging that many years it only takes a few extremes to really mess with blend. I recommend going through all the winters you listed in the warm NOV. There were some really good winters. There were also a few extremely warm winters that skew the mean.

 

Point is if we have a warm NOV it is not cancel winter. 

[John1122]

3 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

 

 

When averaging that many years it only takes a few extremes to really mess with blend. I recommend going through all the winters you listed in the warm NOV. There were some really good winters. There were also a few extremely warm winters that skew the mean.

 

Point is if we have a warm NOV it is not cancel winter. 

Actually, the 40 total winters in the past 70 years is a pretty big statistical pool and and the 500mb pattern in each set is glaring and it isn't swayed by one or two winters in the set. NOAA sets new climatological norms based on 30 years. If we have a warm November we might not lose, but we're down 10 going into the 4th quarter and the other team is playing good defense. That big -PNA that shows up after warm Novembers is the worst possible winter pattern here, we can make almost every other pattern work if we can get cooperation in that region, but if the PNA is deeply negative, we're going to have warm SW flow and cutters as a rule during those winters. It shows up in the final snow tallies as well, 7 of the 10 snowiest winters in the region came following years with BN Novembers. Including the legendary 1959-60 winter, 1984-85 and 1995-1996.. On the flip side, 7 of Knoxville's 10 least snowy winters came after above average Novembers. 

[stadiumwave]

19 hours ago, John1122 said:

Actually, the 40 total winters in the past 70 years is a pretty big statistical pool and and the 500mb pattern in each set is glaring and it isn't swayed by one or two winters in the set. NOAA sets new climatological norms based on 30 years. If we have a warm November we might not lose, but we're down 10 going into the 4th quarter and the other team is playing good defense. That big -PNA that shows up after warm Novembers is the worst possible winter pattern here, we can make almost every other pattern work if we can get cooperation in that region, but if the PNA is deeply negative, we're going to have warm SW flow and cutters as a rule during those winters. It shows up in the final snow tallies as well, 7 of the 10 snowiest winters in the region came following years with BN Novembers. Including the legendary 1959-60 winter, 1984-85 and 1995-1996.. On the flip side, 7 of Knoxville's 10 least snowy winters came after above average Novembers. 

 

So...again, you're not getting the point. I'm NOT arguing about the fact that statistically odds decrease for a cold winter in tn valley after a warm NOV. 

I'm arguing that your word "NEVER" (used in your original post in reaction to JMA) is wrong & you just unknowingly admitted that in your post above. Chances of a cold winter after a warm NOV may decrease significantly but they are NOT eliminated. A -PNA NOV is not a guarantee of a -PNA DJF. That's all I'm arguing. Hence my pointing out the cold winter years in your 40 years...which destroys the word "NEVER". 

Not sure I can break it down anymore than that. 

 

[John1122]

5 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

 

So...again, you're not getting the point. I'm NOT arguing about the fact that statistically odds decrease for a cold winter in tn valley after a warm NOV. 

I'm arguing that your word "NEVER" (used in your original post in reaction to JMA) is wrong & you just unknowingly admitted that in your post above. Chances of a cold winter after a warm NOV may decrease significantly but they are NOT eliminated. A -PNA NOV is not a guarantee of a -PNA DJF. That's all I'm arguing. Hence my pointing out the cold winter years in your 40 years...which destroys the word "NEVER". 

Not sure I can break it down anymore than that. 

 

You are missing the point, I used the word never in the correct sense but for some reason you don't comprehend quite what I said. I said November warmth is never a good sign for winter weather.   I'm really not sure what point you are possibly trying to make disputing that. Are you saying that a warm November is a good sign for DJF? Can you show me some actual scientific evidence that if you like winter weather in the area that it's good to have a warm November? I'd actually be encouraged if it exists.

 I pretty clearly broke down the reasons why November warmth is never a good sign for winter weather here. The 500mb pattern is on average, hostile to chances of winter weather in the DJF timeframe following them. This pattern pretty clearly plays out in the 7-3 split both ways in regards to the snowiest winters vs the most snow free winters in the area.

It could be 5 degrees above normal here this November and then snow 2 feet this winter valley wide, but my post would still be true because that scenario happens way less often after a warm November than it does after a cold November.  Thus a warm November is never a good sign for winter weather. 

 

[Carvers Gap]

I definitely like where this evening's Euro Weeklies are heading very late in the run.  Take that w a huge tablespoon of salt as it is shoulder season and waaaay out there.  However, that run (and to some extent the past couple of runs) wants to drive the season's first cold air mass south during mid-late October followed by seasonal temps...but w pretty decent blocking in the form of a -EPO and -NAO building.

[John1122]

With Carvers talk about this being such a warm September in the Tri Cities (currently +4 over the prior record), I figured I'd do for it what I did for warm Novembers there.  These are the mean 500mb anomalies over North America following the 20 warmest Septembers vs the 20 coldest. The 20 coldest map is crazy.

Warm Sept/

 

Cold Sept.

 

[John1122]

That wild 500mb map after warm Septembers leads to much less cold the following winter than one would think. Not much difference in DJF after warm Septembers for our region either. So all in all, a warmer or colder than average September at Tri doesn't seem to sway winter temps much in either direction come winter.  I'd actually probably favor the temperature set up after a warm Sept. Our source cold is the upper Midwest, North Dakota to Minnesota and adjacent Canada. That area is much colder vs average following the warmer Septembers.

 

 

 

[Carvers Gap]

Good stuff, John1122.  Yeah, I don’t draw much correlation to warm Septembers and Octobers.  Interesting too the the cold September map...maybe that is why I like Autumn to get here early?  I definitely don’t like dry falls to precede winter.  Honestly, I am just tired of four extra weeks of summer that some evil groundhog drummed up.

[ShawnEastTN]

19 hours ago, John1122 said:

That wild 500mb map after warm Septembers leads to much less cold the following winter than one would think. Not much difference in DJF after warm Septembers for our region either. So all in all, a warmer or colder than average September at Tri doesn't seem to sway winter temps much in either direction come winter.  I'd actually probably favor the temperature set up after a warm Sept. Our source cold is the upper Midwest, North Dakota to Minnesota and adjacent Canada. That area is much colder vs average following the warmer Septembers.

 

 

 

I'd also almost argue we would generally want AN or at least normal September and October to get a possible BN November, since we don't tend to keep cold air around very long in the forum especially late fall to early winter.

[Carvers Gap]

Great discussion in this thread.   My two cents right now...We are having the annual "NAO vs PNA/EPO" discussion which I enjoy BTW .  I also enjoy trying to extrapolate fall temps into winter which rarely works.   All of that is much more interesting than the mega-ridge that we are currently experiencing.  That said, I think ENSO is the single best indicator for winter across the forum area.  That is why @jaxjagman 's ENSO thread is important.  I might add that(as expected) the ENSOs that promote great winter in one area of the forum are not optimum for others.    Moderate or strong versions of either state normally don't work out in NE TN though a moderate Nina is not so bad for areas in the western third of the forum area.  Nadas are not great IMBY.  However,  weak Ninas or weak Ninos are decent setups.  Weak Ninas are dry but cold.  Weak Ninos don't normally bring extreme, sustained cold...but they do bring plenty of moisture.  It is a rare winter when we get both cold and snow for extended periods.  Most winters have 2-3 weeks(if we are lucky) where conditions support snow, and those weeks are not necessarily back-to-back weeks.  Sometimes we nickel and dime our way to a decent winter.  I have this discussion w a friend of mine from time-to-time...but it has been a pretty long time since we have recorded 1' during a storm in the Tri-Cities.  I am not sure if that is related to the ever diminishing chance for the -NAO or if it is that we are just in a down cycle for big storms.  But it has been a while since a big storm has hammered the area(meaning 1' plus).  Aside from ENSO, I try to bring in tools such as the QBO and MJO as sometimes a combination of things can help w snow chances.  But like I said, we always have three things working against us in this forum area...latitude, proximity to warm GOM waters, and lower elevation.  Those three things will fight even the best set-up and betting money is always on those.  Watching for snow is often like watching a one-armed bandit...just waiting for the right 2-3 conditions to pop-up so we can hit the jackpot.  Anyway, I do think that we finally have some things to talk about. 

[Carvers Gap]

And I will add that we have about three more weeks before we can really make a good guess at the winter pattern.  @jaxjagman, what is the latest ENSO update consensus?  If the pattern will flip during mid-October, I actually think that may be a good sign.  If the ENSO will remain weak during the heart of winter, that is an even better sign.  But really, like most winters everything is purely hypothetical at this point.  I still like my overall prediction of DEC being slightly AN regarding temps, January being within a degree of normal either way, and February being slightly BN w the winter averaging out ever so slightly AN.  I don't have a snow prediction yet, and those are just a crapshoot.  However, with record warmth so far this year, the data set for attempting to correlate fall to winter will be very small(this year might be its own analog...I still like that line).  If forced to predict snow, I would go with regional averages.  We could go higher than normal, but I just don't see the indicators that would place us their yet.  If the consensus outlook for ENSO is for it to be weak(at least for the heart of winter), I might be willing to go slightly above normal.  The overall trend is BN snowfall during the past couple of decades w some recently good winters.  So, it is tough for me to go AN for snow.  I will have to see it to believe it.

[jaxjagman]

Westerlies showing up now.SOI has been -10 the last 30-days so more or less we're in a Nino state  right now.MJO is going to try and make it into the IO by the  looks then crash back into the COD upcoming.Seasonals should be out in a few days,be interesting to see what they show

I haven't been feeling to hot lately.Got admitted into the hospital Thursday for test but everything came back negative.Blood pressure went up to 186/101,never had high BP before.Hopefully this has passed.

[Carvers Gap]

On 10/2/2018 at 11:46 PM, jaxjagman said:

Westerlies showing up now.SOI has been -10 the last 30-days so more or less we're in a Nino state  right now.MJO is going to try and make it into the IO by the  looks then crash back into the COD upcoming.Seasonals should be out in a few days,be interesting to see what they show

I haven't been feeling to hot lately.Got admitted into the hospital Thursday for test but everything came back negative.Blood pressure went up to 186/101,never had high BP before.Hopefully this has passed.

Man, just now saw this for some reason.  Hope you get it figured out!  Hospital visits are no fun.  Appreciate the wx update as well.  Feel better soon!

[tnweathernut]

On 10/2/2018 at 11:46 PM, jaxjagman said:

I haven't been feeling to hot lately.Got admitted into the hospital Thursday for test but everything came back negative.Blood pressure went up to 186/101,never had high BP before.Hopefully this has passed.

Sorry to hear Jax, hope you are feeling better soon!  This getting older stuff isn't for the faint hearted..............

[AMZ8990]

On 10/2/2018 at 10:46 PM, jaxjagman said:

Westerlies showing up now.SOI has been -10 the last 30-days so more or less we're in a Nino state  right now.MJO is going to try and make it into the IO by the  looks then crash back into the COD upcoming.Seasonals should be out in a few days,be interesting to see what they show

I haven't been feeling to hot lately.Got admitted into the hospital Thursday for test but everything came back negative.Blood pressure went up to 186/101,never had high BP before.Hopefully this has passed.

Hope you get to feeling better soon buddy.  

[Carvers Gap]

Here is a nugget from the CANSIPS that is released at the beginning of each month.  Also, admittedly I am cherry-picking a good look.  Though, other LR models have depicted this off/on for the past few months. This is for January.  Basically, November and December transition to this look.  February is similar, but the pattern is breaking down.  The 2m temps are normal over the SE which tells me the source region is not overly cold.  IMHO, the CANSIPS can have a warm bias(I am not saying that just because it does not have us as BN).  Overall, the 500 map has plenty of features in the right places.  Would anyone care to share what the new Euro forecasts for NDJFM look like?  

[nrgjeff]

ECMWF Euro monthlies are all cold December through March. I'll believe it when I see it, but figured I'd report. Cold is not extreme but no warm months are shown after October. November is near normal, zero line bisects region warmer SE. Storm track fluctuates between too wet and mild, too dry and cold, and some ideal. I guess that's climo, lol!