Long Range Winter Speculation 2018/19

[jaxjagman]

First off,i was just pointing out what the QBO  was showing NOW.I never in insinuated because it was so negative now that it would be a a cold winter,just wanted to clear that up.You can go up to the July,28 post i made above back then and putting some comparison to the 2009-10 winter.But the ENSO surely doesn't seem to acting like 2009,not right now anyways.

[Carvers Gap]

6 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

First off,i was just pointing out what the QBO  was showing NOW.I never in insinuated because it was so negative now that it would be a a cold winter,just wanted to clear that up.You can go up to the July,28 post i made above back then and putting some comparison to the 2009-10 winter.But the ENSO surely doesn't seem to acting like 2009,not right now anyways.

I think it was a great point that you made.  Glad that you brought it up.  I hadn't realized it was that low...just got me to thinking out loud which is alway dangerous.  You and John brought some great stuff to the board!

@Save the itchy algae!As for the QBO having merit...it does IMO.  We used it last winter pretty effectively to predict the cold shot and one could argue the strat split as well.  It has an arguable correlation to high latitude block.  Just not sure it has as much influence this winter unless it pops positive.  Negative QBOs at 30mb correlate to some snowy winters in NE TN.  Like the screen name BTW.  Post more!

[John1122]

It may fortell blocking, but it doesn't seem to fortell cold/warm winters. Probably the one thing I did notice was that in winters that it was negative and cold, it tended to be when it was dropping from positive to negative rather than late in its negative cycle.  But I'm not sure anything could be inferred from that because as I mentioned, sometimes it's deeply negative and we torch. Sometimes it's positive and we freeze. The opposite of those seem to occur as well.  We are fridgid when it's negative and warm when it's positive.  

I would have thought 2006 would have been extremely cold if it was going to lead to blocking. It was dropping into record low territory through fall 2005.

Instead of blocking in the N Atl we had the SE ridge and the lowest temp in Knoxville for the whole month of January was 24.  There are often days when it's not that warm for the high in January with good blocking in place.  

I'll look more closely at sensible weather when it's negative vs positive.  But in 1959-60 there was incredible Atlantic blocking when it was positive.  I believe that 1977-78 was also a blocky time in the Atlantic and it was positive. There are other examples of it being negative with no blocking to speak of as well, like 2005-06. 

So there are certain signals that seem to be much more of a guarantee regarding sensible weather here.  PNA/AO/NAO trump all other signals in my opinion, including ENSO. The PDO is also a strong signal to see what the weather will do here as well. The PDO trumped a super Nino and a +NAO a couple years ago and delivered enough cold to produce savage winter weather. 

There are other signals that seem to have less impact or at least less is known about their impact. I feel like the QBR is one of them.  

 

[jaxjagman]

48 minutes ago, John1122 said:

It may fortell blocking, but it doesn't seem to fortell cold/warm winters. Probably the one thing I did notice was that in winters that it was negative and cold, it tended to be when it was dropping from positive to negative rather than late in its negative cycle.  But I'm not sure anything could be inferred from that because as I mentioned, sometimes it's deeply negative and we torch. Sometimes it's positive and we freeze. The opposite of those seem to occur as well.  We are fridgid when it's negative and warm when it's positive.  

I would have thought 2006 would have been extremely cold if it was going to lead to blocking. It was dropping into record low territory through fall 2005.

Instead of blocking in the N Atl we had the SE ridge and the lowest temp in Knoxville for the whole month of January was 24.  There are often days when it's not that warm for the high in January with good blocking in place.  

I'll look more closely at sensible weather when it's negative vs positive.  But in 1959-60 there was incredible Atlantic blocking when it was positive.  I believe that 1977-78 was also a blocky time in the Atlantic and it was positive. There are other examples of it being negative with no blocking to speak of as well, like 2005-06. 

So there are certain signals that seem to be much more of a guarantee regarding sensible weather here.  PNA/AO/NAO trump all other signals in my opinion, including ENSO. The PDO is also a strong signal to see what the weather will do here as well. The PDO trumped a super Nino and a +NAO a couple years ago and delivered enough cold to produce savage winter weather. 

There are other signals that seem to have less impact or at least less is known about their impact. I feel like the QBR is one of them.  

 

84-85  you posted on the other page was a developing Nina but in 1984 we had an early SSWE in Dec.Then into Jan we really felt the artic plunge with all time record lows for any date, for many places in the Valley

 

 

 

[John1122]

4 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

84-85  you posted on the other page was a developing Nina but in 1984 we had an early SSWE in Dec.Then into Jan we really felt the artic plunge with all time record lows for any date, for many places in the Valley

Yes, it was a legendary outbreak of both cold and snow for the entire region from Memphis to the Tri-Cities. That was with a QBO peaking downward in August and then rising quickly into winter. 2005-06 had a much later peak into late fall and was blazing hot in January. I wonder if there is as Carvers mentioned any relationship to QBO and SSWE? 

Looking back to the 1950s when the QBO was -10 or lower in DJF and checking the NAO status we find the following.

1956-57 it was -15, -13, -11 in DJF. The NAO was neutral, mildly positive and mildly negative in DJF. This was at the end of the cycle.

1962-63 it was -15, -17, -16 DJF. The NAO was moderately negative each month. This was entering the negative cycle.

1965-66 it was -21, -21, -17 DJF. The NAO was positive, moderately negative, and moderately negative.  This was ending the cycle.

1970-71 it was -17, -11, and then +3 DJF. The NAO was negative, negative, neutral. This was ending the cycle. Also, keep in mind this was the 8th straight mostly -NAO winter in a row in the 1960s into 1970. The 60s were like a mini ice age here and the NAO was negative regardless of QBO phase.

1974-75 it was -22, -16, -15 DJF. The NAO was moderately positive, positive and negative DJF. This was the end of the cycle. 

1976-77 it was -11, -14, -15 DJF. The NAO was negative, negative and negative. This was beginning the cycle.

1979-80 it was -17, -11, -6 in DJF. The NAO was positive, negative, negative. This was the end of the cycle. The winters of the 1970s were also -NAO for the most part. I believe 6 of them averaged negative. The most negative NAO month was February 1978. Which happened during a winter of entirely +QBO with it climbing. 

1981-82 it was -12, -12, -14 in DJF. The NAO was neutral, negative, positive. It was beginning the cycle and the NAO got more positive as the QBO went more negative.

1983-84 it was -11, -10, -11 in DJF. The NAO was neutral, positive, positive. This was the beginning of the cycle. That cycle ended in November of 84 and was neutral when the great cold wave of 85 hit. The lowest NAO average of the 1980s came in a month when the QBO was neutral.

1986-87 it was -10, -11, -10 in what was a weak downward valley. The NAO was positive, negative, negative during this one. It was the beginning of the cycle.

1991-92 it was -13, -14, -14 in DJF. The NAO was mildly positive, mildly negative, mildly positive those 3 months. This was the beginning of the phase.

It didn't fall back below -10 the rest of the 1990s. The most negative NAOs of the 1990s came when the QBO was very mildly negative, around -3. The only winter with a DJF with the -NAO each month features a neutral QBO of around +1 to -1.

2000-01 DJF was -14, -15, -15 DJF. The NAO was basically neutral all 3 winter months. This was the beginning of the cycle.

2005-06 it was -25, -18, -11 in DJF. The NAO was neutral, positive, negative for the 3 months. It was ending the cycle, the NAO actually got more negative after the cycle died out. It was almost -2 in March 06 after the QBO had hit neutral.

2007-08 it was -20, -12, -5. The NAO was neutral/mildly positive all 3 months. This was the ending of the cycle.

2009-10 it was -16, -16, -17. The NAO was negative all three months. This was the start of the cycle.

2011-12 it was -16, -16, -15 DJF. The NAO was extremely positive, positive, and neutral. This was the start of the cycle.

2014-15 it was -25, -26, -28 in DJF. The NAO was moderately positive DJF. This was the beginning of the cycle. The Pacific crushed the Atlantic signals that winter.

2017-18 -18, -19, -19 DJF. The NAO was positive, positive, and positive for the winter. This was also the beginning of the cycle. We were cold in January but once again the Pacific drove the bus. 

  In those 18 winters of the most negative QBO we find that in 31 of the 54 months the NAO was neutral or positive. In 23 months it was negative.  Overall out of 187 winter months since 1956-57, the NAO was negative for 68 of them and neutral or positive for 119 of them with a large number of those months taking place in the 1960s and 70s.

 

 

 

[jaxjagman]

Abstract

[1] Stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) are a major source of variability during Northern Hemisphere winter. The frequency of occurrence of SSWs is influenced by El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO), the 11 year solar cycle, and volcanic eruptions. This study investigates the role of ENSO and the QBO on the frequency of SSWs using the National Center for Atmospheric Research's Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model, version 3.5 (WACCM3.5). In addition to a control simulation, WACCM3.5 simulations with different combinations of natural variability factors such as the QBO and variable sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are performed to investigate the role of QBO and ENSO. Removing only one forcing, variable SSTs or QBO, yields a SSW frequency similar to that in the control experiment; however, removing both forcings results in a significantly decreased SSW frequency. These results imply nonlinear interactions between ENSO and QBO signals in the polar stratosphere during Northern Hemisphere winter. This study also suggests that ENSO and QBO force SSWs differently. The QBO forces SSW events that are very intense and whose impact on the stratospheric temperature can be seen between December and June, whereas ENSO forces less intense SSWs whose response is primarily confined to the months of January, February, and March. The effects of SSWs on the stratospheric background climate is also addressed here.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2011JD015757

[Isotherm]

16 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

The drop during the fall season (where it goes negative) is a pretty good signal for blocking IMO.  Last couple of winters it has been pretty good tool, but like most wx tools it does not work well without other metrics.  I do think there are some winters where it is not a good signal, and indeed this one might be iffy.  Whether it had anything to do w the strat split last spring is open for debate.   @Isotherm has used the QBO(in his seasonal forecasts) before which is where I learned about the tool.  I will tag him and see if he cares to comment.  The QBO rise during winter can be a good sign for a flip to warming temps.   To me the trajectory seems to signal/not signal blocking.  I don't really see it as determining intensity of the overall winter.  Blocking in the eastern valley, especially NE TN, can be a big player where we Atlantic storms do pump moisture over the mountains.  That said, I will always agree that ENSO is a major trump card.  I do think the optimum set-up for snow is slightly different in NE TN when compared to the northern Plateau as we just don't get the forcing that you all do - which is why Atlantic systems that throw moisture back over the Apps are prime for big snows here.  Middle and west TN have very different setups unless we all manage a slider.  As for the rising QBO, it does not necessarily mean that the winter is warm...just means that a quick flip to spring is possible (again, off the top of my head).  I "think" 84-85 actually had that flip.  Just saying that the when the QBO begins to have a strong positive trajectory, things can flip warm suddenly.  I will do some more digging.  Hopefully, Isotherm will stop in and add his two cents.  He has forgotten more than I will ever know.

 

@Carvers Gap : 

The kind words are appreciated. I would not utilize the QBO as a correlate of blocking in and of itself (the correlation is minimal in a vacuum); however, its utility increases exponentially when employed adjunctively with other indices, most notably, proxies for solar status/activity. Further, the QBO trend; positive --> negative; negative transitioning toward positive, has proven somewhat informative as to the overall nature of the winter blocking. Again though, while yes, a(n) descending (ascending) QBO would implicate heightened (decreased) blocking probability, I don't place too much weight on QBO variation singularly. Further, there are other confounding variables that can contaminate this analysis, such as upstream tropical forcing, among other factors. Sudden stratospheric warming events occur with greater frequency in the negative QBO regime, but the sun modulates this probability as well.

Going forward into this winter, the QBO will incontrovertibly be in an ascending phase; whether it converts technically positive during winter remains to be seen. However, we know, at the very least, it will be weak (either slightly negative or slightly positive most likely). Solar activity remains in a descending phase; so superficially, the probability appears somewhat heightened for potential -NAM, but there are other modulatory factors I examine in the autumn that I inject into my, "blocking equation" so we'll see how those shake out in a couple of months. 

 

[Carvers Gap]

4 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

Abstract

[1] Stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) are a major source of variability during Northern Hemisphere winter. The frequency of occurrence of SSWs is influenced by El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO), the 11 year solar cycle, and volcanic eruptions. This study investigates the role of ENSO and the QBO on the frequency of SSWs using the National Center for Atmospheric Research's Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model, version 3.5 (WACCM3.5). In addition to a control simulation, WACCM3.5 simulations with different combinations of natural variability factors such as the QBO and variable sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are performed to investigate the role of QBO and ENSO. Removing only one forcing, variable SSTs or QBO, yields a SSW frequency similar to that in the control experiment; however, removing both forcings results in a significantly decreased SSW frequency. These results imply nonlinear interactions between ENSO and QBO signals in the polar stratosphere during Northern Hemisphere winter. This study also suggests that ENSO and QBO force SSWs differently. The QBO forces SSW events that are very intense and whose impact on the stratospheric temperature can be seen between December and June, whereas ENSO forces less intense SSWs whose response is primarily confined to the months of January, February, and March. The effects of SSWs on the stratospheric background climate is also addressed here.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2011JD015757

Great find.  Yeah, like I said earlier, the QBO had to be used in conjunction w other factors.  I think the underlined section depicts that.  As Judah Cohen infamously demonstrated, relying on one factor is probably infamous.  Remember the Siberian snow cover debacle?  Now, I like Judah and how he thinks out of the box...but he was humbled (as we all are) when we rely overly much on one thing.  Even ENSO which I have grown to rely more heavily on....is not infallible.  I prefer to think of the various winters as genetic compositions.  In humans, there are traits that are more dominant when others are not present.  It takes two recessive genes in order to make a trait such as blue eyes appear.   And while I think there is a correlation between QBO(see my comments last winter...I am just honestly to lazy to repost them), maybe the QBO is evidence that another underlying factor is also present.  After all, the QBO is really just a reversal in wind direction at the 30mb and 50mb layers of the atmosphere.  So, it may be that the QBO needs to be found in conjunction w other factors.  There is also a difference in the 50 and 30 mb QBO...I think most refer to the 30mb.  I know last year that we were talking about the QBO and we were actually discussing two different indexes.  Going to cherry-pick my favorite winters...

https://w2.weather.gov/climate/xmacis.php?wfo=mrx

84-85 The benchmark for all winters for me.  The QBO was turning positive.  It was an abnormally long negative timeframe w 19 straight months that were negative.  It would flip positive in February.  The devil is in the details for this winter.  The last week of Dec 84 featured temps in the upper 60s for NE TN.  December was nearly eight degrees above normal for the month in Bristol.  Jan 1 of 85 was 71.  The cold snap for January was centered in all of January.  Had the week in December occurred one week later, those average temps would have been skewed warmer.  That actually happened this winter w a cold month being split between two months - washed out the averages and made them look like average months.  Eventually, the winter of 84-85 would break during the third week of Feb, and it never came back.  February began cold but we managed to hit 70 again that month as well...March went quite warm.  So, the temperature flip did occur that winter.  

95-96 I remember this winter due to snow and cold.  Knoxville missed many days of school.  The QBO had just flipped negative that fall.

09-10 I remember this winter because this is when it seemed that winters became consistently colder here- after many winters without snow.  The QBO had just flipped negative that summer.

14-15(addendum)  The QBO flipped negative during May of that year.  While not a great winter for most of the forum area, it proved to be incredible snowy in Kingsport.  I had to go back on my phone and find the pics which had the dates.  That winter(I think) was the one where Kingsport City ran out of snow days and then some.  

17-18. I will remember this winter for the cold and incredibly dry weather during that timeframe.  The QBO had just flipped negative that fall.  Yes, there was warm...but there was incredible cold as well.

Jax, you said that there was an early SSW that winter.  Indeed it occurred in early January.  Maybe not so coincidentally, it was preceded by incredible warmth here.  As noted earlier this year, I do wonder if episodes of extreme warmth sometimes precede these SSW events - especially in eastern NA.

There were strat splits during the winters of 84-85, 09-10, and 17-18.  

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/csd/groups/csd8/sswcompendium/majorevents.html

Addendum:  I missing one really snowy winter during the 2010s...I will go back and find it, and then add it.  I think it was the winter where we kept getting snow in NE TN, but everyone else struck out.  So, it might no be memorable for everyone....(edit) found it...14-15

[Carvers Gap]

13 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

 

@Carvers Gap : 

The kind words are appreciated. I would not utilize the QBO as a correlate of blocking in and of itself (the correlation is minimal in a vacuum); however, its utility increases exponentially when employed adjunctively with other indices, most notably, proxies for solar status/activity. Further, the QBO trend; positive --> negative; negative transitioning toward positive, has proven somewhat informative as to the overall nature of the winter blocking. Again though, while yes, a(n) descending (ascending) QBO would implicate heightened (decreased) blocking probability, I don't place too much weight on QBO variation singularly. Further, there are other confounding variables that can contaminate this analysis, such as upstream tropical forcing, among other factors. Sudden stratospheric warming events occur with greater frequency in the negative QBO regime, but the sun modulates this probability as well.

Going forward into this winter, the QBO will incontrovertibly be in an ascending phase; whether it converts technically positive during winter remains to be seen. However, we know, at the very least, it will be weak (either slightly negative or slightly positive most likely). Solar activity remains in a descending phase; so superficially, the probability appears somewhat heightened for potential -NAM, but there are other modulatory factors I examine in the autumn that I inject into my, "blocking equation" so we'll see how those shake out in a couple of months. 

 

Greatly appreciate the detailed response and for stopping by the forum.  We have been "chewing" on the QBO topic intermittently for about a year.  Thanks for the insight in how/when to use it along w its weighting in conjunction w other factors.  

[jaxjagman]

Usually an early SSWE means a end to winter sooner than later but not all the time.In Feb we warmed up near 80 into the 3rd week  and never got below 40 again past mid month

 

Edit:this is 1984-85

 

 

[Carvers Gap]

Crap!  The WeatherBell forecast has us in the middle of a very big bullseye of a very big winter in the SE.  Welp folks...I am changing my forecast to much AN for temps and calling for much BN for snowfall.    

[Carvers Gap]

I should add that if you can get your hands on the Euro monthly forecast(depicting each month), WxBell is very similar to those temps.  Not sure if they are correct, I generally have a hard time believing that winter begins early w El Nino winters and like the second half of winter idea...but, hey!  I'll have one of each of what they are having....

[John1122]

2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

I should add that if you can get your hands on the Euro monthly forecast(depicting each month), WxBell is very similar to those temps.  Not sure if they are correct, I generally have a hard time believing that winter begins early w El Nino winters and like the second half of winter idea...but, hey!  I'll have one of each of what they are having....

It may not start early because it seems to be stuck in a pattern of not doing so, but as long as it's not a strong or very strong Nino, December is fair game for winter going full bore. Look no further than 2009 to see it get rolling early. Many other years December was wintry with El Nino. 

I think recently we had some very warm fall/summers and a lot of latent heat was built up around the globe. Those caused winter to get started later than normal. I would love to see a November come in cooler than normal, after that we have a good shot at cold enough winter weather. Positives going into fall, we aren't in a drought. That alone should help fall not be overly hot. 

The oceans look more favorable this year than in a while. Seeing that much of the Atlantic basin below normal hasn't been common, it's usually kept a ton of hangover heat. It's that cool in the basin without upwelling from major tropical systems. Last year everything below the 45th was above average.

Plus the cold pool reaching the west coast across the central Pacific looks good for +PDO conditions.  We've seen how dominant it can be and often is for our weather pattern. It's a strong signal for below normal temps and above normal precip in the Southeast. 

Edit:

Tried to post sea surface map but it's having none of it. 

 

 

 

[Carvers Gap]

@John1122, you may be on to something.  I do agree that just because previous Decembers were warm...doesn't necessarily mean this one will.  As they say, correlation is not causation.  I am just riding Nino climo which favors mid-late weighted winters which likely runs counter to the previous sentence to this one- Ha!  But again, each year is its own analog - still a ton on the table.  JB actually mentioned that he thought winter would begin later...but their analog package does include 09-10, and he admits it could arrive early.  The JAMSTEC, CANSIPS, Euro Monthly output do support a strong winter signal east of the MS, south of a line from the Ohio River extrapolated to the NE to say Boston.  I was surprised at how cold the Euro(monthly) was.  The CFS is not on board at this time.  I like winters loaded in Jan/Feb mainly because we get so little snow in NE TN during early-mid December.  I do agree that a weak Nino is a different animal than all other scenarios.  For NE TN, a weak Nina or a weak Nino can mean interesting winter weather.  A weak Nina usually means heightened chances of severe cold sometime during winter.  Weak Ninos just seem to have more snow here w cold(just not severe cold) along w a lot of cold rain.  And yeah, we will definitely keep an eye on your November signal as it has some decent skill in this area.  I think the wild cards this winter are the NAO pattern and whether December can get winter rolling early.  Here are there analogs from the WxBell initial winter forecast which will likely change some by Fall anyway....

63-64

69-70

77-78

85-86

86-87

93-94

95-96

96-97

04-05

09-10

[Carvers Gap]

And I shouldn't be superstitious...but being in the bullseye in August just gives me a bad mojo feeling.  LOL.  The forum area on WxBell is depicted as -3F to -5F BN for DJF and 133-167% of snowfall(first flake to last flake).  The line for heavier precip is cut from Memphis to the Plateau and to the southeast of that.  The -5F bullseye is centered over Chattanooga - no lie.  I know @nrgjeff is rolling his eyes somewhere! To me, anytime I see -5F(below normal relative to averages) I scratch my head just a bit.  That takes a ton of cold to get that result.  I generally view -2F to -3F as a pretty cold winter.  Even -1F can make for a great winter provided we have moisture.  Just seems that recently our winters(barring a few exceptions) have had a substantial thaw that erases much of the BN temps.  Personally, I don't see -5F BN relative to norms...which makes me a bit skeptical and maybe makes me think I need to cut about 50% off those temp/precip numbers to account for hype.  I will gladly eat a serving of crow if wrong.

If anything, their forecast is a good read and food for thought.  Past that, it is still August and things will for sure change...take w a grain of salt.

[Carvers Gap]

One other rule of thumb that I like to follow is that weather patterns during winter have a shelf life of four to six weeks.  Very tough to get wall-to-wall BN cold like the Euro depicted due to the length of time involved.  Have to think at least one of those months (DJF) will be AN.   

[jaxjagman]

The NMME didn't change much from the last update,still looks more Modoki in fall then less Modoki  into winter

[AMZ8990]

Great stuff guys!!

[AMZ8990]

19 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

And I shouldn't be superstitious...but being in the bullseye in August just gives me a bad mojo feeling.  LOL.  The forum area on WxBell is depicted as -3F to -5F BN for DJF and 133-167% of snowfall(first flake to last flake).  The line for heavier precip is cut from Memphis to the Plateau and to the southeast of that.  The -5F bullseye is centered over Chattanooga - no lie.  I know @nrgjeff is rolling his eyes somewhere! To me, anytime I see -5F(below normal relative to averages) I scratch my head just a bit.  That takes a ton of cold to get that result.  I generally view -2F to -3F as a pretty cold winter.  Even -1F can make for a great winter provided we have moisture.  Just seems that recently our winters(barring a few exceptions) have had a substantial thaw that erases much of the BN temps.  Personally, I don't see -5F BN relative to norms...which makes me a bit skeptical and maybe makes me think I need to cut about 50% off those temp/precip numbers to account for hype.  I will gladly eat a serving of crow if wrong.

If anything, their forecast is a good read and food for thought.  Past that, it is still August and things will for sure change...take w a grain of salt.

Great read,  that is some serious cold!!  Models consistently keep upping percentages of El Niño, who knows what will happen though.  It is fun to play out how a winter like that would be for us though.  I really want to see a big time snow event, 6”+ in one storm type for us.  Maybe this is the year for our forum!  I tend to agree with your statement in your earlier post, NAO is gonna be a huge wildcard this year, lots oF implications one way or the other with how it goes.

[Carvers Gap]

Thought I would share this quote from D'Aleo today on WxBell...

Tom Downs and I have not been confident this El Nino would actually be anything more than a modest Modoki. JB has been pointing towards a Modoki and using it in his analogs. I had observed going back through several solar cycles, that the attempts fail until after the solar minimum which is a year or more away (BTW we have had 130 spotless days this year to date heading for a top 10 quiet year like we saw a decade ago a few times).

[Maestrobjwa]

3 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Thought I would share this quote from D'Aleo today on WxBell...

Tom Downs and I have not been confident this El Nino would actually be anything more than a modest Modoki. JB has been pointing towards a Modoki and using it in his analogs. I had observed going back through several solar cycles, that the attempts fail until after the solar minimum which is a year or more away (BTW we have had 130 spotless days this year to date heading for a top 10 quiet year like we saw a decade ago a few times).

Hi there! I'm from another region (the Mid-Atlantic but I've been kinda scanning the various boards for any winter discussion (since there are general things--especially La or El...that can affect us all!) So I'm wondering if the goalposts of what to expect may range from a Neutral to a weak El Niño....? I mean, is q third consecutive La Niña still on the table, or? (And I'm still not clear on Modoki...)

[jaxjagman]

4 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Thought I would share this quote from D'Aleo today on WxBell...

Tom Downs and I have not been confident this El Nino would actually be anything more than a modest Modoki. JB has been pointing towards a Modoki and using it in his analogs. I had observed going back through several solar cycles, that the attempts fail until after the solar minimum which is a year or more away (BTW we have had 130 spotless days this year to date heading for a top 10 quiet year like we saw a decade ago a few times).

The Solar cycle definite went south in July compared to June.So it'll be interesting to follow this into,later on.Enso there is a DWKW into region 4,but it dont look to make it past much further into 3.4,you can see the waters warming into region 4 recently

 

[jaxjagman]

Still looks to be a more substantial down welling KW  towards the end of the month into Sept.This is where the NMME and it's most counterparts start to kick in Nino or more Modoki leading into fall,so we'll see

[Carvers Gap]

10 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Hi there! I'm from another region (the Mid-Atlantic but I've been kinda scanning the various boards for any winter discussion (since there are general things--especially La or El...that can affect us all!) So I'm wondering if the goalposts of what to expect may range from a Neutral to a weak El Niño....? I mean, is q third consecutive La Niña still on the table, or? (And I'm still not clear on Modoki...)

Others please chime-in as well....I think the range of possibilities(outside goal posts) would be a very weak Nina to a weakly moderate Nino with something in between being the most likely outcome.  I would give a weak Nina a 10-15% chance and a weakly moderate Nino maybe a 20% chance.  So, I would place a 65% chance on a Nada(weakly positive on the Nino side) or a weak Nino.  Speaking of the EC, there can be big differences in surface weather when comparing a Nada to a weak Nino.  I do think things are coming into better focus, but ENSO forecasts can be pretty fickle at times.  As we get into early fall, I think the ENSO state will be an easier call.  Additionally, the weather right now "seems" to have a more Nino feel to it w cooler temps and more rain...That said, I would think we would also see a beefier monsoon season in the southwest if that was the case.

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, *Flash* said:

First off, great QBO disco last week (sorry I missed out) and thanks again to Carver for pulling Isotherm into the mix. Considering I'm jumping into a Synoptic 404 course next spring, ingesting his intel is academically refreshing. As for the ENSO, I just went through today's CPC ENSO presentation:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

Per Carver's odd breakdown, I think I'd take the Nada % down a notch and up the weak Niño %, though that's likely the hopeful optimist in me. Honestly, the more I look at SST maps, the more encouraged I am with the PDO region at least for now. West based Niño/Modoki's have been our friend in their recent occurrences; however, I believe it was John who mentioned each winter is its own analog and Carver who said last year how it's not enough to have the right ingredients...but the right ingredients in the right order. To both, I 100% agree.

At any rate, I've been through this rodeo long enough to know you whatever fears, concerns, or hopes you have in August are better deferred. Gun to my head, I'll mentally blend 2006-07 and 2014-15 and set aim on an up-and-down/'should have at least 2-3 weeks of open season' winter. As long as we don't have a bone-chilling, no QPF spell late December/January...

Are you studying to be a met?  If so, awesome!  I look forward to you putting some of that knowledge use here.  I think the mid-Pac will be warmer than normal.  Seems almost a given.  It is the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific that is of interest.  The BOMM LR model does not predict a Nino according to D'Aleo.  It may indeed be an outlier.  He and JB may actually be a tad bit at odds over the Pacific forecast.  Interestingly, I can almost look IMBY and tell that the Nina is gone.  It is perfectly green - not a brown blade of grass in sight.   That said, D'Aleo made a pretty convincing argument that Ninos have a tendency to fail during low solar times.  Past that, I am out on a limb w the saw in my hand!  LOL.  If forced, I would still go w a weak Nino(or at the least a weakly positive nada).  To me it makes no difference of a few tenths separating the two.  I think we get the same results - snow mid to late winter w/ a better than outside shot at some early winter.

[Carvers Gap]

And Flash, I agree...great thread.

[nrgjeff]

Welcome to our Region. Always good to look upstream. I'm in the Central/West quite a bit myself.

On 8/12/2018 at 7:41 PM, Maestrobjwa said:

Hi there! I'm from another region (the Mid-Atlantic but I've been kinda scanning the various boards for any winter discussion (since there are general things--especially La or El...that can affect us all!) So I'm wondering if the goalposts of what to expect may range from a Neutral to a weak El Niño....? I mean, is q third consecutive La Niña still on the table, or? (And I'm still not clear on Modoki...)

My thoughts are similar to those of Carvers, maybe slightly more bullish (for Nino). Weak El Nino is my most likely scenario (but <50% chance). Outside shot at moderate Nino. Neutral is quite possible too, perhaps second place behind weak. Weak/Moderate together might add up to 60-70% chance. Neutral is the bulk of my remaining 30-35% odds, mostly on the + side. Apples to apples, with Carver's +neutral/weak forecast, I'm quite close to his 65%. Personally, though, I nearly remove La Nina from the table. Believe the fake-out to Nina last year will not repeat. This year sub surface is warmer. Plus more friendly (to Nino) Kelvin Wave activity is forecast. 

So while I do not consider La Nina much, I do not necessarily increase my moderate odds. My bell curve is squeezed more into weak El Nino or +Neutral. Nino 1-2 have struggled to warm up and 3 has been flaky. That crushed severe season. However it if continues a Modoki El Nino would be nice for winter. Could we be that lucky? 3.4 looks solid enough surface to sub-surface.

@*Flash* where are you studying Meteorology? All the best!

[Carvers Gap]

49 minutes ago, *Flash* said:

@Carvers Gap @nrgjeff ...I'm currently enrolled in the BOMP program at Mississippi State. With a BS in Math and 2/3rd's of a Met degree, they agreed to let me take their Synoptic course; however, I have to make a 'B' or higher to gain acceptance into their Master's program. Now, it's going to be an uphill battle given I laid down the science at 21 following a call into ministry (2007), so obviously the time gap is against me. But with a 8-year youth ministry tenure officially in the rear view mirror, the time has never been better to pick up the pursuit and run with it. I guess sometimes the dreams we think are dead are just dormant instead.

Well, that is great news!  Thanks for letting me be nosy.  It is about time that one of the hobby folks from this forum finally get a degree in the field that we enjoy. I have always felt that one thing the other great sub-forums of this site do...is they inspire people to go into some type of field within meteorology.  Not saying we are the reason(you took that brave step), but we can still be proud anyway.  I always enjoy reading posts from met students on the other sites.  Congratulations!  

[nrgjeff]

I have to believe His plan His timing will work out for you. STEM study will all come back like riding a bike!

On 8/14/2018 at 3:20 PM, *Flash* said:

..I'm currently enrolled in the BOMP program at Mississippi State. With a BS in Math and 2/3rd's of a Met degree, they agreed to let me take their Synoptic course; however, I have to make a 'B' or higher to gain acceptance into their Master's program. Now, it's going to be an uphill battle given I laid down the science at 21 following a call into ministry (2007), so obviously the time gap is against me. But with a 8-year youth ministry tenure officially in the rear view mirror, the time has never been better to pick up the pursuit and run with it. I guess sometimes the dreams we think are dead are just dormant instead.

And to our main topic winter spec. I still think weak El Nino or +Neutral, perhaps Modoki region. The KW coming out has made it from the research community to the energy blogs. Hopefully that is not the jinx. At any rate, El Nino should get a little tail wind (westerly wind pun intended).

The 11-20 day forecast shows sharp divergence between the Euro and GFS, and between the old weeklies. Tonight we'll see what the Euro weeklies do. Friday I will comment in the Mid-term Summer Discussion (pinned thread).. unless I feel lazy and just like the expected Carvers post.

[Carvers Gap]

3 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

I have to believe His plan His timing will work out for you. STEM study will all come back like riding a bike!

And to our main topic winter spec. I still think weak El Nino or +Neutral, perhaps Modoki region. The KW coming out has made it from the research community to the energy blogs. Hopefully that is not the jinx. At any rate, El Nino should get a little tail wind (westerly wind pun intended).

The 11-20 day forecast shows sharp divergence between the Euro and GFS, and between the old weeklies. Tonight we'll see what the Euro weeklies do. Friday I will comment in the Mid-term Summer Discussion (pinned thread).. unless I feel lazy and just like the expected Carvers post.

...nah, man.  "Don't you put that evil on me," to quote the movie, Talladega Nights.  I look forward to your post regarding the Weeklies.  Definitely look forward to your discussion about 11-20 day differences and tonight's run.  

(changed you to your...I promise that I can speak English.  And it is Talladega Nights not Ricky Bobby...Yikes!)