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July Doldrums - Summer in full effect Pattern and Model Discussion

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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wxeyeNH

wxeyeNH

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, OKpowdah said:

Alright I need Gray NWS to step up here. WTF. Yesterday it took until 2:37pm to pull the trigger on an excessive heat warning in Keene. Heat index had already been 105F+ for 2 hours at that point.

Now it's already 89/73 = HI of 97F before noon. Where's the EHW? This will be one of the most obvious situations for a EHW in NH of the last few decades, and they're dropping the ball.

I think Keene and the southern counties of NH are in Boston's warning area not Gray Maine.  Here in Central NH at 1100 elevation in the Gray forecst area I had a heat index of over 105F for 4 hours. No excessive heat warning.  I know they try to do the best they can at Gray,  OceanSt is a frequent poster.   Top HI yesterday was 110F at 6pm  95/76.7F

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Some observations at lunch:

Shallow but decisive marine intrusion moved through and beyond eastern Ma and terminated somewhere in the Worcester hills last evening... and, it lowered the 'launch pad.'  This was particularly evidenced by the fact that western zones, and other areas of New England (N and S) that were not invaded by said cooling, stayed at or close to historically elevated lows all night long...  

Contrasting, where this air mass was pooled over Ma... we lost DP and then bottomed clear to 70, with DPs to down into the upper 60s in some cases.  Which, that's still a considerable/toasty combination for a dawn over this region of the country, of course... But... 

Combining that the gradient is still light ..we are not mixing well and this is sort of delaying matters today.  Just in the last hour, the DPs burst back... all the way from 70 at dawn to now 78, matching what it was yesterday.  The temperature is 92. The HI is 106... Looking around, this is at the higher end of the Rt 2 region E of Orange... where they match there.  As does EEN.  

The NAM model insists the wind kicks around to being off shore later in the afternoon... If you live east of I-190 ... you might see a 'late high' today.   

Should the wind remain so light ... limited mixing hurts heat potential with such thick theta-e and just the sun... probably maximize shy of yesterday, but with torridly rich DPs ... not a very comfortable circumstance.  There are meso pockets of relative heat and less heat because of these circumstances...  

 

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rimetree

rimetree

Posted
Posted
26 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

I think Keene and the southern counties of NH are in Boston's warning area not Gray Maine.  Here in Central NH at 1100 elevation in the Gray forecst area I had a heat index of over 105F for 4 hours. No excessive heat warning.  I know they try to do the best they can at Gray,  OceanSt is a frequent poster.   Top HI yesterday was 110F at 6pm  95/76.7F

Cheshire County used to be in Boston's while Hillsborough and Rockingham were always in Gray's as far as I know. I think they put all of NH under Gray a couple years ago?

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, rimetree said:

Cheshire County used to be in Boston's while Hillsborough and Rockingham were always in Gray's as far as I know. I think they put all of NH under Gray a couple years ago?

Cheshire and Hillsborough used to be BOX. Rockingham has always been GYX.

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Spanks45

Spanks45

Posted
Posted

See some convection showing up on the meso models tomorrow evening. Is this a phantom event or is there some legitimacy to this? CT seems to be in the proverbial bulls-eye at the moment? Seems like the type of pattern for slow moving flash flooding storms if the atmospheric cap can lift tomorrow....

92.1/77 HI:107 atm

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Spanks45 said:

See some convection showing up on the meso models tomorrow evening. Is this a phantom event or is there some legitimacy to this? CT seems to be in the proverbial bulls-eye at the moment? Seems like the type of pattern for slow moving flash flooding storms if the atmospheric cap can lift tomorrow....

92.1/77 HI:107 atm

I'm wondering about that 'phantom' gesture by the runs, too. 

Thing is, heights are ballooning and that differential is steadily increasing the cap/CIN values ...as well, the general momentum is DVM/suppression is an increasing negative factors for convection.  

 

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Spanks45

Spanks45

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm wondering about that 'phantom' gesture by the runs, too. 

Thing is, heights are ballooning and that differential is steadily increasing the cap/CIN values ...as well, the general momentum is DVM/suppression is an increasing negative factors for convection.  

 

so essentially the modeled convection disappears in a run or 2 and we still end up on the inside of the "ring of fire" until the whole thing pushes east of Friday....

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

so essentially the modeled convection disappears in a run or 2 and we still end up on the inside of the "ring of fire" until the whole thing pushes east of Friday....

Probability-wise, right - 

There are other factors ... Like, lake breeze out along Erie or Ontario ..even sea breeze moving toward high CAPE ...  wind motion up and over oreographic features... These can off-set static stability ... but, the QPF that NAM and like are painting appears to robust for those isolated scenarios.  

 

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Spanks45

Spanks45

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Probability-wise, right - 

There are other factors ... Like, lake breeze out along Erie or Ontario ..even sea breeze moving toward high CAPE ...  wind motion up and over oreographic features... These can off-set static stability ... but, the QPF that NAM and like are painting appears to robust for those isolated scenarios.  

 

I'm assuming that is what is causing the convection out in western PA/NY this afternoon? and why it fizzles to nothing by this evening....

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