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July Doldrums - Summer in full effect Pattern and Model Discussion

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, weathafella said:

What’s your warmest 90 days?

If I were to guess for me it would be June 10 through Sept 10... something like that.  September as a whole is cooler than June, so I'd lean towards including more June than September.  I think MET Summer is a pretty darn good sample of warmest weather personally.  We are much more likely to see frost/freeze in September than June too.

June/July/August are certainly the warmest months of the year average wise at all local sites.

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HoarfrostHubb

HoarfrostHubb

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

..Mmm be careful .. 

You could be right, and that hypothetical decimal you used there could disseminate over a benign ...well-behaved daily massaged departure of +0.1 for 5,475 straight days... like a permanent hand-held grace period at a new job... 

Or, what that decimal really represents is an increase in event frequency, and it could comes in torridity spikes that are detrimental to living conditions for both nonsessile biota, as well as agrarian concerns - code for anything alive, under the sun.  In this sort of more realistic paradigm ... their severity is secondary characteristic that is also in its self, in growth... 

I mean ...as a side note, species cannot really adapt at those time scales... both animals and plants.  Meanwhile, people are inexorably dependent upon the entire system of those species of the world to exist.  You know? I keep hearing this mantra ...in retorts out there on the web ...television... general media et al...   How humans have remarkable adaptive capacitance, perhaps more so than any other species on the planet bigger than 50 kg. I find that argument to me extraordinarily myopic and well...flawed.  Firstly, we don't do this in a vacuum... We cannot merely adapts to no food, and low oxygen...  Case in point, we f- with the Photoplankton thru chemistry induced shock combined with ill-adaptive temperature changes...etc,  and that part of the oceanic biome fails?  Adios muchachos.   Everything > 50 kg mass is having a bad time of it.   That's just one aspect among many of the larger integrated codependent construct that is the biosphere of this planet... Yet aholes want us all to bury our heads in their sands of ...'it's okay, because we can adapt'  

But I digress... excluding the possibility that global free-oxygen levels suddenly, abruptly extinguish ... As those innocuous decimals increase, they reflect a change in destructive events, too.  So we may feel that more than we think... We aren't going to remember +0.1 in 15 years (and it's probably a bigger value than that)... no, but you only have to die of heat exhaustion once.  

Absolutely.  The 0.1F is prob not correct. Not sure what the current data has it as.

The second part of my sentence was def more loquaciously started by you.  

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tamarack

tamarack

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, weathafella said:

What’s your warmest 90 days?

June 12-Sept 9.  91 days would end on Sept 10; 92 starts on June 11.

We are much more likely to see frost/freeze in September than June too.

Very true.  I've had 32 or below in 5 of 21 Junes, most recently 2007, though there have been 33s and 34s since then (a 34 last month.)  Only one year, 2011, failed to get down to 32 or lower in Sept, with first frost (a doozy - 25°) on 10/6.  Have had frosts/freezes from 9/1 to 9/30 the other years.  (Last Sept's was on the 2nd.)

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JustinRP37

JustinRP37

Posted
Posted

I do love how so many people view an agenda with warming. Most scientists, like myself, are not super wealthy people hoping to change everyone's lives. We collect and analyze data. Unfortunately, things get taken out of context and changed all the time. I focus on the blacklegged tick, a tick which has been moving further and further to the north, and higher on mountains to the south. However, one of the biggest issues that most do not even think about is our largest global carbon sink, which is our oceans. Just like basic chemistry, when you release CO2 into a controlled environment with water, some of the CO2 will dissolve in the water. This forms carbonic acid. That is one reason why even seltzer water is acidic. And how do you carbonate a beverage? You release more CO2 into the bottle forcing the CO2 into the water. This is a natural process. But our oceans are huge buffers and have experienced a pH decrease from 8.2 to 8.1, which might not seem like much, but it is a logarithmic scale, so this is actually a 25% increase in the acidity. This can harm corals, shellfish, etc as they cannot form their shells and structures properly. National Geographic had a great article on this last year: https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/oceans/critical-issues-ocean-acidification/. It is also something that is starting to be noticed by different fisheries throughout the world. Humans are by far the most intelligent creatures to ever roam this planet. I do believe we have the means to develop technology that will enable us to continue to live in the lifestyle we have become accustomed to, but at a much more eco-friendly level. Just look at the advancements we have made with lighting and MPG in cars over the last decade (not to mention aviation). My prior research was in acid-mine drainage remediation from abandoned coal mines in Appalachia, which has come a long way, but it is a very costly endeavor. I will always be thankful for the abundant clean water that our region has. 

Anyways, back to a humid week soon! I think we are all getting use to the dews this summer, so much so that a 66 degree dew feels "refreshing"!

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
15 hours ago, wxeyeNH said:

Pretty impressive.  I think it would be pretty easy to add at least 50 hours and perhaps a lot more over the next week.  That would put Hartford in line for perhaps the most humid summer over the several decades.  What's good for Hartford is good for most of New England.  Is there an easy link to generate a similar graph for other New England sites?

I think this one is it: https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_l=on&q=159

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J.Spin

J.Spin

Posted
Posted
20 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Our climate here used to be yours.. now you have ours and we are more like NJ or NYC as things continue warming 

 

20 hours ago, dendrite said:

A NYC/NJ climo? Noted for DJFM.

 

20 hours ago, weathafella said:

Actually just for Boston, 30 year normals based on 1981-2010 are pretty similar to when I arrived and the data was 1931-60.

I’d be interested in hearing more about the timeframe on DIT’s climate of yore when CT had a NVT climate.  That’s a shift of about 200 miles in latitude.  What climate did we have up here?  When are we talking here, hundreds of years, or back to the last ice age?  Fella’s comment would suggest there’s not much change of note in the past ~100 years.

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
12 hours ago, powderfreak said:

If I were to guess for me it would be June 10 through Sept 10... something like that.  September as a whole is cooler than June, so I'd lean towards including more June than September.  I think MET Summer is a pretty darn good sample of warmest weather personally.  We are much more likely to see frost/freeze in September than June too.

June/July/August are certainly the warmest months of the year average wise at all local sites.

 

11 hours ago, tamarack said:

June 12-Sept 9.  91 days would end on Sept 10; 92 starts on June 11.

We are much more likely to see frost/freeze in September than June too.

Very true.  I've had 32 or below in 5 of 21 Junes, most recently 2007, though there have been 33s and 34s since then (a 34 last month.)  Only one year, 2011, failed to get down to 32 or lower in Sept, with first frost (a doozy - 25°) on 10/6.  Have had frosts/freezes from 9/1 to 9/30 the other years.  (Last Sept's was on the 2nd.)

Now the Iowa Environmental Mesonet did a post a while back on the coldest 91 days, to define when spring officially begins across the country. Our climate puts us in a similar position to northern MI (cold lakes delaying the start of spring). Now it's not a perfect proxy for summer weather, but if you take their plotter for the warmest 91 days for APN (they don't have this plot available outside of the Midwest), you get Sept 8th as the end of summer.

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Great Snow 1717

Great Snow 1717

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

You never give a good reason why you enjoy this. Only catch phrases and slogans. 

He doesn't understand the meaning of achievement. There have been hotter summers than this one but he's trying to spin this summer into a torrid summer and it just hasn't been one.

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J.Spin

J.Spin

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

You never give a good reason why you enjoy this. Only catch phrases and slogans. 

LOL, what I’ve never understood is how the DIT can simultaneously proclaim his love for the dews, HHH, and all that, and then simultaneously be the install king.  Aren’t AC units specifically created to produce the exact opposite of the type of air that he loves so much?  Are the AC units ever actually used, or are they simply installed for show, to impress the neighbors?  Is everyone being duped on the install thing?

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

LOL, what I’ve never understood is how the DIT can simultaneously proclaim his love for the dews, HHH, and all that, and then simultaneously be the install king.  Aren’t AC units specifically created to produce the exact opposite of the type of air that he loves so much?  Are the AC units ever actually used, or are they simply installed for show, to impress the neighbors?  Is everyone being duped on the install thing?

He hardly steps foot out in the HHH just sits next to his Davis on his phone posting while the AC is on blast. Kid never posts how he ran a mile at 4pm in a 92/75 day because.....he never has. It’s all for show, clown.

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Juliancolton

Juliancolton

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

LOL, what I’ve never understood is how the DIT can simultaneously proclaim his love for the dews, HHH, and all that, and then simultaneously be the install king.  Aren’t AC units specifically created to produce the exact opposite of the type of air that he loves so much?  Are the AC units ever actually used, or are they simply installed for show, to impress the neighbors?  Is everyone being duped on the install thing?

I don't disagree with the sentiment but this argument in general sort of falls flat... it's like how detractors of winter think they have the ultimate "gotcha" when they ask how you can like cold weather and still wear a jacket outside.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
11 hours ago, JustinRP37 said:

I do love how so many people view an agenda with warming. Most scientists, like myself, are not super wealthy people hoping to change everyone's lives. We collect and analyze data. Unfortunately, things get taken out of context and changed all the time. I focus on the blacklegged tick, a tick which has been moving further and further to the north, and higher on mountains to the south. However, one of the biggest issues that most do not even think about is our largest global carbon sink, which is our oceans. Just like basic chemistry, when you release CO2 into a controlled environment with water, some of the CO2 will dissolve in the water. This forms carbonic acid. That is one reason why even seltzer water is acidic. And how do you carbonate a beverage? You release more CO2 into the bottle forcing the CO2 into the water. This is a natural process. But our oceans are huge buffers and have experienced a pH decrease from 8.2 to 8.1, which might not seem like much, but it is a logarithmic scale, so this is actually a 25% increase in the acidity. This can harm corals, shellfish, etc as they cannot form their shells and structures properly. National Geographic had a great article on this last year: https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/oceans/critical-issues-ocean-acidification/. It is also something that is starting to be noticed by different fisheries throughout the world. Humans are by far the most intelligent creatures to ever roam this planet. I do believe we have the means to develop technology that will enable us to continue to live in the lifestyle we have become accustomed to, but at a much more eco-friendly level. Just look at the advancements we have made with lighting and MPG in cars over the last decade (not to mention aviation). My prior research was in acid-mine drainage remediation from abandoned coal mines in Appalachia, which has come a long way, but it is a very costly endeavor. I will always be thankful for the abundant clean water that our region has. 

Anyways, back to a humid week soon! I think we are all getting use to the dews this summer, so much so that a 66 degree dew feels "refreshing"!

We the progenitors of this mess still avail the acumen to reclaim/restore ... many of the damages.  As you intimate .. the problem isn't the wherewithal.. it's the "wantwithal".   

I have a friend who is a tenured PHD at Harvard University. She and I have engaged in this discussion. Her peers often muse among themselves or opine in quorums.. the problem is entirely cultural, not technological.  Maybe one day technology can be the hero for the former ... but, that's a different discussion.  Technology isn't the problem though ... I guess in a lot of ways there is similarity to the present popular debate about whether it is the gun that kills people, or the person pulling the trigger.  Interesting.

Philosophical quandary aside... it is unsettling, that there is enough alternative technologies to all but completely remove any fossil fuel combustion for the purpose of producing the electrical power industrialized societies need; yet, one's eyes keep moving across these drooling headlines about tapping the arctic for these volatile compounds... now that the climate has warmed and it is getting easier to access those environs... Yay!  That's the only problem... accessibility- phew!

It's mind-boggling the disconnect. It is alike en masse-sociopathy really.  The inability to connect actions with consequence, both morally and logically like that... that's the definition of a sociopath at the individual level.

So...what then must we call the phenomenon where millions if not billions are doing the same thing?  Perhaps there needs to be a new definition in abnormal group theory/dysfunction - who knows.  But it matters, because that, right there, is the problem.

It's hard to not to throw one's hands in cynicism, but hyperbole amusement aside  .... the problem really is education. But deep, visceral enlightenment ...from acceptance to action, about our species as proven formidable natural force on this planet.   

A five-year old child is not really an unrepentant psychopath, just because he/she got a hold of dads magnifying glass and chases ants around the sidewalk.  See, we can mold an individual in a life time of lessons ... but the whole of Humanity's existence is measured in thousands of years. Does that mean we have to wait some proportional amount of that total time span for us to 'get it'?   Maybe... But, we don't have that kind of time - we've ended up on a catch-22 ledge with this debate.  That's what we are...as a species...for all our conceits... somewhere in adolescence. But... we may not have time for this adolescence spelled out over Millennia ... to become adult.  

Anyway, attempting some semblance of pragmatism and objectivity, the task at hand facing all the industrialized cultures of the planet is a complete reconstruction of attitudes, one that is unfortunately, seemingly insurmountable.  How to move the ballast of human ways and means toward a perspective that is not entitled over Nature, when it may very well even be instinctual to exploit it. 

************************************************************

pretty glaring heat wave on these 00z runs... wow.   GFS MOS has many D4+ numbers in the mid 90s, which some 12 over climo in a product that's sloped/biased out in time.   

 

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