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July Doldrums - Summer in full effect Pattern and Model Discussion

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

No different than may 17

Sure. I'm not saying it's drastic or anything...just that I'm noticing the change beginning. Most of it is due to the thickly overcast mornings, but I notice it in the evening too when the birds go in to roost. 815 they're calling it a night rather than 845 at the solstice.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

This next heat wave will probably be the 2nd of the two main acmes ...

 I've noticed some past summers that we tend to get two of these, with the sag in between. I don't know if there's any statistical significance or truth even to that it's just something I've noticed from personal experience-certainly seems that way. 

Should put 6 to 10 days of more obvious positive departures with a bit more of an obvious heat pulse in there somewhere… The other side of which we start the long slow arduous journey towards fall.  Caveat is that they could last longer than that… Unknown. Sometimes you can get a third acme too  but once you get past mid August you're losing some insolation. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Sure. I'm not saying it's drastic or anything...just that I'm noticing the change beginning. Most of it is due to the thickly overcast mornings, but I notice it in the evening too when the birds go in to roost. 815 they're calling it a night rather than 845 at the solstice.

Yeah  my lifestyle is such that I just haven't noticed it yet. I leave the house at 6:30 in the morning and by 745 in the evening I'm usually plunked down on the sofa doing supper or evening projects or whatever and I don't really pay attention. When the darkness encroaches on either end of that time range I'm sure I'll come in here and b!tch about it ha ha. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Actually opened up the indows and shut the AC for the first time since...Saturday night? I forget.  Not really dry, but temps below 70 and dew isn’t insanely bad

 The dry push  was actually kind a weak with that dying front coming through today… The fact a lot of machine guidance push us to do. Close to 70 again tomorrow before bit more important CA kicks in tomorrow night… But even if it is attenuating some but it should be  drier in sat. 

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, dendrite said:

69/67 here...just came in. It  felt like we had a cold front or something. Heavy, heavy shallow fog developing though.

What sucks is I'm really starting to notice the loss of daylight. The past few morning when I get up at 530am I've needed a light in the kitchen. Sucks.

Noticed it tonight for the first time as the sun set. My after work chores, feed the dogs, then go for a dip routine was pretty dark for the first time this pool season. 

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wxmanmitch

wxmanmitch

Posted
Posted
12 hours ago, JustinRP37 said:

As a vector-borne disease scientist it is shocking to see how vectors and diseases are changing/moving as the climate is warming. The best example I give is my main study organism, the blacklegged tick (aka the deer tick). We have been monitoring its northward progression for awhile now, and it is truly is amazing to see. This tick seems to really be affected by winter weather. It does not do well with brutally cold and dry winters. On the flip side, it also does not do well with warm winters. While I have always been into the weather, studying climate really became a focus during the second year of my PhD program when we first noticed that patterns of activity had changed from our historical averages.

Do you think there's any correlation between the presence of oak trees and ticks? From my own observation, where there's oak, there's ticks because acorns are a preferred food source of the primary deer tick vector, the white footed mouse. I have no oak trees within a several mile radius (not that I'm aware of) of my location and I've yet to get a tick here. Of course that doesn't mean that there aren't any, it may mean that the tick population is less dense in the highlands. The woods here are dominated by a mixed spruce/fir and maple/birch/beech forest.

I also wonder if the duration of the snow pack has any bearing on tick populations? Snow pack here typically lasts from early/mid December to mid/late April, although it persisted into the first of May this year. 

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tamarack

tamarack

Posted
Posted
8 hours ago, wxmanmitch said:

Do you think there's any correlation between the presence of oak trees and ticks? From my own observation, where there's oak, there's ticks because acorns are a preferred food source of the primary deer tick vector, the white footed mouse. I have no oak trees within a several mile radius (not that I'm aware of) of my location and I've yet to get a tick here. Of course that doesn't mean that there aren't any, it may mean that the tick population is less dense in the highlands. The woods here are dominated by a mixed spruce/fir and maple/birch/beech forest.

I also wonder if the duration of the snow pack has any bearing on tick populations? Snow pack here typically lasts from early/mid December to mid/late April, although it persisted into the first of May this year. 

If there's an oak correlation, I think it's secondary (warming climate helps oaks and ticks) rather than due to acorns as rodent food.  Very few oaks in my neighborhood (most highgraded out in past cuttings) and plenty of ticks.  A co-worker got ticked several years ago in Moose River (twp north of Jackman) and there are essentially no oaks there.  Long duration snowpack protects those small rodent vectors, and as Justin replied to my earlier post, it doesn't take a huge depth of snow cover.  Your higher elevation and cooler climate are probably the major factor, IMO.  Also, pics of your forest type suggest good pine marten habitat, and they live mostly on mice and voles (plus the occasional snowshoe hare bonanza.)

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JustinRP37

JustinRP37

Posted
Posted
9 hours ago, wxmanmitch said:

Do you think there's any correlation between the presence of oak trees and ticks? From my own observation, where there's oak, there's ticks because acorns are a preferred food source of the primary deer tick vector, the white footed mouse. I have no oak trees within a several mile radius (not that I'm aware of) of my location and I've yet to get a tick here. Of course that doesn't mean that there aren't any, it may mean that the tick population is less dense in the highlands. The woods here are dominated by a mixed spruce/fir and maple/birch/beech forest.

I also wonder if the duration of the snow pack has any bearing on tick populations? Snow pack here typically lasts from early/mid December to mid/late April, although it persisted into the first of May this year. 

There are a few studies that suggest two years after a mast year the nymphal tick population is higher, but in our studies we have never noticed it. It might be a secondary correlation as tamarack said. I think a bigger issue in the highlands is how early it can get cold and stay cold. But just to clarify the snowpack insulates the ticks themselves in the soil. I haven't studied how rodents do with snowpacks, but it might be a good study as well. Where we have seen the blacklegged tick population is north up through the valleys. Montreal now has locally sustained populations as well. So, the deer are the place where this species of tick reproduces. Think of a deer as a singles bar. The male ticks basically mate with as many females as possible, while the female is having her blood meal. The rodents are the primary host for the immature stages, the larvae (which are coming out now) and the nymphs (which have been out since late April through now). The rodents are also the reservoirs for the majority of the diseases carried by this tick. It is interesting in just how many weather variables play into this tick and disease cycle. Some of which are completely confounding, like one year there were lower Lyme diseases cases, but an average year for ticks. Well, upon looking at more data, almost every weekend that year was raining through late June. Most likely less people went out hiking, camping, etc leading, most likely, to the lower cases. I think that is what draws me to this tick as a study organism. It is a lot like the weather, so many moving variables and we learn a little more about them both through great science. I guess maybe we should talk ticks though in the banter thread as this does not follow any models, but the Asian longhorned tick we now have loves this high humidity, so at least something loves these dew points! 

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mreaves

mreaves

Posted
Posted
23 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

There are a few studies that suggest two years after a mast year the nymphal tick population is higher, but in our studies we have never noticed it. It might be a secondary correlation as tamarack said. I think a bigger issue in the highlands is how early it can get cold and stay cold. But just to clarify the snowpack insulates the ticks themselves in the soil. I haven't studied how rodents do with snowpacks, but it might be a good study as well. Where we have seen the blacklegged tick population is north up through the valleys. Montreal now has locally sustained populations as well. So, the deer are the place where this species of tick reproduces. Think of a deer as a singles bar. The male ticks basically mate with as many females as possible, while the female is having her blood meal. The rodents are the primary host for the immature stages, the larvae (which are coming out now) and the nymphs (which have been out since late April through now). The rodents are also the reservoirs for the majority of the diseases carried by this tick. It is interesting in just how many weather variables play into this tick and disease cycle. Some of which are completely confounding, like one year there were lower Lyme diseases cases, but an average year for ticks. Well, upon looking at more data, almost every weekend that year was raining through late June. Most likely less people went out hiking, camping, etc leading, most likely, to the lower cases. I think that is what draws me to this tick as a study organism. It is a lot like the weather, so many moving variables and we learn a little more about them both through great science. I guess maybe we should talk ticks though in the banter thread as this does not follow any models, but the Asian longhorned tick we now have loves this high humidity, so at least something loves these dew points! 

Thanks for your string of informative posts.  For whatever reason, I rarely find ticks.  Maybe the decimation of rodent population around my house by my cat is part of the reason.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
On ‎7‎/‎26‎/‎2018 at 12:04 PM, Ginx snewx said:

Winter lovers move away from the city if you can.

http://www.weathernationtv.com/news/look-effects-urban-heat-islands-cold-weather/

 

23 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Isn't this old news?

It's a newer study, but I do feel it is just confirming what we already know...urban heat islands will mute the cold during arctic cold shots. We talk about it in a non-empirical way on here all the time..."oh that west wind for Logan airport is usually not great for cold since it comes right off the downtown heat island...usually NNW wind is better"....stuff like that.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
22 hours ago, dendrite said:

Sure. I'm not saying it's drastic or anything...just that I'm noticing the change beginning. Most of it is due to the thickly overcast mornings, but I notice it in the evening too when the birds go in to roost. 815 they're calling it a night rather than 845 at the solstice.

I've definitely noticed it in the evening.  We used to have what seemed like 1-2 hours of twilight weird lightning...like the sun went down but it never got fully dark until like 10pm.  You could go to a movie at 7:30pm and come out at 9:30pm and it still seemed light enough to do just about anything.  People golfing past 9pm with sunset at 8:40pm. 

I really love the extended daylight...for some reason I get so much more accomplished during the day.  It's still light late but you can tell its going the other way.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

  In downtown Greenfield and just had 10 minutes of some of the heaviest rain I have ever seen.  Now the sun is back out.

apparently not a drop up at my house 5 miles away.

 

Drove from CT back up to Stowe and passing through your area on 91 around the time saw some highly variable weather.  Crazy how localized that stuff is, especially when driving on the interstate and can cover ground quickly.  It would go from a sea of brake lights and torrential rain (wipers on high couldn't even keep up) to the sun coming out and pretty much dry ground in a matter of minutes...then start all over again.  Dry cars heading north, while approaching traffic coming south is soaking wet and with wipers on high as they come out of it, then you round the bend in the interstate and get slapped with massive rain drops falling vigorously.

 

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
13 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

It's a newer study, but I do feel it is just confirming what we already know...urban heat islands will mute the cold during arctic cold shots. We talk about it in a non-empirical way on here all the time..."oh that west wind for Logan airport is usually not great for cold since it comes right off the downtown heat island...usually NNW wind is better"....stuff like that.

Exactly.

No harm in presenting the article...I was just saying..

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Drought is here.  1.97" MTD of which 1.57" fell on 2 days.  1.14" on July 6th and 0.43" on July 17th, and 0.36" over the last 11 days.

Dewin the dews still here as well.  72F.

Brian A. Posted this lol he lives near New Bedford 

IMG_20180728_073928.jpg

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