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July Doldrums - Summer in full effect Pattern and Model Discussion

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
23 minutes ago, weathafella said:

D6-16....a torrid GFS run.

It's added to the growing body of support ...yeah.

I still don't see much SW ejected air mass getting entangled in that but... we may be nearing a threshold..

The shear/weakness axis in the nation's midriff is closing/filling ever more. Eventually that dam will crack through that and we may see some of that western type kinetically charged air getting into the circulation down wind...  

As is in this run we're safe at 850s in that 18C range

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
25 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

As climate changes... there is far more than a single species that scurries from the breakdown of their native ecological systems ... - not just Humans. 

There's on going spirited debate in both scientific circles, as well as those seeking to use it as leverage for political gain (which only makes the truth of it ever more obfuscated...) that the Syrian crisis is in part climate change attributed. The gist of which is, the majority % of their economics is/was agrarian -based, and as such... the last ten years of drought has taken a particular tax on the stability in that part of the world.  It has affected, and ultimately ...effected change there... etc ...etc.. 

Whatever the cause in human parlance for the mass migration out of Syria ... reviewed biological science/ecologist across the board agree that species migration is a real problem related to climate change.

There are plenty of peer-reviewed/refereed sciences out there about that subject matter, among which ... the legit concerns surrounding pathogens hitching a ride along with relocating flora and fauna. These can be particularly virulent in the new settings, because the target regions may not and most likely do not have evolutionary built in 'checks and balances' ... including, native immunology. They can be naked with nothing in place to counterbalance the invasion.   

This whole climate change thing...it's a black box threat... a big black Pandora's boxed threat ;)   As it is cleaved open by the abstinent disregard of the on-going dominant, entitled species of Terra forming azzholes on this planet ... out will crawl far worse than hot summers and violent storms... 

How about a cocktail-holocaust ... 

you mean humans actually adapt? Actually Syria had much worse droughts in its history but facts have a way of getting in the way of things. I have never seen anyone post so many end of world scenarios as you lol. Sci Fi channel level stuff

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JustinRP37

JustinRP37

Posted
Posted
39 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Thanks for the additional info, especially the inch-or-more factoid.  As for the 40° activity threshold, that may be selling them short.  It's been a couple years since I brought home deer ticks after hunting for deer in November, but some of those "infestable" days never reached 40.  of course, I sit on logs rather than in a tree, so maybe my butt warmed the microclimate sufficient to wake them up.  ;)

Yeah the 40° mark might be a bit warm, but it is a an easy number. Either that or maybe they came off the deer? Once on a host, they don't care about the temperature. Either that or like you said your butt woke them up! They never cease to amazing me though. Once we learn one thing about them, it just opens more doors to discovery, even after all the years of research.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
53 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

you mean humans actually adapt? Actually Syria had much worse droughts in its history but facts have a way of getting in the way of things. I have never seen anyone post so many end of world scenarios as you lol. Sci Fi channel level stuff

"..Actually Syria had much worse droughts in its history but facts have a way of getting in the way of things." - I'm not sure who you are directing that toward, and/or why... but, just in case it was me: I only stated there is debate.  I did not/do not wish to take sides, at least not from my current exposure to the geopolitical "facts" in that matter.  I only brought it up because it certainly "could" be connectable to climate change, and is thus an interesting scientific study ... Possibly a present day first hand account/scenario that fits an example of species migration do to the former.   

As far as the science fiction back handed insult... hey, I'm a science fiction writer - so there you go :)  ...You shouldn't allow yourself to get too swept away and emotionally charged by the rhetoric and hyperbole of the internet. 

This is just a diversion? I've noticed over the years that you have a peculiar way of personalizing and or acting insulted toward people when there was nothing in fact actually targeted toward you personally.  There is no content in social media that is worth the BP meds dude -

There are plenty of proven cogent scientists of multiple disciplinary science background in the world, who will tell you that the present course of humanity is not sustainable...and that is true in the preclusive sense - the beauty about that is, it is true whether you believe it or not.  

 

 

 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

I wonder if those lower DPs get in here over the next several hours...

Hi res vis loop shows dramatic clearing over western zones... and this is edging E.  Meanwhile, places like ALB and SYR have DPs crashed to 62!   That's gonna be like a different world after this immersion we just came through... if it gets here.  

 

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

They tweeted out Upton with no mention of East Douglas, curious

I don't think there was anything really sinister about it. The first reports came from Upton - then they got more reports from Douglas. Once they went back and looked at the low level rotation tracks (and saw the TDS) they came up with a game plan for where exactly they were going. 

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tamarack

tamarack

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, JustinRP37 said:

Yeah the 40° mark might be a bit warm, but it is a an easy number. Either that or maybe they came off the deer? Once on a host, they don't care about the temperature. Either that or like you said your butt woke them up! They never cease to amazing me though. Once we learn one thing about them, it just opens more doors to discovery, even after all the years of research.

Unfortunately, in those tick-catching seasons I neither tagged a deer nor got particularly close to one.  Sitting on logs/stumps for a couple dozen hours over the season does offer lots of opportunity for any ambulatory ticks, however.

 

There are plenty of proven cogent scientists of multiple disciplinary science background in the world, who will tell you that the present course of humanity is not sustainable...and that is true in the preclusive sense - the beauty about that is, it is true whether you believe it or not.  

Not sure what "preclusive sense" in the bolded phrase is intended to mean.  I'd add that fairly recent history (say, from Malthus forward) has often stated words to the effect that "the present course of humanity is not sustainable", and so far whatever process/problem was being referenced has been at least partly overcome.  This history in no way should be taken as a license to wreck ecosystems.  The situation might be likened to a nice buck in Maine's November woods.  He can successfully elude hunters 20 times, but if he slips up on the 21st, he's freezer bound.  Better we should work harder at practical means of shifting our energy sources from fossil fuels to renewables, than to encounter that "21st hunter", a problem we cannot overcome.

 

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
44 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

I don't think there was anything really sinister about it. The first reports came from Upton - then they got more reports from Douglas. Once they went back and looked at the low level rotation tracks (and saw the TDS) they came up with a game plan for where exactly they were going. 

i guess my point might be, they didn't realize it from radar

Logan right now

DjDnOLxUcAEFOyp.jpg

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Unfortunately, in those tick-catching seasons I neither tagged a deer nor got particularly close to one.  Sitting on logs/stumps for a couple dozen hours over the season does offer lots of opportunity for any ambulatory ticks, however.

 

There are plenty of proven cogent scientists of multiple disciplinary science background in the world, who will tell you that the present course of humanity is not sustainable...and that is true in the preclusive sense - the beauty about that is, it is true whether you believe it or not.  

Not sure what "preclusive sense" in the bolded phrase is intended to mean.  I'd add that fairly recent history (say, from Malthus forward) has often stated words to the effect that "the present course of humanity is not sustainable", and so far whatever process/problem was being referenced has been at least partly overcome.  This history in no way should be taken as a license to wreck ecosystems.  The situation might be likened to a nice buck in Maine's November woods.  He can successfully elude hunters 20 times, but if he slips up on the 21st, he's freezer bound.  Better we should work harder at practical means of shifting our energy sources from fossil fuels to renewables, than to encounter that "21st hunter", a problem we cannot overcome.

 

it means...literally, to prevent the presence, existence, or occurrence of; make impossible:  in the "sense" of humanities presence, the present course precludes their own success..  

At not point prior to the last 100 years has humanity been so proficient at doing just that - so saying so far over come is almost to the point of being illogical as a comparison.  

The problem is, we are just at the doorstop of what all this means ... Waiting to see what comes through that door? Mmm... seems there is a catch-22 ...sort of paradox, in that the evidence people need to wait and see, unfortunately means it is too late. 

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

"..Actually Syria had much worse droughts in its history but facts have a way of getting in the way of things." - I'm not sure who you are directing that toward, and/or why... but, just in case it was me: I only stated there is debate.  I did not/do not wish to take sides, at least not from my current exposure to the geopolitical "facts" in that matter.  I only brought it up because it certainly "could" be connectable to climate change, and is thus an interesting scientific study ... Possibly a present day first hand account/scenario that fits an example of species migration do to the former.   

As far as the science fiction back handed insult... hey, I'm a science fiction writer - so there you go :)  ...You shouldn't allow yourself to get too swept away and emotionally charged by the rhetoric and hyperbole of the internet. 

This is just a diversion? I've noticed over the years that you have a peculiar way of personalizing and or acting insulted toward people when there was nothing in fact actually targeted toward you personally.  There is no content in social media that is worth the BP meds dude -

There are plenty of proven cogent scientists of multiple disciplinary science background in the world, who will tell you that the present course of humanity is not sustainable...and that is true in the preclusive sense - the beauty about that is, it is true whether you believe it or not.  

 

 

 

Lol its the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine. Personally think its the sharknados that get us but thats just my opinion 

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tunafish

tunafish

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I wonder if those lower DPs get in here over the next several hours...

Hi res vis loop shows dramatic clearing over western zones... and this is edging E.  Meanwhile, places like ALB and SYR have DPs crashed to 62!   That's gonna be like a different world after this immersion we just came through... if it gets here.  

 

Looks like a big old COC tease

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
30 minutes ago, PowderBeard said:

The 68* dew point feels refreshing right now. 

69/67 here...just came in. It  felt like we had a cold front or something. Heavy, heavy shallow fog developing though.

What sucks is I'm really starting to notice the loss of daylight. The past few morning when I get up at 530am I've needed a light in the kitchen. Sucks.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

69/67 here...just came in. It  felt like we had a cold front or something. Heavy, heavy shallow fog developing though.

What sucks is I'm really starting to notice the loss of daylight. The past few morning when I get up at 530am I've needed a light in the kitchen. Sucks.

No different than may 17

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