July Doldrums - Summer in full effect Pattern and Model Discussion

[Typhoon Tip]

The Euro's complexion for the extended is damn torrid... 

Has a WAR resurged ridge a bit more favorably placed with 19C 850 mb common throughout a deeply well mixed cT flow...   Jerry flow haha

So let's see...  we got, Bahama Blue, Blue Bombs, and Jerry flows  (a.k.a, the prostate pattern).

 

[weathafella]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The Euro's complexion for the extended is damn torrid... 

Has a WAR resurged ridge a bit more favorably placed with 19C 850 mb common through a deeply well mixed cT flow...   Jerry flow haha

So let's see...  we got, Bahama Blue, Blue Bombs, and Jerry flows  (a.k.a, the prostate pattern).

 

Dribble dribble...

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

You can pretty much punt the first half of Aug for any resemblance of a decent looking COC. 

[weathafella]

2 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

You can pretty much punt the first half of Aug for any resemblance of a decent looking COC. 

I bet there are some embedded days with roosters.  A day here, 2 days there..etc.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, weathafella said:

I bet there are some embedded days with roosters.  A day here, 2 days there..etc.

Here a coc k.. there a coc k .. everywhere a coc k coc k

[powderfreak]

18z GFS is basically two weeks of constant moisture flow out of the south.

 

[Damage In Tolland]

9 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

18z GFS is basically two weeks of constant moisture flow out of the south.

 

 Can you remember a dew wave like this one?

[HoarfrostHubb]

9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

 Can you remember a dew wave like this one?

2004, 2005 of thereabouts?

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

 Can you remember a dew wave like this one?

I’d rather surf the crimson one at this point.

[Ginx snewx]

23 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I’d rather surf the crimson one at this point.

I take the under on 12 to 14 inches of rain in WCT

[#NoPoles]

Up to .07. Plymouth and eastward really getting screwed. Lawn is getting crispy. I lost my snap dragons

[FRWEATHA]

3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

 Can you remember a dew wave like this one?

I seem to remember a few in the 80s. Big retrograding WARs with hi dews and Bahama blues. I remember driving from here to CT. one year went  from Bahama blue to pouring retrograding frontal rains. Maybe someone old enough can remember what years exactly?

[OceanStWx]

3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

 Can you remember a dew wave like this one?

Didn't we just do this in 2013? BDL was like over 10 straight days of lows > 70. 

You were wild with excitement.

[Damage In Tolland]

Man radar to the south of LI is juiced. Today is setting up for a real frog strangler. Gonna be some big SNE totals in places 

[Baroclinic Zone]

12 hours ago, powderfreak said:

18z GFS is basically two weeks of constant moisture flow out of the south.

 

Unfortunately the current one didn't pan out here.

[Ginx snewx]

8 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

Didn't we just do this in 2013? BDL was like over 10 straight days of lows > 70. 

You were wild with excitement.

STMLDTTMCB    short term memory loss due to too many craft beers

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Downpours on ride in. Monsoon at work now. Just an awful stretch with no end in sight. Anyone who enjoys a summer stretch like this needs to Aaron Hernandez themselves immediately.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Downpours on ride in. Monsoon at work now. Just an awful stretch with no end in sight. Anyone who enjoys a summer stretch like this needs to Aaron Hernandez themselves immediately.

I'll take this any day over the 6 day 90F+ heat we had.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

20 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

I'll take this any day over the 6 day 90F+ heat we had.

Deciding on what is less worse is not the same as cheering, praying, and being excited for it. Maybe it hasn’t been bad out that way but it’s been torcher here. Crap mornings with couple hours of midday sun then crap afternoon and evenings. I’ll have mushrooms practically growing inside the house soon, and not the fun kind. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

17 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

I'll take this any day over the 6 day 90F+ heat we had.

The rain has kept me out of the pool.  Still blasting the AC due to humidity.  

I think I would prefer the heat and sun vs the constant threat of rain

[Ginx snewx]

30 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

The rain has kept me out of the pool.  Still blasting the AC due to humidity.  

I think I would prefer the heat and sun vs the constant threat of rain

Yea thats pretty awful to want rain muggy and no sun

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Yea thats pretty awful to want rain muggy and no sun

 

The only good that will come from this is 9 months from now....new additions to families across the region. 

[Hoth]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Man radar to the south of LI is juiced. Today is setting up for a real frog strangler. Gonna be some big SNE totals in places 

Eh, we'll see. I have a feeling Death Valley's reputation is going to be earned yet again here. Good luck up there!

[Typhoon Tip]

Ding dong the witch is dead ... or dying anyway - 

This particular era of WAR is presently breaking down. Things are going to change during the short term here...as in, over the course of these next 4 hours.   Think wet. 

We "lucked out" so to speak yesterday and the day before - it was well-anticipated to do so, and the WAR retrograded enough to situate that interface/instability axis back west.  Much to many's chagrin, Kevin not only gets 100% of the credit for that...  (as in, we were all merely dopey helmet and drool cup by-standers while he graced us with his insights...), but he may in fact have actually physically forced all that to set up by his own shear free will... 

Pretty amazing really... 

But, seeing as the ridge is now deflating some...back east comes said axis.  

What's interesting is that the trough doesn't really progress eastward with the relaxation of the ridge, however. This sort of makes it problematic as to how much of actual house clearing type fropas will be available to this flow construct as we close out the week.  We could labor quasi frontal features ...sort of paralleling the flow and collocated with training tropical goop.  Some of the global numerical models do finally squeeze in a dry fart out there around 120 hours.. There may be a narrow window of substantially drier DPs around that time. But, already the flow appears to roll-back, with the ridge (WAR) reloading. Rising heights expand back over the EC/NE regions by D6 ... and most tools agree that is a legit geopotential signal.   Of course, far enough out in time that who knows what form of warm departures that will bring.   The Euro shows an eternal shear axis extending N/S roughly 100W, which mechanically is like a spigot that clamped off, and thus E of that ~ longitude is being protected from having to suffer EML/ kinetically charged western heat ... while at the same time, witnessing near historic heights overhead.  It's like this summer's been about that all along - creating illusions of grandeur and than working the idiosyncrasies to fail potentials.   

The GFS on the hand ... it's got some 22 C pulse way out there is day-dream time frames... 

[Baroclinic Zone]

29 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Yea thats pretty awful to want rain muggy and no sun

 

I've only had 0.18" of rain in the last 8 days.

[dryslot]

Stay safe out there and have all Ark preparations near completion.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

5 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

I've only had 0.18" of rain in the last 8 days.

If only we can get this type of qpf distribution 5 months from now. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Deciding on what is less worse is not the same as cheering, praying, and being excited for it. Maybe it hasn’t been bad out that way but it’s been torcher here. Crap mornings with couple hours of midday sun then crap afternoon and evenings. I’ll have mushrooms practically growing inside the house soon, and not the fun kind. 

My last 8 days

84/82/87/80/81/86/86/82

Like I already said, I'll take what we have now over the 95/97/92/92/98/90 type stuff where the DPs are around 70F and HI are in the low 100s we had earlier this month.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

6 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

My last 8 days

84/82/87/80/81/86/86/82

Like I already said, I'll take what we have now over the 95/97/92/92/98/90 type stuff where the DPs are around 70F and HI are in the low 100s we had earlier this month.

Yea. Temps are not the issue though. Here, it’s been swamp butt dews and rains. I guess you lucked out with minimal rain though. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea. Temps are not the issue though. Here, it’s been swamp butt dews and rains. I guess you lucked out with minimal rain though. 

Yup.  Only 1.79" for the month.