July Doldrums - Summer in full effect Pattern and Model Discussion

[dendrite]

These things are usually stubborn and we're entering the climo dog days. I'd lean toward the 3ply for awhile.

[dendrite]

21 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I never posted about the WAR being dry with drought from it . Not once. This weekend was supposed to be wet and where has the axis of heavy rains been? Over us or west? 

Maybe you're right...too busy to look back. My rooster got too frisky with a hen and took a 2" x 1" chunk out of her skin so we're kinda scrambling to heal her up.

[powderfreak]

53 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I never posted about the WAR being dry with drought from it . Not once. This weekend was supposed to be wet and where has the axis of heavy rains been? Over us or west? 

I thought you were on the rains well west train too... you and Forky were pretty adamant about that at one point.  Ridge builds in so far west it keeps things dry.  Doesn't matter, forecasts are meant to change.  Ideas get thrown out all the time.

[Damage In Tolland]

30 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I thought you were on the rains well west train too... you and Forky were pretty adamant about that at one point.  Ridge builds in so far west it keeps things dry.  Doesn't matter, forecasts are meant to change.  Ideas get thrown out all the time.

How sweaty is the Lake house?

[powderfreak]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

How sweaty is the Lake house?

Just about to leave and drive down but looks like a 3-4 ply week for sure, haha.  

Even up in NVT, dews are in the 70s.  Was just 73/73 +RN.  It's like a steambath outside.  

[CT Rain]

9.69" of rain here in WeHa in the last 30 days. The damaging drought continues. 

[PowderBeard]

Pretty amazing what a few miles can do. Only 0.15 at home in Belchertown, at UMass today I bet we got close to 1.5". 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Maybe you're right...too busy to look back. My rooster got too frisky with a hen and took a 2" x 1" chunk out of her skin so we're kinda scrambling to heal her up.

WAR so far west it skins COCs alive. 

[JWilliam9830]

What does COC mean?

[Hoth]

25 minutes ago, JWilliam9830 said:

What does COC mean?

Chamber of commerce.

[SnowHole413]

57 minutes ago, PowderBeard said:

Pretty amazing what a few miles can do. Only 0.15 at home in Belchertown, at UMass today I bet we got close to 1.5". 

I received 2.06 in Hadley 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, CT Rain said:

9.69" of rain here in WeHa in the last 30 days. The damaging drought continues. 

Is Sugarloaf at your place ?

[HIPPYVALLEY]

The forecast had me regretting taking some vacation time on the Cape this week but bluebird day here while Greenfield got an inch of rain.  Tomorrow looks sunny and comfy!

[alex]

This weather reminds me of upslope. Heavy shower, broken clouds, drizzle, shower, and so on. 

[powderfreak]

4 hours ago, CT Rain said:

9.69" of rain here in WeHa in the last 30 days. The damaging drought continues. 

Wow.  That's insane.  I feel like we are under 3" in that time.

[HoarfrostHubb]

This is just disgusting.    Hopefully Friday works out.

[Sugarloaf1989]

6 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Is Sugarloaf at your place ?

You're an idiot pure and simple. 

[Damage In Tolland]

3 hours ago, Sugarloaf1989 said:

You're an idiot pure and simple. 

I think if you met me you’d like me and we’d be really good friends. 

[Sugarloaf1989]

3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I think if you met me you’d like me and we’d be really good friends. 

I just don't understand you're not believing my rainfall totals? What's the problem?

 

 

[HoarfrostHubb]

ORH has had 3.9” this month and has a surplus of 0.81”.     

I’m guessing (based on pool and occasional gauge readings) that I’m over 5” for the month.   

Just missed a nice thunderstorm to my west

[Damage In Tolland]

18 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said:

I just don't understand you're not believing my rainfall totals? What's the problem?

 

 

I believed you. I never once said I didn’t. You were in a lucky zone. You down to Ryan’s area have been the qpf jackpot this summer 

[ineedsnow]

1 hour ago, Sugarloaf1989 said:

I just don't understand you're not believing my rainfall totals? What's the problem?

 

 

My pool is about to overflow we been getting it good here

[Tom12309]

Interesting how the rain is distributing.  Albany airport recorded something like .7 inches, 6 or 7 miles west in my back yard the gauge had at least an inch more than that and if you went ten miles west it was three inches or more.  If you were in one of those north-south alleys the rain was lined up in you got doused and if not you were kicking up dust. 

[butterfish55]

My pool is about to overflow we been getting it good here

Just added some to mine....we hardly gotten anything

[Baroclinic Zone]

3 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

ORH has had 3.9” this month and has a surplus of 0.81”.     

I’m guessing (based on pool and occasional gauge readings) that I’m over 5” for the month.   

Just missed a nice thunderstorm to my west

1.80" here.  Luckily with the moist air, it's keeping things relatively green.

[Sugarloaf1989]

Just had a downpour move through sandwiched between sunshine. 0.07" from that rainfall..

[HoarfrostHubb]

So Florida-ish.   Been a while since we have had a system like this around here

[Hoth]

Given the persistence of this blocky pattern, you have to wonder about the possibility of tropical entanglements as we move forward and the season heats up a bit. 

[Typhoon Tip]

30 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Given the persistence of this blocky pattern, you have to wonder about the possibility of tropical entanglements as we move forward and the season heats up a bit. 

I've mused to self and allowed on this site in the past about these Bahaman patterns and why there never seems to be a hurricane really timed with this sort of set up.

Forky mentioned 1938 may have been ... but I "think" that was different in that a closed low near the axis of the Apps did a capture scenario - in way, a bit like Sandy down to brass taxes. 

Anyway, it may simply be a numbers game; and in fact ...I lean that way.  We don't get this sort of bona fide rail service from the tropics that often.   We also don't get 'canes situated that often either.  

It's like ( Not often + even less often)/2 = a pretty fleeting chance those two would ever concurrently share contention in the same space and time..  heh. 

I suppose if that is true, one day there will be a pattern of this ilk, with Category 4 hurricane ...oh, 100 nautical miles E of Nassau turning it's eyes N like Rancor turning attention to Luke in 'Jedi -

I was reading about some mud-core studies that were done at the head of Narra. Bay in RI... Up the Chesa. down in the MA and other estuaries along the EC for that matter...that suggested catastrophic single deposition events took place....well before much of humanity ever set foot - including in some cases ...native Americans.  These could have been storm surge freak events.  They could have been been tsunamis - unknown...  both of which can happen in rare yet sufficient energies around the faux impression of quiescent Atlantic Basin.  Those are Pacific problems - right ?  

[Hoth]

16 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I've mused to self and allowed on this site in the past about these Bahaman patterns and why there never seems to be a hurricane really timed with this sort of set up.

Forky mentioned 1938 may have been ... but I "think" that was different in that a closed low near the axis of the Apps did a capture scenario - in way, a bit like Sandy down to brass taxes. 

Anyway, it may simply be a numbers game; and in fact ...I lean that way.  We don't get this sort of bona fide rail service from the tropics that often.   We also don't get 'canes situated that often either.  

It's like ( Not often + even less often)/2 = a pretty fleeting chance those two would ever concurrently share contention in the same space and time..  heh. 

I suppose if that is true, one day there will be a pattern of this ilk, with Category 4 hurricane ...oh, 100 nautical miles E of Nassau turning it's eyes N like Rancor turning attention to Luke in 'Jedi -

I was reading about some mud-core studies that were done at the head of Narra. Bay in RI... Up the Chesa. down in the MA and other estuaries along the EC for that matter...that suggested catastrophic single deposition events took place....well before much of humanity ever set foot - including in some cases ...native Americans.  These could have been storm surge freak events.  They could have been been tsunamis - unknown...  both of which can happen in rare yet sufficient energies around the faux impression of quiescent Atlantic Basin.  Those are Pacific problems - right ?  

Yeah I've looked at some of those sediment studies suggesting big cane hits in the pre-Columbian era. They seemed to imply that a low-end category 4 type strike is feasible in NE, albeit extremely rarely. There are some that believe the 1635 cane may have reached that threshold. Anyway, seems like we've had an unusual amount of blocked up flow this summer, and with disturbances pinwheeling around the base of the OV trough, dipping toes in the GOM or around the southern periphery of the Atlantic ridge, we definitely have to keep an eye out for home-brew over the next few weeks. Not holding out much hope for CV type systems though.