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July Doldrums - Summer in full effect Pattern and Model Discussion

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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HIPPYVALLEY

HIPPYVALLEY

Posted
Posted
39 minutes ago, Hoth said:

GFS was super juiced again. Widespread 8" with lollies to 12" in CT by run's end.

Yeah, you could cut those numbers in half and it's still wet.   I was supposed to be on vacation next week but have the veto proof,  last minute option, of switching to sometime in August and just might do that tomorrow. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
29 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Is time for another NE sst upwelling lesson? With narrow depth of warmth any rough sea wind combo turns over the sea reducing SST. Now if its only a warm frontal brief passage like Tip thinks it won't change much but all modeling has decent gales on the ocean

 

 

 Depends on the wind direction… Towards the coast will accumulate warm surface water away from the coast causes static upwelling because of mass conservation.

As far as turbulent mixing do to the wave action ...that's definitely true but my thing was that I think the water temperature is going to be rising next week when we get into that steady southerly flow. It's going to draw a lot of southerly surface water north. 

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
10 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

 Depends on the wind direction… Towards the coast will accumulate warm surface water away from the coast causes static upwelling because of mass conservation.

As far as turbulent mixing do to the wave action ...that's definitely true but my thing was that I think the water temperature is going to be rising next week when we get into that steady southerly flow. It's going to draw a lot of southerly surface water north. 

Problem being a stout east wind brings in cold water, that mixes, heavy rain further mixes in fresher water then SE winds kick in with heavy sea action. Clouds and southerly gales kick in. Temps can then rebound but it takes longer to absorb more heat.

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tamarack

tamarack

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Lava Rock said:

1" give or take in my hood over the next week. Not sure I can handle that.

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk
 

06z GFS has about 2" thru day 16, pretty much the average here for that period, which would be fine.  Trend has been down for a day or so, with 1"+ for Sunday/Sun night, then scattered bits after that.  MA states still getting sloshed.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Yesterday was *the day*.... max/min of 80/40 for an even 40 degree diurnal swing.  That's how you draw it up when looking for enjoyable weather.  Warm afternoons, crisp nights.

Approaching absurdity just how utopic ... but more the persistence.   Just commented on it, 4 days back to back of cloud free, 83/50 with little or no wind is really pushing it in terms of the fair-day vs stormy quota. 

And it really is kind of like that in a holistic sense ...using that word twice in a day.  But, every year, you get so many good days, so many bad days...and so many in between... and it's like a speeding tickets - if the atmosphere hasn't handed out enough of one or the other, the community gets a bunch off them issued all at once.  Haha. 

If this continues, could be talkin a suspended licence and a f'n court appearance -

It's probably more of an homage to the slowness to change that tends to decelerate everywhere at this time of year...So, in other words, it'll take four or five days to get past this boring stuff... then, the same to get through that southerly fire hose next week/WAR rim exerting from the E... 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, qg_omega said:

This storm will knock down SST significantly, I would be shocked if this is overcome by the persistent southerly flow for next week.  

Mmm, to be fair...  

I was just poking around the Obs/buoy reports at NWS on-line, and every buoy from Nantucket Sound down to the NY Bite are all pullin' 73 to 75 already... 

There's probably less room for increase than their is for decrease at this point.  If it clouds over and rains, we'll less some temperature without doing the SS stressing part of it - so keep that in mind when judging this question over the next several days.  

Said judgment would need to pull each factor out and assess contributions to be legit - otherwise, it's used to abase people on the web with cutting insight and razor sharp scientific wit, I know - 

Kidding of course... But, I could see the water dropping 2 to 5 F, then, with a graceful yet persistent southerly flow of rich warm DP and kinetically warmed air... the surface temps pop back pretty quick.. High DP air the ocean surface stops a good bit of evaporation, and that helps quicken the temp recoveries if solar radiation is impinging on the surface water. It's as much about the sun as it is about that turbulence, as it is about the thermal feed backs in the quasi coupling

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
9 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Yesterday was *the day*.... max/min of 80/40 for an even 40 degree diurnal swing.  That's how you draw it up when looking for enjoyable weather.  Warm afternoons, crisp nights.

Today was hot but low dews so another summer classic.

BTV with another Arizona type day with 89/51 for 27% RH this afternoon.  

At MVL we hit at least 87F off a low of 46F, so another 40 or higher diurnal swing.  Sweatshirt this morning to upper 80s this afternoon.  Great summer appeal without sweating while just pumping gas like a couple weeks ago ha.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

This whole ordeal with the Sargasso ridge/WAR encroaching from the E and ultimately ... overtaking NE, has demonstrated some of the most fantastic consistency you will ever see out of a bevy of global numerical models, such as that which has been routine since... Jesus, last weekend?

I think that's when this channel from S scenario began consistently showing up in the guidance...  All week, it really hasn't deviated much.

It's an interesting aspect ... When I was an undergrad, I recall a conversation with Dr. Colby related to 'resident physical signals' in the atmosphere; namely, how the big events tend to show up in the models ...often at lead times that are more normally, exotically challenging to/for any practical operational usage.  Yet, in those rare occasions, they show up ...day 10... even 12 or more... and stick.

There are many examples of this... "Sandy" was air apparent (puns always free of charge...) as much as three weeks by global cues, and then as soon as the ensembles could see it they bit down like a cur on a steak bone onto a scenario that by conventional wisdom was absurd... Yet, they stuck with it... Boom. The whole way.   February, 1978.  March 1993 ...    

This summer, this sort of signal phenomenon seems to be happening with ridges, exposing that it occurs at both ends of the spectrum of total event types.  Notable above, those are cyclone/governing trough mechanic -related.  But in this case, such as the heat wave near the end of June and now this Atlantic ridge retrograde phenomenon, they are both ridge related... And, other than heat... they probably are under the radar taking place, because they are invisible to sensible impact - nevertheless, they've come along with that same sort of predominating signal in the atmosphere way out there leading their verification...  

Anyway, despite the convective happy finer meshed model types ... I wouldn't be shocked if all that shuts down for a time Monday into Tuesday.  Heights are rising from late tomorrow through late Tuesday ... albeit from the E... Unusual as that may be, typically, rising heights mitigates deep layer suspended parcel displacement - i.e, shuts down convection.  There may be local offset enhancers that help overcome that stability inhibition as the ridge cap burgeons overhead ...such as impossible meso convergences along sea and land-based wind interfacing, or like ... lifting 75+ F DPs over ridge lines and so forth.  But, outside of those ... I think that's when we see this 'Bahama Blue' phenomenon take place at its fullest expression. 

 

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Man .. this is a special period we’re in the next 2-3 weeks at least with these high dews . Just unrelenting high , tropical dews right thru Aug 10. This is one I’ll always remember 

What a dew wave 

 

Hats off to you and Jerry exceptional call on the WAR persistence. Orientation looks like lots of wet as we are in the battle zone

 

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WNash

WNash

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It looks so so wet . Can picture shrooms in lawns, blights on plants, and black mold on everything 

Houses sinking into the earth, mangroves along the south shore, gators in every backyard, babies born with webbed feet and hands

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It looks so so wet . Can picture shrooms in lawns, blights on plants, and black mold on everything 

I lifeguarded at the State Beach, never ever closed, waist deep restrictions yea but geezuz what is going on. 

Due to continued high risk of #ripcurrents + expected strong undertow, Misquamicut State Beach is closed today; E. Matunuck, Scarborough, E. Beach, Charlestown Breachway are open, but limited to knee deep swimming. Staff assessing throughout the day. When in doubt, don’t go out

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tamarack

tamarack

Posted
Posted

TD higher now (near 70) than the temp got yesterday (66), and thru 7 AM I'd dumped 0.86" from the gauge, with another 30 dbz patch over the garden about 8:30.  Saturday made 12 sunny/mostly sunny days this month, most I've recorded in 21 Julys.  May not get any more for a while, perhaps not until well into August.

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