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July Doldrums - Summer in full effect Pattern and Model Discussion

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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I don't know about "...Thru August" and/or Kevin's transparent veil of attempted capitalization and never ending profits from a pattern type he seems to covet ... But, at least for about ~ a week (say) from mid weekend onward, those that have recently warned of WAR and it's effectiveness get the cookie this morning... 

Here's a bit of hyperbole I concocted in that hyrbid thread: But by and large this is just a warm blast convulsively exploding N along the coast in respond to one of the most impressive WAR tsunamis I've ever seen.   I mean... jesus with closed 600 DAM heights N of Bermuda, and 594 contouring bursting west like a time-lapse of a pregnant woman's belly, that pattern is a womb for torridity..

By the way, the Euro has 19 to 20 C 850 mb thermal layering over the eastern Lakes and southern Ontario, as all this WAR stuff is established... That ups the stakes a bit as not just a huge DP thing but possibly some continental kinetically charged air getting into the mix.  It's just something to keep an eye on.  Could be a day in that stretch that gets the 92/77 done ... Whether that happens or not ... this looks like 85/76 to 78 for days in the 00z model blended pattern.  

Except I tossed the GGEM... I don't think it's tapping it's feet to the right cadence of the wind right now...with that attempt at autumn while all this is happening in every other guidance source known to have been created by man ... god I love that model!

  

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dendrite

dendrite

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7 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Will have to step up the neem oil treatments over the next week or so to hold of the chances of white powdery mildew and black mold in this upcoming tropical environment.

Have you had success with that wrt aphid control? They're sucking the life out of my avocado trees.

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mreaves

mreaves

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22 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Will have to step up the neem oil treatments over the next week or so to hold of the chances of white powdery mildew and black mold in this upcoming tropical environment.

I'm going to have to get ear plugs to mute the sound of the ground soaking up the rain.  Its been so dry around here, any measurable amount will be appreciated.

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dryslot

dryslot

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48 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Have you had success with that wrt aphid control? They're sucking the life out of my avocado trees.

Yes, If treated and they try to feed on the plant, Once consumed they die off, I also dust treat with sevin dust as well and find dead cuke beetles lying on the leafs of the plant as it seems like i have the most problems with the cucurbits family.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Keep in mind... this is not raining all the time everywhere...  not in this synoptic evolution - no.

This is likely to be convective training ...perhaps an initial slug with the warm frontal "fist" that is more pervasive -sure. But ...once the boundary's through ...and that kind of 'laminar' flow with unidirectional transport of Bahama type air mass kicks in... there will be bright blue tropic sky sun in between streets of training convection... 

Around D6 or so...if the operational run is correct, we may even see that transmute into more of a stable hot/and excessively muggy day out there ...particularly if that capping inversion associated with a pulse of continental heat does in fact break off and get absorbed into the WAR circulation like that...   

Got to remember, with convective rains of tropical origins... you can rack up 5" pretty quick actually... 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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There was some debate about SSTs around SNE coastal waters over the last week or two... 

Presently ...Boston Light/44013 is 70.7 F ...  not bad for the outer Harbor waters..  

Down along Montauk out to Block Island buoys now 73 F 

So there's an uptick trend ... not sure where these situated with respect to climo but they are on the rise. 

I'm thinking about the pattern next week...with a deep laminar flow through the troposphere around a massive WAR high... toting long shore gradient the whole way...  I figure 76 to 77 F is pile-up plausible by the end of next week .. Say 10 days from now, that could be a balmy beach water temp across S facing coastal locals.    I mean ... that's what I'm imagining... I can offset that science fiction with rain cooled this and cloud cover that... but, I don't think SST works that way when you have flow paralleling the coast all the way up from very warm sources..  

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NorEastermass128

NorEastermass128

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20 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

There was some debate about SSTs around SNE coastal waters over the last week or two... 

Presently ...Boston Light/44013 is 70.7 F ...  not bad for the outer Harbor waters..  

Down along Montauk out to Block Island buoys now 73 F 

So there's an uptick trend ... not sure where these situated with respect to climo but they are on the rise. 

I'm thinking about the pattern next week...with a deep laminar flow through the troposphere around a massive WAR high... toting long shore gradient the whole way...  I figure 76 to 77 F is pile-up plausible by the end of next week .. Say 10 days from now, that could be a balmy beach water temp across S facing coastal locals.    I mean ... that's what I'm imagining... I can offset that science fiction with rain cooled this and cloud cover that... but, I don't think SST works that way when you have flow paralleling the coast all the way up from very warm sources..  

I think we're about 10 or so years away from regular summertime 80F Boston Harbor water temps...

 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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13 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

I think we're about 10 or so years away from regular summertime 80F Boston Harbor water temps...

 

Lol...  10?   ... I say 30, and it's razor thin ... One NW flow day away from it being 68 again... 

I've always imagined a 'cane turnin corner down way and careening up right on the heels of a pattern like next week, where the shelf waters are unusually warm. I mean I've seen Montauk buoy 81 before.. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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11 minutes ago, tamarack said:

If the coast gets serious wind from the Sunday system, SST warming will have to start over.

? 

how so ... 

oh...I think you mean turbulence/over-turning?   Mm, maybe ... but the deal on Sunday (imho) is not a "storm" per se. 

It's a weakly closed curvature along a fluid/viscosity differential between the low resistant jet max riding N sea-side of the relative BL drag effects over land... 

Some saw that and assumed it to be more than it is ... I could be wrong, and... truth be told, it is possible that something goes ahead and develops that's more important than mere inflection in the pressure contouring just to smite this idea I'm presently writing about (haha) but for now... I don't see that as a system that upwells much. In fact, it starts the warm sea surface transport engine 

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