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July Doldrums - Summer in full effect Pattern and Model Discussion

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
28 minutes ago, dendrite said:

You miss my point. I'm not doubting that. My point is that it looks like a much wetter pattern (wouldn't take much) with plenty of Glasgow Grey days too. I actually think we're arguing the same thing now since you've embraced less of a torch look and more of a wetter/dewier one.

I never said anything about Aug torch. Posted numerous x about high dews , less heat, south flow.. all the posts are there to see. I just argued those that were calling for nW dry cool flow were not reading pattern correctly. That’s it

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Hoth

Hoth

Posted
Posted
37 minutes ago, dendrite said:

You miss my point. I'm not doubting that. My point is that it looks like a much wetter pattern (wouldn't take much) with plenty of Glasgow Grey days too. I actually think we're arguing the same thing now since you've embraced less of a torch look and more of a wetter/dewier one.

Glasgow grey :lol:

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted
23 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I never said anything about Aug torch. Posted numerous x about high dews , less heat, south flow.. all the posts are there to see. I just argued those that were calling for nW dry cool flow were not reading pattern correctly. That’s it

You were clear the war would dominate Aug and high heat high dews would prevail to close out summer. I posted the war has a short lifespan/affect of a week maybe before being shoved away. If after that the heat comes back, which one would have to guess it would, it’s because the West ridge expands east and we get into sw flow Texas heat....not because bermuda changed its coordinates.

Just imo, though, we debate we discuss...all good my HHH weenie. 

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

You were clear the war would dominate Aug and high heat high dews would prevail to close out summer. I posted the war has a short lifespan/affect of a week maybe before being shoved away. If after that the heat comes back, which one would have to guess it would, it’s because the West ridge expands east and we get into sw flow Texas heat....not because bermuda changed its coordinates.

Just imo, though, we debate we discuss...all good my HHH weenie. 

He had less heat, but he was banging the drought drum..."droughtstein18"

So he apparently backed off of that.

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted
23 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I forget what you consider hot. 96? 98?

96+.  Nice initial push of 594 heights westward over the eastern US next week per GFS.  Recedes some but still keeps all of us 582+ before  it probably roars back again beyond d9-10.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Jesus ... I'm thinking 88's hot ...  wow you guys. 

96 ?  I mean, we can go ten years without throwin up a 96 ... but rack 'em up at 94 ... those weren't hot?  

Too many rules - weird.   

Sides, 87/78 is hot - anyone that says other wise is sellin' something as the cliche goes.  

I guess if we really want to get excruciatingly Aspergery about it... 87/78 is just as hot as 96/60  ... say something like that.  

I actually always liked the idea of using the H500 geopotential heights metric... but, as this summer has routinely shown, you can get bigger than normal gaps between the thickness depths and the heights inside which they can expand.  It sort of hides what that metric could mean.  In other words, we've sustained heights at times that really could have loading up ERs but we're still getting lucky ...  We went some seven summers without a realy bona fide sort of mega eastern anomaly...so having had one is probably like ... "half" successful...  But, my hunch is that when/if one of these balloons takes place and we actually have 580 thickness inside of it, we are going to tap into the GW new tier like they have in France and Australia in recent summers and it will be shocking.   

I mean, Will was right ...that heat wave was impressive but it was kinda like 'standard candle' extreme.  We really could have blown the lid off historic numbers with four consecutive days of 594 to almost 600 DAM heights...  93 though?  Shirked, period - 

But I digress... subjective of course.   

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

in any case ... no question that the overnight runs put a patina on the facade of the mid and extended range that is warmer ... not cooler

It's not 'hot' per se ( ...yet) .. but, that CC tweet excerpt above is precisely on point imho. I said so a couple/few days ago...this has a Bahama Blue look to it.  It's about on climo for that sort of deep troposphere S conveyor thing btw.   

The other thing is that the GFS operational runs are also trying to bump the 588 dm heights west of New England out there, which could put a warmer wild-card in there yet.  

I don't know precisely who said what or what the collective/meme popular voice is up this point ... but just going forward with any kind of perspective at all .. I gotta go minimum normal and more like above by some unknown margin, with a burgeoning DPs beyond... Sunday or so... 

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, dryslot said:

Pretty refreshing NW wind today, Could take a whole summer of this, Who wants 90/70's, That's what the south is for.

Agreed, just left Louisville this morning,. Hot and humid, though it did feel good to break out of cold AC.

50 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

only blues are going to be the people who enjoy the outdoors without getting wet, geezus what a disaster, days and days of rain

index.png

Get your he umbrellas,  I’ll be in SFO until next Friday so I’ll miss it.  That said, I’d like to be home.

passed a really high cumulonimbus as we were crossing the Rockies an hour ago.  I wonder Whst the underside of that was like.

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tamarack

tamarack

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

passed a really high cumulonimbus as we were crossing the Rockies an hour ago.  I wonder Whst the underside of that was like.

In April nearly 25 years ago I was on a flight from Cincinnati (temps in 80s) to Omaha (40s), and observed a SW-NE line of discrete cells stitched across Indiana.  Pilot took us between 2 with little fanfare, and their tops were many thousand feet above our altitude, which was mid-30s.  Later I heard that a TOR had caused fatalities in southern MI that evening.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Don't get use to it...

What's getting ready to set up may take quite a while to break down.   

Yeah certainly won't be a lot of these cool, crisp nights coming up. 

70/41 right now but it feels primed to lose like a quick 20-degrees in like 3 hours, like a vacuum sucking heat out of the mountain valleys as insolation wanes this evening.  

We do need rain though, I think the surface dryness is feeding back a bit in drying out the air masses and we aren't getting the nightly fog we seem to get most summers.    

Edit: 9F drop in the first hour after sunset,  windows slamming shut.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah certainly won't be a lot of these cool, crisp nights coming up. 

70/41 right now but it feels primed to lose like a quick 20-degrees in like 3 hours, like a vacuum sucking heat out of the mountain valleys as insolation wanes this evening.  

We do need rain though, I think the surface dryness is feeding back a bit in drying out the air masses and we aren't getting the nightly fog we seem to get most summers.    

Edit: 9F drop in the first hour after sunset,  windows slamming shut.

My ground was still wet when I came home from work today, excellent drink

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