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July Doldrums - Summer in full effect Pattern and Model Discussion

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Keep in mind... that west Atlantic ridge isn't a self determining object in the atmosphere.  ...It's there, because the surrounding circulation vagaries at hemispheric scales promotes it's existence.

It's sort of a misnomer that these features "retrograde" ? They do tend to move backward relative to the flow.. but, what's really going on is that there is a backward propoagating 'resonance' (poor definition) in the atmosphere that is repositioning the locations for their emergence, backward relative to the flow ... as it goes..

One facet that leaps out for me is that the trough the mid/ext range model trends have been managing over the Great Lakes is only significant in the 40th parallel through the 576 - 588 DAM differential... That's a range in tropospheric depths where has situated heat waves in the past.  It's an interesting example of relativity in synoptic weather.  You have trough nadirs that are really still at or even above normal heights as teleconnections for areas that are truly skynormous ... Thus, the base-line is above normal...everywhere - at least over N/A mid latitudes.

I've never seen this kind of pervasive 594+ circumstance... it's almost enough to suggest something strange is going on.  Oddity aside, with that circumstance I sense that we getting exquisitely lucky we are not suffering for it by timing better heat. In the physical sense ... the T part of the hypsometric equation is causing unusual gaps between the thickness and heights... 594 ..? .We should be seeing 582+ over a much vaster area than we have seen.  That heat wave we had really only scratched the surface what could "fit" inside those heights...

 

 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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As far as the "WAR" ( ...between those that want to admit it or not...) goes ..

It reminds me of a prelude (maybe) to one of those 'Bahama blue' patterns.

It's term I coined years ago, for when a deep layer southerly flow forms on or near-by the EC pointed S to N.  It's more typical in August into early September..but I've seen as early as late June before.  Anyway, the sky becomes azure pure in between white turrets that whisk along and with torrential quick showers under them.  Sometimes they organizing in training narrow streets. 

Satellite loops will see the flow over the eastern Gulf of Mexico turning NNE near Florida...while east of Florida ...the same but turning NNW... These streams will converge along or off the Carolinas and accelerate straight up ...transporting those troposphere's up our way.  It's how we get a bona fide tropical sky this far N...  Dps can run 74 to 76 F, but temperatures usually don't get much higher than 87 or so.  

One thing I've never seen ... when one of these patterns orients its self, there's never a 'cane down there that is vulnerable to getting sucked up that conveyor.  'Canes seem to only approach the Bahamas when we have to time things perfectly with other large scale preventatives...

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forkyfork

forkyfork

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15 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

One thing I've never seen ... when one of these patterns orients its self, there's never a 'cane down there that is vulnerable to getting sucked up that conveyor.  'Canes seem to only approach the Bahamas when we have to time things perfectly with other large scale preventatives...

1938

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wxeyeNH

wxeyeNH

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16 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

1938

Just looked at the 12Z Euro.  Has quite a July storm coming up the East Coast next weekend.  Virginia to Central NYS.  1002mb.  Almost looks like the typical winter  inside runner with the primary in the Great Lakes.  Guess this is the pattern you would want to yank a tropical system up the coast?

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weathafella

weathafella

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43 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Just looked at the 12Z Euro.  Has quite a July storm coming up the East Coast next weekend.  Virginia to Central NYS.  1002mb.  Almost looks like the typical winter  inside runner with the primary in the Great Lakes.  Guess this is the pattern you would want to yank a tropical system up the coast?

Gene, that’s a warm core system on the euro.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Yeah..there's a boundary in the area... Clearly this can be denoted by vis satellite... it's sort of an ocean breeze/BD hybrid, but it's rollin' west over the worcester hills down our way.. It's 93/70 W of that feature, and mid 80s/64-ish here, which is tolerable. 

WPC hasn't been analyzing this feature, which has been semi permanently locked in the area the last two days.. now today again.  Fully expect dense g-fog/morning strata again in the pooling.. Their PP layout has us in deep SW flow right up to Maine - ..their resolution is annoying sometimes. 

 

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