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July Doldrums - Summer in full effect Pattern and Model Discussion

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I beg to differ but lets see the hemisphere play out, july 13 is very similar to July 18 by the way. Huge signal for change in my eyes. but time will tell

I agree with the change but I am pretty confident that W.A.R. will have a fairly sizable influence.   One thing I am flummoxed about is winter 2018-19.   I see no signal yet.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I agree with the change but I am pretty confident that W.A.R. will have a fairly sizable influence.   One thing I am flummoxed about is winter 2018-19.   I see no signal yet.

Really ...  

   ...with a clear and present CIPs modality in the ENSO toward warming in the key NINO sectors, that's no signal - interesting. 

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Really ...  

   ...with a clear and present CIPs modality in the ENSO toward warming in the key NINO sectors, that's no signal - interesting. 

If we go weak nino we probably have a good winter (for the snow fans) but I’m not convinced we don’t either fail at that or the opposite and go too strong.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, weathafella said:

If we go weak nino we probably have a good winter (for the snow fans) but I’m not convinced we don’t either fail at that or the opposite and go too strong.

Meh...maybe... more than less agree with this sentiment -

Frankly (you didn't ask so I'm force feeding at the moment...) but I've always believed that the ENSO was too "weighty" in seasonal outlooks/factorization - 

A position I somewhat felt vindicated for having some years ago, when NCEP began finally admitting in their seasonal outlooks come autumns that regions from the NP-GL-OV-NE are essentially wild cards that are too prone to the vagaries of the polarward indices, which cannot be very well anticipated at extended leads... 

Ding ding ding... 

So, I don't really get into linear ENSO --> yummy or yucky winter statements too well. But that's just me :) 

When I just eye-ball the data though ... I see our better winters (in terms of action - not speaking just snow cocaine emotions here...) "tend" (that's tend ...I'm not claiming nothin')  to take place when the ENSO is > -.5 or < +.5 ...  with the AO and concomitant EPO and NAO's then supplying the cold ...as the disconnected influence/modulator.

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I wish!  I’m on no notifications and I get an e-mail.  I even deleted tapatalk to no avail.

Weird. I tried saving your profile through admin-cp, but you're correct that it seems you have everything properly turned off.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Maybe likely but nope.   Not like I haven’t been doing this from day 1....

The only thing I see in your profile when I go to edit it is something turned on called "enable status updates"....not sure what that is. Brian probably knows....maybe it has nothing to do with the emails you are getting, but I thought I'd throw it out there. I didn't touch it FWIW.

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

The only thing I see in your profile when I go to edit it is something turned on called "enable status updates"....not sure what that is. Brian probably knows....maybe it has nothing to do with the emails you are getting, but I thought I'd throw it out there. I didn't touch it FWIW.

That's just a status update for your profile IIRC. All of his email notifications wrt posting are set to off.

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nzucker

nzucker

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

All models agree the extreme heat is situated over the west. Some of It spews east every now and then like early next week but eastern canada is relentless squashing any sustained attempt to ridge east of the Miss river. Great summer pattern. 

12z ECM builds a nice trough into SE Canada with sub 0C 850s over Hudson Bay towards the end of the run. Could be on track for a similar pattern as 2013 with the scorching first half of July, then cooler weather late July/August. Of course the strength of the WAR will determine how far east that cooler airmass makes it.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

81/43 yesterday and again dipping into the 40s this morning.  Pure joy being outside all day in this summer weather.  

I'll echo the sentiments that it's dry.  Definitely some browning out on the sports fields and these next two weekends we have 100+ teams coming to town for the Bitter Lax Tourny.  One of the largest lacrosse tournaments in the state, but man do those fields need some rain.  Haven't got any orographic help lately either with at least storm initiation like most summers.  

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