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July Doldrums - Summer in full effect Pattern and Model Discussion

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
On 7/9/2018 at 12:44 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

The official ASOS stations are torching . We were told to toss Davis readings 

Good to see you remain consistent.  The Davis temps are too cold so use the ASOS, but the ASOS dews are too low so use the Davis ones.

The dews in the 40s were particularly brutal in CNE/NNE today

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Posted

The weekend appears split to me... with better heat potential Sunday, much less Saturday.

In fact, those two days may end up being rather polarized in the synoptic sense. With vestigial near shore/western Atlantic mid level gyre ...tunneled down deeply enough in the troposphere to cause a tongue of cold 850 mb jet to wrap around the western arc ... it will greatly effect the temperature potentials from NYC to D.E.M. ...  'Cold' being a relative term of course, on Saturday.  But we discussed this a few days ago... that any 'heat wave' from the weekend onward would be predicated on the controlling influence of said gyre ..it would appear that's still the limitation. 

Sunday is interesting... the day downs with about 1 hour's worth of that lingering cool pool left in the wake of that, but by noon there is a very pronounced 7 to 9C burst in temperatures at 850 mb nosing all way to the coast.  The GFS even has a diffused warm boundary with convection firing off 18z or so... across central NE and may even dive SE if organized and sort of cause said boundary to pack slide if that happened... a contingency/digression.. 

Barring something like that, the day would end differently than it began... The Euro and GGEM both also have similar plumes of warm 850s surging in during the day...  

So anyway... Saturday should be 82 to 70 west to east across SNE ... then, Sunday would support upper 80s (and probably a dew point surge), but it's unclear how much contamination ... 

The flow is sort of less than traditionally structured for heat early next week.  At a quick eye-shot .. it's troughy looking over SE Canada, with some cyclonic curvature subtending down our way... Often enough in on-going Meteorological observation we see that that the troposphere can sometimes be 'out of phase' ...?  Ridges can be gutted and empty of meaningful lower level warm thicknesses, ...and/or, in the winter... troughs come along with less cold thickness at the same heights when there were llv arctic shots involved...etc..  This situation has some hybrid continental/SW ejected air rattling around the base of said trough ...and that still supplies some heat into the region.  Heights in the base-arc are still running 582 dm+ (a kind of atonement to a warm canvas perhaps..) so .. there's room for it.  

In the longer term... It seems either the atmosphere is grinding gears in an attempt to get eastern Canada and the N.E. U.S. locked into a perpetual dry NW flow aloft, or... the models are trying to do that. Not sure which... But, should that verify, then we may flip summer closer to normal ...with any abv more like the background GW/decimal thing.  Not sure I buy it but we'll see. 

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
Just now, weathafella said:

So?   Most guidance strengthens W.A.R in the long term.  The only similarity to 2013 is March.

I beg to differ but lets see the hemisphere play out, july 13 is very similar to July 18 by the way. Huge signal for change in my eyes. but time will tell

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