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July Doldrums - Summer in full effect Pattern and Model Discussion

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Posted

Next heat wave potential appears situated in the Monday thru Wednesday time frame of this next week ... the extremeness, notwithstanding. It's been flagged, though with limited enthusiasm...in the bevy of guidance for awhile.

The key will come down to the handling of that mid level circulation the models cut off from this nearer term trough as is is filling in, and/or pulling out ... immediately astride the MA/NE coast/west Atlantic over the weekend.

If that feature cuts in abundance ... we fail a heat wave (most likely)    

If it doesn't ... or is comparatively weak, the models would have to adjust hotter.

The former version .... shears the heat off as though the trough were placed their like some cosmic aegis to ward off the more significant impact of fairly important pulse of continental/SW ejected heat slated to move into the OV during this preceding weekend.  In the weaker and or non-existent block version, said pulse will end up more E and N up throughout the eastern Lakes and NE regions... (talking about the sfc mix layer/850s)

As is usually the case for this far out in time ... the models have been varying among their own trends, and wrt one another re that blocking shear axis left behind over the W. Atlantic..

The Euro's 00z run opted toward less, and right away, it corrected the +18 to +20 C at 850 ...having the plume take resident inroads well into C/E NE... again, Mon-Wed...  Not sure what the ceilings/insolation is at that time. If it's dewy rich, this/that heat pulse doesn't appear as well capped by Venusian ridging ...so, contamination could be more factored.   But, given to the surface PP angling what gradient there is on a general SW trajectory through that period, the former is probably the only limiting fact considering the time of year and climo.

Ranging to the GGEM, which not only blocks heat the whole way... it uses the residual weakness as a momentum for the establishment of a autumn like trough by the mid to end of the week.  Maybe... but not likely... 

I give it a 30% chance for making a heatwave out it for HFD ... ranging to 10% for BOS/Logan...  for the time being.    

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