July Doldrums - Summer in full effect Pattern and Model Discussion

[Baroclinic Zone]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

87 at BDL. Not sure what you’re seeing. Heading for another 90. Wow 

Welcome to 1hr ago.   And that's still not a torch for there.  Bordering on a hot day.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Still sitting at 84F.  I'll take days like this ALL Summer.

[dendrite]

NH beating BDL with heat again.

[Hoth]

90 at BDL in mid-July is a torch? That's like being impressed with a 15 degree day in January.

[weathafella]

BOS hit 90.

[MaineJayhawk]

4 minutes ago, Hoth said:

90 at BDL in mid-July is a torch? That's like being impressed with a 15 degree day in January.

He would be

[Typhoon Tip]

N of the Pike is essentially a well-mixed boundary layer ...vertically and site to site, with an 850 mb about spot on what the adiabat would suggest at the sfc, as well... most sites are about the same at 90 / 59 or 60 this hour.  

You can see some arm waving by the trees out there, so a little bit of gradient evening the race out a bit. 

NAM came with T1 temps 30 C for tomorrow at Logan ... which is good for probably 36 C in the 2-meter should that prevail, given to low ceiling RH values during the morning into early afternoon.  

Not much convection, but a N-door boundary late afternoon... 

[Damage In Tolland]

89 BDL and they have hit 90.

whoa!

[weathafella]

Of course this pales in comparison to last week.  But it illustrates how the pattern is overall warm and I would not be surprised if we rival last week again before summer is done.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

37 minutes ago, Hoth said:

90 at BDL in mid-July is a torch? That's like being impressed with a 15 degree day in January.

Yes, go big...very big all the time. Armaggedon or bust.

[dryslot]

Weather that we tell our grandchildren and then will be able to tell there grandchildren.

[Damage In Tolland]

21 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Of course this pales in comparison to last week.  But it illustrates how the pattern is overall warm and I would not be surprised if we rival last week again before summer is done.

Keep that away from cold crew folks 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

We need rain but offerings look meager.  86F at home.  Springfield must be at or close to 90?

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

We need rain but offerings look meager.  86F at home.  Springfield must be at or close to 90?

CEF 89F

BEF 91F

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, weathafella said:

Of course this pales in comparison to last week.  But it illustrates how the pattern is overall warm and I would not be surprised if we rival last week again before summer is done.

Thats my call but man lots of sigs for a massive cooldown in a couple of weeks.

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, Hoth said:

90 at BDL in mid-July is a torch? That's like being impressed with a 15 degree day in January.

Meanwhile 81 down here at work high of 84

[Hoth]

12 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Thats my call but man lots of sigs for a massive cooldown in a couple of weeks.

Yeah if the MJO moves into phase 6 and the models have a handle on the evolution at 500mb, some cooling would be likely. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Looking forward to those sweet Swells from Chris hitting R.I Wednesday

Ginxy , any guess on Size and Period (looks to me like it may peak Wednesday late nite). I’ll go with 7 feet at 11.8 seconds 

maybe waist high at dawn building to head high by dusk Wednesday. Maybe overhead sets dawn Thursday.

as usual E Mass is completely blocked outside of the Cape

[Damage In Tolland]

With typhoons not recurving in Far East.. look for Midwest triughinh with south flow EC good part of August. Less heat but big dews with warm SST’s.

Couple that with massive ++ AO.. we know how that turns out north of 40

[Baroclinic Zone]

2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Meanwhile 81 down here at work high of 84

Hit 86F for about 15min but for the majority of the day it was 84F.  We take all day.

[Typhoon Tip]

3 hours ago, dryslot said:

Weather that we tell our grandchildren and then will be able to tell there grandchildren.

Mmm, ...yes, how we survived the great ennui catastrophe that occurred during the summer 2018 - heh

[kdxken]

7 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Hit 86F for about 15min but for the majority of the day it was 84F.  We take all day.

 

[kdxken]

9 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Hit 86F for about 15min but for the majority of the day it was 84F.  We take all day.

89 for a high lower 60s dews. All day and all summer we take.

[Typhoon Tip]

Models want to... you can see it... but they keep pulling back every third cycle or so.

The 18z GFS sees the transient ridge now, with that hybrid SW ejected mix layer for late Sunday thru next Wednesday... good for a solid heat wave in there.  Probably mid way between what we are sustaining today and tomorrow, and what happened last week in terms of extremeness... So, on the high end of seasonal but not unseasonal as far as HW's go -

The Euro had that for two day's worth of cycles but ...12z it cut it down to just a day and half out of no where and no continuity ... trying to do the GGEM autumn numskull act  - which I'm sure some in here would wantonly embrace... J/k but no, that trough in SE Canada at the end of that run is less likely in my mind.   Yet, the GGEM now has more transient ridge rolling out of the W, but despite the deep layer unidirectional westerly flow it keeps the 850 warm tongue locked west which makes less fluid mechanical sense given to no resistance...  Usually, when you're standing in the exhaust streamline out the ass end of a Pratt&Witney Jet engine, you'll experience what is actually IN that streamline... I dunno.   It explains why the NAVGEM is doing that despite it's absolute torch extended; because it's integrating that out behavior.  

So... I'm will suggest this is warm pattern overall... We are cooling back in  kind of five over two ratio for warm to cool. Curious if next week evolves hotter ...there's room in the teleconnections for it. That dip in EPO at this time of year could easily spell cooling trend west of 100 to 110 longitude... typically counterbalanced with some sort of proportional response in the other direction in the E. 

 

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

. Less heat but big dews with warm SST’s.

 

Down goes Frazier 

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Down goes Frazier 

Just surface silliness 

[Ginx snewx]

5 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

87 at BDL. Not sure what you’re seeing. Heading for another 90. Wow 

Its was in the low to mid 80s in Tolland all day

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Just surface silliness 

So high dews come from water 15 feet down, which by the way is colder, alrighty then.

[Baroclinic Zone]

6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

So high dews come from water 15 feet down, which by the way is colder, alrighty then.

Hogwash.  It's gets warm the deeper you go because of gravity. 

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Looking forward to those sweet Swells from Chris hitting R.I Wednesday

Ginxy , any guess on Size and Period (looks to me like it may peak Wednesday late nite). I’ll go with 7 feet at 11.8 seconds 

maybe waist high at dawn building to head high by dusk Wednesday. Maybe overhead sets dawn Thursday.

as usual E Mass is completely blocked outside of the Cape

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