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July Doldrums - Summer in full effect Pattern and Model Discussion

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
15 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Some perspective 

Boston July 2013

2013-07-03 91 62 76.5 4.2 0 12 T 0.0
2013-07-04 94 75 84.5 12.0 0 20 0.00 0.0
2013-07-05 95 79 87.0 14.4 0 22 0.00 0.0
2013-07-06 93 79 86.0

 

2013-07-14 93 69 81.0 7.4 0 16 0.00 0.0
2013-07-15 92 74 83.0 9.3 0 18 0.00 0.0
2013-07-16 93 75 84.0 10.3 0 19 0.01 0.0
2013-07-17 95 73 84.0 10.2 0 19 0.00 0.0
2013-07-18 91 76 83.5 9.7 0 19 0.00 0.0
2013-07-19 99 78 88.5 14.7 0 24 0.00 0.0
2013-07-20 96 79

IMG_20180706_183505.jpg

LWM right in line with BED and OWD there.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

LWM right in line with BED and OWD there.

Not to foment another subjective tumult ... but, I wonder what the DPs were in that 2013 stretch - comparative.  Interesting...

Well, for the general reader:  

Short lived natural AC ...  Already, thicknesses slated to rise and exceed 570 dm, within heights that are bouncing right back above 582 ... perhaps 588 by as near in time as late Sunday afternoon.

Interestingly, 850 mb temperatures are presently gutted... rather tepid actually, compared to what typically is occurring with that height and thickness combination described above... However, that also means that under the right conditions, we'd maximize...  Tomorrow appears to be still on the drier DPs ...and with light W or WNW winds ... it has exceed MOS incarnate written all over it.  So figure we'll be in the upper 80s ..but again, relative low DPs to go along with. 

In fact, the ensuing days ... Monday and Tuesday, may reach or even exceed 90 by a degree or two for some, but the DPs won't be anything like what was endured last week - I predict, given to recent acclimation, it will probably spark attempts to discredit the significance of a low grade heat wave (which will be annoying...) haha.

Anyway, the pattern seems to want to stay warmer than normal, the daily extent of which, ...notwithstanding.  The mid range tries to trough over mid latitudes in the E, and probably will succeed to some degree or the other.. But, we really don't see a lot of "cool" air involved with that evolution... more like down to seasonal... then more cues for upward bounce backs.  Heh...D7-10 of the Euro is statically 94-like every day

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not to foment another subjective tumult ... but, I wonder what the DPs were in that 2013 stretch - comparative.  Interesting...

Well, for the general reader:  

Short lived natural AC ...  Already, thicknesses slated to rise and exceed 570 dm, within heights that are bouncing right back above 582 ... perhaps 588 by as near in time as late Sunday afternoon.

Interestingly, 850 mb temperatures are presently gutted... rather tepid actually, compared to what typically is occurring with that height and thickness combination described above... However, that also means that under the right conditions, we'd maximize...  Tomorrow appears to be still on the drier DPs ...and with light W or WNW winds ... it has exceed MOS incarnate written all over it.  So figure we'll be in the upper 80s ..but again, relative low DPs to go along with. 

In fact, the ensuing days ... Monday and Tuesday, may reach or even exceed 90 by a degree or two for some, but the DPs won't be anything like what was endured last week - I predict, given to recent acclimation, it will probably spark attempts to discredit the significance of a low grade heat wave (which will be annoying...) haha.

Anyway, the pattern seems to want to stay warmer than normal, the daily extent of which, ...notwithstanding.  The mid range tries to trough over mid latitudes in the E, and probably will succeed to some degree or the other.. But, we really don't see a lot of "cool" air involved with that evolution... more like down to seasonal... then more cues for upward bounce backs.  Heh...D7-10 of the Euro is statically 94-like every day

Dews were nasty most of July 13 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

I don't speak for August but ....  the present signal from the teleconnections at larger scales are rather warm looking. 

The problem with using them in the summer is that we have to consider the Rossby waves around the hemisphere tend to be shorter in wave length, and that disrupts the typology we think of that is native to DJFM...  

A negative EPO is not likely to evolve into a cold eastern N/A like it would during the winter...and in fact, the signal reverses... because the robuster signal tends to drop modest negative anomalies W of 100W, which in tandem with a strong -PNAP vestige being what remains of the PNA's correlative ability ... we end up with these ballooned eastern heat domes... The operational guidance version seem to be passing through some sort of lull... and if these rangy telecon's maintain, I would almost expect there to be some sort of additional scenario emerging in the runs like we just saw...

When? who knows...  But, tentatively this could be the EC hot summer

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Call me a weenie or whatever... But I'm still not ready to give up on td3.. recon seems to be adjusting sw..and ukie was close to Maine.. it's a long shot but worth watching. 

Ask yourself the question of how a tropical system can sustain itself at our latitude in July with sst well under threshold.

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CapturedNature

CapturedNature

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, weathafella said:

Why aren’t I remembering July 2013?   Weird.....

i do agree with Steve that we basically have a hot July but I’m clueless on August.  Part of me says even hotter.....

We had lots of discussions at the end of the month due to it's "historic" nature.  There were a couple of long stretches of high dew points and high temps like those posted above.

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ineedsnow

ineedsnow

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, weathafella said:

Ask yourself the question of how a tropical system can sustain itself at our latitude in July with sst well under threshold.

I did but.. if it's moving pretty quick a tropical storm could still happen... 99 percent chance nothing will happen..

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Although I guess the GEFS isn’ttoo far off from the EPS. Hopefully this go around we can get more storm action. A capped 23C was brutal to be outside in.

Makes sense ...

Spent time going over indexes earlier and they're quite warm.   The indexes are based upon the GEFS so I don't find that surprising.  The GFS appears presently to be somewhat the cool outlier -

This last heat episode was actually first ferreted out by the operational GFS though ... interestingly

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#NoPoles

#NoPoles

Posted
Posted

After working out in the heat 4 days straight, I'm glad for the break. Thursday night I went to bed and woke up at 2am with leg cramps in both legs. I take magnesium and do well drinking water, but after 4 days in a row of dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s I guess my electrolytes were out of whack...need more salt, or I need to cut my water with gatorade...ya, fun times

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