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July Doldrums - Summer in full effect Pattern and Model Discussion

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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WxBlue

WxBlue

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Blackflies were probably trending down, but mosquitos and mingies (no-see-ums) are at peak - though they avoid the heat.  However, deerflies thrive on it, and I'm sure you were getting firebombed by those beasts.
If you enjoy river canoeing, you might consider the Moose River bow trip next time you're in that area.  For the price of a 1-mile carry (gains about 150' elev before dropping half of that by launching into Holeb) between Attean and Holeb Ponds, one can have a 2-3 day trip that ends right where it begins.

Mosquitos weren't too terrible because of the heat, but flies (especially deer and horse) were very noticeable and awful. We were in mostly upper 80s the whole time (just a guess here... had no service).

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Lol. That’s ridiculous. This was all of interior SNE #1 when you combine temps, dews, duration of dews above 70, 75 etc. Hands down. 

Not even close dude...it was pretty impressive, but it's not #1 for SNE. I don't even think this can beat July 2010...and not Aug 2001 just glancing at BDL's data.

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Not even close dude...it was pretty impressive, but it's not #1 for SNE. I don't even think this can beat July 2010...and not Aug 2001 just glancing at BDL's data.

Yeah it was a tough stretch but there are definitely more impressive stretches locally in the last 10 years. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

We spoke at length about that actually, days ago, that this may not set any daily records ... we called it a "thick heat wave, not tall" because of the longevity ... 

As far as the DP mystery between the Davis and NWS sites: It may be probable that owners of those devices didn't/don't really know about ventilation/placement optimization ...much less calibration if theirs were not tuned/ready out of box and so forth.  Since we can't guarantee those devices are situated properly and so forth, the best thing to do is use common sense and figure gee ..,.that 82 DP is prooobably suspect. 

That said, I am not exactly willing to 'toss' those out as a knee jerk autopilot rejection thing either; because, although they might be situated close to a sultry source (or whatever reason we can imagine to 86 their value), guess what?  That means the person(s) at that site is/are also situated close to that same sultry source, and can feel it. Therefore, it should carry some validity.   So yes and no on the discrediting thing... 

Frankly, if we wanna get down to brass taxes and discrete fairness, you can't really go by NWS as holier than thou, either, as they have their sites often located in unrealistic, non-pedestrian locations that don't bear much environmental comparison to where we all live and reside and so forth...  Logan?  Come on.. KFIT?  Please, that site's located in a tarmac'ed valley, where the wind kadabatically tends to dry from every direction etc..    For that matter, toss ORH then ... I don't personally like "DP" measures where the air mass had to traverse a quarter to half mild of tarmac, concrete, and mortar before getting to sensory system ... but some science of the matter might reveal it doesn't matter... ok.

Without that sort of 'proof' ... no source if probably absolutely ideal...  I suggest that the NWS sites at times stretch the numbers too dry, where the Davis' go the other direction, and the truth probably is some sort of mean of the aggregate - after tossing obvious/common sense outliers.   

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Not even close dude...it was pretty impressive, but it's not #1 for SNE. I don't even think this can beat July 2010...and not Aug 2001 just glancing at BDL's data.

No one is talking temp only though. We are saying combo of heat, record dews and longevity . It’s a stretch we’ve never seen combined for duration 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

No one is talking temp only though. We are saying combo of heat, record dews and longevity . It’s a stretch we’ve never seen combined for duration 

So was I...and you're wrong. I just named two without doing much research.

 

This is definitely an impressive stretch...we haven't seen this in 8 years. But it's not all time record-breaking stuff. I think we managed to set a couple daily high min temp records.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Haha... neither side can ultimately win that thing...

"Heat Index" is calculated using this complicated equation based-upon best estimates ... I think it's a 'multivariate fit' that by nature is ... perhaps within the 80th ...maybe 90th percentile (for sake of discussion; not sure what the real error margin is) of what we all feel.. 

Which means, it has a subjective edge to it that cannot really be removed.  So, if the "HI" is fluttering around 110 at 100 Davis sites and is only 103 at an airport NWS site... that difference probably fits inside the error at either side... And, makes the whole debate kind of meaningless.   1940 could be the hottest ever if going by HI alone...who the f knows.   :)

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

So was I...and you're wrong. I just named two without doing much research.

 

This is definitely an impressive stretch...we haven't seen this in 8 years. But it's not all time record-breaking stuff. I think we managed to set a couple daily high min temp records.

It’s opinion based . But these were record dews. I think you’ll agree 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

In any case ... The 12z models continue to try and roll the ridge back in late in the weekend/early next week.. They are trending that way in inches.  The Euro actually flicks the dragon tongue for 19 or may nicking 20C 850s Monday or Tuesday... 

I'm also not entirely convinced the extended frames have the right tenor there with that flow trying to wend its way into a PNAP structure ...  It may be a thing where they have to correct toward ridge displacements in the mid range... It'll be interesting to see. 

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s opinion based . But these were record dews. I think you’ll agree 

Up here there are stats to support it but how can you call something a record or never seen before, while also saying it's opinion based?  Opinions are very hard to use as record markers.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

this is awesome!  I love this kind of TPC torment...  hahaha

" 

If the initial intensity is uncertain, the future intensity is even
more of a quandary.  Despite being surrounded by abundant dry air,
Beryl has apparently been able to isolate itself and possibly
moisten the near-storm environment while located in an area of low
shear. "
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wxeyeNH

wxeyeNH

Posted
Posted

Day #5 of 90F or above.  Heatwave topped off with a new personal location  high of 95.7F at my house at 1100 feet.  Just missed a nice downpour this PM.  Came so close could hear the heavy rain in the woods 1/4 mile away.  Took a swim in Newfound Lake.  81F.   This ties the highest temp ever recorded by our lake monitoring guy.  Now lets give the region some nice downpours with fropa tomorrow.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Day #5 of 90F or above.  Heatwave topped off with a new personal location  high of 95.7F at my house at 1100 feet.  Just missed a nice downpour this PM.  Came so close could hear the heavy rain in the woods 1/4 mile away.  Took a swim in Newfound Lake.  81F.   This ties the highest temp ever recorded by our lake monitoring guy.  Now lets give the region some nice downpours with fropa tomorrow.

Impressive...the 90+ stretch at 1,100ft in NH and 81F water temp in a Lake up there!

I think NNE took the cake in this one.  

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wxeyeNH

wxeyeNH

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Impressive...the 90+ stretch at 1,100ft in NH and 81F water temp in a Lake up there!

I think NNE took the cake in this one.  

Even on the official Lake Winnipesaukee webpage site, they recorded a 80F water temp today.  It was 71F last Thursday so an impressive 9F jump in a week.  Newfound Lake's warmest water temp is 81F so the big NH lakes are right at record warmth.  

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kdxken

kdxken

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Forget it. You can’t offer any ideas or try and show the record breaking daily dew points without the “by the book” crew 

I hate to lend support to Kevin but today was nasty.  I have worked outside almost daily for the last eighteen years and if there was ever a nastier day I don't remember it .  Temps in the mid-nineties, dews in the upper 70's and those goddamn gypsy moths!  (choose 1080 to get the real feel)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SDh4bHuopkE&feature=youtu.be

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