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July Doldrums - Summer in full effect Pattern and Model Discussion

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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wxeyeNH

wxeyeNH

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A model question.   Is it a given bias that the GFS is too warm for 2m temps?  Since early last week we saw the crazy 105-110F in E Mass.  I thought it would correct as we got closer.  Still even now at 12Z it is still throwing out 106F temps.  It's going to be very hot this afternoon but I can't see more than a 100 or perhaps 101F.  Just rarely happens.  Why is the bias so high?

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Starting to shape up as the hottest day in years ... if not decades for this central/east region of Massachusetts - some stat friendly poster may confirm..

But from where I'm sitting/experiences .. combining 91 to 94 at present hour with a huge density of meso obs purporting DPs of 75, is right up there with the very best, and all indications are...it gets worse before relief this evening...

And slow at that,... as static stability and light winds in the urban centers after this radiation saturation taking place may prove to be a historic diurnal maximum for low temperatures. 

The wild card:  satellite and surface obs do show BD (shallow...) cutting down SW ...about to pass through PWM...  If that gets into the area, that would obviously impose on these assessments.  I don't think it will though...

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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9 minutes ago, dendrite said:

These dews may limit the temp potential.

We've had a lot of clouds at the mountain... temps are no different from yesterday but itsmore humid for sure. 

But the sun can't stay out for more than 1-2 minutes at a time luckily downwind of Mansfield.  I really wanted to get the summit to 80F+.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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9 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

A model question.   Is it a given bias that the GFS is too warm for 2m temps?  Since early last week we saw the crazy 105-110F in E Mass.  I thought it would correct as we got closer.  Still even now at 12Z it is still throwing out 106F temps.  It's going to be very hot this afternoon but I can't see more than a 100 or perhaps 101F.  Just rarely happens.  Why is the bias so high?

 

Good question ...

I'm not entirely certain anyone that frequence/contributes to this particular weather-related social media actually knows the answer to this question.    But, most who do engage and are savvy ... are aware that roughly since the last "upgrade" the model has been particularly abysmal with boundary layer assessments.

In the winter, it kept modeling atmospheres at the surface with huge DP depression during cold/saturated coastal storms... Which made no sense... Like 39/29... with raging liquid rain... It was brow raising...

It's hard to say if this sort of 105 to infinity run-away heating is part of the error causality, but...sufficed it is to say...both have to do with the bottom of the column, so intuitively -

I have poked around a bit on the web; I can't seem to find any specifics dealing with it ... such as, "...WE ARE AWARE OF EGREGIOUS GFS BL BIAS AND THE MODELERS AS LOOKING INTO IT..."   But, it's not realistic to get that either (probably). 

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Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

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6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Starting to shape up as the hottest day in years ... if not decades for this central/east region of Massachusetts - some stat friendly poster may confirm..

But from where I'm sitting/experiences .. combining 91 to 94 at present hour with a huge density of meso obs purporting DPs of 75, is right up there with the very best, and all indications are...it gets worse before relief this evening...

And slow at that,... as static stability and light winds in the urban centers after this radiation saturation taking place may prove to be a historic diurnal maximum for low temperatures. 

The wild card:  satellite and surface obs do show BD (shallow...) cutting down SW ...about to pass through PWM...  If that gets into the area, that would obviously impose on these assessments.  I don't think it will though...

A couple years.  August 14, 2016 it hit 97F here.  Last day I could see comparable.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

A couple years.  August 14, 2016 it hit 97F here.  Last day I could see comparable.

Well... (my bad) ...my focus was combining the T/DP ... 

I've seen 98 to 101 on several occasions, but the DP was always manageable ?   ...say 60 to 65 ... A relative distinction of course, as anything above 95 is f'n hot! 

But, combining them to the tune of 106 to 112 HI's is really a pretty hefty SD anomaly for our boundary layers.   I should have been more specific in that comparison...

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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I think Exc Heat Warning should have been playing over a more comprehensive region...

I'm on hour two in town here in N. Middlesex at 91+/75 DPs which is in the HI ranks ... and we're destined make this condition worse, with additional hours...  Advisory undercuts this significance -

I mean...not that it ultimately matters much.  Most morons can tell the difference between hot and cold stepping out of doors.  But, for posterity and novelty, it would be nice to label this for what it really is...

 

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wxeyeNH

wxeyeNH

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14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I think Exc Heat Warning should have been playing over a more comprehensive region...

I'm on hour two in town here in N. Middlesex at 91+/75 DPs which is in the HI ranks ... and we're destined make this condition worse, with additional hours...  Advisory undercuts this significance -

I mean...not that it ultimately matters much.  Most morons can tell the difference between hot and cold stepping out of doors.  But, for posterity and novelty, it would be nice to label this for what it really is...

 

I agree.  Forgetting the nuisances of a heat index of 96 or one of 102 this feels like excessive heat.  The layperson does not know the difference between a Heat Advisory or an Excessive Heat Warning. This should be a "warning" type day.  Cirrus is melting away over big population centers and sun angle is higher than say in August so today is a big impact day although no Excessive Heat Warning will be issued in areas where most people are.  Just my 2 cents...  Edit,  just realized not even a Heat Advisory for Suffolk County or areas nearer the shore that are showing up in the mid 90's right now

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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5 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

I agree.  Forgetting the nuisances of a heat index of 96 or one of 102 this feels like excessive heat.  The layperson does not know the difference between a Heat Advisory or an Excessive Heat Warning. This should be a "warning" type day.  Cirrus is melting away over big population centers and sun angle is higher than say in August so today is a big impact day although no Excessive Heat Warning will be issued in areas where most people are.  Just my 2 cents...  Edit,  just realized not even a Heat Advisory for Suffolk County or areas nearer the shore that are showing up in the mid 90's right now

They may get expanded...

The other option is to let it ride and take their grapes, then get real about tomorrow instead... That day doesn't look different really -

Tonight's lows are going to be fascinatingly elevated, I wonder - like, downtown Springfield... Or Hartford... Worcester, even ... which is not anything like the Airport

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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8 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Temp is reading 97.2 here with a dew of 75... Just checked wunderground a d someone on my street is reading 98.1 with a dew of 79.. so not sure if my temp and dew is off or there's is. . They are only 10 houses down or so

Mmmm.. yeah, no not so sure those are off.  

We're getting some unusual reading here too.   I have 95, 98 and 102 at three within a mile of home here  in Ayer...  DPs for 75+

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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Just now, wxeyeNH said:

I agree.  Forgetting the nuisances of a heat index of 96 or one of 102 this feels like excessive heat.  The layperson does not know the difference between a Heat Advisory or an Excessive Heat Warning. This should be a "warning" type day.  Cirrus is melting away over big population centers and sun angle is higher than say in August so today is a big impact day although no Excessive Heat Warning will be issued in areas where most people are.  Just my 2 cents...

Honestly the public knows it's hot and knows there's an Advisory for it.  They don't know the difference or even that there are two different types of heat statements.

Its like in the winter, I find most public at the ski resort doesn't know an Advisory from a Winter Storm Warning...just that their phone weather app has some flashing bold storm statement.  They do seem to know that a Blizzard Warning though is the next step up because it has blizzard in the title.

 

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