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July Doldrums - Summer in full effect Pattern and Model Discussion

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Temp still going up.  95.1F  Vis is excellent.  Looking on the SW horizon barely visible  (no one would notice but me)  I can faintly make out the top of the thunderstorm anvil just north of NYC.  That's almost 200 miles away.  

Only up to 90° here. Currently 89°. 

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wxeyeNH

wxeyeNH

Posted
Posted
46 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Only up to 90° here. Currently 89°. 

I am not sure I understand what is happening the past 2 hours.  Temp rose actually got to  95.3F between download points on the graph which I have set to 30 minutes.  Then over the past hour it fell to just under  89F.  Now back up to 93.5F  No clouds, just a gentle breeze all afternoon.  The graph attached showing the 6F swings past 90 minutes.  Maybe if the wind goes calm for a few minutes the ground insolation is making it bounce?  I don't know. 

Untitled.jpg

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, wxeyeNH said:

I am not sure I understand what is happening the past 2 hours.  Temp rose actually got to  95.3F between download points on the graph which I have set to 30 minutes.  Then over the past hour it fell to just under  89F.  Now back up to 93.5F  No clouds, just a gentle breeze all afternoon.  The graph attached showing the 6F swings past 90 minutes.  Maybe if the wind goes calm for a few minutes the ground insolation is making it bounce?  I don't know. 

Untitled.jpg

Is your siting still by your roof? You have a passive shield too so these near solstice sun angles with Bermuda blue skies create some intense radiation. 

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, dendrite said:

Only up to 90° here. Currently 89°. 

Probably hit 92F up here at the ASOS. 

This is the most impressive heat streak locally that I can remember in recent times.  

We've had recent summers that never hit 90F.... now we've hit it 3 times already and popped a 89F and 88F as well.  

Prior to this 85F was the highest temp and it was a very dry heat with dews in the 40s.

Also we usually get Cu or Tcu to bubble up over the mountains in hot stretches that can limit our high temps in the afternoon, being just east of the Spine (the tall clouds over the mountain crests block the afternoon sunlight) which is often how a heat wave elsewhere turns 86F here.  No dice this time around in a well capped atmosphere.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Mm.. MOS products flirt with 90, Monday thru next Wednesday ...

All models have that giant heat dome trying to transiently bulge back into the OV... we may get clipped by the continental stuff again.. But, said 'bulging' doesn't really contain a SW ejection of elevated heat, so unless that changes..the going thinking is a low grade heat wave potential... 89.5 those three days for bootleg 90s... Things can change though -

It's funny.  I've become so accustomed to seeing 594 DM height contouring over such a vast area, that it's like the new standard.  I've been savvy to 'models' for 25 years at this point...  594 DM was always rare.  It seems like it's the new standard at this point ... and what makes it strange is that the atmosphere cools so successfully on Friday with the rim of the 588 DM heights still cutting through central NE ... Seems as though there's like a systemic change, that also requires changing expectations relative to flow structures...  You know ...I was reading, the average heights at 500 mb (the geopotential medium) all over the planet are some 20 DM higher than 1955 ...  (cause and subsequent effect, notwithstanding and I don't wanna go there... just sayn').  Maybe sustaining giant ridges of 594 are getting more probabilistic in such a regime ... hm. interesting.. And that doesn't necessarily mean 110 temperatures just because - 

I tell you it makes longer term assessing on temperature departures harder to get to, because it looks to the dinosaurs of us like it couldn't really cool off much at all ...yet, we're insisting on 78 or so for a high on Saturday...

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Mm.. MOS products flirt with 90, Monday thru next Wednesday ...

All models have that giant heat dome trying to transiently bulge back into the OV... we may get clipped by the continental stuff again.. But, said 'bulging' doesn't really contain a SW ejection of elevated heat, so unless that changes..the going thinking is a low grade heat wave potential... 89.5 those three days for bootleg 90s... Things can change though -

It's funny.  I've become so accustomed to seeing 594 DM height contouring over such a vast area, that it's like the new standard.  I've been savvy to 'models' for 25 years at this point...  594 DM was always rare.  It seems like it's the new standard at this point ... and what makes it strange is that the atmosphere cools so successfully on Friday with the rim of the 588 DM heights still cutting through central NE ... Seems as though there's like a systemic change, that also requires changing expectations relative to flow structures...  You know ...I was reading, the average heights at 500 mb (the geopotential medium) all over the planet are some 20 DM higher than 1955 ...  (cause and subsequent effect, notwithstanding and I don't wanna go there... just sayn').  Maybe sustaining giant ridges of 594 are getting more probabilistic in such a regime ... hm. interesting.. And that doesn't necessarily mean 110 temperatures just because - 

I tell you it makes longer term assessing on temperature departures harder to get to, because it looks to the dinosaurs of us like it couldn't really cool off much at all ...yet, we're insisting on 78 or so for a high on Saturday...

 

7 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

GFS wants to roast us late next week but there is not great model support for that type of heat, the ridging is a little funky verbatim. I'm selling on the mid-90's for Thurs-Sun (7-10 day) 

Next week seems more of a high dew week with a day or 3 that flirts with 90. Once the Great Lakes trough establishes in Aug. , we should be left with s very humid Aug, but not a lot of high heat . Warm SST’s will dew us quite well.

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted

Check out the ocean temperatures nearby up and down the coast.  >70 all of New England and upper 70s and even an 83 in NYC nearby waters.  And signs of WAR trying to join up with mid to west continental ridge as we go deeper into July. 

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
47 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Then so will I.

You thinking 94-95

Yeah...95ish

It’s kinda surreal out there. Yesterday we had the heat and deep blues, but we were able to scour out the haze with the lower dew airmass. Today we still have the heat and deep blues, but the dews are well into the 70s. It really does feel tropical out there with the 95/75 potential without all of the garbage megalopolis haze.

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