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July Doldrums - Summer in full effect Pattern and Model Discussion

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
  On 7/3/2018 at 5:05 PM, weathafella said:

95 st BOS now.

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Good call on today!   Holy hell ... 

It's 95 or 96 at FIT, BED, ASH, EEN and my casa in Ayer... with DPs running 73 to 76...  It's almost tied with two days ago before the marine layer intruded...only this time, we won't be so kindly relieved.  

Anyway, ...you mentioned you thought today would cook ... I was a bit apprehensive about the bigger numbers, based on modeled 850 mb temperatures being slightly slower ...however, it appears ideal open sky and purer insolation may be adding/offsetting.  Plus, with a bit more breeze, we are more proficiently mixing and getting the adiabats more extended. 

See, ...I think two days ago, as hot as was ...felt short of potential. It was 25 C at 850 mb that day and I don't think the BL really got that tall ... but that's speculation...  Today?  No question - 

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ma blizzard

ma blizzard

Posted
Posted
  On 7/3/2018 at 5:15 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

Good call on today!   Holy hell ... 

It's 95 or 96 at FIT, BED, ASH, EEN and my casa in Ayer... with DPs running 73 to 76...  It's almost tied with two days ago before the marine layer intruded...only this time, we won't be so kindly relieved.  

Anyway, ...you mentioned you thought today would cook ... I was a bit apprehensive about the bigger numbers, based on modeled 850 mb temperatures being slightly slower ...however, it appears ideal open sky and purer insolation may be adding/offsetting.  Plus, with a bit more breeze, we are more proficiently mixing and getting the adiabats more extended. 

See, ...I think two days ago, as hot as was ...felt short of potential. It was 25 C at 850 mb that day and I don't think the BL really got that tall ... but that's speculation...  Today?  No question - 

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Really good points made - def need the mixing to realize higher end temp potential and wind/wind direction is key

what could've been if we had mixing more akin to today with those 850 mb temps on Sunday .. 

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KoalaBeer

KoalaBeer

Posted
Posted

97/73 LWM HI of 107. Aren't we in Heat Warning criteria for this area? I thought it was 105? Did someone post the criteria yesterday i'm having a hard time finding it on BOX website. 

Edit: Nevermind found it here - https://www.weather.gov/box/criteria

"Daytime heat indices of ≥ 105°F for 2 or more hours." 

Shouldn't be a problem hitting that here at all. Not sure why an advisory is only in place for western essex county.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
  On 7/3/2018 at 5:32 PM, KoalaBeer said:

97/73 LWM HI of 107. Aren't we in Heat Warning criteria for this area? I thought it was 105? Did someone post the criteria yesterday i'm having a hard time finding it on BOX website. 

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That's going on, marginally, at other NWS sites.. but, enough backyard synced sites are all in the 94 to 97 range with DPs of 75+ to consider the legitimacy of it. 

In NWS' defense they were unsure and mentioned that it was under monitoring.  

As I was just pointing out, 850 mb temperatures have receded some of those bigger numbers from Sunday ..though still impressively warm at 18 to 20C ... Should recent daily trends of milk sky types have prevailed, there's no way we would have done this today. 

As it is/were, the temp of 97 is about nearing the max there...shy of a bounce bootleg 98 or even 99 ... Better mixing today and what appears to be better insolation with less cirrus/debris is helping to over-achieve some and we may actually get a boundary layer taller than 850 - 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

One of the fastest CB head explosions ever near NYC!   ...That's the other thing...we may rock'n roll here over the next two to three hours. Sat shows the remnant frontalysis aligning NE-SW from southern Maine to eastern PA, and along that axis turrets are starting to glow on visible imagery.  

Nooormally I'd say no with near historic ridging enveloping all ... and actually intensifying, but there is micro/meso offsets with unusually proficient CAPE... At some point, you get so saturated you overcome.  

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KoalaBeer

KoalaBeer

Posted
Posted
  On 7/3/2018 at 5:37 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

That's going on, marginally, at other NWS sites.. but, enough backyard synced sites are all in the 94 to 97 range with DPs of 75+ to consider the legitimacy of it. 

In NWS' defense they were unsure and mentioned that it was under monitoring.  

As I was just pointing out, 850 mb temperatures have receded some of those bigger numbers from Sunday ..though still impressively warm at 18 to 20C ... Should recent daily trends of milk sky types have prevailed, there's no way we would have done this today. 

As it is/were, the temp of 97 is about nearing the max there...shy of a bounce bootleg 98 or even 99 ... Better mixing today and what appears to be better insolation with less cirrus/debris is helping to over-achieve some and we may actually get a boundary layer taller than 850 - 

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Thanks for the explanation. I didn't read the forecast discussion from 4:27 AM where they mentioned it but just went back and looked. I wonder if they will update or not. Storms are starting to pop up NW of here so I'm going to say no!

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
  On 7/3/2018 at 5:50 PM, KoalaBeer said:

Thanks for the explanation. I didn't read the forecast discussion from 4:27 AM where they mentioned it but just went back and looked. I wonder if they will update or not. Storms are starting to pop up NW of here so I'm going to say no!

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Yeah... if we exceed the free convective temp the heat's history...  We'd CB head/'vil out the region and also deal with outflows and stuff.. .But, ... it might mean 80 F DPs!

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TalcottWx

TalcottWx

Posted
Posted
  On 7/3/2018 at 4:07 PM, weathafella said:

Here ya go:

https://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_base_dyn.cgi?stn=KBOS&time=GMT

 

Sky bluer, dews dropping on the downslope for now.  We may see big numbers for a high!

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97/69 is up there with any of our hottest days. 

Absurdly hot in Dorchester. UHI makes it so oppressive. 

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TalcottWx

TalcottWx

Posted
Posted
  On 7/3/2018 at 5:48 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

One of the fastest CB head explosions ever near NYC!   ...That's the other thing...we may rock'n roll here over the next two to three hours. Sat shows the remnant frontalysis aligning NE-SW from southern Maine to eastern PA, and along that axis turrets are starting to glow on visible imagery.  

Nooormally I'd say no with near historic ridging enveloping all ... and actually intensifying, but there is micro/meso offsets with unusually proficient CAPE... At some point, you get so saturated you overcome.  

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Florida storms

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